Comparison of Ambient PM Risk with Risks Estimated from PM Components of Smoking and Occupational Exposures

ABSTRACT

Air pollution studies are based on individual-level health response data and group-level exposure data. Therefore, exposure misclassification occurs, and the results may be biased to an unknown magnitude and direction. Testing the validity of such associations requires a study design using individual-level data for both exposure and response. One can test the plausibility of group-level PM risk estimates by comparing them to individual-level estimates of risk from constituents of ambient air. The twofold purpose of this review is to consider the internal consistency of risks estimated from the three major PM cohort studies and to determine individual-level mortality risks associated with ambient concentrations of tobacco smoke and occupational exposures and compare them with risks associated with ambient PM.

The paper demonstrates the risks are not consistent within and between the PM cohort studies. Higher ambient concentration risks (ACRs) from the ambient PM cohort studies are not coherent with ACRs derived from individual-level smoking and occupational risks for total, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality. Individual-level studies suggest increased risk of mortality cannot be measured with reliability at concentrations found in ambient air.     

Assessment of Human Exposure to Ambient Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Recent epidemiological studies have consistently shown that the acute mortality effects of high concentrations of ambient particulate matter (PM), documented in historic air pollution episodes, may also be occurring at the low to moderate concentrations of ambient PM found in modern urban areas. In London in December 1952, the unexpected deaths due to PM exposure could be identified and counted as integers by the coroners. In modern times, the PM-related deaths cannot be as readily identified, and they can only be inferred as fractional average daily increases in mortality rates using sophisticated statistical filtering and analyses of the air quality and mortality data. The causality of the relationship between exposure to ambient PM and acute mortality at these lower modern PM concentrations has been questioned because of a perception that there is little significant correlation in time between the ambient PM concentrations and measured personal exposure to PM from all sources (ambient PM plus indoor-generated PM).

This article shows that the critical factor supporting the plausibility of a linear PM mortality relationship is the expected high correlation in time of people's exposure to PM of ambient origin with measured ambient PM concentrations, as used in the epidemiological time series studies. The presence of indoor and personal sources of PM masks this underlying relationship, leading to confusion in the scientific literature about the strong underlying temporal relationship between personal exposure to PM of ambient origin and ambient PM concentration. The authors show that the sources of PM of non-ambient origin operate independently of the ambient PM concentrations, so that the mortality effect of non-ambient PM, if any, must be independent of the effects of the ambient PM exposures.     

Estimating Separately Personal Exposure to Ambient and Nonambient Particulate Matter for Epidemiology and Risk Assessment: Why and How

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the legal and scientific reasons for separating personal exposure to PM into ambient and nonambient components. It then demonstrates by several examples how well-established models and data typically obtained in exposure field studies can be used to estimate both individual and community average exposure to ambient-generated PM (ambient PM outdoors plus ambient PM that has infiltrated indoors), indoor-generated PM, and personal activity PM. Ambient concentrations are not highly correlated with personal exposure to nonambient PM or total PM but are highly correlated with personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Therefore, ambient concentrations may be used in epidemiology as an appropriate surrogate for personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Suggestions are offered as to how exposure to ambient-generated PM may be obtained and used in epidemiology and risk assessment.     

Computer Simulations of Particle Deposition in the Developing Human Lung

ABSTRACT

An age-dependent theoretical model has been developed to predict PM dosimetry in children's lungs. Computer codes have been written that describe the dimensions of individual airways and the geometry of branching airway networks within developing lungs. Breathing parameters have also been formulated as functions of subject age. Our computer simulations suggest that particle size, age, and activity level markedly affect deposition patterns of inhaled air pollutants. For example, the predicted lung deposition fraction is 38% in an adult but is nearly twice as high (73%) in a 7-month-old for 2-um particles inhaled during heavy breathing. Tracheobronchial (TB) and pulmonary (or alveolated airways, P) deposition patterns may also be calculated using the model. Due to different clearance processes in the TB and P airways (i.e., mucociliary transport and macrophage action, respectively), the determination of compartmental dose is important for PM risk assessment analyses. Furthermore, the results of such simulations may aid in the setting of regulatory standards for air pollutants, as the data provide a scientific basis for estimating dose delivered to a designated sensitive subpopulation (children).     

Development of a PM2 5 Emissions Inventory for the South Coast Air Basin

ABSTRACT

With the promulgation of a national PM_2.5 ambient air quality standard, it is important that PM_2.5 emissions inventories be developed as a tool for understanding the magnitude of potential PM2.5 violations. Current PM₁₀ inventories include only emissions of primary particulate matter (1 ^ï PM), whereas, based on ambient measurements, both PM₁₀ and PM2.5 emissions inventories will need to include sources of both 1^ï PM and secondary particulate matter (2^ï PM). Furthermore, the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) current edition of AP-42 includes size distribution data for 1o PM that overestimate the PM_2.5 fraction of fugitive dust sources by at least a factor of 2 based on recent studies.

This paper presents a PM_2.5 emissions inventory developed for the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) that for the first time includes both 1^ï PM and 2^ï PM. The former is calculated by multiplying PM₁₀ emissions estimates by the PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratios for different sources. The latter is calculated from estimated emission rates of gas-phase aerosol precursor and gas to aerosol conversion rates consistent with the measured chemical composition of ambient PM_2.5 concentrations observed in the SCAB. The major finding of this PM_2.5 emissions inventory is that the ^2ï aerosol component is more than twice the ^1ï aerosol component, which may result in widely different control strategies being required for fine PM and coarse PM.     

Sensitivity of Source Apportionment of Urban Particulate Matter to Uncertainty in Motor Vehicle Emissions Profiles

Abstract

A sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize sources of uncertainty in results of a molecular marker source apportionment model of ambient particulate matter using mobile source emissions profiles obtained as part of the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study. A chemical mass balance (CMB) model was used to determine source contributions to samples of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) collected over 3 weeks at two sites in the Los Angeles area in July 2001. The ambient samples were composited for organic compound analysis by the day of the week to investigate weekly trends in source contributions. The sensitivity analysis specifically examined the impact of the uncertainty in mobile source emissions profiles on the CMB model results. The key parameter impacting model sensitivity was the source profile for gasoline smoker vehicles. High-emitting gasoline smoker vehicles with visible plumes were seen to be a significant source of PM in the area, but use of different measured profiles for smoker vehicles in the model gave very different results for apportionment of gasoline, diesel, and smoker vehicle tailpipe emissions. In addition, the contributions of gasoline and diesel emissions to total ambient PM varied as a function of the site and the day of the week.     

Use of a Continuous Nephelometer to Measure Personal Exposure to Particles During the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Baltimore and Fresno Panel Studies

ABSTRACT

In population exposure studies, personal exposure to PM is typically measured as a 12- to 24-hr integrated mass concentration. To better understand short-term variation in personal PM exposure, continuous (1-min averaging time) nephelometers were worn by 15 participants as part of two U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) longitudinal PM exposure studies conducted in Baltimore County, MD, and Fresno, CA. Participants also wore iner-tial impactor samplers (24-hr integrated filter samples) and recorded their daily activities in 15-min intervals. In Baltimore, the nephelometers correlated well (R² = 0.66) with the PM₂₅ impactors. Time-series plots of personal nephelometer data showed each participant's PM exposure to consist of a series of peaks of relatively short duration. Activities corresponding to a significant instrument response included cooking, outdoor activities, transportation, laundry, cleaning, shopping, gardening, moving between microenvironments, and removing/putting on the instrument. On average, 63-66% of the daily PM exposure occurred indoors at home (about 2/3 of which occurred during waking hours), primarily due to the large amount of time spent in that location (an average of 7277%). Although not a reference method for measuring mass concentration, the nephelometer did help identify PM sources and the relative contribution of those sources to an individual's personal exposure.     

Source identification of personal exposure to fine particulate matter using organic tracers

Personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is due to both indoor and outdoor sources. Contributions of sources to personal exposure can be quite different from those observed at ambient sampling locations. The primary goal of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of using trace organic speciation data to help identify sources influencing PM2.5 exposure concentrations. Sixty-four 24-h PM2.5 samples were obtained on seven different subjects in and around Boulder, CO. The exposure samples were analyzed for PM2.5 mass, elemental and organic carbon, organic tracer compounds, water-soluble metals, ammonia, and nitrate. This study is the first to measure a broad distribution of organic tracer compounds in PM2.5 personal samples. PM2.5 mass exposure concentrations averaged 8.4 μg m^?3. Organic carbon was the dominant constituent of the PM2.5 mass. Forty-four organic species and 19 water-soluble metals were quantifiable in more than half of the samples. Fifty-four organic species and 16 water-soluble metals had measurement signal-to-noise ratios larger than two after blank subtraction.The dataset was analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the factors that account for the greatest variance. Eight significant factors were identified; each factor was matched to its likely source based primarily on the marker species that loaded the factor. The results were consistent with the expectation that multiple marker species for the same source loaded the same factor. Meat cooking was an important source of variability. The factor that represents meat cooking was highly correlated with organic carbon concentrations (r = 0.84). The correlation between ambient PM2.5 and PM2.5 exposure was relatively weak (r = 0.15). Time participants spent performing various activities was generally not well correlated with PCA factor scores, likely because activity duration does not measure emissions intensity. The PCA results demonstrate that organic tracers can aid in identifying factors that influence personal exposures to PM2.5.     

The 1999 Fresno Particulate Matter Exposure Studies: Comparison of Community,Outdoor, and Residential PM Mass Measurements

ABSTRACT

Two collaborative studies have been conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory to determine personal exposures and physiological responses to par-ticulate matter (PM) of elderly persons living in a retirement facility in Fresno, CA. Measurements of PM and other criteria air pollutants were made inside selected individual residences within the retirement facility and at a central outdoor site on the premises. In addition, personal PM exposure monitoring was conducted for a subset of the participants, and ambient PM monitoring data were available for comparison from the NERL PM research monitoring platform in central Fresno. Both a winter (February 1-28, 1999) and a spring (April 19-May 16, 1999) study were completed so that seasonal effects could be     

A Statistical Model for FEV1 Response to Arbitrary Dynamic Ozone Exposure Conditions

ABSTRACT

Lung function response to inhaled ozone at ambient air pollution levels is known to be a function of ozone concentration, exposure duration, and minute ventilation. Most data-driven exposure-response models address exposures under static condition (i.e., with a constant ozone concentration and exercise pattern). Such models are simplifications, as both ambient ozone concentrations and normal human activity patterns change with time. The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model of response with the advantages of a statistical model (a relatively simple structure with few parameters). A previously proposed mechanistic model for changes in specific airways resistance was adapted to describe the percent change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁). This model was then reduced using the fit to three existing exposure-response data sets as criterion. The resulting model consists of a single linear differential equation together with an algebraic logistic equation. Under restricted static conditions the model reduces to a logistic model presented earlier by the authors.     

Health Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution: Lines that Connect

Abstract

Efforts to understand and mitigate the health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution have a rich and interesting history. This review focuses on six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There has been substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonary health. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.     

A Study of the Association between Daily Mortality and Ambient Air Pollutant Concentrations in Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

We have studied the possible association of daily mortality with ambient pollutant concentrations (PM₁₀, CO, O₃, SO₂, NO₂, and fine [PM_{2 5}] and coarse PM) and weather variables (temperature and dew point) in the Pittsburgh, PA, area for two age groups—less than 75, and 75 and over—for the 3-year period of 1989-1991. Correlation functions among pollutant concentrations show important seasonal dependence, and this fact necessitates the use of seasonal models to better identify the link between ambient pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. An analysis of the seasonal model results for the younger-age group reveals significant multicollinearity problems among the highly correlated concentrations of PM₁₀, CO, and NO₂ (and O₃ in spring and summer), and calls into question the rather consistent results of the single- and multi-pollutant non-seasonal models that show a significant positive association between PM₁₀ and daily mortality. For the older-age group, dew point consistently shows a significant association with daily mortality in all models. Collinearity problems appear in the multi-pollutant seasonal and non-seasonal models such that a significant, positive PM₁₀ coefficient is accompanied by a significant, negative coefficient of another ambient pollutant, and the identity of this other pollutant changes with season. The PM₂₅ data set is half that of PM₁₀. Identical-model runs for both data sets reveal instability in the pollutant coefficients, especially for the younger age group. The concern for the instability of the pollutant coefficients due to a small signal-to-noise ratio makes it impossible to ascertain credibly the relative associations of the fine- and coarse-particle modes with daily mortality. In this connection, we call for caution in the interpretation of model results for causal inference when the models use fully or partially estimated PM values to fill large data gaps.     

A procedure for use in estimating human exposure to particulate matter of ambient origin

Modern epidemiology has shown that fluctuations of mortality data are statistically significantly correlated with fluctuations of ambient particulate matter (PM) concentration data. This relation cannot be confounded by exposure to PM of indoor origin because the concentrations of ambient PM are not correlated with concentrations of PM of indoor origin. It has been suggested, given the above understanding, that modern PM exposure measurements and analysis should create separate estimates of exposure to all PM of ambient origin and exposure to all PM of nonambient origin (primarily of indoor origin), and not exposure to total PM. This paper reviews the developments of the form of the general microenvironmental mass balance equation that can be utilized for estimating human exposure to PM of ambient origin and for estimating the portion of total PM exposure that is attributable to nonambient origin PM. The equation is perfectly general and can be applied to conditions of time-varying factors that influence exposure, such as rapidly changing air-exchange rates in a home as doors and windows are opened and closed, and turning on and off air cleaners in a home. It is suggested that this procedure be applied in exposure assessment studies and validated using independent techniques of estimating exposure to PM of ambient origin available in the literature.     

Predicting particulate (PM10) personal exposure distributions using a random component superposition statistical model

This paper presents a new statistical model designed to extend our understanding from prior personal exposure field measurements of urban populations to other cities where ambient monitoring data, but no personal exposure measurements, exist. The model partitions personal exposure into two distinct components: ambient concentration and nonambient concentration. It is assumed the ambient and nonambient concentration components are uncorrelated and add together; therefore, the model is called a random component superposition (RCS) model. The 24-hr ambient outdoor concentration is multiplied by a dimensionless "attenuation factor" between 0 and 1 to account for deposition of particles as the ambient air infiltrates indoors. The RCS model is applied to field PM10 measurement data from three large-scale personal exposure field studies: THEES (Total Human Environmental Exposure Study) in Phillipsburg, NJ; PTEAM (Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology) in Riverside, CA; and the Ethyl Corporation study in Toronto, Canada. Because indoor sources and activities (smoking, cooking, cleaning, the personal cloud, etc.) may be similar in similar populations, it was hypothesized that the statistical distribution of nonambient personal exposure is invariant across cities. Using a fixed 24-hr attenuation factor as a first approximation derived from regression analysis for the respondents, the distributions of nonambient PM10 personal exposures were obtained for each city. Although the mean ambient PM10 concentrations in the three cities varied from 27.9 micrograms/m3 in Toronto to 60.9 micrograms/m3 in Phillipsburg to 94.1 micrograms/m3 in Riverside, the mean nonambient components of personal exposures were found to be closer: 52.6 micrograms/m3 in Toronto; 52.4 micrograms/m3 in Phillipsburg; and 59.2 micrograms/m3 in Riverside. The three frequency distributions of the nonambient components of exposure also were similar in shape, giving support to the hypothesis that nonambient concentrations are similar across different cities and populations. These results indicate that, if the ambient concentrations were completely controlled and set to zero in all three cities, the median of the remaining personal exposures to PM10 would range from 32.0 micrograms/m3 (Toronto) to 34.4 micrograms/m3 (Phillipsburg) to 48.8 micrograms/m3 (Riverside). The highest-exposed 30% of the population in the three cities would still be exposed to 24-hr average PM10 concentrations of 47-74 micrograms/m3; the highest 20% would be exposed to concentrations of 56-92 micrograms/m3; the highest 10% to concentrations of 88-131 micrograms/m3; and the highest 5% to 133-175 micrograms/m3, due only to indoor sources and activities. The distribution for the difference between personal exposures and indoor concentrations, or the "personal cloud," also was similar in the three cities, with a mean of 30-35 micrograms/m3, suggesting that the personal cloud accounts for more than half of the nonambient component of PM10 personal exposure in the three cities. Using only the ambient measurements in Toronto, the nonambient data from THEES in Phillipsburg was used to predict the entire personal exposure distribution in Toronto. The PM10 exposure distribution predicted by the model showed reasonable agreement with the PM10 personal exposure distribution measured in Toronto. These initial results suggest that the RCS model may be a powerful tool for predicting personal exposure distributions and statistics in other cities where only ambient particle data are available.     

Assessment of human exposure to ambient particulate matter

Recent epidemiological studies have consistently shown that the acute mortality effects of high concentrations of ambient particulate matter (PM), documented in historic air pollution episodes, may also be occurring at the low to moderate concentrations of ambient PM found in modern urban areas. In London in December 1952, the unexpected deaths due to PM exposure could be identified and counted as integers by the coroners. In modern times, the PM-related deaths cannot be as readily identified, and they can only be inferred as fractional average daily increases in mortality rates using sophisticated statistical filtering and analyses of the air quality and mortality data. The causality of the relationship between exposure to ambient PM and acute mortality at these lower modern PM concentrations has been questioned because of a perception that there is little significant correlation in time between the ambient PM concentrations and measured personal exposure to PM from all sources (ambient PM plus indoor-generated PM). This article shows that the critical factor supporting the plausibility of a linear PM mortality relationship is the expected high correlation in time of people's exposure to PM of ambient origin with measured ambient PM concentrations, as used in the epidemiological time series studies. The presence of indoor and personal sources of PM masks this underlying relationship, leading to confusion in the scientific literature about the strong underlying temporal relationship between personal exposure to PM of ambient origin and ambient PM concentration. The authors show that the sources of PM of non-ambient origin operate independently of the ambient PM concentrations, so that the mortality effect of non-ambient PM, if any, must be independent of the effects of the ambient PM exposures.     

Human Exposure to Sulfates from Coal-Fired Power Plants

Abstract

Increased interest in the health effects of ambient par–ticulate mass (PM) has focused attention on the evaluation of existing mass measurement methodologies and the definition of PM in ambient air. The Rupprecht and Patashnick Tapered Element Oscillating MicroBalance (TEOM^®) method for PM is compared with time–integrated gravimetric (manual) PM methods in large urban areas during different seasons. Comparisons are conducted for both PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations.

In urban areas, a substantial fraction of ambient PM can be semi–volatile material. A larger fraction of this component of PM₁₀ may be lost from the TEOM–heated filter than the Federal Reference Method (FRM). The observed relationship between TEOM and FRM methods varied widely among sites and seasons. In East Coast urban areas during the summer, the methods were highly correlated with good agreement. In the winter, correlation was somewhat lower, with TEOM PM concentrations generally lower than the FRM. Rubidoux, CA, and two Mexican sites (Tlalnepantla and Merced) had the highest levels of PM₁₀ and the largest difference between TEOM and manual methods.

PM_2.5 data from collocation of 24–hour manual samples with the TEOM are also presented. As most of the semi–volatile PM is in the fine fraction, differences between these methods are larger for PM_2.5 than for PM₁₀.     

Estimating the concentration of indoor particles of outdoor origin: A review

Recent toxicological results highlight the importance of separating exposure to indoor- and outdoor-generated particles, due to their different physicochemical and toxicological properties. In this framework, a number of studies have attempted to estimate the relative contribution of particles of indoor and outdoor origins to indoor concentrations, using either statistical analysis of indoor and outdoor concentration time-series or mass balance equations. The aim of this work is to review and compare the methodologies developed in order to determine the ambient particle infiltration factor (F _INF) (i.e., the fraction of ambient particles that enter indoors and remains suspended). The different approaches are grouped into four categories according to their methodological principles: (1) steady-state assumption using the steady-state form of the mass balance equation; (2) dynamic solution of the mass balance equation using complex statistical techniques; (3) experimental studies using conditions that simplify model calculations (e.g., decreasing the number of unknowns); and (4) infiltration surrogates using a particulate matter (PM) constituent with no indoor sources to act as surrogate of indoor PM of outdoor origin. Examination of the various methodologies and results reveals that estimating infiltration parameters is still challenging. The main difficulty lies in the separate calculation of penetration efficiency (P) and deposition rate (k). The values for these two parameters that are reported in the literature vary significantly. Deposition rate presents the widest range of values, both between studies and size fractions. Penetration efficiency seems to be more accurately calculated through the application of dynamic models. Overall, estimates of the infiltration factor generated using dynamic models and infiltration surrogates show good agreement. This is a strong argument in favor of the latter methodology, which is simple and easy to apply when chemical speciation data are available.

Implications: ?Taking into account that increased health risks may be related with ambient particles, a reliable estimation of the main parameters governing ambient particle infiltration indoors may assist towards the development of appropriate regulation and control measures, targeted to specific sources/factors contributing to increased exposures. The overall study of the methodological approaches estimating particle infiltration indoors suggests that dynamic models provide a more complete and realistic picture of ambient particle infiltration indoors, whereas the use of specific PM constituents to act as surrogates of indoor particles of outdoor origin seems also a promising new methodology.     

Comparison of ambient PM risk with risks estimated from PM components of smoking and occupational exposures

Air pollution studies are based on individual-level health response data and group-level exposure data. Therefore, exposure misclassification occurs, and the results may be biased to an unknown magnitude and direction. Testing the validity of such associations requires a study design using individual-level data for both exposure and response. One can test the plausibility of group-level PM risk estimates by comparing them to individual-level estimates of risk from constituents of ambient air. The twofold purpose of this review is to consider the internal consistency of risks estimated from the three major PM cohort studies and to determine individual-level mortality risks associated with ambient concentrations of tobacco smoke and occupational exposures and compare them with risks associated with ambient PM. The paper demonstrates the risks are not consistent within and between the PM cohort studies. Higher ambient concentration risks (ACRs) from the ambient PM cohort studies are not coherent with ACRs derived from individual-level smoking and occupational risks for total, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality. Individual-level studies suggest increased risk of mortality cannot be measured with reliability at concentrations found in ambient air.     

Exposure of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients to particulate matter: relationships between personal and ambient air concentrations

Mot time-series studies of particulate air pollution and acute health outcomes assess exposure of the study population using fixed-site outdoor measurements. To address the issue of exposure misclassification, we evaluate the relationship between ambient particle concentrations and personal exposures of a population expected to be at risk of particle health effects. Sampling was conducted within the Vancouver metropolitan area during April-September 1998. Sixteen subjects (non-smoking, ages 54-86) with physician-diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) wore personal PM2.5 monitors for seven 24-hr periods, randomly spaced approximately 1.5 weeks apart. Time-activity logs and dwelling characteristics data were also obtained for each subject. Daily 24-hr ambient PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were measured at five fixed sites spaced throughout the study region. SO4(2-), which is found almost exclusively in the fine particle fraction and which does not have major indoor sources, was measured in all PM2.5 samples as an indicator of accumulation mode particulate matter of ambient origin. The mean personal and ambient PM2.5 concentrations were 18 micrograms/m3 and 11 micrograms/m3, respectively. In analyses relating personal and ambient measurements, ambient concentrations were expressed either as an average of the values obtained from five ambient monitoring sites for each day of personal sampling, or as the concentration obtained at the ambient site closest to each subject's home. The mean personal to ambient concentration ratio of all samples was 1.75 (range = 0.24 to 10.60) for PM2.5, and 0.75 (range = 0.09 to 1.42) for SO4(2-). Regression analyses were conducted for each subject separately and on pooled data. The median correlation (Pearson's r) between personal and average ambient PM2.5 concentrations was 0.48 (range = -0.68 to 0.83). Using SO4(2-) as the exposure metric, the median r between personal and average ambient concentrations was 0.96 (range = 0.66 to 1.0). Use of the closest ambient site did not improve the median correlation of the group for either PM2.5 or SO4(2-). All pooled analyses resulted in lower correlation coefficients than the median correlation coefficient of individual regressions. Personal SO4(2-) was more highly correlated with all ambient measures than PM2.5. Inclusion of time-activity and dwelling characteristics data did not result in a useful predictive regression model for PM2.5 personal exposure, but improved the model fit from simply regressing against ambient concentration (R2 = 0.27). The model for SO4(2-) was predictive (R2 = 0.82), as personal exposures were largely explained by ambient levels. These results indicate a relatively low correlation between personal exposure and ambient PM2.5 that is not improved by assigning exposure to the closest ambient monitor. The correlation between personal exposure and ambient concentration is high, however, when using SO4(2-), an indicator of accumulation mode particulate matter of ambient origin.     

Predicting Particulate (PM10) Personal Exposure Distributions Using a Random Component Superposition Statistical Model

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new statistical model designed to extend our understanding from prior personal exposure field measurements of urban populations to other cities where ambient monitoring data, but no personal exposure measurements, exist. The model partitions personal exposure into two distinct components: ambient concentration and nonambient concentration. It is assumed the ambient and nonambient concentration components are uncorrelated and add together; therefore, the model is called a random component superposition (RCS) model. The 24-hr ambient outdoor concentration is multiplied by a dimensionless “attenuation factor” between 0 and 1 to account for deposition of particles as the ambient air infiltrates indoors. The RCS model is applied to field PM₁₀ measurement data from three large-scale personal exposure field studies: THEES (Total Human Environmental Exposure Study) in Phillipsburg, NJ; PTEAM (Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology) in Riverside, CA; and the Ethyl Corporation study in Toronto, Canada. Because indoor sources and activities (smoking, cooking, cleaning, the personal cloud, etc.) may be similar in similar populations, it was hypothesized that the statistical distribution of nonambient personal exposure is invariant across cities.