A framework for risk characterization of environmental pollutants.

Risk characterization is defined by both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. EPA as the estimation of human health risk due to harmful (i.e., toxic or carcinogenic) substances or organisms. Risk characterization studies are accomplished by integrating quantitative exposure estimates and dose-response relationships with the qualitative results of hazard identification. A Risk Characterization Framework has been developed to encourage a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk estimates. This methodology subdivides the four common components of the risk assessment process into ten elements. Each of these elements is based on a term in a predictive risk equation. The equation allows independent computations of exposure, dose, lifetime individual risk, and risk to affected populations. All key assumptions in the predictive risk equation can be explicitly shown. This is important to understand the basis and inherent uncertainties of the risk estimation process. The systematic treatment of each of the ten elements in this framework aids in the difficult job of comparing risk estimates by different researchers using different methodologies. The Risk Characterization Framework has been applied to various indoor and outdoor air pollutants of a carcinogenic nature. With further development, it also promises to be applicable to noncarcinogenic effects.     

Risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure from ingested food: the Azerbaijan case study

Risks due to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure from food consumption for the population of Azerbaijan were determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. The guidelines and methods described and presented in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Part A was used in performing the risk assessments. The current study utilized concentration data from different sources representing international studies performed over the past decade to determine those food products that contribute the most exposure to PAHs through ingestion for the Azeri population. Due to lack of concentration data from middle-Eastern countries, only European countries were considered and used for this analysis. Using the benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) toxicity equivalency factors (TEFs) to adjust the concentrations of the individual PAH compounds to BaP equivalent concentrations, risk analyses were performed. Deterministic risk estimates fell within probabilistic risk estimates. Child risks were consistently four to seven times higher in magnitude than adult risks. Risk potentials determined for the food exposure pathway were also determined to be up to ten times higher in magnitude than risks determined from exposures due to other pathways such as soil contamination. It was observed that three major factors contributed to the variability in the assessment results, which were child and adult body weights, consumption rates of the different food groups, and the variances of the input data. The most prevalent pathways of PAH exposure from the dietary patterns of the Azerbaijani population were determined to be from bread and bakery products, milk and dairy products, and egg products.     

Rationale for assessment of risk from exposure to 2,3,7,8-TCDD

The human health risk assessment is supported by methodology for utilizing toxic effects in animals consisting of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic responses as a result of chronic, subchronic and acute exposures. One of the initial steps in a risk assessment activity involves the estimation of exposure levels. These estimates are typically based on either direct environmental measurements or predictions obtained from fate and transport models. The decision to develop assessment of risk from chronic exposure based on a nonthreshold model is made if a chemical demonstrates carcinogenic activity in animal bioassays and/or in human epidemiological studies. In the absence of any positive human epidemiologic data, it is assumed that a substance which induces a statistically significant carcinogenic response in animals has the probability to cause cancer in humans. The carcinogenic potential of 2,3,7,8-TCDD has been established based on chronic exposure in rodents. In addition, 2,3,7,8-TCDD has also been shown to be a liver cancer promoter in rodents. In the risk assessment on dioxins based on chronic exposure in experimental animals, 2,3,7,8-TCDD is regarded as a carcinogenic substance. Carcinogenic data from animal bioassays are utilized for the assessment of risk for the purpose of estimating the likelihood of 2,3,7,8-TCDD being carcinogenic for humans and to determine the magnitude of the potential impact on public health.     

Using stochastic risk assessment in setting information priorities for managing dioxin impact from a municipal waste incinerator

The objectives of this study were to assess site-specific carcinogenic risk of incinerator-emitted dioxins in a manner reflecting pollutant transfer across multimedia and multi-pathways. The study used site-specific environmental and exposure information and combined the Monte Carlo method with multimedia modeling to produce probability distributions of risk estimates. The risk estimates were further categorized by contaminated environmental media and exposure pathways that are experienced by human receptors in order to pinpoint significant sources of risk. Rank correlation coefficients were also calculated along with the Monte Carlo sampling to identify key factors that influenced estimation of risk. The results showed that ingestion accounted for more than 90% of the total risk and that risk control on ingestion of eggs, aboveground vegetables, and poultry should receive priority. It was also found that variation of parameters with variability accounted for around 35% of the total risk variance, while uncertainty contributed to the remaining 65%. Intake rates of aboveground vegetables, eggs, and poultry were the key parameters with the largest contribution to variance. In addition, sufficient sampling and analysis of dioxin contents in eggs, aboveground vegetables, poultry, soil, and fruit should be performed to improve risk estimation because the variation in concentrations in these media accounted for the largest overall risk variance. Finally, focus should be placed on reduction of uncertainty associated with the risk estimation through ingestion of aboveground vegetables, eggs, poultry, fruit, and soil because the risk estimates associated with these exposure pathways had the largest variance.     

Radon versus other lung cancer risk factors: How accurate are the attribution estimates?

This notebook paper provides a brief overview of attribution estimates for some key lung cancer risk factors, focusing on indoor radon gas exposure in the U.S., UK, and Canada. Tobacco smoking represents the primary cause of lung cancer worldwide. Radon is regarded as the second leading lung cancer risk factor in the U.S. and Canada. It can be observed, however, that the reported estimates appear not to add up to the maximum cumulative attribution of 100%.

Implications: Limitations and uncertainties associated with published epidemiological studies and the observed lack of consistency in lung cancer attribution estimates for radon and other non-smoking lung cancer risk factors should be taken into consideration by policy makers in setting population health protection priorities.     

危险废物事故排放的河流水环境健康风险评价

分析了基于水体中污染物迁移转化方程的水质预测模型,并借鉴美国环保局推荐使用的健康风险评价模型,建立了一种危险废物事故排放时水环境对人体健康风险的评价方法。以电镀污泥为例验证了该方法的有效性。结果显示:该方法需要参数少且计算简单;电镀污泥中目标污染物(Cr、Cu、Ni、Zn)所引起的河流水环境非致癌风险(1.67)超过了美国标准中的可接受风险水平1.00,不可接受;致癌风险(0.88E-11)则小于美国标准中的可接受风险水平1.00E-06,风险不明显。     

Empirical Evaluation of Ambient Ozone Interpolation Procedures to Support Exposure Models

ABSTRACT

An intercomparison study has been performed with six empirical ozone interpolation procedures to predict hourly concentrations in ambient air between monitoring stations. The objective of the study is to use monitoring network data to empirically identify an improved procedure to estimate ozone concentrations at subject exposure points. Four of the procedures in the study are currently used in human exposure models (nearest monitors daily mean and maximum, regression estimate used in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) pNEM, and inverse distance weighting), and two are being evaluated for this purpose (kriging in space and kriging in space and time). The study focused on spatial estimation during June 1-June 5, 1996, with relatively high observed ozone levels over Houston, Texas. The study evaluated these procedures at three types of locations with monitors of varying proximity. Results from the empirical evaluation indicate that kriging in space and time provides excellent estimates of ozone concentrations within a monitoring network, while the more often used techniques failed to capture observed pollutant concentrations. Improved estimation of pollutant concentrations within the region, and thus at subject locations, should result in improved exposure modeling.     

Computer estimation of the Atmospheric gas-phase reaction rate of organic compounds with hydroxyl radicals and ozone

The Atmospheric Oxidation Program (AOP) is a computer program that estimates the rate constant for the atmospheric, gas-phase reaction between photochemically produced hydroxyl radicals (OH) and organic chemicals. It also estimates the rate constant for the gas-phase reaction between ozone and olefinic/acetylenic compounds. AOP, which uses estimation methods developed by Atkinson and co-workers, estimates more accurate rate constants than the PCFAP (Fate of Atmospheric Pollutants) program that was part of the U.S. EPA's Graphical Exposure Modeling System (GEMS). Due to its superior predictive ability, the EPA is currently using AOP to evaluate the atmospheric fate of compounds defined under Sections 4, 5 and 6 of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).     

Mutagenicity evaluation of chemical pesticides

Abstract

Over the last few decades, the use of chemical pesticides has increased dramatically in the U.S. This relatively sudden increase greatly concerns the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), since it has the responsibility for ensuring the safety of all pesticides used in the U.S. In response to this concern, EPA has established a review program, the Rebuttable Presumption Against Registration (RPAR), for periodically reassessing the mutagenic and carcinogenic potential of pesticide compounds.

This paper presents a review and evaluation of the data reported in the literature on six chemical pesticides suspect for mutagenic potential. The pesticide chemicals discussed are maleic hydrazide; rotenone; monuron; diallate; triallate, and benomyl.     

The carcinogenic risk of some organic vapors indoors: A theoretical survey

This exploratory report examines the risk of selected organic air pollutants measured in homes in the United States and the Netherlands. After several theoretical assumptions, estimates are made for the carcinogenic potency of each chemical; combined with the exposure measurements these give estimates of cancer risk. These estimates are compared with risks of these same pollutants outdoors and in drinking water and also with other well known indoor air pollutants: cigarette smoke, radon gas and formaldehyde. These comparisons indicate priorities for action. Some suggestions are made for future studies.     

Evaluation of Risks from Urban Air Pollutants in the Southeast Chicago Area

Region V of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted a comprehensive study of cancer risks from urban exposure to air pollutants in the Southeast Chicago area. This study estimated emissions of a list of 30 air carcinogens from a broad range of nontraditional, as well as traditional, source types. Using dispersion modeling and applying the appropriate unit risk factors and population data, this study estimated the risks at each receptor location and the total number of cancer cases attributable to air pollution in the area.

This analysis estimated that current concentrations would cause 77 cases of cancer over the next 70 years, an average risk of 2.0 × 10^?4. Contributions from different source types and different pollutants were estimated. The total contribution from nontraditional source types was less than 0.3 percent. Although these estimates are highly uncertain, the study does suggest the nature and general magnitude of cancer risks from air pollution in the urban area studied.     

Policy uses of particulate exposure estimates

This paper reviews the uses of particulate exposure estimates for science and policy. We propose a set of normative factors to guide the selection and application of various approaches for exposure assessment. For exposure estimates intended for use in support of the development or air pollution regulations or selection of control strategies, the proposed criteria include--compatibility with policy scope and scale, cost-effectiveness, characterization of uncertainty, political and institutional feasibility, and sensitivity to framing. For exposure assessment in support of epidemiological research, key criteria are-compatability with the specific hypothesis being tested, and compatibility with the temporal and spatial scale of analysis. The various major approaches for estimation of exposure--direct and indirect measurement, empirical and physical modeling--are catalogued and compared with these proposed criteria.     

Ecological risk assessment for aquatic species exposed to contaminants in Keelung River, Taiwan

An ecological risk assessment was conducted for Keelung River in northern Taiwan. The objective of this study was to assess the risk to fish, aquatic insects, and benthic macroinvertebrates associated with chemical-of-potential-concern (COPC) in the river and to rank ecological risk for these chemicals. The protection of at least 95% of the species 90% of the time from acute and chronic COPC exposures was the defined assessment endpoint. Nine inorganic and organic contaminants were selected to evaluate the impact to aquatic community in the Keelung River. The quotient method served as screen level estimation of risk. The Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment model was used to analyze exposure and ecological effects and to estimate community level risk. The logarithmic regression model between probability and lethal concentration was established. The combined risks of multiple chemicals were evaluated under assumption of additive risk. The results indicated that zinc and copper pose higher risk among metals. Ammonia, copper, and zinc posed virtually all of the risk, while organic COPCs posed a negligible risk. Potential ecological risk from ammonia exposure was greatest. The probability of more than 5% of the species being affected by acute or chronic toxicity of COPCs is about 100%. In average (50% of the time), 99% of the species would be affected by acute toxicity of COPCs, and about all the species would be affected by chronic toxicity of COPCs. Uncertainties in this assessment were associated with variability in ecosystem stressors, exposure data, ecological effect data, and risk characterization.     

An Assessment of Residues from Duct Injection Demonstration Sites

The duct injection retrofit process for flue gas cleanup of sulfur dioxide emissions has been demonstrated at several sites in the United States through a series of U.S. Department of Energy research projects. As a subcontractor on one of the projects, the University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center performed a comprehensive characterization of four residues from three demonstration sites. The characterization task objective was to facilitate understanding of materials handling and to identify potential disposal and utilization options for these high-volume coal utilization solid residues. Characterization included evaluation of the physical and engineering properties, chemical composition, mineralogy, and leaching potential. Chemical characterization results provided interesting and valuable information from the standpoint of the bulk chemistry and phase assemblages, as well as potential environmental issues associated with the use or disposal of these materials. Results of the chemical and mineralogical characterizations indicate that duct injection residues will be suitable for specific utilization applications and that disposal of these residues should be similar to many conventional coal combustion residues. Significant mineralogical phase changes were noted in long-term leaching experiments.     

Use of Probabilistic Methods to Understand the Conservatism in California’s Approach to Assessing Health Risks Posed by Air Contaminants

Many state and federal agencies have prepared risk assessment guidelines, which describe methods for quantifying health risks associated with exposure to vapors and particulates emitted from point and area sources (e.g., California Air Pollution Control Officers Association [CAPCOA] under the Air Toxics “Hot Spots” Act [Assembly Bill 2588] and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] under the Clean Air Act). In general, these guidelines recommend or require the use of upper bound “point” estimates for numerous exposure parameters. This methodology yields a single risk estimate, which is intended not to underestimate the true risk and may significantly overstate it. This paper describes a risk assessment of a facility’s airborne emissions using a probabilistic approach, which presents a range and distribution of risk estimates rather than a single point estimate. The health risks to residents living near a food processing facility, as estimated using techniques recommended by California AB2588, are compared to the results of a probabilistic analysis. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were identified as the emitted chemicals of concern. The point estimate method recommended by CAPCOA resulted in estimates that were greater than the 99.99th percentile risk predicted by the probabilistic analysis. As shown in other assessments of persistent airborne chemicals, secondary or indirect exposure pathways (i.e., ingestion of beef, ingestion of cow’s milk, and ingestion of mother’s milk) rather than inhalation, were the greatest contributors to risk. In this analysis, the probability distributions for the cancer potency factor and ingestion of cow’s milk had the largest impact on the results of the 33 exposure factors considered.     

Spray irrigation of landfill leachate: estimating potential exposures to workers and bystanders using a modified air box model and generalised source term

Generalised source term data from UK leachates and a probabilistic exposure model (BPRISC(4)) were used to evaluate key routes of exposure from chemicals of concern during the spraying irrigation of landfill leachate. Risk estimates secured using a modified air box model are reported for a hypothetical worker exposed to selected chemicals within a generalised conceptual exposure model of spray irrigation. Consistent with pesticide spray exposure studies, the key risk driver is dermal exposure to the more toxic components of leachate. Changes in spray droplet diameter (0.02-0.2 cm) and in spray flow rate (50-1000 l/min) have little influence on dermal exposure, although the lesser routes of aerosol ingestion and inhalation are markedly affected. The risk estimates modelled using this conservative worst case exposure scenario are not of sufficient magnitude to warrant major concerns about chemical risks to workers or bystanders from this practice in the general sense. However, the modelling made use of generic concentration data for only a limited number of potential landfill leachate contaminants, such that individual practices may require assessment on the basis of their own merits.     

Health risk assessment of an abandoned herbicide factory site for transportation use in Dalian,China

An abandoned herbicide factory site was used as an example of how planning should be considered for development of the site for transportation use in Dalian, China. Exposure pathways and parameters for three types of transportation use (land for a traffic hub, land for an urban road, and land for a subway) were developed. Twenty-five sampling sites were selected and 38 soil samples were collected in March 2015. Hexachlorobenzene and benzo(a)pyrene which were extracted by Soxhlet extraction and detected by gas chromatography mass spectrometry were the most significant pollutants detected. The maximum concentration of the two pollutants in the surface layer (0–0.5 m) were 0.57 and 3.10 mg/kg, and in the bottom layer (1.0 m) were 2.57 and 3.72 mg/kg, respectively. In this study, risk assessment results based on the established exposure scenario and parameters showed that there was a significant difference in traffic hub land use under specific exposure pathway and common insensitive land use exposure pathways (direct ingestion of soil, dermal contact with soil, and inhalation of soil-derived dust). Commonly considered hexachlorobenzene and benzo(a)pyrene carcinogenic risk values exceeded the maximum acceptable level (10⁻⁶) and were found to be 23.9-fold and 189-fold higher than the carcinogenic risk values, respectively. Parameter sensitivity analysis data showed that for transportation use, the two parameters “EFOa” and “OSIRa” were the most significant factors associated with variation of the carcinogenic risk value. For traffic hub land use, urban road land use, and subway land use, the main exposure pathways were through “inhalation of soil vapors outdoors (from surface soil),” “direct ingestion of soil,” and “inhalation of soil vapors indoors (from bottom soil),” which contributed 84.75, 73.00, and 100.00% to the total risk value, respectively.

     

Assessing the inhalation cancer risk of particulate matter bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for the elderly in a retirement community of a mega city in North China

Assessment of the health risks resulting from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is limited by the lack of environmental exposure data among different subpopulations. To assess the exposure cancer risk of particulate carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution for the elderly, this study conducted a personal exposure measurement campaign for particulate PAHs in a community of Tianjin, a city in northern China. Personal exposure samples were collected from the elderly in non-heating (August–September, 2009) and heating periods (November–December, 2009), and 12 PAHs individuals were analyzed for risk estimation. Questionnaire and time-activity log were also recorded for each person. The probabilistic risk assessment model was integrated with Toxic Equivalent Factors (TEFs). Considering that the estimation of the applied dose for a given air pollutant is dependent on the inhalation rate, the inhalation rate from both EPA exposure factor book was applied to calculate the carcinogenic risk in this study. Monte Carlo simulation was used as a probabilistic risk assessment model, and risk simulation results indicated that the inhalation-ILCR values for both male and female subjects followed a lognormal distribution with a mean of 4.81?×?10^?6 and 4.57?×?10^?6, respectively. Furthermore, the 95 % probability lung cancer risks were greater than the USEPA acceptable level of 10^?6 for both men and women through the inhalation route, revealing that exposure to PAHs posed an unacceptable potential cancer risk for the elderly in this study. As a result, some measures should be taken to reduce PAHs pollution and the exposure level to decrease the cancer risk for the general population, especially for the elderly.     

Using Multimedia Modeling to Expedite Site Characterization

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: This paper uses two case studies of U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons complex installations to illustrate the integration of expedited site characterization (ESC) and multimedia modeling in the remedial action decision making process. CONCEPTUAL SITE MODELS, MULTIMEDIA MODELS, AND EXPEDITED SITE CHARACTERIZATION: Conceptual site models outline assumptions about contaminates and the spatial/temporal distribution of potential receptors. Multimedia models simulate contaminant transport and fate through multiple environmental media, estimate potential human exposure via specific exposure pathways, and estimate the risk of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes. ESC relies on using monitoring data to quantify the key components of an initial conceptual site model that is modified iteratively using the multimedia model. CASE STUDIES: Two case studies are presented that used the ESC approach: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Pantex. LANL released radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds, into canyons surrounding the facility. The Pantex Plant has past waste management operations which included burning chemical wastes in unlined pits, burying wastes in unlined landfills, and discharging plant wastewaters into on-site surface waters. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies indicate that using multimedia models with the ESC approach can inform assessors about what, where, and how much site characterization data needs to be collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with risk assessment. Lowering the degree of uncertainty reduces the time and cost associated with assessing potential risk and increases the confidence that decision makers have in the assessments performed.