Variability of Ozone Air Quality Indicators in Selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas

This article analyzes numerical variability In ozone air quality data to understand how this variability affects the number of violations seen each year in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Three commonly cited violation indices are used: 1) the annual number of expected exceedances averaged over 3 years is greater than 1; 2) the n+ 1th hourly value in n years of data is greater than 0.12 ppm; and 3) the annual number of expected exceedances is greater than 1. Only the first index is consistent with applicable regulations. The analyses indicate that about 23 percent of all MSAs with valid data had one or more change In their ozone violation status between 1979 and 1987. This change in status occurred for approximately 7 percent of all MSA-years of available data. This statistic was about one-third of the value usually obtained when the two incorrect, but commonly used, criteria of ozone violations are used.     

Variability of ozone air quality indicators in selected metropolitan statistical areas

This article analyzes numerical variability in ozone air quality data to understand how this variability affects the number of violations seen each year in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Three commonly cited violation indices are used: 1) the annual number of expected exceedances averaged over 3 years is greater than 1; 2) the n+ 1th hourly value in n years of data is greater than 0.12 ppm; and 3) the annual number of expected exceedances is greater than 1. Only the first index is consistent with applicable regulations. The analyses indicate that about 23 percent of all MSAs with valid data had one or more change in their ozone violation status between 1979 and 1987. This change in status occurred for approximately 7 percent of all MSA-years of available data. This statistic was about one-third of the value usually obtained when the two incorrect, but commonly used, criteria of ozone violations are used.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ozone Exposure in Forested Areas of the United States and Canada: 1978—1988

Ambient O₃ exposures have reduced growth rates of tree genotypes in some areas of the United States. For characterizing O₃ exposures in forested areas, data from primarily population-oriented sites have been used. It has been speculated that exposures calculated from population-oriented sites provide estimates greater than those that would actually be experienced in the majority of forested areas. Accordingly, we compared 1988 O₃ data from three remote forested sites with data from several population-oriented monitoring sites in and around the mid? and southern Appalachian Mountains. The number of hours ≥0.08 ppm was lower at the remote forested sites than at the nearby population-oriented locations. In addition, we characterized the temporal variability of O₃ exposures in forested regions of the United States and Canada for the period 1978-1988. We found that the years of highest O₃ exposure in the eastern United States during 1978-1988 were 1978, 1980, 1983, and 1988, with 1988 being the worst year in four of seven eastern forest regions. In 1988, the Whiteface Mountain summit site (1483 m) experienced approximately 10 percent more hourly average concentrations ≥0.08 ppm than in the second highest O₃ exposure year (i.e., 1979). Consistently throughout the 11-year period, the highest O₃ exposures at the Whiteface Mountain site occurred during the late evening and early morning hours, with the result that the longterm 7-h (0900-1559h) exposure index could not distinguish those years in which the highest exposures occurred from those in which the lowest occurred. Similar to the Whiteface Mountain site, two high-elevation Shenandoah National Park sites experienced their highest O₃ exposures in 1988. With the exception of 1986, the lower elevation site (Dickey Ridge) consistently experienced more frequent occurrences of hourly average concentrations ≥0.08 ppm than the higher elevation site (Big Meadows).     

An assessment of source contributions to the ozone concentrations in southern Ontario, 1979–1985

Source contributions to the surface O₃ concentrations in southern Ontario were assessed for the 1979–1985 period. Ozone episode analyses indicate a frequency of about nine episodes per year (15 episode-days). These occur primarily in the summer months and are generally manifestations of the northern extent of the O₃ problem in eastern North America. Widespread elevated O₃ levels tend to occur under weather classes indicative of back or centre of the high pressure situations and associated flow/trajectory from areas south/southwest of the lower Great Lakes. These episodes vary considerably from year-to-year. Local impacts on O₃ levels are generally small.A study of O₃ levels during cloud-free summer days for the period 1981–1985 gave local ‘background’ O₃ levels of about 20–30 ppb daily and 30–50 ppb hourly maxima. The O₃ contributions from the U.S. to southern Canada (assuming local ‘background’ O₃ levels to be independent of wind direction) were estimated to be 30–35 ppb daily and 30–50 ppb hourly maxima. These results indicate an overall O₃ contribution of about 50–60% from the U.S. to southern Ontario. For episode-days, the U.S. contribution is even more significant.     

Characterization of summertime coarse particulate matter in the Desert Southwest—Arizona,USA

A year-long study was conducted in Pinal County, AZ, to characterize coarse (2.5 – 10 μm aerodynamic diameter, AD) and fine (< 2.5 μm AD) particulate matter (PMc and PMf, respectively) to further understand spatial and temporal variations in ambient PM concentrations and composition in rural, arid environments. Measurements of PMc and PMf mass, ions, elements, and carbon concentrations at one-in-six day resolution were obtained at three sites within the region. Results from the summer of 2009 and specifically the local monsoon period are presented.

The summer monsoon season (July – September) and associated rain and/or high wind events, has historically had the largest number of PM₁₀ NAAQS exceedances within a year. Rain events served to clean the atmosphere, decreasing PMc concentrations resulting in a more uniform spatial gradient among the sites. The monsoon period also is characterized by high wind events, increasing PMc mass concentrations, possibly due to increased local wind-driven soil erosion or transport. Two PM₁₀ NAAQS exceedances at the urban monitoring site were explained by high wind events and can likely be excluded from PM₁₀ compliance calculations as exceptional events. At the more rural Cowtown site, PM₁₀ NAAQS exceedances were more frequent, likely due to the impact from local dust sources.

PM mass concentrations at the Cowtown site were typically higher than at the Pinal County Housing and Casa Grande sites. Crustal material was equal to 52-63% of the PMc mass concentration on average. High concentrations of phosphate and organic carbon found at the rural Cowtown were associated with local cattle feeding operations. A relatively high correlation between PMc and PMf (R²?=?0.63) indicated that the lower tail of the coarse particle fraction often impacts the fine particle fraction, increasing the PMf concentrations. Therefore, reductions in PMc sources will likely also reduce PMf concentrations, which also are near the value of the 24-hr PM_2.5 NAAQS.

Implications: In the desert southwest, summer monsoons are often associated with above average PM₁₀ (<10 μm AD) mass concentrations. Competing influences of monsoon rain and wind events showed that rain suppresses ambient concentrations while high wind increase them. In this region, the PMc fraction dominates PM₁₀ and crustal sources contribute 52-63% to local PMc mass concentrations on average. Cattle feedlot emissions are also an important source and a unique chemical signature was identified for this source. Observations suggest monsoon wind events alone cannot explain PM₁₀ NAAQS exceedances, thus requiring these values to remain in compliance calculations rather than being removed as exceptional wind events.     

Testing model accuracy measures according to the EU directives—examples using the chemical transport model REM-CALGRID

The paper presents a comprehensive model evaluation focusing on the meaning and shortcomings of accuracy measures used to determine model quality according to European Union (EU) directives on air quality. European wide simulations employing the chemical transport model REM-CALGRID for the year 2002 were compared with O₃, NO₂, SO₂ and PM₁₀ observations of the German measurement network.The EU model quality objective, which is based on maximum relative errors, tends to penalise (i) the overestimation of very low measured concentrations in the case of annual averages and (ii) the underestimation of extremely high measured concentrations in the case of short-term values. As a more robust alternative, a model accuracy measure is presented, which corresponds to the allowed number of exceedances of the corresponding short-term air quality limit values.The influence of the spatial heterogeneity of the observations in relation to the spatial resolution of the model is investigated by spatial averaging of observation data. Because of this heterogeneity, any model with a 25 km resolution would fail to simulate about 20% of all NO₂ and SO₂ stations and 5–10% of all O₃ and PM₁₀ stations in Germany according to the EU model quality objectives for short-term averages.     

Recent spatial gradients and time trends in Dhaka,Bangladesh, air pollution and their human health implications

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is among the most polluted cities in the world. This research evaluates seasonal patterns, day-of-week patterns, spatial gradients, and trends in PM_2.5 (<2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter), PM₁₀ (<10 µm in aerodynamic diameter), and gaseous pollutants concentrations (SO₂, NO₂, CO, and O₃) monitored in Dhaka from 2013 to 2017. It expands on past work by considering multiple monitoring sites and air pollutants. Except for ozone, the average concentrations of these pollutants showed strong seasonal variation, with maximum during winter and minimum during monsoon, with the pollution concentration of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ being roughly five- to sixfold higher during winter versus monsoon. Our comparisons of the pollutant concentrations with Bangladesh NAAQS and U.S. NAAQS limits analysis indicate particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) as the air pollutants of greatest concern, as they frequently exceeded the Bangladesh NAAQS and U.S. NAAQS, especially during nonmonsoon time. In contrast, gaseous pollutants reported far fewer exceedances throughout the study period. During the study period, the highest number of exceedances of NAAQS limits in Dhaka City (Darus-Salam site) were found for PM_2.5 (72% of total study days), followed by PM₁₀ (40% of total study days), O₃ (1.7% of total study days), SO₂ (0.38% of total study days), and CO (0.25% of total study days). The trend analyses results showed statistically significant positive slopes over time for SO₂ (5.6 ppb yr^?1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7, 10.5) and CO (0.32 ppm yr^?1, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.56), which suggest increase in brick kilns operation and high-sulfur diesel use. Though statistically nonsignificant annual decreasing slopes for PM_2.5 (?4.6 µg/m³ yr^?1, 95% CI: ?12.7, 3.6) and PM₁₀ (?2.7 µg/m³ yr^?1, 95% CI: ?7.9, 2.5) were observed during this study period, the PM_2.5 concentration is still too high (~ 82.0 µg/m³) and can cause severe impact on human health.

Implications: This study revealed key insights into air quality challenges across Dhaka, Bangladesh, indicating particulate matter (PM) as Dhaka’s most serious air pollutant threat to human health. The results of these analyses indicate that there is a need for immediate further investigations, and action based on those investigations, including the conduct local epidemiological PM exposure-human health effects studies for this city, in order to determine the most public health effective interventions.     

Forecasting Peak Daily Ozone Levels: Part 2—A Regression with Time Series Errors Model Having a Principal Component Trigger to Forecast 1999 and 2002 Ozone Levels

Abstract

A modified time series approach, a Box-Jenkins regression with time series errors (RTSE) model plus a principal component (PC) trigger, has been developed to forecast peak daily 1-hr ozone (O₃) in real time at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee North (UWM-N) during 1999 and 2002. The PC trigger acts as a predictor variable in the RTSE model. It tries to answer the question: will the next day be a possible high O₃ day? To answer this question, three PC trigger rules were developed: (1) Hi-Low Checklist, (2) Discriminant Function Approach I, and (3) Discriminant Function Approach II. Also, a pure RTSE model without including the PC trigger and a persistence approach were tested for comparison. The RTSE model with DFA I successfully forecast the only two 1-hr federal exceedances (124 ppb), one in 1999 and one in 2002. In terms of the O₃ 100-ppb exceedances, 60–80% of the incorrect forecasts occurred with incorrect PC decisions. A few others may have been caused by unexpected O_3- weather relations. When the three approaches used UWM-N data to forecast a 100-ppb exceedance somewhere in the Milwaukee, WI, metropolitan area, their performance was dramatically improved: the false alarm rate was reduced from 0.89 to 0.44, and the probability of detection was increased from 0.71 to 0.88.     

Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study

The goal of this modeling study is to determine how concentrations of ozone respond to changes in climate over the eastern USA. The sensitivities of average ozone concentrations to temperature, wind speed, absolute humidity, mixing height, cloud liquid water content and optical depth, cloudy area, precipitation rate, and precipitating area extent are investigated individually. The simulation period consists of July 12–21, 2001, during which an ozone episode occurred over the Southeast. The ozone metrics used include daily maximum 8 h average O₃ concentration and number of grid cells exceeding the US EPA ambient air-quality standard. The meteorological factor that had the largest impact on both ozone metrics was temperature, which increased daily maximum 8 h average O₃ by 0.34 ppb K⁻¹ on average over the simulation domain. Absolute humidity had a smaller but appreciable effect on daily maximum 8 h average O₃ (−0.025 ppb for each percent increase in absolute humidity). While domain-average responses to changes in wind speed, mixing height, cloud liquid water content, and optical depth were rather small, these factors did have appreciable local effects in many areas. Temperature also had the largest effect on air-quality standard exceedances; a 2.5 K temperature increase led to a 30% increase in the area exceeding the EPA standard. Wind speed and mixing height also had appreciable effects on ozone air-quality standard exceedances.     

Vertical Ozone Profile in the Lower Troposphere over Chicago

ABSTRACT

A 15-year (1981-95) climatology for the diurnal maximum ozone concentration (DMOC) was developed using 1-hr average ozone concentrations in the Baltimore-Washington area, which was made up of four regions: Baltimore, Washington, non-urban Maryland, and non-urban northern Virginia. The DMOC time series for each of these regions were divided into four terms representing different behavioral time scales: the long-term mean; the mean in-tra-annual perturbation; the interannual perturbation; and the synoptic perturbation. The urban regions had smaller values of the long-term mean ozone, but the annual range was larger. The values of the interannual perturbation were largest in the summer, when ozone production is significant, and smallest in the late winter and early spring. The interannual perturbation in the summer in the four regions consistently had positive departures in 1983, 1988, and 1991, and it had negative departures in 1981, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990, and 1992. Summers with large positive interannual departures experienced a large number of ozone exceedances (i.e., relative to the 1-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 125 parts per billion [ppb]), and summers with large negative departures experienced few or no exceedances. About 50% of the exceedances had concentrations ranging in value from 125-135 ppb, and about 75% had concentrations from 125-145 ppb.     

An Operational Assessment of the Application of the Relative Reduction Factors in the Demonstration of Attainment of the 8-Hr Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1997 revised the 1-hr ozone (O₃) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) to one based on an 8-hr average, resulting in potential nonattainment status for substantial portions of the eastern United States. The regulatory process provides for the development of a state implementation plan that includes a demonstration that the projected future O₃ concentrations will be at or below the NAAQS based on photochemical modeling and analytical techniques.

In this study, four photochemical modeling systems, based on two photochemical models, Community Model for Air Quality and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions, and two emissions processing models, Sparse Matrix Optimization Kernel for Emissions and Emissions Modeling System, were applied to the eastern United States, with emphasis on the northeastern Ozone Transport Region in terms of their response to oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic carbon-focused controls on the estimated design values. With the 8-hr O₃ NAAQS set as a bright-line test, it was found that a given area could be termed as being in or out of attainment of the NAAQS depending upon the modeling system. This suggests the need to provide an estimate of model-to-model uncertainty in the relative reduction factor (RRF) for a better understanding of the uncertainty in projecting the status of an area's attainment. Results indicate that the model-to-model differences considered in this study introduce an uncertainty of the future estimated design value of ～3–5 ppb.     

Effects of Land Use Data on Dry Deposition in a Regional Photochemical Model for Eastern Texas

ABSTRACT

Land use data are among the inputs used to determine dry deposition velocities for photochemical grid models such as the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) that is currently used for attainment demonstrations and air quality planning by the state of Texas. The sensitivity of dry deposition and O₃ mixing ratios to land use classification was investigated by comparing predictions based on default U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land use data to predictions based on recently compiled land use data that were collected to improve biogenic emissions estimates. Dry deposition of O₃ decreased throughout much of eastern Texas, especially in urban areas, with the new land use data. Predicted 1-hr averaged O₃ mixing ratios with the new land use data were as much as 11 ppbv greater and 6 ppbv less than predictions based on USGS land use data during the late afternoon. In addition, the area with peak O₃ mixing ratios in excess of 100 ppbv increased significantly in urban areas when deposition velocities were calculated based on the new land use data. Finally, more detailed data on land use within urban areas resulted in peak changes in O₃ mixing ratios of ~2 ppbv. These results indicate the importance of establishing accurate, internally consistent land use data for photochemical modeling in urban areas in Texas. They also indicate the need for field validation of deposition rates in areas experiencing changing land use patterns, such as during urban reforestation programs or residential and commercial development.     

Demonstrating attainment in Atlanta using urban airshed model simulations: impact of boundary conditions and alternative forms of the NAAQS

Urban Airshed Model-Version IV (UAM-IV) simulations on 7–8 July, 1988 for the Atlanta, Georgia, nonattainment area are used to investigate how recent changes in the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and changes in boundary concentrations may affect attempts to comply with the standard through local emissions reductions. According to model results, the recently promulgated 8 h NAAQS at a level of 0.08 ppmv will require larger emission reductions to comply with the standard than those that are necessary to comply with the previous 1 h/0.12 ppmv NAAQS. Regardless of the form of the NAAQS or the magnitude of the concentrations of O₃ and its precursors at the model domain boundary, UAM-IV simulations for Atlanta predict that NO_x (NO+NO₂) emission reductions are more effective than volatile organic compound reductions in mitigating O₃ pollution. Moreover, the simulations indicate that NO_x emission reductions greater than 60–75% would be required to demonstrate attainment under either form of the standard, even if boundary concentrations of O₃ and its precursors were substantially reduced. Further research is necessary to determine if this weak response to emission controls is truly representative of the real atmosphere, or is a result of the meteorological conditions specific to this episode, or is an artifact of the UAM-IV model or its inputs.     

Analysis of PM10 Trends in the United States from 1988 through 1995

ABSTRACT

Because the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has changed the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ambient particulate matter (PM), there is a great deal of interest in determining recent PM trends. This paper examines trends in PM₁₀ (i.e., particulate matter less than 10 micrometers in diameter) for areas of the United States based on their attainment status—for PM₁₀ and ozone nonattainment and attainment areas. The analysis also focuses on urban, suburban, and rural areas, and eastern and western areas. The time period of evaluation is from 1988 through 1995. To shed further light on the ambient PM₁₀ trends, trends in ambient SO₂, NO₂, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are also analyzed. Finally, trends in emission inventories of SO₂, NO_x, VOCs, and PM₁₀ are evaluated. Results of the analysis show that widespread and similar reductions in PM₁₀ levels have occurred over the last seven years. Annual reductions range from 3.0% to 3.8%, with the greatest reductions coming in PM₁₀ nonattainment areas, but with very significant reductions also in PM₁₀ attainment areas, ozone attainment areas, and rural areas. The widespread reductions appear to be due to a set of controls or common factors that are having a fairly uniform effect in all of the areas. The consistency of the reductions in different areas suggests that the reductions may also be primarily in the fine particles (i.e., those less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, or PM_2.5), which are more readily transported than coarse particles.     

Consultant Guide/1987

ABSTRACT

This study considers the characteristics of ground-level ozone (O₃) in five Korean cities over a time period of 6-8 years. The focus of this study is daily maximum 1-hr and 8-hr concentrations. For all the study cities in the period examined, the mean and most of the percentiles (5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, and 95) for the daily maximum 1-hr and 8hr concentrations showed increasing trends, although not all trends were statistically significant. The daily maximum 1-hr and 8-hr concentrations slowly increased during late winter, and peaks were attained during the summer season (from May to September). All the selected cities exhibited a high degree of correlation between their daily maximum 8-hr and 1-hr concentrations. The daily maximum 8-hr concentrations, which were climatologi-cally equivalent to the Korean 1 hr/100 parts per billion (ppb) standard, were higher than the current 8 hr/60 ppb by a difference of 8-16 ppb. Compared with other cities in Korea, Seoul recorded a substantially higher frequency of days and hours with concentrations above 1 hr/100 ppb, and a higher frequency of days with concentrations above 8 hr/60 ppb and 8 hr/80 ppb. Seoul also recorded a substantially higher frequency of hours with concentrations above 1 hr/100 ppb than days with concentrations above 1 hr/100 ppb, implying that on some days severe exceedances persisted for more than one hour per day. During multiple-day episodes a North Pacific High dominated Korea, which is quite typical in Korea during the summer season.     

Surface ozone at four remote island sites and the preliminary assessment of the exceedances of its critical level in Japan

Analysis of the recent surface ozone data at four remote islands (Rishiri, Oki, Okinawa, and Ogasawara) in Japan indicates that East Asian anthropogenic emissions significantly influence the boundary layer ozone in Japan. Due to these regional-scale emissions, an increase of ozone concentration is observed during fall, winter, and spring when anthropogenically enhanced continental air masses from Siberia/Eurasia arrive at the sites. The O₃ concentrations in the “regionally polluted” continental outflow among sites are as high as 41–46 ppb in winter and 54–61 ppb in spring. Meanwhile, marine air masses from the Pacific Ocean show as low as 13–14 ppb of O₃ at Okinawa and Ogasawara in summer but higher O₃ concentrations, 24–27 ppb, are observed at Oki and Rishiri due to the additional pollution mainly from Japan mainland. The preliminary analysis of the exceedances of ozone critical level using AOT40 and SUM06 exposure indices indicates that the O₃ threshold were exceeded variously among sites and years. The highest AOT40 and SUM06 were observed at Oki in central Japan where the critical levels are distinctly exceeded. In the other years, the O₃ exposures at Oki, Okinawa, and Rishiri are about or slightly higher than the critical levels. The potential risk of crop yields reduction from high level of O₃ exposure in Japan might not be a serious issue during 1990s and at present because the traditional growing season in Japan are during the low O₃ period in summer. However, increases of anthropogenic emission in East Asia could aggravate the situation in the very near future.     

Comparative chemical mass closure of fine and coarse aerosols at two sites in south and west Europe: Implications for EU air pollution policies

The chemical composition of PM10 and PM2.5 was studied during summer and winter sampling campaigns in South and West Europe (Barcelona, Spain, and Ghent, Belgium). The chemical composition of the PM10 aerosol was markedly different in the two regions, even at similar PM10 levels. The chemical composition of PM2.5 showed more similarities. The contribution of mineral matter was higher in Barcelona (on average 12% of the PM2.5 mass), whereas the contribution from sea salt was higher in Ghent (4% of PM2.5). Volatilisation of NH₄⁺ from the filters (negative artefact) was observed in both regions, although the extent of this artefact showed regional differences (0–4% and 22–38% of the NH₄⁺ mass in Ghent and Barcelona, respectively) and had no impact on the compliance with EU limit values. The number of exceedances of the PM10 limit value and an arbitrary PM2.5 limit of 25 μg m⁻³ was calculated by subtracting the mineral fraction (natural or anthropogenic in origin) from the bulk PM load, and this resulted in the elimination of the PM10 exceedances in Barcelona, and a reduction of one out of three exceedances in Ghent. The subtraction of sea-salt aerosol had no effect in Barcelona, and it removed one exceedance in each size fraction in Ghent. Exceedances of the PM10 daily limit value in Ghent coincided with back-trajectories originating from Eastern and Southern European regions. The origin of the exceedances in Barcelona during the campaigns was mostly local.     

Demolition of High-Rise Public Housing Increases Particulate Matter Air Pollution in Communities of High-Risk Asthmatics

Abstract

Public housing developments across the United States are being demolished, potentially increasing local concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in communities with high burdens of severe asthma. Little is known about the impact of demolition on local air quality. At three public housing developments in Chicago, IL, PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM₁₀) and <2.5 μm were measured before and during high-rise demolition. Additionally, size-selective sampling and real-time monitoring were concurrently performed upwind and downwind of one demolition site. The concentration of particulates attributable to demolition was estimated after accounting for background urban air pollution. Particle microscopy was performed on a small number of samples. Substantial increases of PM₁₀ occurred during demolition, with the magnitude of that increase varying based on sampler distance, wind direction, and averaging time. During structural demolition, local concentrations of PM₁₀ 42 m downwind of a demolition site increased 4- to 9-fold above upwind concentrations (6-hr averaging time). After adjusting for background PM₁₀, the presence of dusty conditions was associated with a 74% increase in PM₁₀ 100 m downwind of demolition sites (24-hr averaging times). During structural demolition, short-term peaks in real-time PM₁₀ (30-sec averaging time) occasionally exceeded 500 μg/m³. The median particle size downwind of a demolition site (17.3 μm) was significantly larger than background (3 μm). Specific activities are associated with real-time particulate measures. Microscopy did not identify asbestos or high concentrations of mold spores. In conclusion, individuals living near sites of public housing demolition are at risk for exposure to high particulate concentrations. This increase is characterized by relatively large particles and high short-term peaks in PM concentration.     

An extended approach to calculate the ozone relative response factors used in the attainment demonstration for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards

With the promulgation of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS or standard) for 8-hr ozone (O₃), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued modeling guidance that advocated the use of results from photochemical air quality models in a relative sense. In doing so, the EPA provided guidance on how to calculate relative response factors (RRFs) that can project current design value (DV) mixing ratios into the future for the purpose of determining the attainment status with respect to the O₃ standard. The RRFs recommended by the EPA represent the average response of the photochemical model over a broad range of O₃ mixing ratios above a specified cutoff threshold. However, it is known that O₃ response to emission reductions of limiting precursors (i.e., NO_x and/or VOC) is greater on days with higher O₃ mixing ratios compared to days with lower mixing ratios. In this study, we present a segmented RRF concept termed band-RRF, which takes into account the different model responses at different O₃ mixing ratios. The new band-RRF concept is demonstrated in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) region of California for the 1-hr and 8-hr O₃ standards. The 1-hr O₃ analysis is relevant to work done in support of the SJV O₃ State Implementation Plan (SIP) submitted to the EPA in 2013. The 8-hr example for the future year of 2019 is presented for illustrative purposes only. Further work will be conducted with attainment deadline of 2032 as part of upcoming SIPs for the 0.075 parts per million (ppm) 8-hr O₃ standard. The applicability of the band-RRF concept to the particulate matter (PM_2.5) standards is also discussed.

Implications:Results of photochemical models are used in regulatory applications in a relative sense using relative response factors (RRFs), which represent the impacts of emissions reductions over a wide range of ozone (O₃) values. It is possible to extend the concept of RRFs to account for the fact that higher O₃ mixing ratios (both 1-hr and 8-hr) respond more to emissions controls of limiting precursors than do lower O₃ mixing ratios. We demonstrate this extended concept, termed band-RRF, for the 1-hr and 8-hr O₃ National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS or standard) in the San Joaquin Valley of California. This extension can also be made applicable to the 24-hr PM_2.5 and annual PM_2.5 standards.     

The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a “test bed” for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O₃) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5–29), utilizing hourly O₃ concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s Air Quality System network.