Closing Remarks

Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to photochemical smog pollution close to the earth's surface and to stratospheric ozone depletion. There is reason to suspect that the next round of scientific concern will be devoted to the perturbations in the “free troposphere.” Tropospheric ozone has been building up in many regions of the northern hemisphere. Ozone changes in the upper troposphere will exert a considerable impact on global warming. This could affect moisture levels, cloud amount and distribution, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics on different scales.

This paper analyzes: (1) the physical and chemical processes contributing to changes in tropospheric ozone concentration; (2) the observational evidence of previous ozone change; and (3) results drawn from computer modelling of past and future radiative forcing caused by rising ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere.

The solar and longwave radiative model developed by Wang et al. (1991) was used for calculating the change in radiative forcing to the troposphere-surface system that can be ascribed to changing concentrations in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nitric oxide emission from aircraft are a prime suspect for the observed increases in upper tropospheric ozone. The inference can be drawn that a radiative forcing of 0.2 to 0.35 Wm^-2 will result from a doubling of aircraft emissions over the next two decades. This will amount to 10 to 25 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to CO₂ alone for the same period. The effect of doubling aircraft emissions will increase as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover from the recent buildup of harmful chlorofluorocarbons. A large fraction of the radiative forcing that occurred during the 1970 to 1990 period can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone as opposed to increases in other greenhouse gases.     

Status and Environmental Impact of Emissions from Thermal Power Plants in India

The main emissions from coal combustion at thermal power plants are carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and airborne inorganic particles such as fly ash and soot; CO₂, methane, and CFCs are greenhouse gases. These emissions are considered to be partially responsible for harmful global climate change. This review summarizes the status of thermal power plants in India and their various types of emissions that directly or indirectly produce harmful effects on the environment and human health. Moreover, it focuses on various types of preventive measures used to avoid/minimize emissions.     

Air pollution,greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. About 30 years ago, it was recognized that the increase in tropospheric ozone from air pollution (NO_x, CO and others) is an important greenhouse forcing term. In addition, the recognition of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on stratospheric ozone and its climate effects linked chemistry and climate strongly. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins due to fast long-range transport, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e., aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols may nucleate more cloud droplets, which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. The dimming has a surface cooling effect and decreases evaporation of moisture from the surface, thus slows down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, absorption of solar radiation by black carbon and some organics increase atmospheric heating and tend to amplify greenhouse warming of the atmosphere.ABCs are concentrated in regional and mega-city hot spots. Long-range transport from these hot spots causes widespread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by widespread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. In S. Asia and N. Africa, the large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered both the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures and land–ocean contrast in surface temperatures, which in turn slow down the monsoon circulation and decrease rainfall over the continents. On the other hand, heating by black carbon warms the atmosphere at elevated levels from 2 to 6 km, where most tropical glaciers are located, thus strengthening the effect of GHGs on retreat of snow packs and glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers.Globally, the surface cooling effect of ABCs may have masked as much 47% of the global warming by greenhouse gases, with an uncertainty range of 20–80%. This presents a dilemma since efforts to curb air pollution may unmask the ABC cooling effect and enhance the surface warming. Thus efforts to reduce GHGs and air pollution should be done under one common framework. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.     

Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action

Abstract

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1–0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 °C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5–1 °C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 °C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2–2.5 °C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 °C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modern society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other non-CO₂ greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO₂ emissions while minimizing growth in CO₂ emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

Greenhouse Gas Dynamics of Municipal Solid Waste Alternatives

ABSTRACT

Previous greenhouse gas studies comparing landfilling with combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) are limited to examinations of the emissions weighted by their relative radiative activity. This paper adds another dimension by analyzing the atmospheric response to these emissions. The heart of the analysis is a time-dependent model using a perturbation analysis of the IS92a results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using as inputs the emissions from the two technologies, the model calculates atmospheric concentration histories. Scenarios for a landfill and a combustor envision each accepting 1000 Mg refuse/day for a 30-year operating period followed by a 70-year postclosure period. The baseline scenario examines the basic greenhouse impact of each technology. The other scenario adds active gas collection at the landfill and energy offset credits for avoided power plant carbon emissions. For both scenarios, CH₄ and trace gases from the landfill persist in the atmosphere, and they are relatively potent at forcing IR heating. The combination of these features place the landfill much higher than previously expected on the greenhouse impact scale. For the baseline scenario, the time-integrated radiative forcing from landfilling is 115 times that of combustion, and this ratio is 45 for the second scenario.     

Atmospheric composition change: Climate–Chemistry interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH₄), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O₃), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O₃ and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O₃, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.     

Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change

A photochemical model has been used to quantify the sensitivity of the tropospheric oxidants O₃ and OH to changes in CH₄, CO and NO emissions and to perturbations in climate and stratospheric chemistry. Coefficients of the form ∂1n[O₃]/∂1n[X] and ∂1n[OH]/∂1n[X], where [X] = flux of CH₄, CO, NO; stratospheric O₃ and H₂O have been calculated for a number of “chemically coherent” regions (e.g. nonpolluted continental, nonpolluted marine, urban) at low and middle latitudes. Sensitivities in O₃ and OH vary with regional emissions patterns and are nonlinear within a given region as [X] changes. In most cases increasing CH₄ and CO emissions will suppress OH (negative coefficients) and increase O₃ (positive coefficients) except in areas where NO and O₃ influenced by pollution are sufficient to increase OH. Stratospheric O₃ depletion will tend to decrease O₃ (except in high NO_x areas) and increase OH through enhanced u.v. photolysis. Increased levels of water vapor (one possible outcome of a global warming) will also decrease O₃ and increase OH. We conclude that in most regions, NO, CO and CH₄ emission increases will suppress OH and increase O₃, but these trends may be opposed by stratospheric O₃ depletion and climate change. A regional survey of OH and O₃ levels suggests that the tropics have a pivotal role in determining the earth's future oxidizing capacity.     

Secular trends of atmospheric methane (CH4)

Due partly to human activities the present yearly emissions of CH₄ exceed the atmospheric sinks, thus leading to a 1.2–1.9% per year atmospheric increase in the concentration of CH₄. New evidence based on studies of polar ice cores suggests that several hundred years ago the concentrations of CH₄ were perhaps only half of current values. These diverse findings are tied together in a single unified logistic model of atmospheric concentrations past, present and future. Using realistic growth rates of the sources of CH₄ caused by human activities, the model explains the concentrations and current growth rates. It also predicts that a doubling of CH₄ relative to present levels is possible given the long (9-year) atmospheric lifetime. Such increases of CH₄ concentrations may have already perturbed our global environment and may continue to do so in the future. The environmental effects include increased surface temperature of the earth, additional O₃ and CO in the clean non-urban atmosphere, depletions of tropospheric OH radicals, but perhaps also protection of the stratospheric ozone layer from destruction by man-made fluorocarbons.     

Ammonia abatement and its impact on emissions of nitrous oxide and methane—Part 2: application for Europe

Agriculture is an important source of NH₃, which contributes to acidification and eutrophication, as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases CH₄ and N₂O. Because of their common sources, emission reduction measures for one of these gases may affect emissions of others. These interrelations are often ignored in policy making. This study presents an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH₃ emissions on emissions of N₂O and CH₄ from agriculture in Europe. The analysis combines information from the NH₃ module of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model for Europe with the IPCC method for national greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC method for estimating agricultural emissions of N₂O and CH₄ is adjusted in order to use it in combination with the RAINS database for the European agricultural sector. As an example, we applied the adjusted method to the agricultural sector in the Netherlands and found that application of several NH₃ abatement options may result in a substantial increase in N₂O emissions while the effect on CH₄ emissions is relatively small. In Part 2 of this paper we focus on the resulting emissions for all European countries for 1990 and 2010.     

Ammonia abatement and its impact on emissions of nitrous oxide and methane in Europe—Part 1: method

Agriculture is an important source of NH₃, which contributes to acidification and eutrophication, as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases CH₄ and N₂O. Because of their common sources, emission reduction measures for one of these gases may affect emissions of others. These interrelations are often ignored in policy making. This study presents an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH₃ emissions on emissions of N₂O and CH₄ from agriculture in Europe. The analysis combines information from the NH₃ module of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model for Europe with the IPCC method for national greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC method for estimating agricultural emissions of N₂O and CH₄ is adjusted in order to use it in combination with the RAINS database for the European agricultural sector. As an example, we applied the adjusted method to the agricultural sector in the Netherlands and found that application of several NH₃ abatement options may result in a substantial increase in N₂O emissions while the effect on CH₄ emissions is relatively small. In Part 2 of this paper we focus on the resulting emissions for all European countries for 1990 and 2010.     

Effects of land use conversion and fertilization on CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O fluxes from typical hilly red soil

Land use conversion and fertilization have been widely reported to be important managements affecting the exchanges of greenhouse gases between soil and atmosphere. For comprehensive assessment of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes from hilly red soil induced by land use conversion and fertilization, a 14-month continuous field measurement was conducted on the newly converted citrus orchard plots with fertilization (OF) and without fertilization (ONF) and the conventional paddy plots with fertilization (PF) and without fertilization (PNF). Our results showed that land use conversion from paddy to orchard reduced the CH₄ fluxes at the expense of increasing the N₂O fluxes. Furthermore, fertilization significantly decreased the CH₄ fluxes from paddy soils in the second stage after conversion, but it failed to affect the CH₄ fluxes from orchard soils, whereas fertilizer applied to orchard and paddy increased soil N₂O emissions by 68 and 113.9 %, respectively. Thus, cumulative CH₄ emissions from the OF were 100 % lower, and N₂O emissions were 421 % higher than those from the PF. Although cumulative N₂O emissions were stimulated in the newly converted orchard, the strong reduction of CH₄ led to lower global warming potentials (GWPs) as compared to the paddy. Besides, fertilization in orchard increased GWPs but decreased GWPs of paddy soils. In addition, measurement of soil moisture, temperature, dissolved carbon contents (DOCs), and ammonia (NH₄ ⁺-N) and nitrate (NO₃ ^?-N) contents indicated a significant variation in soil properties and contributed to variations in soil CH₄ and N₂O fluxes. Results of this study suggest that land use conversion from paddy to orchard would benefit for reconciling greenhouse gas mitigation and citrus orchard cultivation would be a better agricultural system in the hilly red soils in terms of greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, selected fertilizer rate applied to paddy would lead to lower GWPs of CH₄ and N₂O. Nevertheless, more field measurements from newly converted orchard are highly needed to gain an insight into national and global accounting of CH₄ and N₂O emissions.     

Sources and emission of greenhouse gases in Danube Delta lakes

Production of methane and carbon dioxide as well as methane concentrations in surface waters and emissions to the atmosphere were investigated in two flow-through lake complexes (Uzlina–Isac and Puiu–Rosu–Rosulet) in the Danube Delta during post-flood conditions in May and low water level in September 2006. Retained nutrients fuelled primary production and remineralisation of bioavailable organic matter. This led to an observable net release of methane, particularly in the lakes Uzlina, Puiu and Rosu in May. Input from the Danube River, from redbuds and benthic release contributed to CH₄ concentrations in surface waters. In addition to significant river input of CO₂, this trace gas was released via aerobic remineralisation within the water column and in top sediments. Emission patterns of CO₂ widely overlapped with those of CH₄. Generally, greenhouse gas emissions peaked in the lake complex adjacent to the Danube River in May due to strong winds and decreased with increasing hydrological distance from the Danube River. Intense remineralisation of organic matter in the Danube Delta lakes results in a net source of atmospheric greenhouse gases.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Sources and emission of greenhouse gases in Danube Delta lakes

Production of methane and carbon dioxide as well as methane concentrations in surface waters and emissions to the atmosphere were investigated in two flow-through lake complexes (Uzlina–Isac and Puiu–Rosu–Rosulet) in the Danube Delta during post-flood conditions in May and low water level in September 2006. Retained nutrients fuelled primary production and remineralisation of bioavailable organic matter. This led to an observable net release of methane, particularly in the lakes Uzlina, Puiu and Rosu in May. Input from the Danube River, from redbuds and benthic release contributed to CH₄ concentrations in surface waters. In addition to significant river input of CO₂, this trace gas was released via aerobic remineralisation within the water column and in top sediments. Emission patterns of CO₂ widely overlapped with those of CH₄. Generally, greenhouse gas emissions peaked in the lake complex adjacent to the Danube River in May due to strong winds and decreased with increasing hydrological distance from the Danube River. Intense remineralisation of organic matter in the Danube Delta lakes results in a net source of atmospheric greenhouse gases.     

Analysis of cloud and precipitation chemistry at Whiteface Mountain,NY

Federal and state programs over the past two decades have resulted in the reduction of emissions of precursors of acid rain. Concomitant with these changes, measured concentrations of acidity in precipitation and in watersheds have shown a downward trend or improvement. However, another pathway for these precursors is through cloud and fog events that often tend to occur at high-elevation regions affecting the fauna and flora as well. In this study we report on long-term measurements of cloud water and precipitation chemistry made from 1994 onwards at a high-elevation location, Whiteface Mountain NY, in the northeastern United States. Trends and inter-relationship between the ions were examined along with ambient SO₂ measurements and Adirondack lakes chemistry data.     

Climatic forcing of nitrogen oxides through changes in tropospheric ozone and methane; global 3D model studies

A three-dimensional global chemical tracer model and a radiation transfer model have been used to study the role of NO_x emissions for radiative forcing of climate. Through production of tropospheric O₃, NO_x emissions lead to positive radiative forcing and warming. But by affecting the concentration of OH radicals, NO_x also reduces the levels of CH₄, thereby giving negative forcing and cooling. The lifetime of NO_x varies from hours to days, giving large spatial variations in the levels of NO_x. We have selected geographical regions representing different chemical and physical conditions, and chemical and radiative effects of reducing NO_x emissions by 20% in each region are studied. Due to nonlinearities in the O₃ chemistry as well as differences in convective activity, there are large geographical differences in the effect of NO_x on O₃ as well as variations in the annual profile of the changes. The effect of NO_x emissions on methane is also found to depend on the localisation of the emissions. The calculated ozone and methane forcing are of similar magnitude but of opposite sign. The methane effect acts on a global scale with a delay of approximately a decade, while the ozone effect is of regional character and occurs during weeks.     

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

Autonomous mobile platform for monitoring air emissions from industrial and municipal wastewater ponds

Significant amounts of volatile organic compounds and greenhouse gases are generated from wastewater lagoons and tailings ponds in Alberta, Canada. Accurate measurements of these air pollutants and greenhouse gases are needed to support management and regulatory decisions. A mobile platform was developed to measure air emissions from tailings pond in the oil sands region of Alberta. The mobile platform was tested in 2015 in a municipal wastewater treatment lagoon. With a flux chamber and a CO₂/CH₄ sensor on board, the mobile platform was able to measure CO₂ and CH₄ emissions over two days at two different locations in the pond. Flux emission rates of CO₂ and CH₄ that were measured over the study period suggest the presence of aerobic and anaerobic zones in the wastewater treatment lagoon. The study demonstrated the capabilities of the mobile platform in measuring fugitive air emissions and identified the potential for the applications in air and water quality monitoring programs.

Implications: The Mobile Platform demonstrated in this study has the ability to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fugitive sources such as municipal wastewater lagoons. This technology can be used to measure emission fluxes from tailings ponds with better detection of spatial and temporal variations of fugitive emissions. Additional air and water sampling equipment could be added to the mobile platform for a broad range of air and water quality studies in the oil sands region of Alberta.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO₂ emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO₂ emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m^?2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m^?2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2–14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3–4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO₂ on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO₂ effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO_x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO_x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a ‘hydrogen economy’ develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO₂ impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.     

Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality

Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems, heritage and climate. In this review the state of scientific understanding in relation to global and regional air quality is outlined. The review discusses air quality, in terms of emissions, processing and transport of trace gases and aerosols. New insights into the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. Trends in anthropogenic emissions both by region and globally are discussed as well as biomass burning emissions. In terms of chemical processing the major air quality elements of ozone, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and aerosols are covered. A number of topics are presented as a way of integrating the process view into the atmospheric context; these include the atmospheric oxidation efficiency, halogen and HO_x chemistry, nighttime chemistry, tropical chemistry, heat waves, megacities, biomass burning and the regional hot spot of the Mediterranean. New findings with respect to the transport of pollutants across the scales are discussed, in particular the move to quantify the impact of long-range transport on regional air quality. Gaps and research questions that remain intractable are identified. The review concludes with a focus of research and policy questions for the coming decade. In particular, the policy challenges for concerted air quality and climate change policy (co-benefit) are discussed.