MULTICRITERIA PROGRAMMING OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR RURAL AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to present a multicriteria methodology for decision aid at the stage of programming a water supply system (WSS) for a rural area. The programming stage is an intermediate one between planning and designing water supply facilities, and can be decomposed into two problems: (a) setting up a priority order of water users, taking into account socio-economic criteria; and (b) choosing the best technical variant of the WSS. Among the criteria considered for the latter problem, there is a criterion of distance between the socio-economic priorities of users and the precedence orders of users according to the technical programming, which plays a coordinating role between problems (a) and (b). All steps of the presented methodology are illustrated by a real case study.     

WATER SUPPLY COSTS FOR SMALL PRIVATE UTILITIES1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the cost of water supply for small and mid-sized private water utilities. An econometric approach was employed in which data on utility costs and characteristics were used to estimate a total water supply cost function from which average and marginal costs were derived. The results suggest that although average and marginal costs decline with output, the rate of decline rapidly approaches zero, and unit costs therefore appear to remain relatively constant over a wide range of output. Implications of the results for pricing policy are examined.     

PEAK PERIOD DESIGN STANDARDS FOR SMALL WESTERN U.S. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: In order to determine design capacities for various components of municipal and rural domestic water supply systems, engineers must estimate water requirements for an entire year (water rights), for the peak season (reservoir storage), for the peak day (pump or treatment plant size), and for peak hour (pipeline sizes). Historically, per capita water use rates have varied greatly between systems, particularly in semiarid regions where outdoor demands are large. The resulting uncertainty in design capacity estimates can cause either inadequate capacities or premature investment. In order to minimize that uncertainty multiple regression and frequency analyses were made of the various water demand parameters mentioned above for 14 systems in Utah and Colorado. Specifically, demand functions are reported for average month, peak month, and peak day. Peak hour demands were also studied but are reported in a different paper. The independent variables which were significant for monthly and daily demands were price of water and an outdoor use index which includes the effect of variation in landscaped area and accounts for use of supplementary ditch or pressure irrigation systems. The demand functions were developed with data from systems varying in size from very small low density rural systems to Salt Lake City's water system. The correlation coefficients (R²) vary from 0.80 to 0.95.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.     

MAPS - A PLANNING TOOL FOR CORPS OF ENGINEERS REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: A computer program (MAPS - Methodology for Areawide Planning Studies) has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Waterways Experiment Station to assist planners in producing a comprehensive array of alternatives without sacrificing the detail and accuracy of the analyses. MAPS is a set of computer based models which can be used to simulate the water resource alternatives and to develop planning level design and cost estimates. Two application examples are discussed. The Salinas-Monterey (California) Urban Study sought to identify and determine cost of combinations of water source, transmission, and treatment to meet an array of water needs in future years. The Nashville (Tennessee) Urban Study had similar objectives but the output was prepared on a service area basis for more than 40 such units. Using MAPS it was possible to prepare planning level design and cost estimates for a very large number of alternatives.     

TEMPORARY WATER TRANSFERS FOR DRY-YEAR WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Temporary transfers of water for dry year water supply are analyzed for cost and operational feasibility. The temporary transfer is implemented as part of a water rights option agreement (WROA) between a lesson and a lessee. First, engineering analysis determines the technical feasibility and operations plan under the Colorado doctrine of prior appropriation. The cost of the WROA to a water utility is estimated. Other considerations in the agreement are discussed. The WROA is compared to other dry-year supply alternatives using a water system simulation model to obtain expected cost and operational performance characteristics.     

CONSERVATIONAL WATER PRICING FOR INCREASED WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS1

ABSTRACT: A study was undertaken to see if benefits from water supply could be increased by utilizing price-usage information in reservoir design studies. Three pricing policies were examined. The first policy assumed no price-use relationship, and quantity demanded was based on existing community usage with a low water rate. The price of water was set to recover system costs. A price-use relationship was assumed in the second policy and the water rate was constant. The price of water was determined from the associated system which provided maximum expected net benefits. The third policy assumed the price-use relationship and the price charged for water during each billing period was a non-linear function of storage which increased as the amount of water in storage at the beginning of the period decreased. It was found that the use of the conservation pricing policies substantially reduced storage requirements while providing demonstrable net benefits to the community and a large average supply. The conservation pricing policies substantially lowered the average price paid for water. The effect of uncertainty in consumer response to changes in price was studied by using a probabilistic price-use relationship. This uncertainty did not significantly reduce the effectiveness of the conservation policy. It was concluded that demand management by the use of a proper pricing policy could significantly increase net water supply benefits to a community.     

QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: To assure attainment and maintenance of desired water quality levels in our rivers and streams, systematic monitoring must be performed. A preliminary phase of the design of water quality surveillance systems is the specification of sampling frequencies and station locations throughout the basin; that is, the development of an adequate space/time sampling plan. The purpose of this paper is to present some quantitative methods which have been developed to identify candidate sets of sampling frequencies and station locations, and to establish priorities for implementing the different frequencies and locations. These methods are useful in the cost/effectiveness trade-off analyses in surveillance system design, and are based on the surveillance system objective of pollution abatement in which it is desired to detect violations in state-federal water quality standards. A spatial priority measure is developed which is dependent both on the water quality profile in the stream and on the information obtained from monitoring stations located in other reaches. Also, a temporal sampling priority rating is presented which is a measure of the effectiveness of the surveillance system with respect to its ability to detect the violations in the standards. To illustrate the quantitative methods, the procedures are applied to the Wabash River Basin.     

NETWORK MODEL FOR DECISIONSUPPORT IN MUNICIPAL RAW WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: A water supply network optimization model called MODSIM3 is presented as a decision-support tool for aiding city staff in determining how best to utilize and exchange existing and potential water supplies with other users in a river basin. The model is applied to the City of Fort Collins, Colorado, water supply system as a means of determining optimum ways the City can utilize direct flow rights, storage rights, and exchangeable waters from various sources. Results clearly confirm both the benefits of the use of exchanges and the value of MODSIM3 as a water supply planning and management tool.     

CAPITAL COST OF RURAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: The cost of water service to rural residents is very high compared to urban areas. This is true even after subsidization by Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) loans and grants. Capital cost data on 44 projects financed by the Ohio office of the FmHA during the period August 1968 to January 1977 are used to derive cost equations for 26 components of rural water distribution systems. These components represent 92 percent of the capital cost of the pipeline distribution systems studied. The data can be used to economically design rural water supply systems from a capital cost viewpoint. More data are needed on operation and maintenance costs as well as central and cluster well costs before totally economic system designs can be undertaken.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

A CATALYST FOR REGIONALIZATION OF RURAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: The National Regulatory Research Institute has recommended the merger of small rural water districts in the United States. Success at bringing about merger of these districts, which contain fewer than 3,500 customers, has been highly limited. The subject of this paper is a demonstration project that may act as a catalyst to achieve the desired goal of regionalization. A computerized hydraulic data management program (CHDMP) was developed for a case study in Nelson County, Kentucky. University professors, graduate students, and two water utilities’ staffs cooperated in network analysis employing computer hardware and software. The utilities’ staffs were taught the science and technology of hydraulic model preparation, simulation, and analysis for the case study distribution systems. As an integrated system, the model contained 294 pipes, 234 nodes, six pumps, and 11 tanks. Each utility's problem areas were identified and some of the individual and mutual benefits of hydraulic planning were illustrated. A dialogue resulted between the managers. Each manager described his goals and agreed that, although political merger was not feasible at the present time, future economic factors could be a definite influence in reversing that decision.     

REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING BY INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

Abstract: This paper describes an interactive data and model generator that is intended to bridge the gap between the water resource enginner and planner and the mathematical progrmming systems approach to regional water supply planning. The optimization objective is to minimize total annual cost with respect to capital investment and operation and maintenance costs. The matrix generator formulates the necessary hydrologic, demographic and programming problem for system optimization. The interactive program guides the user through the input and optimization segments, totally eliminates the chore of manually structuring the model matrix aides in eliminating errors, and allows use by planners without skill in mathematical programming.     

ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS FOR WATER SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT Providing adequate water supplies of good quality is becoming a serious problem in many areas of the United States. Some of the alternatives proposed for meeting the growing shortage of clean-water or cheap-water are reallocation, reuse, and importation. This paper outlines a methodology to assess all of these water supply alternatives by examining the amount and time-staging for development of water sources. In conceptualizing the problem, sources of supply are classified in three categories: primary or base supplies, secondary or effluent supplies, and supplementary or imported supplies. A model of the water system is formulated as a “transportation problem” in linear programming depicting the possible sources of supply which can be used to satisfy the requirements of various water users. The optimizing objective in the model is to minimize the cost of water under various assumptions for operating the system. A case study of the Salt Lake Qty, Utah, area is used to illustrate the application of the model in obtaining optimal water supply allocations for projected future demands. Assessment of alternatives in the study include redistribution of supplies, time-staging of supplies and related treatment facilities, and sensitivity of allocations to changes in costs.     

PREDICTING INSTANTANEOUS PEAK DEMAND IN RURAL DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many rural areas of the United States still have no public domestic water systems. Typical land use patterns in these areas may require 1/2 mile or more of pipe per farm connection. Public systems serving these areas are economically feasible only if realistic short-term peak demand standards are available for their design. The lack of reliable data upon which to establish such criteria has resulted in a large variation in criteria among state and federal agencies involved in financing and in approving construction of these systems. During the summer of 1975 three distribution laterals of a rural system in Utah were master metered and instantaneous peak flows were recorded for 4 months. The metered lines served 4, 12, and 22 farm houses each. The frequency distribution of peak flows has been analyzed and compared with that developed during similar research in Mississippi and with the existing design standards of the Farmers Home Administration and the State of Utah.     

A LINEAR ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

The use of linear programming as a planning tool for determining the optimal long-range development of an urban water supply system was explored. A stochastic trace of water demand was synthesized and used as an input to the model. This permitted evaluating the feasibility of imposing demand restrictions as an effective cost reduction mechanism. The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, was used as the urban model. The fundamental problem was to allocate limited water supplies from several sources to an urban load center to minimize costs and comply with system constraints. The study period covered twenty years, and findings indicate the planning direction for stage development during this period. Sensitivity analyses were performed on cost coefficients and demands. Thirteen sources were included in the initial computations. Conclusions were that linear programming and generated demand traces are useful tools for both short- and long-term urban water supply planning. Lowering peak demands results in long-range development of fewer sources of supply and more economic and efficient use of the supplies developed.     

EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT POLICIES FOR URBAN WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT .This paper attempts to spell out the difficult conditions faced by urban water supply managers in achieving overall efficiency. Based upon these conditions, and changes that are likely in the next decade, it then tries to suggest strategies that would lead to even higher levels of efficiency in the future. A blending of political and economic concepts is used to make what is hoped to be a realistic analysis. What do we mean by “efficient”? The usual welfare economics definition is attainable only under a very special and highly unrealistic set of institutional arrangements. As soon as we delegate responsibility to a specialized agency we provide the opportunity, indeed we make it imperative that, in a social sense, a sub-optimization will take place. From the specifics of the indictment of this sub-optimization we can learn something about the opportunities for more efficient management in the future. In general there is an under-exploitation of multiple-function, multiple-objective opportunities. The pressures for sub-optimization hinge very directly on the sources of support and opposition to the water supply agency. A change requires the creation of a broader political base. The search for regional solutions is largely a political problem, and probably the development of flexible, responsive regional agency, so long sought, is still the answer.     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

A RATIONALE FOR THE REGIONALIZATION OF PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT. A rationale is set forth for requiring and/or encouraging the consolidation or regionalization of all systems beneath certain population size levels based on the small water systems’ capability to produce an adequate supply of safe drinking water at a reasonable cost to customers. Estimates for basic costs of water service including personnel, other operation and maintenance and capital are made and a range of water rates is suggested based on reasonableness and acceptability to customers. Guidelines are then drawn for a moderate rate of $10.00 per month and an upper limit rate of $15.00 per month to show the sizes at which public water systems might be expected to achieve fiscal viability. Finally, recommendations are made to State and Federal governmental agencies concerning possible legislation, plans and programs to achieve better public water service through the regionalization or consolidation of small public water systems.