Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California

It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state “technically” recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality.

Implications:?This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining increased biomass use. Further work involving economic assessment, seasonal or annual emissions and air quality modeling, and potential exposure analysis would help inform policy makers and industry with respect to further development and direction of biomass policy and bioenergy technology alternatives needed to meet energy and environmental goals in California.     

Future impacts of distributed power generation on ambient ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Distributed power generation-electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin-has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.     

Future Impacts of Distributed Power Generation on Ambient Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

ABSTRACT

Distributed power generation—electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin—has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.

IMPLICATIONS The San Joaquin Valley is a fast growing region that demands increasing power generation to sustain the economic development, and at the same time it is one of the worst polluted areas in the United States. Hence, the region demands alternatives that minimize the air quality impacts of power generation. This paper addresses the air quality impacts of distributed generation of power, an alternative to central power generation that can potentially reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions throughout the United States.     

Environmental implications of electricity purchase from independent power producers: a case study from Thailand

This paper analyses the effect on the environment of electricity purchase from independent power producers (IPPs) in the case of Thailand. The environmental implication is evaluated in terms of the net change in emission of air pollutants with electricity purchase from IPPs by a utility. The main finding of the study is that electricity purchase from a non-dispatchable IPP plant based on coal-fired generation would increase the net emissions compared with that without the purchase from IPPs. The study also shows that the lower plant factor of the IPP plant would also increase the emission of air pollutants. Furthermore, with non-dispatchable IPP plants, the total emission of air pollutants would increase, whereas with dispatchable IPP plants the total emission would decrease with the level of electricity purchases.     

The Impact of California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline on Real-World Vehicle Emissions

ABSTRACT

In mid-1996, California implemented Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG). The new fuel was designed to further decrease emissions of hydrocarbons (HC_s), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and other toxic species. In addition, it was formulated to reduce the ozone-forming potential of the HCs emitted by vehicles. Previous studies have observed that emissions from on-road vehicles can differ significantly from those predicted by mobile source emissions models, and so it is important to quantify the change in emissions in a real-world setting. In October 1995, prior to the introduction of California Phase 2 RFG, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) performed a study of vehicle emissions in Los Angeles' Sepulveda Tunnel. This study provided a baseline against which the results of a second experiment, conducted in July 1996, could be compared to evaluate the impact of California Phase 2 RFG on emissions from real-world vehicles. Compared with the 1995 experiment, CO and NO_x emissions exhibited statistically significant decreases, while the decrease in non-methane hydrocarbon emissions was not statistically significant.

Changes in the speciated HC emissions were evaluated. The benzene emission rate decreased by 27% and the overall emission rate of aromatic compounds decreased by 22% comparing the runs with similar speeds. Emissions of alkenes were virtually unchanged; however, emissions of combustion related unsaturates (e.g., acetylene, ethene) increased, while heavier alkenes decreased. The emission rate of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) exhibited a larger increase. Overall changes in the ozone-forming potential of the emissions were not significantly different, with the increased contributions to reactivity from paraffins, ole-fins, and MTBE being offset by a large decrease in reactivity due to aromatics.     

Intake-to-delivered-energy ratios for central station and distributed electricity generation in California

In previous work, we showed that the intake fraction (iF) for nonreactive primary air pollutants was 20 times higher in central tendency for small-scale, urban-sited distributed electricity generation (DG) sources than for large-scale, central station (CS) power plants in California [Heath, G.A., Granvold, P.W., Hoats, A.S., Nazaroff, W.W., 2006. Intake fraction assessment of the air pollutant exposure implications of a shift toward distributed electricity generation. Atmospheric Environment 40, 7164–7177]. The present paper builds on that study, exploring pollutant- and technology-specific aspects of population inhalation exposure from electricity generation. We compare California's existing CS-based system to one that is more reliant on DG units sited in urban areas. We use Gaussian plume modeling and a GIS-based exposure analysis to assess 25 existing CSs and 11 DG sources hypothetically located in the downtowns of California's most populous cities. We consider population intake of three pollutants—PM_2.5, NO_x and formaldehyde—directly emitted by five DG technologies—natural gas (NG)-fired turbines, NG internal combustion engines (ICE), NG microturbines, diesel ICEs, and fuel cells with on-site NG reformers. We also consider intake of these pollutants from existing CS facilities, most of which use large NG turbines, as well as from hypothetical facilities located at these same sites but meeting California's best-available control technology standards. After systematically exploring the sensitivity of iF to pollutant decay rate, the iFs for each of the three pollutants for all DG and CS cases are estimated. To efficiently compare the pollutant- and technology-specific exposure potential on an appropriate common basis, a new metric is introduced and evaluated: the intake-to-delivered-energy ratio (IDER). The IDER expresses the mass of pollutant inhaled by an exposed population owing to emissions from an electricity generation unit per quantity of electric energy delivered to the place of use. We find that the central tendency of IDER is much greater for almost every DG technology evaluated than for existing CS facilities in California.     

Environmental and economic evaluation of bioenergy in Ontario, Canada

We examined life cycle environmental and economic implications of two near-term scenarios for converting cellulosic biomass to energy, generating electricity from cofiring biomass in existing coal power plants, and producing ethanol from biomass in stand-alone facilities in Ontario, Canada. The study inventories near-term biomass supply in the province, quantifies environmental metrics associated with the use of agricultural residues for producing electricity and ethanol, determines the incremental costs of switching from fossil fuels to biomass, and compares the cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions abatement achieved through the use of the bioenergy. Implementing a biomass cofiring rate of 10% in existing coal-fired power plants would reduce annual GHG emissions by 2.3 million metric tons (t) of CO2 equivalent (7% of the province's coal power plant emissions). The substitution of gasoline with ethanol/gasoline blends would reduce annual provincial lightduty vehicle fleet emissions between 1.3 and 2.5 million t of CO2 equivalent (3.5-7% of fleet emissions). If biomass sources other than agricultural residues were used, additional emissions reductions could be realized. At current crude oil prices ($70/barrel) and levels of technology development of the bioenergy alternatives, the biomass electricity cofiring scenario analyzed is more cost-effective for mitigating GHG emissions ($22/t of CO2 equivalent for a 10% cofiring rate) than the stand-alone ethanol production scenario ($92/t of CO2 equivalent). The economics of biomass cofiring benefits from existing capital, whereas the cellulosic ethanol scenario does not. Notwithstanding this result, there are several factors that increase the attractiveness of ethanol. These include uncertainty in crude oil prices, potential for marked improvements in cellulosic ethanol technology and economics, the province's commitment to 5% ethanol content in gasoline, the possibility of ethanol production benefiting from existing capital, and there being few alternatives for moderate-to-large-scale GHG emissions reductions in the transportation sector.     

Total versus urban: Well-to-wheels assessment of criteria pollutant emissions from various vehicle/fuel systems

The potential impact on the environment of alternative vehicle/fuel systems needs to be evaluated, especially with respect to human health effects resulting from air pollution. We used the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to examine the well-to-wheels (WTW) emissions of five criteria pollutants (VOCs, NO_x, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO) for nine vehicle/fuel systems: (1) conventional gasoline vehicles; (2) conventional diesel vehicles; (3) ethanol (E85) flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) fueled with corn-based ethanol; (4) E85 FFVs fueled with switchgrass-based ethanol; (5) gasoline hybrid vehicles (HEVs); (6) diesel HEVs; (7) electric vehicles (EVs) charged using the average U.S. generation mix; (8) EVs charged using the California generation mix; and (9) hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Pollutant emissions were separated into total and urban emissions to differentiate the locations of emissions, and emissions were presented by sources. The results show that WTW emissions of the vehicle/fuel systems differ significantly, in terms of not only the amounts but also with respect to locations and sources, both of which are important in evaluating alternative vehicle/fuel systems. E85 FFVs increase total emissions but reduce urban emissions by up to 30% because the majority of emissions are released from farming equipment, fertilizer manufacture, and ethanol plants, all of which are located in rural areas. HEVs reduce both total and urban emissions because of the improved fuel economy and lower emissions. While EVs significantly reduce total emissions of VOCs and CO by more than 90%, they increase total emissions of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 by 35–325%. However, EVs can reduce urban PM emissions by more than 40%. FCVs reduce VOCs, CO, and NO_x emissions, but they increase both total and urban PM emissions because of the high process emissions that occur during hydrogen production. This study emphasizes the importance of specifying a thorough life-cycle emissions inventory that can account for both the locations and sources of the emissions to assist in achieving a fair comparison of alternative vehicle/fuel options in terms of their environmental impacts.     

Modeling the benefits of power plant emission controls in Massachusetts

Older fossil-fueled power plants provide a significant portion of emissions of criteria air pollutants in the United States, in part because these facilities are not required to meet the same emission standards as new sources under the Clean Air Act. Pending regulations for older power plants need information about any potential public health benefits of emission reductions, which can be estimated by combining emissions information, dispersion modeling, and epidemiologic evidence. In this article, we develop an analytical modeling framework that can evaluate health benefits of emission controls, and we apply our model to two power plants in Massachusetts. Using the CALPUFF atmospheric dispersion model, we estimate that use of Best Available Control Technology (BACT) for NOx and SO2 would lead to maximum annual average secondary particulate matter (PM) concentration reductions of 0.2 microg/m3. When we combine concentration reductions with current health evidence, our central estimate is that the secondary PM reductions from these two power plants would avert 70 deaths per year in a population of 33 million individuals. Although benefit estimates could differ substantially with different interpretations of the health literature, parametric perturbations within CALPUFF and other simple model changes have relatively small impacts from an aggregate risk perspective. While further analysis would be required to reduce uncertainties and expand on our analytical model, our framework can help decision-makers evaluate the magnitude and distribution of benefits under different control scenarios.     

Control strategies of atmospheric mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants in China

Atmospheric mercury (Hg) emission from coal is one of the primary sources of anthropogenic discharge and pollution. China is one of the few countries in the world whose coal consumption constitutes about 70% of total primary energy, and over half of coals are burned directly for electricity generation. Atmospheric emissions of Hg and its speciation from coal-fired power plants are of great concern owing to their negative impacts on regional human health and ecosystem risks, as well as long-distance transport. In this paper, recent trends of atmospheric Hg emissions and its species split from coal-fired power plants in China during the period of 2000-2007 are evaluated, by integrating each plant's coal consumption and emission factors, which are classified by different subcategories of boilers, particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) control devices. Our results show that the total Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants have begun to decrease from the peak value of 139.19 t in 2005 to 134.55 t in 2007, though coal consumption growing steadily from 1213.8 to 1532.4 Mt, which can be mainly attributed to the co-benefit Hg reduction by electrostatic precipitators/fabric filters (ESPs/FFs) and wet flue gas desulfurization (WFGD), especially the sharp growth in installation of WFGD both in the new and existing power plants since 2005. In the coming 12th five-year-plan, more and more plants will be mandated to install De-NO(x) (nitrogen oxides) systems (mainly selective catalytic reduction [SCR] and selective noncatalytic reduction [SNCR]) for minimizing NO(x) emission, thus the specific Hg emission rate per ton of coal will decline further owing to the much higher co-benefit removal efficiency by the combination of SCR + ESPs/FFs + WFGD systems. Consequently, SCR + ESPs/FFs + WFGD configuration will be the main path to abate Hg discharge from coal-fired power plants in China in the near future. However advanced specific Hg removal technologies are necessary for further reduction of elemental Hg discharge in the long-term.     

Acid Rain Emission Allowances and Future Capacity Growth in the Electric Utility Industry

While the new source emission offset provision contained in recent acid rain proposals would result in increasing utility costs over time, the demand for emission offsets from new powerplant units should be satisfied even under conditions of high future growth in electrical generating capacity. This is because the amount of emissions from new generating units will be small relative to the quantity of offsets that could be made available in the emission “allowance” market.

Under the President’s July 1989 proposal, most utilities would be able to reduce their emissions well below their allowance levels via fuel switching, the installation of control technology, or the use of other emission reduction techniques, in order to create more “headroom” for the construction of new generating units. Retirements and decreasing utilization of existing power plants over time would liberate other emission allowances for use by new units. Industrial sources could “opt in” to the acid rain program and provide allowances for new generating units as well. A number of provisions in the recently passed Senate and House bills would make still further sources of allowances available to offset emissions from new generating capacity.

Hoarding of allowances by utilities is unlikely to be a problem since allowances would be distributed to at least 88 utilities in 34 states, and many of these utilities would have the ability to cost-effectively free up more allowances through “overcontrol” than they would need to cover their own future growth. Even a relatively small number of utilities in a limited number of states would have the ability to supply all of the allowances needed to cover new capacity growth from those entities that could not otherwise provide their own offsets. At projected prices of up to $800/ton, the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would be considerable. Moreover, if hoarding did begin to occur, the price of allowances would respond by rising to higher levels and the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would become even more compelling, as greater opportunities would develop for reducing costs (and electricity rates).     

Multispecies remote sensing measurements of vehicle emissions on Sherman Way in Van Nuys,California

As part of the 2010 Van Nuys tunnel study, researchers from the University of Denver measured on-road fuel-specific light-duty vehicle emissions from nearly 13,000 vehicles on Sherman Way (0.4 miles west of the tunnel) in Van Nuys, California, with its multispecies Fuel Efficiency Automobile Test (FEAT) remote sensor a week ahead of the tunnel measurements. The remote sensing mean gram per kilogram carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) measurements are 8.9% lower, 41% higher, and 24% higher than the tunnel measurements, respectively. The remote sensing CO/NO_x and HC/NO_x mass ratios are 28% lower and 20% higher than the comparable tunnel ratios. Comparisons with the historical tunnel measurements show large reductions in CO, HC, and NO_x over the past 23 yr, but little change in the HC/NO_x mass ratio since 1995. The fleet CO and HC emissions are increasingly dominated by a few gross emitters, with more than a third of the total emissions being contributed by less than 1% of the fleet. An example of this is a 1995 vehicle measured three times with an average HC emission of 419 g/kg fuel (two-stroke snowmobiles average 475 g/kg fuel), responsible for 4% of the total HC emissions. The 2008 economic downturn dramatically reduced the number of new vehicles entering the fleet, leading to an age increase (>1 model year) of the Sherman Way fleet that has increased the fleet's ammonia (NH₃) emissions. The mean NH₃ levels appear little changed from previous measurements collected in the Van Nuys tunnel in 1993. Comparisons between weekday and weekend data show few fleet differences, although the fraction of light-duty diesel vehicles decreased from the weekday (1.7%) to Saturday (1.2%) and Sunday (0.6%).

Implications: On-road remote sensing emission measurements of light-duty vehicles on Sherman Way in Van Nuys, California, show large historical emission reductions for CO and HC emissions despite an older fleet arising from the 2008 economic downturn. Fleet CO and HC emissions are increasingly dominated by a few gross emitters, with a single 1995 vehicle measured being responsible for 4% of the entire fleet's HC emissions. Finding and repairing and/or scrapping as little as 2% of the fleet would reduce on-road tailpipe emissions by as much as 50%. Ammonia emissions have locally increased with the increasing fleet age.     

Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from drained irrigated rice fields

One of the important cultural practices that affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from tropical rice plantations is the water drainage system. While drainage can reduce methane emissions, it can also increase nitrous oxide emissions, as well as reduce yields. In this experiment, four different water drainage systems were compared in a rice field in central Thailand including: (1) continuous flooding, (2) mid-season drainage, (3) multiple drainage and (4) a local method (drainage was done according to local cultural practice) in order to find a system of drainage that would optimize yields while simultaneously limiting methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Methane and nitrous oxide emission were observed and compared with rice yield and physical changes of rice plants. It was found that drainage during the flowering period could reduce methane emission. Interestingly, nitrous oxide emission was related to number of drain days rather than the frequency of draining. Fewer drain days can help reduce nitrous oxide emission. The mid-season drainage and the multiple drainage, with 6.9% and 11.4% reduction in rice yield, respectively, had an average methane emission per crop 27% and 35% lower when compared to the local method. Draining with fewer drain days during the flowering period was recommended as a compromise between emissions and yield. The field drainage can be used as an option to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice fields with acceptable yield reduction. Mid-season drainage during the rice flowering period, with a shortened drainage period (3 days), is suggested as a compromise between the need to reduce global warming and current socio-economic realities.     

Exhaust temperature profiles for application of passive diesel particulate filters to solid waste collection vehicles in California

To reduce public exposure to diesel particulate matter (DPM), the California Air Resources Board has begun adoption of a series of rules to reduce these emissions from in-use heavy-duty vehicles. Passive diesel particulate filter (DPF) after-treatment technologies are a cost-effective method to reduce DPM emissions and have been used on a variety of vehicles worldwide. Two passive DPFs were interim-verified in California and approved federally for use in most 1994--2002 engine families for vehicles meeting min engine exhaust temperature requirements for successful filter regeneration. Some vehicles, however, may not be suited to passive DPFs because of lower engine exhaust temperatures. The purpose of this study was to determine the applicability of two types of passive DPFs to solid waste collection vehicles, the group of vehicles for which California recently mandated in-use DPM reductions. We selected 60 collection vehicles to represent the four main types of collection vehicle duty cycles--rolloffs, and front-end, rear, and side loaders--and collected second-by-second engine exhaust temperature readings for one week from each vehicle. As a group, the collection vehicles exhibited low engine exhaust temperatures, making the application of passive DPFs to these vehicles difficult. Only 35% of tested vehicles met the temperature requirements for one passive DPF, whereas 60% met the temperature requirements for the other. Engine exhaust temperatures varied by vehicle type. Side and front-end loaders met the engine exhaust temperature requirements in the greatest number of cases with approximately 50-90% achieving the required regeneration temperatures. Only 8-25% of the rear loader and roll-off collection vehicles met the engine exhaust temperature requirements. Solid waste collection vehicles represent a diverse fleet with a variety of duty cycles. Low engine exhaust temperatures will need to be addressed for successful use of passive DPFs in this application.     

Exhaust Temperature Profiles for Application of Passive Diesel Particulate Filters to Solid Waste Collection Vehicles in California

Abstract

To reduce public exposure to diesel particulate matter (DPM), the California Air Resources Board has begun adoption of a series of rules to reduce these emissions from in-use heavy-duty vehicles. Passive diesel particulate filter (DPF) after-treatment technologies are a cost-effective method to reduce DPM emissions and have been used on a variety of vehicles worldwide. Two passive DPFs were interim-verified in California and approved federally for use in most 1994–2002 engine families for vehicles meeting min engine exhaust temperature requirements for successful filter regeneration. Some vehicles, however, may not be suited to passive DPFs because of lower engine exhaust temperatures. The purpose of this study was to determine the applicability of two types of passive DPFs to solid waste collection vehicles, the group of vehicles for which California recently mandated in-use DPM reductions. We selected 60 collection vehicles to represent the four main types of collection vehicle duty cycles—roll-offs, and front-end, rear, and side loaders—and collected second-by-second engine exhaust temperature readings for one week from each vehicle. As a group, the collection vehicles exhibited low engine exhaust temperatures, making the application of passive DPFs to these vehicles difficult. Only 35% of tested vehicles met the temperature requirements for one passive DPF, whereas 60% met the temperature requirements for the other. Engine exhaust temperatures varied by vehicle type. Side and front-end loaders met the engine exhaust temperature requirements in the greatest number of cases with ～50–90% achieving the required regeneration temperatures. Only 8–25% of the rear loader and roll-off collection vehicles met the engine exhaust temperature requirements. Solid waste collection vehicles represent a diverse fleet with a variety of duty cycles. Low engine exhaust temperatures will need to be addressed for successful use of passive DPFs in this application.     

Central power generation versus distributed generation – An air quality assessment in the South Coast Air Basin of California

This study assesses the air quality impacts of central power generation and compares them with the impacts of distributed generation (DG). The central power plant emissions factors used are from a newly installed combined cycle gas turbine system. Because location of power plants is a key parameter affecting air quality impacts, this study considers three potential locations for the installation of central power plants. Air quality impacts are evaluated for the South Coast Air Basin of California, in the year 2010, using a three-dimensional air quality model. Results are compared to air quality impacts from two potential DG scenarios to meet the same power demand as that of the central power plant case.Even though emissions from central generation are lower than emissions from the DG technology mix considered herein, central generation concentrates emissions in a small area, whereas DG spreads emissions throughout a larger cross-section of the air basin. As a result, air quality impacts from central generation are more significant than those from DG. The study also shows that assessment of air quality impacts from distributed and central generation should not only consider emissions levels, but also the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions and the air quality that results from atmospheric chemistry and transport – highly non-linear processes.Finally, analysis of population exposure to ozone and PM_2.5 shows that central generation located in coastal areas upwind from populated areas would cause the highest population exposure and even though emissions from central generation are considerably lower than DG emissions spread throughout the basin, results show that central generation causes a higher pollutant exposure than DG.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from light duty vehicles

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions measurements were made on light duty gasoline and light duty diesel vehicles during chassis dynamometer testing conducted at the Environment Canada and California Air Resources Board vehicle emissions laboratories between 2001 and 2007. Per phase and composite FTP emission rates were measured. A subset of vehicles was also tested using other driving cycles to characterize emissions as a function of different driving conditions. Vehicles were both new (<6500 km) and in-use (6500–160,000 km) and were tested on low sulfur gasoline (<30 ppm) or low sulfur diesel (<300 ppm). Measurements from selected published studies were combined with these new measurements to give a test fleet of 467 vehicles meeting both US EPA and California criteria pollutant emissions standards between Tier 0 and Tier 2 Bin 3 or SULEV. Aggregate distance-based and fuel-based emission factors for N₂O are reported for each emission standard and for each of the different test cycles. Results show that the distinction between light duty automobile and light duty truck is not significant for any of the emission standards represented by the test fleet and the distinction between new and aged catalyst is significant for vehicles meeting all emission standards but Tier 2. This is likely due to the relatively low mileage accumulated by the Tier 2 vehicles in this study as compared to the durability requirement of the standard. The FTP composite N₂O emission factors for gasoline vehicles meeting emission standards more stringent than Tier 1 are substantially lower than those currently used by both Canada and the US for the 2005 inventories. N₂O emission factors from test cycles other than the FTP illustrate the variability of emission factors as a function of driving conditions. N₂O emission factors are shown to strongly correlate with NMHC/NMOG emission standards and less strongly with NO_X and CO emission standards. A review of several published reports on the effect of gasoline sulfur content on N₂O emissions suggests that additional research is needed to adequately quantify the increase in N₂O emissions as a function of fuel sulfur.     

Deriving fuel-based emission factor thresholds to interpret heavy-duty vehicle roadside plume measurements

Remote sensing devices have been used for decades to measure gaseous emissions from individual vehicles at the roadside. Systems have also been developed that entrain diluted exhaust and can also measure particulate matter (PM) emissions. In 2015, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) reported that 8% of in-field diesel particulate filters (DPF) on heavy-duty (HD) vehicles were malfunctioning and emitted about 70% of total diesel PM emissions from the DPF-equipped fleet. A new high-emitter problem in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet had emerged. Roadside exhaust plume measurements reflect a snapshot of real-world operation, typically lasting several seconds. In order to relate roadside plume measurements to laboratory emission tests, we analyzed carbon dioxide (CO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_X), and PM emissions collected from four HD vehicles during several driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. We examined the fuel-based emission factors corresponding to possible exceedances of emission standards as a function of vehicle power. Our analysis suggests that a typical HD vehicle will exceed the model year (MY) 2010 emission standards (of 0.2 g NO_X/bhp-hr and 0.01 g PM/bhp-hr) by three times when fuel-based emission factors are 9.3 g NO_X/kg fuel and 0.11 g PM/kg using the roadside plume measurement approach. Reported limits correspond to 99% confidence levels, which were calculated using the detection uncertainty of emissions analyzers, accuracy of vehicle power calculations, and actual emissions variability of fixed operational parameters. The PM threshold was determined for acceleration events between 0.47 and 1.4 mph/sec only, and the NO_X threshold was derived from measurements where after-treatment temperature was above 200°C. Anticipating a growing interest in real-world driving emissions, widespread implementation of roadside exhaust plume measurements as a compliment to in-use vehicle programs may benefit from expanding this analysis to a larger sample of in-use HD vehicles.

Implications: Regulatory agencies, civil society, and the public at large have a growing interest in vehicle emission compliance in the real world. Leveraging roadside plume measurements to identify vehicles with malfunctioning emission control systems is emerging as a viable new and useful method to assess in-use performance. This work proposes fuel-based emission factor thresholds for PM and NOx that signify exceedances of emission standards on a work-specific basis by analyzing real-time emissions in the laboratory. These thresholds could be used to prescreen vehicles before roadside enforcement inspection or other inquiry, enhance and further develop emission inventories, and potentially develop new requirements for heavy-duty inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including but not limited to identifying vehicles for further testing.     

Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions

Globally, 1.3 billion on-road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO₂, and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. Empirical assessment of vehicle emissions is challenging because of myriad fuels and technologies, intervehicle variability, multiple emission processes, variability in operating conditions, and varying capabilities of measurement methods. Fuel economy and emissions regulations have been effective in reducing total emissions of key pollutants. Real-world fuel use and emissions are consistent with official values in the United States but not in Europe or countries that adopt European standards. Portable emission measurements systems, which uncovered a recent emissions cheating scandal, have a key role in regulatory programs to ensure conformity between “real driving emissions” and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Vehicles emit precursors to several important secondary pollutants, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols, which requires a multipollutant emissions and air quality management strategy. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid-century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other trends are addressed with regard to technology, emissions controls, vehicle operations, emission measurements, impacts on exposure, and impacts on public health.

Implications: Without specific policies to the contrary, fossil fuels are likely to continue to be the major source of on-road vehicle energy consumption. Fuel economy and emission standards are generally effective in achieving reductions per unit of vehicle activity. However, the number of vehicles and miles traveled will increase. Total energy use and emissions depend on factors such as fuels, technologies, land use, demographics, economics, road design, vehicle operation, societal values, and others that affect demand for transportation, mode choice, energy use, and emissions. Thus, there are many opportunities to influence future trends in vehicle energy use and emissions.     

Ammonia emissions from a representative in-use fleet of light and medium-duty vehicles in the California South Coast Air Basin

We used Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) to measure tailpipe ammonia emissions from a representative fleet of 41 light and medium-duty vehicles recruited in the California South Coast Air Basin. A total of 121 chassis dynamometer emissions tests were conducted on these vehicles and the test results were examined to determine the effects of several key variables on ammonia emissions. Variables included vehicle type, driving cycle, emissions technology, ammonia precursor emissions (i.e. CO and NOx) and odometer readings/model year as a proxy for catalyst age. The mean ammonia emissions factor was 46 mg km^?1 (σ = 48 mg km^?1) for the vehicle fleet. Average emission factors for specific vehicle groups are also reported in this study. Results of this study suggest vehicles with the highest ammonia emission rates possess the following characteristics: medium-duty vehicles, older emissions technologies, mid-range odometer readings, and higher CO emissions. In addition, vehicles subjected to aggressive driving conditions are likely to be higher ammonia emitters. Since the vehicles we studied were representative of recent model year vehicles and technologies in urban airsheds, the results of our study will be useful for developing ammonia emissions inventories in Los Angeles and other urban areas where California-certified vehicles are driven. However, efforts should also be made to continue emissions testing on in-use vehicles to ensure greater confidence in the ammonia emission factors reported here.