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1.
To examine factors influencing long-term ozone (O3) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O3 concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one-year-long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O3 concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance-covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best-linear unbiased prediction technique. The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O3 concentration, central ambient O3 concentration, outdoor O3 concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O3 concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O3 concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O3 for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost-effectively predict personal O3 exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost-effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.  相似文献   

2.
The photolysis of nitrogen dioxide and formaldehyde are two of the most influential reactions in the formation of photochemical air pollution, and their rates are computed using actinic flux determined from a radiative transfer model. In this study, we compare predicted and measured nitrogen dioxide photolysis rate coefficients (jNO2). We used the Tropospheric Ultraviolet-Visible (TUV) radiation transfer model to predict jNO2 values corresponding to measurements performed in Riverside, California as part of the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS’97). Spectrally resolved irradiance measured at the same site allowed us to determine atmospheric optical properties, such as aerosol optical depth and total ozone column, that are needed as inputs for the radiative transfer model. Matching measurements of aerosol optical depth, ozone column, and jNO2 were obtained for 14 days during SCOS’97. By using collocated measurements of the light extinction caused by aerosols and ozone over the full height of the atmosphere as model input, it was possible to predict sudden changes in jNO2 resulting from atmospheric variability. While the diurnal profile of the rate coefficient was readily reproduced, jNO2 model predicted values were found to be consistently higher than measured values. The bias between measured and predicted values was 17–36%, depending on the assumed single scattering albedo. By statistical analysis, we restricted the most likely values of the single scattering albedo to a range that produced bias on the order of 20–25%. It is likely that measurement error is responsible for a significant part of the bias. The aerosol single scattering albedo was found to be a major source of uncertainty in radiative transfer model predictions. Our best estimate indicates its average value at UV-wavelengths for the period of interest is between 0.77 and 0.85.  相似文献   

3.
The probabilistic National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Exposure Model applied to carbon monoxide (pNEM/CO) was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to estimate frequency distributions of population exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) and the resulting carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels. To evaluate pNEM/CO, the model was set up to simulate CO exposure data collected during a Denver Personal Exposure Monitoring Study (PEM) conducted during the winter of 1982-1983. This paper compares computer-simulated exposure distributions obtained by pNEM/CO with the observed cumulative relative frequency distributions of population exposure to CO from 779 people in the Denver PEM study.

The subjects were disaggregated into two categories depending upon whether they lived in a home with a gas stove or an electric stove. The observed and predicted population exposure frequency distributions were compared in terms of 1-hr daily maximum exposure (1DME) and 8-hr daily maximum moving average exposure (8DME) for people living in homes with gas stove or an electric stove. For 1DME, the

computer-simulated results from pNEM/CO agreed most closely within the range of 6-13 ppm, but overestimated occurrences at low exposure (<6 ppm) and underestimated occurrences at high exposure (>13 ppm). For 8DME, the predicted exposures agreed best with observed exposures in the range of CO concentration between 5.5 and 7 ppm, and over-predicted occurrences below 5.5 ppm and under-predicted occurrences above 7 ppm.  相似文献   

4.
Volatile organic compound levels (VOCs) in breath, personal air, fixed outdoor air and drinking water samples were measured and compared for a probability sample of individuals in Los Angeles and Antioch/Pittsburg, California during 1984. In addition, comparisons were made between seasons (winter vs spring) in Los Angeles for individuals sampled in both seasons. The statistics presented to compare the sites and seasons were primarily percent measurable and concentration levels (e.g. sample medians). For most comparisons, 13 VOC levels were examined for breath, personal and outdoor air samples and four VOCs for water samples.In addition to the results for VOC levels, the paper also briefly describes
  • 1.(i) the sampling procedures used to obtain the study participants
  • 2.(ii) the collection of air, breath and water samples
  • 3.(iii) selected results from the quality assurance procedures used in this study.
For most chemicals, the percent measurable and concentration levels were
  • 1.(i) higher in personal air samples than in breath or outdoor air samples,
  • 2.(ii) higher in Los Angeles in the winter for air and breath than in the, spring,
  • 3.(iii) higher in Los Angeles for air and breath than in Antioch/Pittsburg,
  • 4.(iv) quite different for water as compared with air and breath.
Ubiquitous compounds in water were chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane and bromoform while in air and breath they were 1,1,1-trichloroethane, benzene, tetrachloroethylene, ethylbenzene and the xylenes.Concentrations were higher in
  • 1.(i) outdoor air vs breath in the winter in Los Angeles (where outdoor air levels were much higher than in the spring),
  • 2.(ii) in personal air vs outdoor air in the upper tails of the concentration distribution (90th percentile) compared to the 50th percentile. For the water samples, relatively high concentrations were noted for chloroform, bromodichloromethane and dibromochloromethane.
In most cases, water concentrations were higher for Los Angeles in the spring. Five VOCs known to be in tobacco smoke (benzene, styrene, ethylbenzene and the xylenes) had significantly higher levels in the breath of smokers.  相似文献   

5.
Formation of photochemical air pollution is governed in part by the solar ultraviolet actinic radiation flux, but wavelength-resolved measurements of UV radiation in polluted urban atmospheres are rarely available. As part of the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study, cosine weighted solar irradiance was measured continuously at seven UV wavelengths (300, 306, 312, 318, 326, 333 and 368 nm) at two sites during the period 1 July to 1 November 1997. The first site was at Riverside (260 m a.s.l.) in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, which frequently experiences severe air pollution episodes. The second site was at Mt Wilson (1725 m a.s.l.), approximately 70 km northwest of Riverside, and located above much of the urban haze layer. Measurements of direct (i.e., total minus diffuse) solar irradiance were used to compute total atmospheric optical depths. At 300 nm, optical depths (mean±1 S.D.) measured over the entire study period were 4.3±0.3 at Riverside and 3.7±0.2 at Mt Wilson. Optical depth decreased with increasing wavelength, falling at 368 nm to values of 0.8±0.2 at Riverside and 0.5±0.1 at Mt Wilson. At all wavelengths, both the mean and the relative standard deviation of optical depths were larger at Riverside than at Mt Wilson. At 300 nm, the difference between the smallest and largest observed optical depths corresponds to over a factor 2 increase in the direct beam irradiance for overhead sun, and over a factor 7 increase for a solar zenith angle of 60°. Principal component analysis was used to reveal underlying factors contributing to variability in optical depths. PCA showed that a single factor (component) was responsible for the major part of the variability. At Riverside, the first component was responsible for 97% of the variability and the second component for 2%. At Mt Wilson, 89% of the variability could be attributed to the first component and 10% to the second. Dependence of the component contributions on wavelength allowed identification of probable physical causes: the first component is linked to light scattering and absorption by atmospheric aerosols, and the second component is linked to light absorption by ozone. These factors are expected to contribute to temporal and spatial variability in solar actinic flux and photodissociation rates of species including ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and formaldehyde.  相似文献   

6.
Six properties appear desirable for any set of ozone attainment criteria: (1) sufficient stringency to protect public health, (2) simplicity and understandability, (3) sensitivity to real changes in air quality, (4) stability against meteorological fluctuations, (5) use of as much data as possible, and (6) equivalence between the stringency the criteria appear to mandate, and what they actually mandate. We consider how the federal attainment criteria might be improved with respect to Properties 4 through 6 while being equally strong on 1 through 3. Whether the federal standard meets Property 1 has been the subject of debate, but our analysis would apply also to a modified standard. We show that there are subtleties in how improvements might be made. In particular, basing the attainment status on a statistic with low variance may not lead to a more stable criterion, and although it is easy to find a criterion that makes it hard for a district with bad air to reach attainment, or a district with good air to get out of attainment, it is hard to find a criterion that does both. This suggests using different criteria for districts that are out of attainment from districts that are in attainment. Initially the burden of proof would be on the district to prove that its air is of attainment quality. However, once the district has achieved attainment the burden of proof would shift; the district would remain in attainment unless there was strong evidence to the contrary. An evaluation of a set of criteria based on this idea showed improvements over the federal criteria with respect to the last three desirable properties-stability, use of data, and equivalent stringency-with some sacrifice in simplicity and sensitivity.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

Three-dimensional air quality models (AQMs) represent the most powerful tool to follow the dynamics of air pollutants at urban and regional scales. Current AQMs can account for the complex interactions between gas-phase chemistry, aerosol growth, cloud and scavenging processes, and transport. However, errors in model applications still exist due in part to limitations in the models themselves and in part to uncertainties in model inputs. Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) can be used as a top-down tool to validate several of the model inputs, including emissions inventories, based on ambient measurements. Previously, this FDDA technique was used to estimate adjustments in the strength and composition of emissions of gas-phase primary species and O3 precursors.

In this paper, we present an extension to the FDDA technique to incorporate the analysis of particulate matter (PM) and its precursors. The FDDA approach consists of an iterative optimization procedure in which an AQM is coupled to an inverse model, and adjusting the emissions minimizes the difference between ambient measurements  相似文献   

8.
ABSTRACT

An intercomparison study has been performed with six empirical ozone interpolation procedures to predict hourly concentrations in ambient air between monitoring stations. The objective of the study is to use monitoring network data to empirically identify an improved procedure to estimate ozone concentrations at subject exposure points. Four of the procedures in the study are currently used in human exposure models (nearest monitors daily mean and maximum, regression estimate used in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) pNEM, and inverse distance weighting), and two are being evaluated for this purpose (kriging in space and kriging in space and time). The study focused on spatial estimation during June 1-June 5, 1996, with relatively high observed ozone levels over Houston, Texas. The study evaluated these procedures at three types of locations with monitors of varying proximity. Results from the empirical evaluation indicate that kriging in space and time provides excellent estimates of ozone concentrations within a monitoring network, while the more often used techniques failed to capture observed pollutant concentrations. Improved estimation of pollutant concentrations within the region, and thus at subject locations, should result in improved exposure modeling.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Large-scale studies like the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study (SEMOS) have focused attention on quantifying and spedating inventories for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). One approach for evaluating the accuracy of a VOC emission inventory is the development of a chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model for ambient non-methane organic compound (NMOC) measurements. CMB evaluations of ambient hydrocarbon data provide a sample-specific allocation of emissions to individual source categories. This study summarizes the results of an application of the CMB model to the NMOC data from the SEMOS study. Comparison of CMB results with emission inventory values for the Detroit area show that vehicle emissions are well represented by the inventory, as are architectural coatings and coke ovens. Estimated emissions from petroleum refineries and graphic arts industries are much lower in the inventory than determined from the receptor allocation. Under-reporting of fugitive VOC emissions from petroleum refineries is an ongoing problem. Emissions from graphic arts industries are underestimated in the inventory partly because of the broad characterization of the emission factor (i.e., mass emitted/capita), which may be less useful when specific locations and days are under consideration. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of the CMB approach when used prospectively to track the implementation of emission control strategies. While vehicle emission concentrations were unchanged from 1988 to 1993, measurement-based CMB results suggest a decrease in evaporative emissions during this time period resulting from Reid vapor pressure (RVP) reductions (from 11.0 psi in 1988 to 8.6 psi in 1993) and fleet turnover. Changes in emissions from coke plants and petroleum refineries were also seen in the CMB allocations for these sources.  相似文献   

10.
The probabilistic National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Exposure Model applied to carbon monoxide (pNEM/CO) was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to estimate frequency distributions of population exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) and the resulting carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels. To evaluate pNEM/CO, the model was set up to simulate CO exposure data collected during a Denver Personal Exposure Monitoring Study (PEM) conducted during the winter of 1982-1983.

This paper compares computer-simulated exposure distributions obtained by pNEM/CO with the observed cumulative

relative frequency distributions of population exposure to CO from 779 people in the Denver PEM study. The subjects were disaggregated into two categories depending upon whether they lived in a home with a gas stove or an electric stove. The observed and predicted population exposure frequency distributions were compared in terms of 1-hr daily maximum exposure (1DME) and 8-hr daily maximum moving average exposure (8DME) for people living in homes with gas stove or an electric stove. For 1DME, the computer-simulated results from pNEM/CO agreed most closely within the range of 6-13 ppm, but overestimated occurrences at low exposure (<6 ppm) and underestimated occurrences at high exposure (>13 ppm). For 8DME, the predicted exposures agreed best with observed exposures in the range of CO concentration between 5.5 and 7 ppm, and over-predicted occurrences below 5.5 ppm and under-predicted occurrences above 7 ppm.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Combinations of total reactive organic gas (ROG) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions that do not exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone for the meteorological conditions of the August 26-28, 1987 SCAQS episode, have been determined using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) photochemical air quality model. The sensitivity of these combinations to pollutant boundary conditions is examined.  相似文献   

12.
Airborne lidar data collected during the South Coast Air Basin/Southeast Desert Oxidant Transport Study in summer 1981 were used to provide estimates of concentration distributions of particles and oxidants, and of pollutant transport in mountain passes and over mountain slopes. The results support the idea that for certain situations, given a few representative in situ measurements for use in calibration, airborne lidar might be used to develop detailed concentration fields. When combined with appropriate measurements of wind speed profiles with height, useful estimates of pollutant transport flux might also be provided.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/ Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O3 standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O3 formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/ AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O3 concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O3 and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., downwind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O3. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O3 formation in the SJV are highlighted.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Epidemiological studies around landfill sites are limited by several factors, particularly a lack of accurate exposure assessment. Traditionally, exposure estimates are based on distance between place of residence and the landfill site. However, this measure of exposure ignores the effects that environmental factors may have upon exposure. A previous epidemiological study at a landfill site in the United Kingdom provided the basis for a case study to investigate exposure assessment methodologies that could support ongoing and future epidemiological work. Estimation of relative exposure to atmospheric pollutants near the site was refined using the Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System (ADMS) 3.1. Annual average concentrations were calculated around the landfill site, which was modeled as an area source with a steady release rate over its entire active surface. Local meteorological and terrain data were used in the assessment. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to link the results of the modeling to population and other data. Sensitivity studies were included to examine the variation of predicted exposure with several modeling assumptions and hence set other uncertainties in context. No simple relationship existed between the relative individual exposure measured by distance from the site and by dispersion modeling. A reassessment of exposure assessment in epidemiological studies around landfill sites was then undertaken with the refined estimates of exposure. This concluded that use of distance from the site as a proxy for exposure could lead to significant exposure misclassification in comparison with exposure assessment using atmospheric dispersion modeling and GIS. The study also indicated that assessment of peak exposure rates (i.e., extreme concentration levels) might be necessary in some epidemiological work. Optimum strategies for increasing the probability of observing effects in the more highly exposed population can be derived by combining the results of dispersion modeling with population data and, where feasible, knowledge of the toxicology of the substances of interest.  相似文献   

16.
Personal exposure models for sulfates (SO4 =) and aerosol strong acidity (H+) were previously developed using concentration and activity pattern data collected from a personal monitoring study conducted in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, during the summer of 1990. Models were constructed based on time-weighted microenvironmental exposures. For SO4 =, the “best-fit” model included a correction factor, while for H+, it included both a correction factor and a neutralization term.

In this paper, we present the validation of these models using data collected in a personal monitoring study conducted in State College, Pennsylvania, during the summer of 1991. Indoor and outdoor concentration and activity pattern data collected in this study were used as inputs for the “best-fit” models for SO4 = and H+. Predicted personal exposures subsequently were compared to the measured personal exposures from State College to determine their accuracy and precision.

Predicted personal exposures for both SO4 = and H+ were in excellent agreement with measured personal exposures from State College. The models explained 91 and 62 percent of the variability in personal SO4 = and H+ exposures, respectively, and were able to estimate personal exposures substantially better than outdoor concentrations alone. Validation results suggest that the models' correction and neutralization factors are not site specific and support the models' future application as a technique to assess the personal acid aerosol exposures of children living in similar rural and semi-rural communities.  相似文献   

17.
开展环境影响后评价和跟踪评价   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
李悦红 《污染防治技术》2003,16(Z2):160-162
新颁布的<环境影响评价法>,提出了环境影响的跟踪评价和后评价,因此,重点论述开展这两项工作对于提高环境管理水平的重大意义,并且简单介绍了如何开展这两项工作.  相似文献   

18.
Growth of ponderosa pines with visible symptoms of ozone injury was compared with that of asymptomatic trees in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. Time series analysis indicated that there was no significant reduction in annual radial increment of symptomatic trees during recent years compared to past growth and growth of asymptomatic trees. First order autocorrelation and climatic variables accounted for a large proportion of the variance in growth index, and winter precipitation was positively correlated with growth for all size and age classes. Although ozone concentrations are high enough to cause chlorosis and premature needle senescence in ponderosa pine, there has been no significant change in growth associated with ozone injury.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT

This paper describes a near-field validation study involving the steady-state, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guideline model AERMOD and the nonsteady-state puff model CALPUFF. Relative model performance is compared with field measurements collected near Martins Creek, PA—a rural, hilly area along the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border. The principal emission sources in the study were two coal-fired power plants with tall stacks and buoyant plumes. Over 1 yr of sulfur dioxide measurements were collected at eight monitors located at or above the two power plants' stack tops. Concurrent meteorological data were available at two sites. Both sites collected data 10 m above the ground. One of the sites also collected sonic detection and ranging measurements up to 420 m above ground. The ability of the two models to predict monitored sulfur dioxide concentrations was assessed in a four-part model validation. Each part of the validation applied different criteria and statistics to provide a comprehensive evaluation of model performance. Because of their importance in regulatory applications, an emphasis was placed on statistics that demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the upper end of the concentration distribution. On the basis of the combined results of the four-part validation (i.e., weight of evidence), the performance of CALPUFF was judged to be superior to that of AERMOD.

IMPLICATIONS Use of the nonsteady-state CALPUFF model in the near field (<50 km) for regulatory applications has been limited because of the lack of appropriate model validation studies. Considered an alternative model by EPA, use of CALPUFF for regulatory purposes in the near field must be supported by a relevant performance evaluation using measured air quality data. This validation study should help address the lack of information on the performance of CALPUFF in near-field applications. The potential problem with the use of the robust high concentration as a metric in model validations is also examined.  相似文献   

20.
In the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, ozone (O(3)) concentrations have been elevated since the 1950s with peaks reaching 600ppb and summer seasonal averages >100ppb in the 1970s. During that period increased mortality of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines occurred. Between the late 1970s and late1990s, O(3) concentrations decreased with peaks approximately 180ppb and approximately 60ppb seasonal averages. However, since the late 1990s concentrations have not changed. Monitoring during summers of 2002-2006 showed that O(3) concentrations (2-week averages) for individual years were much higher in western sites (58-69ppb) than eastern sites (44-50ppb). Potential O(3) phytotoxicity measured as various exposure indices was very high, reaching SUM00 - 173.5ppmh, SUM60 - 112.7ppmh, W126 - 98.3ppmh, and AOT40 - 75ppmh, representing the highest values reported for mountain areas in North America and Europe.  相似文献   

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