Preliminary evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model for 2002 over the Southeastern United States

The Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) is one of five Regional Planning Organizations that is charged with the management of haze, visibility, and other regional air quality issues in the United States. The VISTAS Phase I work effort modeled three episodes (January 2002, July 1999, and July 2001) to identify the optimal model configuration(s) to be used for the 2002 annual modeling in Phase II. Using model configurations recommended in the Phase I analysis, 2002 annual meteorological (Mesoscale Meterological Model [MM5]), emissions (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions [SMOKE]), and air quality (Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ]) simulations were performed on a 36-km grid covering the continental United States and a 12-km grid covering the Eastern United States. Model estimates were then compared against observations. This paper presents the results of the preliminary CMAQ model performance evaluation for the initial 2002 annual base case simulation. Model performance is presented for the Eastern United States using speciated fine particle concentration and wet deposition measurements from several monitoring networks. Initial results indicate fairly good performance for sulfate with fractional bias values generally within +/-20%. Nitrate is overestimated in the winter by approximately +50% and underestimated in the summer by more than -100%. Organic carbon exhibits a large summer underestimation bias of approximately -100% with much improved performance seen in the winter with a bias near zero. Performance for elemental carbon is reasonable with fractional bias values within +/- 40%. Other fine particulate (soil) and coarse particular matter exhibit large (80-150%) overestimation in the winter but improved performance in the summer. The preliminary 2002 CMAQ runs identified several areas of enhancements to improve model performance, including revised temporal allocation factors for ammonia emissions to improve nitrate performance and addressing missing processes in the secondary organic aerosol module to improve OC performance.     

Visibility Trends in Korea during the Past Two Decades

Abstract

Temporal trends and spatial distributions of visibility measured by the human eye over 60 stations in Korea between 1980 and 2000 are analyzed and discussed. Generally, visibility is lowest on winter mornings and highest on summer afternoons throughout Korea. Visibility in Seoul is now in an increasing trend while it has decreased nationwide, especially in clean coastal areas. Spatial distribution of visibility in the 1990s was related negatively to that of relative humidity (RH). However, visibility generally decreased despite an overall decrease in RH throughout the country. Air pollutants should have played a role in this dissonant variation, particularly in relatively clean areas and on summer afternoons. It was interpreted that the visibility increase in major metropolitan areas, including the greater Seoul area, in the 1990s was caused mainly by the reduction in pollutant emissions by rigorous government policy. But the effect of the emission reduction was manifested with decreasing RH.     

Recommended metric for tracking visibility progress in the Regional Haze Rule

For many national parks and wilderness areas with special air quality protections (Class I areas) in the western United States (U.S.), wildfire smoke and dust events can have a large impact on visibility. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 1999 Regional Haze Rule used the 20% haziest days to track visibility changes over time even if they are dominated by smoke or dust. Visibility on the 20% haziest days has remained constant or degraded over the last 16 yr at some Class I areas despite widespread emission reductions from anthropogenic sources. To better track visibility changes specifically associated with anthropogenic pollution sources rather than natural sources, the EPA has revised the Regional Haze Rule to track visibility on the 20% most anthropogenically impaired (hereafter, most impaired) days rather than the haziest days. To support the implementation of this revised requirement, the EPA has proposed (but not finalized) a recommended metric for characterizing the anthropogenic and natural portions of the daily extinction budget at each site. This metric selects the 20% most impaired days based on these portions using a “delta deciview” approach to quantify the deciview scale impact of anthropogenic light extinction. Using this metric, sulfate and nitrate make up the majority of the anthropogenic extinction in 2015 on these days, with natural extinction largely made up of organic carbon mass in the eastern U.S. and a combination of organic carbon mass, dust components, and sea salt in the western U.S. For sites in the western U.S., the seasonality of days selected as the 20% most impaired is different than the seasonality of the 20% haziest days, with many more winter and spring days selected. Applying this new metric to the 2000–2015 period across sites representing Class I areas results in substantial changes in the calculated visibility trend for the northern Rockies and southwest U.S., but little change for the eastern U.S.

Implications: Changing the approach for tracking visibility in the Regional Haze Rule allows the EPA, states, and the public to track visibility on days when reductions in anthropogenic emissions have the greatest potential to improve the view. The calculations involved with the recommended metric can be incorporated into the routine IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) data processing, enabling rapid analysis of current and future visibility trends. Natural visibility conditions are important in the calculations for the recommended metric, necessitating the need for additional analysis and potential refinement of their values.     

Effects of Aerosol Species on Atmospheric Visibility in Kaohsiung City,Taiwan

Abstract

Visibility data collected from Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, for the past two decades indicated that the air pollutants have significantly degraded visibility in recent years. During our study period, the seasonal mean visibilities in spring, summer, fall, and winter were only 5.4, 9.1, 8.2, and 3.4 km, respectively. To ascertain how urban aerosols influence the visibility, we conducted concurrent visibility monitoring and aerosol sampling in 1999 to identify the principal causes of visibility impairments in the region. In this study, ambient aerosols were sampled and analyzed for 11 constituents, including water-soluble ions and carbon materials, to investigate the chemical composition of Kaohsiung aerosols. Stepwise regression method was used to correlate the impact of aerosol species on visibility impairments. Both seasonal and diurnal variation patterns were found from the monitoring of visibility. Our results showed that light scattering was attributed primarily to aerosols with sizes that range from 0.26 to 0.90 μm, corresponding with the wavelength region of visible light, which accounted for ～72% of the light scattering coefficient. Sulfate was a dominant component that affected both the light scattering coefficient and the visibility in the region. On average, (NH₄)₂SO₄, NH₄NO₃, total carbon, and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)-remainder contributed 53%, 17%, 16%, and 14% to total light scattering, respectively. An empirical regression model of visibility based on sulfate, elemental carbon, and humidity was developed, and the comparison indicated that visibility in an urban area could be properly simulated by the equation derived herein.     

Light Scattering Characteristics of Aerosols at Ambient and as a Function of Relative Humidity: Part II—A Comparison of Measured Scattering and Aerosol Concentrations Using Statistical Models

ABSTRACT

The eastern United States national parks experience some of the worst visibility conditions in the nation. To study these conditions, the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) was undertaken to characterize the size-dependent composition, thermodynamic properties, and optical characteristics of the ambient atmospheric particles. It is a cooperative three-year study that is sponsored by the National Park Service and the Electric Power Research Institute and its member utilities. The field portion of the study was carried out from July 15 to August 25, 1995.

The study design, instrumental configuration, and estimation of aerosol types from particle measurements is presented in a companion paper. In the companion paper, we compare measurements of scattering at ambient conditions and as functions of relative humidity to theoretical predictions of scattering. In this paper, we make similar comparisons, but using statistical techniques. Statistically derived specific scattering associated with sulfates suggest that a reasonable estimate of sulfate scattering can be arrived at by assuming nominal dry specific scattering and treating the aerosols as an external mixture with ammoniation of sulfate accounted for and by the use of Tang's growth curves to predict water absorption. However, the regressions suggest that the sulfate scattering may be underestimated by about 10%. Regression coefficients on organics, to within the statistical uncertainty of the model, suggest that a reasonable estimate of organic scattering is about 4.0 m²/g.

A new analysis technique is presented, which does not rely on comparing measured to model estimates of scattering to evoke an understanding of ambient aerosol growth properties, but rather relies on measurements of scattering as a function of relative humidity to develop actual estimates of f(RH) curves. The estimates of the study average f(RH) curve for sulfates compares favorably with the theoretical f(RH) curve for ammonium bisulfate, which is in turn consistent with the study average sulfate am-moniation corresponding to a molar ratio of NH₄/SO₄ of approximately one. The f(RH) curve for organics is not significantly different from one, suggesting that organics are weakly to nonhygroscopic.     

Estimates of Particle Hygroscopicity during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study

ABSTRACT

Aerosol water content was determined from relative humidity controlled optical particle counter (ASASP-X) size distribution measurements made during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park during summer 1995. Since the scattering response function of the ASASP-X is sensitive to particle refractive index, a technique for calibrating the ASASP-X for any real refractive index was developed. A new iterative process was employed to calculate water mass concentration and wet refractive index as functions of relative humidity. Experimental water mass concentrations were compared to theoretically predicted values assuming only ammonium sulfate compounds were hygroscopic. These comparisons agreed within experimental uncertainty. Estimates of particle hygroscopicity using a rural aerosol model of refractive index as a function of relative humidity demonstrated no significant differences from those made with daily varying refractive index estimates. Although aerosol size parameters were affected by the assumed chemical composition, forming ratios of these parameters nearly canceled these effects.     

A Critical Assessment of Atmospheric Visibility and Aerosol Measurements in the Eastern United States

As part of a study examining the technical basis for a secondary national ambient air quality standard for fine particulate matter to protect visibility, we reviewed available data on atmospheric aerosol and visibility in the eastern U.S. This paper presents the results of that visibility and aerosol characterization.

Analysis of airport visibility data indicates that the annual median visual ranges in the East are in the 16-25 km range. In the absence of a "reference method," limited measurements of visibility using various types of instruments provide data generally in agreement with the airport visibility estimates when a contrast threshold of 0.05 is assumed in calculating visual range from the instrumental measurements.

Both long- and short-term aerosol measurements have yielded consistent results; however, because of the differences in instrumentation and laboratory analytical techniques among various studies, data often are not directly comparable. The measured annual average fine particulate matter mass concentration is about 18 μg/m³ in the rural East; during summer it increases to about 23 μg/m³. If all the sulfur in the fine mass is assumed to exist as ammonium sulfate, it would constitute 46 percent of the annual mean and about 60 percent of the summer mean fine mass concentrations. Carbon and volatiles, including water, are believed to constitute significant fractions of the fine mass; however, there are little data quantifying their contributions to fine mass and visibility impairment. Additional long-term measurements of visibility and fine aerosol and its various components are necessary to completely characterize visibility and aerosol in the East.     

Effect of PM2.5 chemical constituents on atmospheric visibility impairment

PM_2.5 sampling was conducted at a curbside location in Delhi city for summer and winter seasons, to evaluate the effect of PM_2.5 and its chemical components on the visibility impairment. The PM_2.5 concentrations were observed to be higher than the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), indicating poor air quality. The chemical constituents of PM_2.5 (the water-soluble ionic species SO₄^2-, NO₃^?, Cl^?, and NH₄⁺, and carbonaceous species: organic carbon, elemental carbon) were analyzed to study their impact on visibility impairment by reconstructing the light extinction coefficient, b_ext. The visibility was found to be negatively correlated with PM_2.5 and its components. The reconstructed b_ext showed that organic matter was the largest contributor to b_ext in both the seasons which may be attributed to combustion sources. In summer season, it was followed by elemental carbon and ammonium sulfate; however, in winter, major contributions were from ammonium nitrate and elemental carbon. Higher elemental carbon in both seasons may be attributed to traffic sources, while lower concentrations of nitrate during summer, may be attributed to volatility because of higher atmospheric temperatures.

Implications: The chemical constituents of PM_2.5 that majorly effect the visibility impairment are organic matter and elemental carbon, both of which are products of combustion processes. Secondary formations that lead to ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate production also impair the visibility.     

Air pollutant source characterization using the revised regional haze tracking metric and a photochemical grid model and implications for regional haze planning

The 2017 revisions to the Regional Haze Rule clarify that visibility progress at Class I national parks and wilderness areas should be tracked on days with the highest anthropogenic contributions to haze (impairment). We compare the natural and anthropogenic contributions to haze in the western United States in 2011 estimated using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended method and using model projections from the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) and the Particulate Source Apportionment Tool (PSAT). We do so because these two methods will be used by states to demonstrate visibility progress by 2028. If the two methods assume different natural and anthropogenic contributions, the projected benefits of reducing U.S. anthropogenic emissions will differ. The EPA method assumes that episodic elevated carbonaceous aerosols greater than an annual 95th percentile threshold are natural events. For western U.S. IMPROVE monitoring sites reviewed in this paper, CAMx-PSAT confirms these episodes are impacted by carbon from wildfire or prescribed fire events. The EPA method assumes that most of the ammonium sulfate is anthropogenic in origin. At most western sites CAMx-PSAT apportions more of the ammonium sulfate on the most impaired days to global boundary conditions and anthropogenic Canadian, Mexican, and offshore shipping emissions than to U.S. anthropogenic sources. For ammonium nitrate and coarse mass, CAMx-PSAT apportions greater contributions to U.S. anthropogenic sources than the EPA method assigns to total anthropogenic contributions. We conclude that for western IMPROVE sites, the EPA method is effective in selecting days that are likely to be impacted by anthropogenic emissions and that CAMx-PSAT is an effective approach to estimate U.S. source contributions. Improved inventories, particularly international and natural emissions, and further evaluation of global and regional model performance and PSAT attribution methods are recommended to increase confidence in modeled source characterization.

Implications: The western states intend to use the CAMx model to project visibility progress by 2028. Modeled visibility response to changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions may be less than estimated using the EPA assumptions based on total U.S. and international anthropogenic contributions to visibility impairment. Additional model improvements are needed to better account for contributions to haze from natural and international emissions in current and future modeling years. These improvements will allow more direct comparison of model and EPA estimates of natural and anthropogenic contributions to haze and future visibility progress.     

Receptor Modeling Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS)Part III–Apportionment of Airborne Particulate Sulfur in Western Washington State

Abstract

Data obtained from 24 of the 31 sites of the Pacific Northwest Regional Visibility Experiment Using Natural Tracers (PREVENT) study were analyzed by the Receptor Model Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS) multivariate receptor model. Four spatial patterns were found and interpreted as showing the effect of the coal-fired power plant in Centralia, WA; transport from the northwest; the Se-attle-Tacoma urban area; and transport from the southeast. In Mt. Rainier National Park, up to one-third of the sulfate can be attributed to the Centralia power plant. In the North Cascades National Park, 65-82% of the sulfur is accounted for by transport from Canada. The model was applied separately to sites in the northern and southern sections of the study area. The southern sites were affected only by the Centralia, urban, and southeast transport sources; the northern sites were affected only by the northwest transport, urban, and southeast transport sources. This gave two independent estimates of the normalized source contributions of the urban and southeast transport factors, which had a correlation coefficient of more than 0.90.     

Effects of aerosol species on atmospheric visibility in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

Visibility data collected from Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, for the past two decades indicated that the air pollutants have significantly degraded visibility in recent years. During our study period, the seasonal mean visibilities in spring, summer, fall, and winter were only 5.4, 9.1, 8.2, and 3.4 km, respectively. To ascertain how urban aerosols influence the visibility, we conducted concurrent visibility monitoring and aerosol sampling in 1999 to identify the principal causes of visibility impairments in the region. In this study, ambient aerosols were sampled and analyzed for 11 constituents, including water-soluble ions and carbon materials, to investigate the chemical composition of Kaohsiung aerosols. Stepwise regression method was used to correlate the impact of aerosol species on visibility impairments. Both seasonal and diurnal variation patterns were found from the monitoring of visibility. Our results showed that light scattering was attributed primarily to aerosols with sizes that range from 0.26 to 0.90 pm, corresponding with the wavelength region of visible light, which accounted for approximately 72% of the light scattering coefficient. Sulfate was a dominant component that affected both the light scattering coefficient and the visibility in the region. On average, (NH4)2SO4, NH4NO3, total carbon, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-remainder contributed 53%, 17%, 16%, and 14% to total light scattering, respectively. An empirical regression model of visibility based on sulfate, elemental carbon, and humidity was developed, and the comparison indicated that visibility in an urban area could be properly simulated by the equation derived herein.     

Long-term trends and characteristics of visibility in two megacities in southwest China: Chengdu and Chongqing

Visibility is a good indicator of air quality because it reflects the combined influences of atmospheric pollutants and synoptic processes. Trends in visibility and relationships with various factors in Chengdu and Chongqing, two megacities in southwest China, were analyzed using daily data from National Climatic Data Center and the Air Pollution Index (API) of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China. Average annual visibility during the period of 1973–2010 was 8.1 ± 3.9 in Chengdu and 6.2 ± 4.3 km in Chongqing. PM₁₀ dominates the reported primary pollutants in both cities, although concentrations have decreased from a high of 127.9 and 150 µg m³ before 2005 to 100.4 and 93.5 µg m^?3 in Chengdu and Chongqing, respectively. Low average visibility and extremely high levels of PM10 were observed in winter, whereas relative humidity had irregular and weak seasonal variations. Visibility in both cities has deteriorated in comparison to the 1960s and 1970s, mostly due to the elevation of optical depth caused by anthropogenic pollution.

Correlations and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to determine the key factors affecting visibility. Visibility was only moderately correlated with PM₁₀. In Chengdu, visibility displayed weak correlations with various factors, whereas visibility in Chongqing was most strongly related to relative humidity due to the atmospheric particulates in the region containing more hygroscopic components. PCA results further confirmed that high relative humidity and low wind speed increased the occurrence of low visibility events under high PM₁₀ concentrations. Temperature and pressure, as indicators of weather systems, also played important roles in affecting visibility. Mathematical models of visibility prediction indicated that wind speed had the largest coefficients among all meteorological factors, and reductions in PM₁₀ concentration only led to minor improvements in visibility.

Implications: Long-term data indicates that visibility in Chengdu and Chongqing has been lower than 10 km since the 1970s, and the poor visibility primarily results from anthropogenic pollution. Although PM₁₀ concentrations have decreased consistently to around 100 μg m^?3, trends of visibility have shown no improvement but much fluctuation. Correlation and principal component analysis demonstrate that low visibility in Chengdu is influenced by high relative humidity, while in Chongqing the degrading visibility is related with high relative humidity and pressure and low wind speed under a stable weather system. The results are important to understand the widespread haze event in the two megacities of southwest China.     

Visibility trends in Korea during the past two decades

Temporal trends and spatial distributions of visibility measured by the human eye over 60 stations in Korea between 1980 and 2000 are analyzed and discussed. Generally, visibility is lowest on winter mornings and highest on summer afternoons throughout Korea. Visibility in Seoul is now in an increasing trend while it has decreased nationwide, especially in clean coastal areas. Spatial distribution of visibility in the 1990s was related negatively to that of relative humidity (RH). However, visibility generally decreased despite an overall decrease in RH throughout the country. Air pollutants should have played a role in this dissonant variation, particularly in relatively clean areas and on summer afternoons. It was interpreted that the visibility increase in major metropolitan areas, including the greater Seoul area, in the 1990s was caused mainly by the reduction in pollutant emissions by rigorous government policy. But the effect of the emission reduction was manifested with decreasing RH.     

Variation of Mass Scattering Efficiencies in IMPROVE

Abstract

The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) equation used to assess compliance under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Haze Rule assumes that dry mass scattering efficiencies for aerosol chemical components are constant. However, examination of aerosol size distributions and chemical composition during the Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study and the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study suggests that volume and mass scattering efficiencies vary directly with increasing particle light scattering and aerosol mass concentration. This is consistent with the observation that particle distributions were shifted to larger sizes under more polluted conditions and appears to be related to aging of the aerosol during transport to remote locations.     

On a Strategy for Reducing Short-range Daytime Ground Level Concentrations Due to Emissions from Very Tall Stacks

Abstract

Airborne fine particle sulfur data from the summer intensive of Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) was analyzed by the Receptor Model Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS) model, a novel multivariate receptor-oriented model that applies to secondary and primary species. The sulfur data from 17 sites were found to be well predicted by three spatial patterns interpreted as sources along the valley of the Colorado River; transport from sources located to the southwest; and transport from sources located to the southeast. The model was tested by using parameters derived from the 17-site data set to apportion sulfur for six sites that were not part of the original data set. The sulfur apportionment for these six sites was in agreement with the original apportionment and the physical interpretation of the spatial patterns given above. The effects of systematic and random error on the sulfur apportionment were estimated. The amount of sulfur associated with the Colorado River valley sources was rather insensitive to both types of error. For the two sites in the Grand Canyon National Park, the fraction of total particulate sulfur from the Colorado River valley source is estimated to be in the range of 27-65% at Meadview and 11-28% at Hopi Point.     

Comparison of Selenium and Sulfur at Remote Sites

Abstract

The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) particulate monitoring network has been collecting aerosols for visibility apportionment at remote sites in the United States since 1988. The measurements include the major PM_2.5 components, such as sulfur, carbon, and nitrate, and trace elements, such as selenium. This paper will examine the relationship between the sulfurs and selenium concentrations at 61 sites for samples collected in the seasonal year 1993. Maps of mean sulfur and selenium measurements in summer 1993 and winter 1993-1994 indicate that there are well-defined regional patterns for both elements, with concentrations in the Appalachian region that are ten times those in areas of the Pacific Northwest. The S/Se ratios of means are relatively uniform across the United States, at around 2000 in summer and 1000 in winter, indicating a strong sulfur-selenium relationship. The role of conversion of S0₂ to sulfate can also be deduced from the means. For individual samples taken during summer 1993, there is a high correlation between the two variables in the East, especially at sites in the Northeast, where the correlation coefficients (r²) are around 0.9. In the West, the correlation is much lower. This is attributed to fewer sources and differing emission factors.     

Use of Project MOHAVE Perfluorocarbon Tracer Data to Evaluate Source and Receptor Models

ABSTRACT

Project MOHAVE was a major monitoring, modeling, and data analysis study whose objectives included the estimation of the contributions of the Mohave Power Project (MPP) and other sources to visibility impairment in the southwestern United States, in particular at Grand Canyon National Park. A major element of Project MOHAVE was the release of perfluorocarbon tracers at MPP and other locations during 50-day summer and 30-day winter intensive study periods. Tracer data (from about 30 locations) were sequestered until several source and receptor models were used to predict tracer concentrations. None of the models was successful in predicting the tracer concentrations; squared correlation coefficients between predicted and measured tracer were all less than 0.2, and most were less than 0.1.     

Evaluation of Wind Fields Used in Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Analyses

ABSTRACT

The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) was established by the U.S. Congress to assess the potential impacts of projected growth on atmospheric visibility at Grand Canyon National Park and to make recommendations to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on what measures could be taken to avoid such adverse impacts. A critical input to the assessment tool used by the commission was three-dimensional model-derived wind fields used to transport the emissions. This paper describes the evaluation of the wind fields used at various stages in the assessment. Wind fields evaluated included those obtained from the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (ATAD) trajectory model. The model-derived wind fields were evaluated at multiple vertical levels at several locations in the southwestern United States by determining differences between model predicted winds and winds that were measured using radiosonde and radar wind profiler data. Model-derived winds were also evaluated by determining the percent of time that they were within acceptable differences from measured winds.

All models had difficulties, generally meeting the acceptable criteria for less than 50% of the predictions. The RAMS model had a persistent bias toward southwesterly winds at the expense of other directions, especially failing to represent channeling by north-south mountain ranges in the lower levels. The NGM model exhibited a substantial bias in the summer months by extending northwesterly winds in the eastern Pacific Ocean well inland, in contrast to the observed southwesterlies at inland locations. The simpler ATAD trajectory model performed somewhat better than the other models, probably because of its use of more upper air sites. The results of the evaluation indicated that these wind fields could not be used to reliably predict source-receptor impacts on a particular day; thus, seasonally averaged impacts were used in the GCVTC assessment.     

A statistical analysis of visibility-impairing particles in federal Class I areas

It is widely agreed that visibility conditions in many Class I areas are impaired to some extent. This paper provides an estimate of the degree of impairment in many of the Class I areas with respect to each of the six haze-forming aerosol classes as described in the supporting documents to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regional Haze Rule. Analyses are performed comparing data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network to a modified version of the default natural conditions estimates from the Regional Haze Rule. Uncertainties in the measured annual mean concentrations and biases in the default natural condition estimates because of the effects of geography and meteorology are discussed. It is determined that all of the Class I areas in the contiguous 48 United States are significantly impaired with respect to sulfate aerosols, most of the Class I areas are significantly impaired with respect to nitrate and elemental carbon aerosols, and impairment with respect to organic mass, soil mass, and coarse mass is generally less discernable. No attempt is made to determine adverse impacts with respect to any specific source or group of sources.     

Visibility: science and regulation

The 1999 Regional Haze Rule provides a context for this review of visibility, the science that describes it, and the use of that science in regulatory guidance. The scientific basis for the 1999 regulation is adequate. The deciview metric that tracks progress is an imperfect but objective measure of what people see near the prevailing visual range. The definition of natural visibility conditions is adequate for current planning, but it will need to be refined as visibility improves. Emissions from other countries will set achievable levels above those produced by natural sources. Some natural events, notably dust storms and wildfires, are episodic and cannot be represented by annual average background values or emission estimates. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission reductions correspond with lower sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations and visibility improvements in the regions where these have occurred. Non-road emissions have been growing more rapidly than emissions from other sources, which have remained stable or decreased since 1970. Simpler models representing transport, limiting precursor pollutants, and gas-to-particle equilibrium should be used to understand where and when emission reductions will be effective, rather than large complex models that have insufficient input and validation measurements. Examples of model-based source attribution show large differences among estimates from various modeling systems and with ambient measurements.