Closing Remarks

Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to photochemical smog pollution close to the earth's surface and to stratospheric ozone depletion. There is reason to suspect that the next round of scientific concern will be devoted to the perturbations in the “free troposphere.” Tropospheric ozone has been building up in many regions of the northern hemisphere. Ozone changes in the upper troposphere will exert a considerable impact on global warming. This could affect moisture levels, cloud amount and distribution, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics on different scales.

This paper analyzes: (1) the physical and chemical processes contributing to changes in tropospheric ozone concentration; (2) the observational evidence of previous ozone change; and (3) results drawn from computer modelling of past and future radiative forcing caused by rising ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere.

The solar and longwave radiative model developed by Wang et al. (1991) was used for calculating the change in radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system that can be ascribed to changing concentrations in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nitric oxide emission from aircraft are a prime suspect for the observed increases in upper tropospheric ozone. The inference can be drawn that a radiative forcing of 0.2 to 0.35 Wm^-2 will result from a doubling of aircraft emissions over the next two decades. This will amount to 10 to 25 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to CO₂ alone for the same period. The effect of doubling aircraft emissions will increase as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover from the recent buildup of harmful chlorofluorocarbons. A large fraction of the radiative forcing that occurred during the 1970 to 1990 period can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone as opposed to increases in other greenhouse gases.     

Greenhouse Gas Dynamics of Municipal Solid Waste Alternatives

ABSTRACT

Previous greenhouse gas studies comparing landfilling with combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) are limited to examinations of the emissions weighted by their relative radiative activity. This paper adds another dimension by analyzing the atmospheric response to these emissions. The heart of the analysis is a time-dependent model using a perturbation analysis of the IS92a results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using as inputs the emissions from the two technologies, the model calculates atmospheric concentration histories. Scenarios for a landfill and a combustor envision each accepting 1000 Mg refuse/day for a 30-year operating period followed by a 70-year postclosure period. The baseline scenario examines the basic greenhouse impact of each technology. The other scenario adds active gas collection at the landfill and energy offset credits for avoided power plant carbon emissions. For both scenarios, CH₄ and trace gases from the landfill persist in the atmosphere, and they are relatively potent at forcing IR heating. The combination of these features place the landfill much higher than previously expected on the greenhouse impact scale. For the baseline scenario, the time-integrated radiative forcing from landfilling is 115 times that of combustion, and this ratio is 45 for the second scenario.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Present and potential future contributions of sulfate,black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality,premature mortality and radiative forcing

Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate (SO₄^2?) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO₄^2? and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO₂, SO₄^2?, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO₄^2? and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of ?74 mW m^?2 in 2000 and between ?15 and ?97 mW m^?2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.     

Greenhouse gas dynamics of municipal solid waste alternatives.

Previous greenhouse gas studies comparing landfilling with combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) are limited to examinations of the emissions weighted by their relative radiative activity. This paper adds another dimension by analyzing the atmospheric response to these emissions. The heart of the analysis is a time-dependent model using a perturbation analysis of the IS92a results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using as inputs the emissions from the two technologies, the model calculates atmospheric concentration histories. Scenarios for a landfill and a combustor envision each accepting 1000 Mg refuse/day for a 30-year operating period followed by a 70-year postclosure period. The baseline scenario examines the basic greenhouse impact of each technology. The other scenario adds active gas collection at the landfill and energy offset credits for avoided power plant carbon emissions. For both scenarios, CH4 and trace gases from the landfill persist in the atmosphere, and they are relatively potent at forcing IR heating. The combination of these features place the landfill much higher than previously expected on the greenhouse impact scale. For the baseline scenario, the time-integrated radiative forcing from landfilling is 115 times that of combustion, and this ratio is 45 for the second scenario.     

Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030

We have used a global version of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model to estimate anthropogenic emissions of the air pollution precursors sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), primary carbonaceous particles of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and methane (CH₄). We developed two scenarios to constrain the possible range of future emissions. As a baseline, we investigated the future emission levels that would result from the implementation of the already adopted emission control legislation in each country, based on the current national expectations of economic development. Alternatively, we explored the lowest emission levels that could be achieved with the most advanced emission control technologies that are on the market today. This paper describes data sources and our assumptions on activity data, emission factors and the penetration of pollution control measures. We estimate that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, global anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x would slightly decrease between 2000 and 2030. For carbonaceous particles and CO, reductions between 20% and 35% are computed, while for CH₄ an increase of about 50% is calculated. Full application of currently available emission control technologies, however, could achieve substantially lower emissions levels, with decreases up to 30% for CH₄, 40% for CO and BC, and nearly 80% for SO₂.     

Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia

Household fuel use in developing countries, particularly as biomass and coal, is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting health and climate. Using state-of-the-art emission inventories, a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere, and a global radiative transfer model based on methods presented in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007-AR4), we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols, these estimates indicate that shorter-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall seem to exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are, however, major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning, and about the sustainability of household fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting). In addition, there is still substantial uncertainty associated with the BC radiative forcing. As a result we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. While recognizing the value of integrating climate change and air pollution policies, we are concerned that for a ‘Kyoto style’ post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate. Additional measurement, modelling, and policy research is urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties so that the net impact on climate of emissions and mitigation measures in this sector can be accurately assessed.     

Japanese carbon storage in materials

The NEAT model (Nonenergy-use Emission Accounting Tables) has been developed in order to estimate CO2 emissions caused by so-called nonenergy use of fossil fuels. The model is based on material flow accounting. The model has been applied to a number of countries in order to validate and improve its use. This paper discusses the case study for Japan. The NEAT analysis suggests that emissions in 1996 were 23 Mt higher than previously estimated based on the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This quantity equals 1.9% of the total Japanese greenhouse gas emission. It is recommended to adjust the Japanese emission accounting practice and to apply more detailed emission estimation methods in future years. Given similar results for other countries it is also recommended to improve the IPCC guidelines.     

The Impact of California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline on Real-World Vehicle Emissions

ABSTRACT

In mid-1996, California implemented Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG). The new fuel was designed to further decrease emissions of hydrocarbons (HC_s), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and other toxic species. In addition, it was formulated to reduce the ozone-forming potential of the HCs emitted by vehicles. Previous studies have observed that emissions from on-road vehicles can differ significantly from those predicted by mobile source emissions models, and so it is important to quantify the change in emissions in a real-world setting. In October 1995, prior to the introduction of California Phase 2 RFG, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) performed a study of vehicle emissions in Los Angeles' Sepulveda Tunnel. This study provided a baseline against which the results of a second experiment, conducted in July 1996, could be compared to evaluate the impact of California Phase 2 RFG on emissions from real-world vehicles. Compared with the 1995 experiment, CO and NO_x emissions exhibited statistically significant decreases, while the decrease in non-methane hydrocarbon emissions was not statistically significant.

Changes in the speciated HC emissions were evaluated. The benzene emission rate decreased by 27% and the overall emission rate of aromatic compounds decreased by 22% comparing the runs with similar speeds. Emissions of alkenes were virtually unchanged; however, emissions of combustion related unsaturates (e.g., acetylene, ethene) increased, while heavier alkenes decreased. The emission rate of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exhibited a larger increase. Overall changes in the ozone-forming potential of the emissions were not significantly different, with the increased contributions to reactivity from paraffins, ole-fins, and MTBE being offset by a large decrease in reactivity due to aromatics.     

A rational procedure for estimation of greenhouse-gas emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants.

Municipal wastewater treatment may lead to the emission of greenhouse gases. The current Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland) approach attributes only methane emissions to wastewater treatment, but this approach may overestimate greenhouse gas emissions from the highly aerobic processes primarily used in North America. To better estimate greenhouse gas emissions, a procedure is developed that can be used either with plant-specific data or more general regional data. The procedure was evaluated using full-scale data from 16 Canadian wastewater treatment facilities and then applied to all 10 Canadian provinces. The principal greenhouse gas emitted from municipal wastewater treatment plants was estimated to be carbon dioxide (CO2), with very little methane expected. The emission rates ranged from 0.005 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 treated for primary treatment facilities to 0.26 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for conventional activated sludge, with anaerobic sludge digestion to over 0.8 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for extended aeration with aerobic digestion. Increasing the effectiveness of biogas generation and use will decrease the greenhouse gas emissions that may be assigned to the wastewater treatment plant.     

Effects of biodiesel made from swine and chicken fat residues on carbon monoxide,carbon dioxide,and nitrogen oxide emissions

The effects of two alternative sources of animal fat-derived biodiesel feedstock on CO₂, CO, NO_x tailpipe emissions as well as fuel consumption were investigated. Biodiesel blends were produced from chicken and swine fat waste (FW-1) or floating fat (FW-2) collected from slaughterhouse wastewater treatment processes. Tests were conducted in an unmodified stationary diesel engine operating under idling conditions in attempt to simulate slow traffic in urban areas. Significant reductions in CO (up to 47% for B100; FW-2) and NO_x (up to 20% for B5; FW-2 or B100; FW-1) were attained when using biodiesel fuels at the expense of 5% increase in fuel consumption. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to elucidate possible associations among gas (CO₂, CO, and NO_x) emissions, cetane number and iodine index with different sources of feedstock typically employed in the biodiesel industry. NO_x, cetane number and iodine index were inversely proportional to CO₂ and biodiesel concentration. High NO_x emissions were reported from high iodine index biodiesel derived especially from forestry, fishery and some agriculture feedstocks, while the biodiesel derived from animal sources consistently presented lower iodine index mitigating NO_x emissions. The obtained results point out the applicability of biodiesel fuels derived from fat-rich residues originated from animal production on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The information may encourage practitioners from biodiesel industry whilst contributing towards development of sustainable animal production.

Implications: Emissions from motor vehicles can contribute considerably to the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The use of biodiesel to replace or augment diesel can not only decrease our dependency on fossil fuels but also help decrease air pollution. Thus, different sources of feedstocks are constantly being explored for affordable biodiesel production. However, the amount of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and/or nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions can vary largely depending on type of feedstock used to produce biodiesel. In this work, the authors demonstrated animal fat feasibility in replacing petrodiesel with less impact regarding greenhouse gas emissions than other sources.     

Seasonal changes of CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O fluxes in relation to land-use change in tropical peatlands located in coastal area of South Kalimantan

Tropical peatland could be a source of greenhouse gases emission because it contains large amounts of soil carbon and nitrogen. However these emissions are strongly influenced by soil moisture conditions. Tropical climate is characterized typically by wet and dry seasons. Seasonal changes in the emission of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were investigated over a year at three sites (secondary forest, paddy field and upland field) in the tropical peatland in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. The amount of these gases emitted from the fields varied widely according to the seasonal pattern of precipitation, especially methane emission rates were positively correlated with precipitation. Converting from secondary forest peatland to paddy field tended to increase annual emissions of CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere (from 1.2 to 1.5 kg CO(2)-C m(-2)y(-1) and from 1.2 to 1.9 g CH(4)-C m(-2)y(-1)), while changing land-use from secondary forest to upland tended to decrease these gases emissions (from 1.2 to 1.0 kg CO(2)-C m(-2)y(-1) and from 1.2 to 0.6 g CH(4)-C m(-2)y(-1)), but no clear trend was observed for N(2)O which kept negative value as annual rates at three sites.     

Relationship between carbon dioxide/methane emissions and the water quality/sediment characteristics of Taiwan's main rivers

River and sediment have unique carbon dynamics and are important sources of the dominant greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). To understand the relationship between CO2/CH4 emissions and water quality/sediment characteristics, we have investigated critical parameters in the river water. Eight parameters of water quality (dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential [ORP], chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand [BOD5], suspended solid, nitrate [NO3-], NH4+, and bacteria) and four sediment characteristics (total organic carbon [TOC], total nitrogen [T-N], NO3-, and ammonium [NH4+]) were measured in two of the larger rivers in Taiwan, and relevant environmental conditions were recorded. The experimental results indicated that CO2 emissions from the river were mainly affected by BOD5 concentrations and the levels of bacteria. CH4 emissions, on the other hand, were greatly affected by the ORP in the river. The correlation between CO2 emissions and sediment characteristics was insignificant (R2 < 0.3). However, TOC and T-N in the sediment may lead to increases in CH4 emissions into the atmosphere. A deeper analysis of the relationship between the different parameters and GHG emissions by ANOVA and the multiple regression method revealed that CO2 emission (y) was significantly related to bacteria number (x1) and BOD concentration (X2). The regression equation takes the form y = 0.00032x1 + 3.18089x2 + 25.37304. Also, the regression relationship between CH4 emission (y) and ORP (x) in the river can be described as y = -0.825216x + 169.02257. The relationship between CH4 emission and sediment characteristics may be described as y = 5.073962x1(TOC) + 2.871245x2(T-N) - 12.3262. Extra sampling data were collected to examine the feasibility of the developed multiple regression equations. The experimental results suggest that the emissions of such GHGs as CO2 and CH4 from rivers can be predicted using the regression equations developed here. Moreover, the emissions may be reduced by manipulating the proper factors.     

Influencing factors of carbon emissions and their trends in China and India: a machine learning method

China and India are the largest coal consumers and the most populated countries in the world. With industrial and population growth, the need for energy has increased, which has inevitably led to an increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions because both countries depend on fossil fuel consumption. This paper investigates the impact of energy consumption, financial development (FD), gross domestic product (GDP), population, and renewable energy on CO₂ emissions. The study applies the long short-term memory (LSTM) method, a novel machine learning (ML) approach, to examine which influencing driver has the greatest and smallest impact on CO₂ emissions; correspondingly, this study builds a model for CO₂ emission reduction. Data collected between 1990 and 2014 were analyzed, and the results indicated that energy consumption had the greatest effect and renewable energy had the smallest impact on CO₂ emissions in both countries. Subsequently, we increased the renewable energy coefficient by one and decreased the energy consumption coefficient by one while keeping all other factors constant, and the results predicted with the LSTM model confirmed the significant reduction in CO₂ emissions. Finally, this study forecasted a CO₂ emission trend, with a slowdown predicted in China by 2022; however, CO₂ emission’s reduction is not possible in India until 2023. These results suggest that shifting from nonrenewable to renewable sources and lowering coal consumption can reduce CO₂ emissions without harming economic development.

     

Measurement of black carbon aerosols near two Chinese megacities and the implications for improving emission inventories

Knowledge of the distribution and sources of black carbon (BC) is essential to understanding its impact on radiative forcing and the establishment of a control strategy. In this study, we analyze atmospheric BC and its relationships with fine particles (PM_2.5) and trace gases (CO, NO_y and SO₂) measured in the summer of 2005 in two areas frequently influenced by plumes from Beijing and Shanghai, the two largest cities in China. The results revealed different BC source characteristics for the two megacities. The average concentration of BC was 2.37 (±1.79) and 5.47 (±4.00) μg m^?3, accounting for 3.1% and 7.8% of the PM_2.5 mass, in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. The good correlation between BC, CO and NO_y (R² = 0.54–0.77) and the poor correlation between BC and SO₂ suggest that diesel vehicles and marine vessels are the dominant sources of BC in the two urban areas during summer. The BC/CO mass ratio in the air mass from Shanghai was found to be much higher than that in the air mass from Beijing (0.0101 versus 0.0037 ΔgBC/ΔgCO), which is attributable to a larger contribution from diesel burning (diesel-powered vehicles and marine vessels) in Shanghai. Based on the measured ratios of BC/CO and annual emissions of CO, we estimate that the annual emissions of BC in Beijing and Shanghai are 9.51 Gg and 18.72 Gg, respectively. The improved emission rates of BC will help reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of the impact of megacities on regional climate.     

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.     

An empirical method for predicting exhaust emissions of regulated pollutants from future vehicle technologies

A methodology is presented for estimating emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles complying with future European Union emission standards, which introduces appropriate reductions over the emission factors of existing vehicle technologies. For three-way catalyst gasoline vehicles, future real-world emissions are assumed to decrease by the same ratio as emission standards. Additionally, distinction is made between emissions during the thermally stabilised emission control system operation and emissions during the cold-start phase, where reductions are mainly due to the decreasing light-off time of future catalyst technologies. In case of diesel vehicles, some of the emission standards, such as 1993 CO, did not represent the actual emission level of vehicles at the time. Therefore, reductions brought over the 1993 emission factor are based both on relevant emission standards reductions and on technological considerations. In a second step, the derived emission factors are corrected to account for vehicle age and fuel quality effects. Vehicle age is introduced in the calculation via emission degradation functions of the total vehicle-accumulated mileage. The impact of improved fuels on the emissions of existing and future vehicle technologies is also modelled by applying correction factors depending on fuel specifications. A number of examples are given by applying the methodology on forecast activity data for different European countries to illustrate the expected effects of future vehicle technologies and fuels.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO₂ emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO₂ emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m^?2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m^?2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2–14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3–4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO₂ on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO₂ effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO_x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO_x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a ‘hydrogen economy’ develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO₂ impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.     

Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate

We have compiled the evolution of the radiative forcing for several mechanisms based on our radiative transfer models using a variety of information sources to establish time histories. The anthropogenic forcing mechanisms considered are well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, and tropospheric aerosols (direct and indirect effect). The natural forcing mechanisms taken into account are the radiative effects of solar irradiance variation and particles of volcanic origin. In general there has been an increase in the radiative forcing during the 20th century. The exception is a decline in the radiative forcing in the 1945–1970 period. We have found that the evolution of anthropogenic particle emissions in the same period may have been a major cause of this decline in the forcing. We have discussed uncertainties in the various forcings and their evolution. The uncertainties are large for many forcing mechanisms, especially the impact of anthropogenic aerosols. In particular the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds is difficult to quantify. Several evolutions of their effect may have been possible, strongly influencing the evolution of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing.     

The surface radiative forcing of nitric acid for northern mid-latitudes

Ground-based, high-resolution measurements of downward atmospheric thermal emission spectra are reported for a northern mid-latitude location for summer and winter conditions. These measurements clearly show the presence of the 11.3-μm thermal emission band of nitric acid situated between 850–920 cm⁻¹. By using the FASCOD3 line-by-line radiation code to simulate the background thermal emission, the measured seasonally averaged surface radiative forcing due to nitric acid is determined to be 0.055 W m⁻²±15%. The zenith column amounts of nitric acid are found to vary between 7.9×10¹⁵ and 1.1×10¹⁶ molecules cm⁻²±15%. An estimation is made of the contribution of nitric acid to the direct radiative forcing of the Earth's surface since pre-industrial times for northern mid-latitudes. This work suggests that nitric acid may play a role that is comparable to that of other greenhouse gases, such as CFC-11, in the forcing of the Earth's climate system. Under polluted conditions, nitric acid may contribute about half of the radiative forcing that is currently associated with tropospheric ozone.