Parameter evaluation and model validation of ozone exposure assessment using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study data

To examine factors influencing long-term ozone (O3) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O3 concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one-year-long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O3 concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance-covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best-linear unbiased prediction technique. The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O3 concentration, central ambient O3 concentration, outdoor O3 concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O3 concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O3 for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost-effectively predict personal O3 exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost-effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

Filtration of Radioactive Aerosols By Glass Fibers

Abstract

An ozone (O₃) exposure assessment study was conducted in Toronto, Ontario, Canada during the winter and summer of 1992. A new passive O₃ sampler developed by Harvard was used to measure indoor, outdoor, and personal O₃ concentrations. Measurements were taken weekly and daily during the winter and summer, respectively. Indoor samples were collected at a total of 50 homes and workplaces of study participants. Outdoor O₃ concentrations were measured both at home sites using the passive sampler and at 20 ambient monitoring sites with continuous monitors. Personal O₃ measurements were collected from 123 participants, who also completed detailed time-activity diaries. A total of 2,274 O₃ samples were collected. In addition, weekly air exchange rates of homes were measured.

This study demonstrates the performance of our O₃ sampler for exposure assessment. The data obtained are further used to examine the relationships between personal, indoor (home and workplace), and outdoor O₃ concentrations, and to investigate outdoor and indoor spatial variations in O₃ concentrations. Based on home outdoor and indoor, workplace, and ambient O₃ concentrations measured at the Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) sites, the traditional microenvironmental model predicts 72% of the variability in measured personal exposures. An alternative personal O₃ exposure model based on outdoor measurements and time-activity information is able to predict the mean personal exposures in a large population, with the highest R² value of 0.41.     

Comparison of Outdoor and Classroom Ozone Exposures for School Children in Mexico City

Abstract

To evaluate methods of reducing exposure of school children in southwest Mexico City to ambient ozone, outdoor ozone levels were compared to indoor levels under three distinct classroom conditions: windows/doors open, air cleaner off; windows/doors closed, air cleaner off; windows/ doors closed, air cleaner on. Repeated two-minute average measurements of ozone were made within five minutes of each other inside and outside of six different school classrooms while children were in the room. Outdoor ozone two-minute average levels varied between 64 and 361 ppb; mean outdoor levels were above 160 ppb for each of the three conditions. Adjusting for outdoor relative humidity, for a mean outdoor ozone concentration of 170 ppb, the mean predicted indoor ozone concentrations were 125.3 (±5.7) ppb with windows/doors open; 35.4 (±4.6) ppb with windows/ doors closed, air cleaner off; and 28.9 (±4.3) ppb with windows/ doors closed, air cleaner on. The mean predicted ratios of indoor to outdoor ozone concentrations were 0.71 (±0.03) with windows/doors open; 0.18 (±0.02) ppb with windows/doors closed, air cleaner off; and 0.15 (±0.02) ppb with windows/doors closed, air cleaner on. As outdoor ozone concentrations increased, indoor ozone concentrations increased more rapidly with windows and doors open than with windows and doors closed. Ozone exposure in Mexican schools may be significantly reduced, and can usually be kept below the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline of 80 ppb, by closing windows and doors even when ambient ozone levels reach 30Q ppb or more.     

Ozone exposure among Mexico City outdoor workers

In researching health effects of air pollution, pollutant levels from fixed-site monitors are commonly assigned to the subjects. However, these concentrations may not reflect the exposure these individuals actually experience. A previous study of ozone (O3) exposure and lung function among shoe-cleaners working in central Mexico City used fixed-site measurements from a monitoring station near the outdoor work sites as surrogates for personal exposure. The present study assesses the degree to which these estimates represented individual exposures. In 1996, personal O3 exposures of 39 shoe-cleaners working outdoors were measured using an active integrated personal sampler. Using mixed models, we assessed the relationship between measured personal O3 exposure and ambient O3 measurements from the fixed-site monitoring station. Ambient concentrations were approximately 50 parts per billion higher, on average, than personal exposures. The association between personal and ambient O3 was highly significant (mixed model slope p < 0.0001). The personal/ambient ratio was not constant, so use of the outdoor monitor would not be appropriate to rank O3 exposure and evaluate health effects between workers. However, the strong within-worker longitudinal association validates previous findings associating day-to-day changes in fixed-site O3 levels with adverse health effects among these shoe-cleaners and suggests fixed-site O3 monitors may adequately estimate exposure for other repeated-measure health studies of outdoor workers.     

Outdoor/Indoor/Personal ozone exposures of children in Nashville, Tennessee

An ozone (O3) exposure study was conducted in Nashville, TN, using passive O3 samplers to measure six weekly outdoor, indoor, and personal O3 exposure estimates for a group of 10- to 12-yr-old elementary school children. Thirty-six children from two Nashville area communities (Inglewood and Hendersonville) participated in the O3 sampling program, and 99 children provided additional time-activity information by telephone interview. By design, this study coincided with the 1994 Nashville/Middle Tennessee Ozone Study conducted by the Southern Oxidants Study, which provided enhanced continuous ambient O3 monitoring across the Nashville area. Passive sampling estimated weekly average outdoor O3 concentrations from 0.011 to 0.O30 ppm in the urban Inglewood community and from 0.015 to 0.042 ppm in suburban Hendersonville. The maximum 1- and 8-hr ambient concentrations encountered at the Hendersonville continuous monitor exceeded the levels of the 1- and 8-hr metrics for the O3 National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Weekly average personal O3 exposures ranged from 0.0013 to 0.0064 ppm (7-31% of outdoor levels). Personal O3 exposures reflected the proportional amount of time spent in indoor and outdoor environments. Air-conditioned homes displayed very low indoor O3 concentrations, and homes using open windows and fans for ventilation displayed much higher concentrations.     

Personal exposure to PM2.5 and element composition—A comparison between outdoor and indoor workers from two Mexican cities

Many individuals work outdoors in the formal and informal economy of the large urban areas in developing countries, where they are potentially exposed for long periods to high concentrations of ambient airborne particulate matter (PM). This study describes the personal exposures to PM of 2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter and smaller (PM_2.5) for a sample of outdoor and indoor workers in two cities, Mexico City and Puebla, in central Mexico.Thirty-six workers in Mexico City and 17 in Puebla were studied. Thirty were outdoor workers (i.e., taxi and bus drivers, street vendors, and vehicle inspectors) and 23 were indoor (office) workers. Their personal exposures to PM_2.5 were monitored for a mean 19-h period. In Mexico City, the street vendors and taxi drivers overall exposures were significantly higher than indoor workers were. In Puebla, bus drivers had a higher overall exposure than vehicle inspectors or indoor workers. Most of the exposures were above the 65 μg m⁻³ 24-h Mexican standard.In Mexico City, exposures to Si, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Mo and Cd were higher for outdoor than for indoor workers. In Puebla, exposures to Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, V, Mn, and Zn also were higher for outdoor workers. In Mexico City outdoor workers exposures to Cu, Pb, Cr, Se and Mo were 4 or more times higher than for Puebla outdoor workers, while Puebla outdoor workers’ exposures to V, Si, Fe and Ca were 3 or more times higher than Mexico City outdoor workers.These results suggest that for these outdoor workers the elevated local ambient air PM concentrations and an extended period spent outside are more important contributors to total exposures than indoor concentrations. These workers could be at particular risk of increased morbidity and mortality associated with ambient PM.     

Determination of Ozone in Outdoor and Indoor Environments Using Nitrite-Impregnated Passive Samplers Followed by Ion Chromatography

Abstract

An improved ion chromatographic (IC) method has been developed for the separation of nitrate in filter extracts in the presence of high concentrations of nitrite. This analytical method was successfully used for an indirect measurement of ozone (O₃) in outdoor and indoor air, following its collection using a nitrite-impregnated passive sampler. The limit of detection and the limit of quantification, using the modified IC method, were 6 μg l^-1 (3σ) and 20 μg l^-1 (10σ), respectively. Improved detection limits and low baseline noise were obtained with the use of eluent generator and high-capacity ion exchange column. The optimized method was used for assessing O₃ concentration in both indoor and outdoor environments of 28 child care centers (CCCs) located in different parts of Singapore. The O₃ concentrations ranged from 0.1 to 11.95 parts per billion (ppb) in indoor and from 3.2 to 21.7 ppb in outdoor environments during the study period. It was found that, among the CCCs investigated in this study, air-conditioned CCCs and those located in close proximity to traffic emissions had significantly lower O₃ concentrations indoors.     

Assessing the Relationship between Personal Particulate and Gaseous Exposures of Senior Citizens Living in Baltimore,MD

ABSTRACT

We conducted a multi-pollutant exposure study in Baltimore, MD, in which 15 non-smoking older adult subjects (>64 years old) wore a multi-pollutant sampler for 12 days during the summer of 1998 and the winter of 1999. The sampler measured simultaneous 24-hr integrated personal exposures to PM₂₅, PM₁₀, SO₄ ^2-, O₃, NO₂, SO₂, and exhaust-related VOCs.

Results of this study showed that longitudinal associations between ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and corresponding personal exposures tended to be high in the summer (median Spearman's r = 0.74) and low in the winter (median Spearman's r = 0.25). Indoor ventilation was an important determinant of personal PM_2.5 exposures and resulting personal-ambient associations. Associations between personal PM₂₅ exposures and corresponding ambient concentrations were strongest for well-ventilated indoor environments and decreased with ventilation. This decrease was attributed to the increasing influence of indoor PM_{2 5} sources. Evidence for this was provided by SO₄ ^2-measurements, which can be thought of as a tracer for ambient PM₂₅. For SO₄ ^2-, personal-ambient associations were strong even in poorly ventilated indoor environments, suggesting that personal exposures to PM_2.5 of ambient origin are strongly associated with corresponding ambient concentrations. The results also indicated that the contribution of indoor PM_2.5 sources to personal PM_2.5 exposures was lowest when individuals spent the majority of their time in well-ventilated indoor environments.

Results also indicate that the potential for confounding by PM_2.5 co-pollutants is limited, despite significant correlations among ambient pollutant concentrations. In contrast to ambient concentrations, PM_2.5 exposures were not significantly correlated with personal exposures to PM_2.5-10, PM_2.5 of non-ambient origin, O₃, NO₂, and SO₂. Since a confounder must be associated with the exposure of interest, these results provide evidence that the effects observed in the PM_2.5 epidemiologic studies are unlikely to be due to confounding by the PM_2.5 co-pollutants measured in this study.     

Ozone Transport

Elevated concentrations of ozone, often above the national ambient air quality standard for photochemical oxidants, have been measured in both urban and rural areas of Connecticut. One such episode took place on June 10, 1974. Ozone levels, after stabilizing at values slightly above the standard (i.e., 80 to 110 ppb; Connecticut generated ozone concentrations), rose sharply late in the afternoon reaching concentrations as high as 310 ppb (almost 4 times the standard) in Hartford. The trajectory of the air mass, which arrived in Hartford at the time of maximum O₃ occurence, had its origin in the metropolitan New York area during the early morning rush hour on the episode day. This illustrates that the advective transport of O₃ and O₃ precursors into Connecticut from New York are probably responsible for a significant portion (approximately two-thirds) of the elevated O₃ concentrations measured throughout Connecticut on days when winds are from the south-southwest direction. The fact that peak O₃ levels occur late in the afternoon, several hours after maximum sunlight intensity, reinforces the conclusion that excessive O₃ concentrations developed as O₃ and ozone precursors were generated in the vicinity of New York City and then drifted inland into Connecticut on the afternoon sea breeze.

It appears to be unrealistic to develop a hydrocarbon control strategy for Connecticut in order to meet the photochemical oxidant ambient air quality standard when O₃ and/or ozone precursors ad-vectively transported into the State cause oxidant levels to exceed the standard. The complete cessation of all anthropogenic hydrocarbon emissions in Connecticut would not necessarily assure that the standard would be attained here. The implication is that a regional (i.e., the eastern part of the United States) hydrocarbon control strategy is needed to reduce adequately ozone formation and transport so as to allow Connecticut to meet the current oxidant standard.     

Exposure assessment of air pollutants: a review on spatial heterogeneity and indoor/outdoor/personal exposure to suspended particulate matter,nitrogen dioxide and ozone

This review describes databases of small-scale spatial variations and indoor, outdoor and personal measurements of air pollutants with the main focus on suspended particulate matter, and to a lesser extent, nitrogen dioxide and photochemical pollutants. The basic definitions and concepts of an exposure measurement are introduced as well as some study design considerations and implications of imprecise exposure measurements. Suspended particulate matter is complex with respect to particle size distributions, the chemical composition and its sources. With respect to small-scale spatial variations in urban areas, largest variations occur in the ultrafine (<0.1 μm) and the coarse mode (PM_10–2.5, resuspended dust). Secondary aerosols which contribute to the accumulation mode (0.1–2 μm) show quite homogenous spatial distribution. In general, small-scale spatial variations of PM_2.5 were described to be smaller than the spatial variations of PM₁₀. Recent studies in outdoor air show that ultrafine particle number counts have large spatial variations and that they are not well correlated to mass data. Sources of indoor particles are from outdoors and some specific indoor sources such as smoking and cooking for fine particles or moving of people (resuspension of dust) for coarse particles. The relationships between indoor, outdoor and personal levels are complex. The finer the particle size, the better becomes the correlation between indoor, outdoor and personal levels. Furthermore, correlations between these parameters are better in longitudinal analyses than in cross-sectional analyses. For NO₂ and O₃, the air chemistry is important. Both have considerable small-scale spatial variations within urban areas. In the absence of indoor sources such as gas appliances, NO₂ indoor/outdoor relationships are strong. For ozone, indoor levels are quite small. The study hypothesis largely determines the choice of a specific concept in exposure assessment, i.e. whether personal sampling is needed or if ambient monitoring is sufficient. Careful evaluation of the validity and improvements in precision of an exposure measure reduce error in the measurements and bias in the exposure–effect relationship.     

Air Pollution In Pittsburgh: A Historical Perspective

Sources and concentrations of indoor air pollutants and aeroallergens were evaluated in the arid Southwest community of Tucson, Arizona. One major purpose was to appraise the interaction of indoor and outdoor human exposures. A rough time budget study showed that 74% of adults spent 75% or more of their time in some indoor environment. Outdoor and indoor concentrations of TSP, RSP, CO, O₃ and aeroallergens were measured for 41 detached dwellings. Small area and basin monitoring occurred for TSP, CO, NO₂, O₃ and aeroallergens; ambient TSP frequently exceeds NAAQS and both CO and O3 do occasionally. Indoor TSP and RSP were lower than outdoors and were of a different composition. Outdoor infiltration falls rapidly for particles and pollen, related to distance Indoors. CO was low and O₃ was very low indoors. TSP and RSP correlated significantly with tobacco smoking and CO correlated with gas stove usage. Temperature varied minimally indoors and relative humidity indoors was similar to outdoor readings In this climate. It was concluded that better particle characterization and better estimates of total exposure are required.     

Residential Indoor,Outdoor, and Workplace Concentrations of Carbonyl Compounds: Relationships with Personal Exposure Concentrations and Correlation with Sources

Abstract

Personal 48-hr exposures of 15 randomly selected participants as well as microenvironment concentrations in each participant’s residence and workplace were measured for 16 carbonyl compounds during summer–fall 1997 as a part of the Air Pollution Exposure Distributions within Adult Urban Populations in Europe (EXPOLIS) study in Helsinki, Finland. When formaldehyde and acetaldehyde were excluded, geometric mean ambient air concentrations outside each participant’s residence were less than 1 ppb for all target compounds. Geometric mean residential indoor concentrations of carbonyls were systematically higher than geometric mean personal exposures and indoor workplace concentrations. Additionally, residential indoor/outdoor ratios indicated substantial indoor sources for most target compounds. Carbonyls in residential indoor air correlated significantly, suggesting similar mechanisms of entry into indoor environments. Overall, this study demonstrated the important role of non-traffic-related emissions in the personal exposures of participants in Helsinki and that comprehensive apportionment of population risk to air toxics should include exposure concentrations derived from product emissions and chemical formation in indoor air.     

Personal exposure levels and microenvironmental concentrations of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland

Personal 48-hr exposures to formaldehyde and acetaldehyde of 15 randomly selected participants were measured during the summer/autumn of 1997 using Sep-Pak DNPH-Silica cartridges as a part of the EXPOLIS study in Helsinki, Finland. In addition to personal exposures, simultaneous measurements of microenvironmental concentrations were conducted at each participant's residence (indoor and outdoor) and workplace. Mean personal exposure levels were 21.4 ppb for formaldehyde and 7.9 ppb for acetaldehyde. Personal exposures were systematically lower than indoor residential concentrations for both compounds, and ambient air concentrations were lower than both indoor residential concentrations and personal exposure levels. Mean workplace concentrations of both compounds were lower than mean indoor residential concentrations. Correlation between personal exposures and indoor residential concentrations was statistically significant for both compounds. This indicated that indoor residential concentrations of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are a better estimate of personal exposures than are concentrations in ambient air. In addition, a time-weighted exposure model did not improve the estimation of personal exposures above that obtained using indoor residential concentrations as a surrogate for personal exposures. Correlation between formaldehyde and acetaldehyde was statistically significant in outdoor microenvironments, suggesting that both compounds have similar sources and sinks in ambient urban air.     

Exposure of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients to Particulate Matter: Relationships between Personal and Ambient Air Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Most time-series studies of particulate air pollution and acute health outcomes assess exposure of the study population using fixed-site outdoor measurements. To address the issue of exposure misclassification, we evaluate the relationship between ambient particle concentrations and personal exposures of a population expected to be at risk of particle health effects.

Sampling was conducted within the Vancouver metropolitan area during April-September 1998. Sixteen subjects (non-smoking, ages 54-86) with physician-diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) wore personal PM_{2 5} monitors for seven 24-hr periods, randomly spaced approximately 1.5 weeks apart. Time-activity logs and dwelling characteristics data were also obtained for each subject. Daily 24-hr ambient PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were measured at five fixed sites spaced throughout the study region. SO₄ ^2-, which is found almost exclusively in the fine particle fraction and which does not have major indoor sources, was measured in all PM_{2 5} samples as an indicator of accumulation mode particu-late matter of ambient origin.     

Behavioral and environmental determinants of personal exposures to PM2.5 in EXPOLIS – Helsinki,Finland

Behavioral and environmental determinants of PM_2.5 personal exposures were analyzed for 201 randomly selected adult participants (25–55 years old) of the EXPOLIS study in Helsinki, Finland. Personal exposure concentrations were higher than respective residential outdoor, residential indoor and workplace indoor concentrations for both smokers and non-smokers. Mean personal exposure concentrations of active smokers (31.0±31.4 μg m⁻³) were almost double those of participants exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) (16.6±11.8 μg m⁻³) and three times those of participants not exposed to tobacco smoke (9.9±6.2 μg m⁻³). Mean indoor concentrations of PM_2.5 when a member of the household smoked indoors (20.8±23.9 μg m⁻³) were approximately 2.5 times the concentrations of PM_2.5 when no smoking was reported (8.2±5.2 μg m⁻³). Interestingly, however, both mean (8.2 μg m⁻³) and median (6.9 μg m⁻³) residential indoor concentrations for non-ETS exposed participants were lower than residential outdoor concentrations (9.5 and 7.3 μg m⁻³, respectively). In simple linear regression models residential indoor concentrations were the best predictors of personal exposure concentrations. Correlations (r²) between PM_2.5 personal exposure concentrations of all participants, both smoking and non-smoking, and residential indoor, workplace indoor, residential outdoor and ambient fixed site concentrations were 0.53, 0.38, 0.17 and 0.16, respectively. Predictors for personal exposure concentrations of non-ETS exposed participants identified in multiple regression were residential indoor concentrations, workplace concentrations and traffic density in the nearest street from home, which accounted for 77% of the variance. Subsequently, step-wise regression not including residential and workplace indoor concentrations as input (as these are frequently not available), identified ambient PM_2.5 concentration and home location, as predictors of personal exposure, accounting for 47% of the variance. Ambient fixed site PM_2.5 concentrations were closely related to residential outdoor concentrations (r²=0.9, p=0.000) and PM_2.5 personal exposure concentrations were higher in summer than during other seasons. Personal exposure concentrations were significantly (p=0.040) higher for individuals living downtown compared with individuals in suburban family homes. Further analysis will focus on comparisons of determinants between Helsinki and other EXPOLIS centers.     

Predicting residential indoor concentrations of nitrogen dioxide,fine particulate matter,and elemental carbon using questionnaire and geographic information system based data

Previous studies have identified associations between traffic-related air pollution and adverse health effects. Most have used measurements from a few central ambient monitors and/or some measure of traffic as indicators of exposure, disregarding spatial variability and factors influencing personal exposure-ambient concentration relationships. This study seeks to utilize publicly available data (i.e., central site monitors, geographic information system, and property assessment data) and questionnaire responses to predict residential indoor concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants for lower socioeconomic status (SES) urban households.As part of a prospective birth cohort study in urban Boston, we collected indoor and outdoor 3–4 day samples of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in 43 low SES residences across multiple seasons from 2003 to 2005. Elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were determined via reflectance analysis. Multiple traffic indicators were derived using Massachusetts Highway Department data and traffic counts collected outside sampling homes. Home characteristics and occupant behaviors were collected via a standardized questionnaire. Additional housing information was collected through property tax records, and ambient concentrations were collected from a centrally located ambient monitor.The contributions of ambient concentrations, local traffic and indoor sources to indoor concentrations were quantified with regression analyses. PM_2.5 was influenced less by local traffic but had significant indoor sources, while EC was associated with traffic and NO₂ with both traffic and indoor sources. Comparing models based on covariate selection using p-values or a Bayesian approach yielded similar results, with traffic density within a 50 m buffer of a home and distance from a truck route as important contributors to indoor levels of NO₂ and EC, respectively. The Bayesian approach also highlighted the uncertanity in the models. We conclude that by utilizing public databases and focused questionnaire data we can identify important predictors of indoor concentrations for multiple air pollutants in a high-risk population.     

Air Quality Modeling of Interpollutant Trading for Ozone Precursors in an Urban Area

Abstract

Emission trading is a market‐based approach designed to improve the efficiency and economic viability of emission control programs; emission trading has typically been confined to trades among single pollutants. Interpollutant trading (IPT), as described in this work, allows for trades among emissions of different compounds that affect the same air quality end point, in this work, ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations. Because emissions of different compounds impact air quality end points differently, weighting factors or trading ratios (tons of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) equivalent to a ton of emissions of volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) must be developed to allow for IPT. In this work, IPT indices based on reductions in O₃ concentrations and based on reductions in population exposures to O₃ were developed and evaluated using a three‐dimensional gridded photochemical model for Austin, TX, a city currently on the cusp of nonattainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O₃ concentrations averaged over 8 hr. Emissions of VOC and NO_x from area and mobile sources in Austin are larger than emissions from point sources. The analysis indicated that mobile and area sources exhibited similar impacts. Trading ratios based on maximum O₃ concentration or population exposure were similar. In contrast, the trading ratios did exhibit significant (more than a factor of two) day‐to‐day variability. Analysis of the air quality modeling indicated that the daily variability in trading ratios could be attributed to daily variations in both emissions and meteorology.     

A Statistical Model for FEV1 Response to Arbitrary Dynamic Ozone Exposure Conditions

ABSTRACT

Lung function response to inhaled ozone at ambient air pollution levels is known to be a function of ozone concentration, exposure duration, and minute ventilation. Most data-driven exposure-response models address exposures under static condition (i.e., with a constant ozone concentration and exercise pattern). Such models are simplifications, as both ambient ozone concentrations and normal human activity patterns change with time. The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model of response with the advantages of a statistical model (a relatively simple structure with few parameters). A previously proposed mechanistic model for changes in specific airways resistance was adapted to describe the percent change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁). This model was then reduced using the fit to three existing exposure-response data sets as criterion. The resulting model consists of a single linear differential equation together with an algebraic logistic equation. Under restricted static conditions the model reduces to a logistic model presented earlier by the authors.