Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

Effects of Acid Rain and Gaseous Pollutants on Forest Productivity: A Regional Scale Approach

Increased industrialization of the eastern U.S. over the past several decades has led to regional scale buildup of atmospheric pollutants and concern over possible losses in forest productivity within this region. This paper describes the rationale, methodology, and some preliminary results of a large regional scale study designed to characterize and quantify forest growth impacts attributable to atmospheric stress from both gaseous pollutants and acid rainfall. This research employs a variety of dendroecological techniques to examine the influence of climatic factors, tree age, soil type, competition, and air pollution on tree growth. This broadly collaborative project involves twelve government and university research stations working with a common experimental protocol to examine ≥50 year ringwidth series from approximately 6000 trees distributed over an area extending from Maine to North Carolina and as far west as Missouri. Principal objectives of this research are to determine whether a systematic pattern of decreasing forest growth has occurred, to define its temporal, spatial, and quantitative characteristics, to determine its relationship to differences in soil quality and tree species, and to evaluate its correlation with present and past indices of atmospheric deposition.     

Modeling interactions at the tributyltin-kaolinite interface

Tributyltin (TBT) is a common pollutant in natural environments and the interaction with mineral surfaces largely determine its solubility, speciation, bioavailability, and transport in aqueous systems. The present work aimed at quantifying the TBT adsorption using kaolinite and a kaolinite-rich sediment as sorbent materials. Experiments were conducted under conditions that are important from an environmental perspective. Proton adsorption data were determined for kaolinite as a function of pH and electrolyte concentrations to ascertain intrinsic acidity constants and site density values. The pH(zpc) of kaolinite sample KGa was determined at 4.9 by surface titration. The generalized diffused double layer model (DLM) was used to quantify both, proton and TBT adsorption. Following intrinsic acidity and TBT binding constants resulting from the TBT/kaolinite system were used: >SOH ==> >SO- + H+, logK = -5.4; >SOH + H+ ==> SOH2+, logK = 4.6; >XNa + H ==> XH + Na+, logK(X/H+) = -1.1; >SO- + TBT+ ==> >SOTBT, logK = 3.5; >XNa + TBT+ ==> Na+, logK(X/TBT) = 1.0. All surface-active variable charge sites on kaolinite, namely >AlOH and >SiOH are grouped and collectively refer to as >SOH in this paper. >XNa refers to ion exchange sites. Modeling of TBT adsorption onto kaolinite was conducted distinguishing selective (high affinity) sites (>S(S)OH) in addition to non-selective sites (>SOH). The inclusion of >S(S)OH was essential in order to quantify TBT adsorption successfully, while the inclusion of >XNa was optional. The reduction of surface coverage values by a 10-fold TBT adsorption modeling is in agreement with the results of molecular model calculations of the system. Parameters calculated for the monophase kaolinite were subsequently used to quantify the TBT adsorption onto kaolinite-rich sediment.     

Hydrocarbon Production and Photochemical Ozone Formation in Forest Burn Plumes

The purpose of this paper is to describe ozone production in forest slash burn plumes. Plumes from controlled fires in the state of Washington were monitored using an instrumented aircraft. Ozone, oxides of nitrogen, condensation nuclei, and visual range (nephelometer) were measured continuously on board the plane. Airborne grab samples were collected for detailed hydrocarbon analysis.

The slash burn plumes were found to contain significant quantities of ozone. A buildup of 40–50 ppb above the ambient background ozone concentrations was not unusual. Hydrocarbon analyses revealed the presence of many photochemically reactive olefins in the plume. Hydrocarbon/NO _x ratios were favorable for photochemical oxidant production.     

Methodology for Siting Ambient Air Monitors at the Neighborhood Scale

Abstract

In siting a monitor to measure compliance with U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for par-ticulate matter (PM), there is a need to characterize variations in PM concentration within a neighborhood-scale region to achieve monitor siting objectives. A simple methodology is provided here for the selection of a neighborhood-scale site for meeting either of the two objectives identified for PM monitoring. This methodology is based on analyzing middle-scale (from 100 to 500 m) data from within the area of interest. The required data can be obtained from widely available dispersion models and emissions databases.

The performance of the siting methodology was evaluated in a neighborhood-scale field study conducted in Hudson County, NJ, to characterize the area’s inhalable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations. Air monitors were located within a 2- by 2-km area in the vicinity of the Lincoln Tunnel entrance in Hudson County. Results indicate the siting methodology performed well, providing a positive relationship between the predicted concentration rank at each site and the actual rank experienced during the field study. Also discussed are factors that adversely affected the predictive capabilities of the model.     

Modeling and spatially distributing forest net primary production at the regional scale

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area's ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Analysis and Modeling of Air Quality at Street Intersections

Four roadway intersection air pollution models were compared to experimental data and evaluated. The models included the recently developed Texas Intersection Model (TEXIN), The Intersection Midblock Model (IMM), the program MICRO and the Indirect Source Guidelines. Data obtained by Texas A&M University at two intersections in Texas and by CALTRANS at an intersection in California were used for the evaluation. The TEXIN Model performed best in all comparisons to the data. The IMM was almost as accurate as TEXIN but required an order of magnitude more input information and computer time. MICRO and the Indirect Source Guidelines performed poorly.     

Primary source attribution and analysis of α-pinene photooxidation products in Duke Forest,North Carolina

Samples of fine particulate organic matter were collected outside Durham, NC in the Duke Research Forest as part of the CELTIC study in July 2003. Particulate samples were collected on quartz filters using high volume air sampling equipment, and samples were analyzed for polar and non-polar organic species. Among compounds analyzed, oxidation products of α-pinene, namely pinic acid and pinonic acid, were identified in all samples. Pinic acid, being a dicarboxylic acid, has a low vapor pressure of the order of 10⁻⁸ Torr and is expected to contribute significantly to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from the oxidation of α-pinene. Source contribution estimates from primary organic aerosol emissions were computed using the organic species as molecular markers with the chemical mass balance (CMB) model. The unapportioned organic carbon (OC) was determined as the difference between measured OC and OC apportioned to primary sources. This unapportioned OC was then correlated with pinic and pinonic acid to get a better understanding of the role of monoterpene oxidation products to form SOA. A reasonably good fit between pinic acid concentrations and unapportioned OC levels is indicative of the contribution of α-pinene oxidation products to SOA formation in ambient atmosphere. The results are significant considering the role of monoterpene emissions to global atmospheric chemistry.     

Modeling of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions and Acidic Precipitation at Mesoscale Distances

A steady state mesoscale model developed to predict primary SO₂ concentrations from a single point source is presented. The model was validated with data from the Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transport and Transformation (MISTT) project, with root mean square errors of 9.69 μg m^?3 and 0.42 μg m^?3 for SO₂ and SO₄ respectively. Wet deposition (washout and rainout), eddy dispersivity, dry deposition of SO₂ and mean wind speed were found to be the most important factors controlling sulfur dioxide and sulfate concentrations. Estimation of precipitation acidity was then carried out using scavenging theory. The greatest potential acidification occurred approximately 200 km from the source along plume centerllne, which indicates a rather local effect as opposed to a long distance effect. The cross-plume influence was up to 60 km in width at a distance of 400 km from the source.     

Regional Photochemical Measurement and Modeling Studies: A Summary of the Air & Waste Management Association International Specialty Conference

Abstract

This paper summarizes the Air & Waste Management Association’s International Specialty Conference, "Regional Photochemical Measurement and Modeling Studies," held in San Diego, California, on November 8-12,1993. The purpose of the conference was to facilitate exchange of information and to initiate better communication and interaction among scientists, air quality managers, regulators, and others involved in or applying tools (models and measurements to support the modeling efforts) that can be used to develop equitable and effective emissions management practices for attainment of ozone standards. Attendees heard more than 350 presentations from authors representing nearly 30 air quality and meteorological measurement and modeling studies from 18 countries. While the primary emphasis of the conference was technical, two policy sessions were included (Plenary and Concluding Sessions) to place the technical results in perspective with the policy issues. The technical agenda was divided into three subjects: Analysis of Field Measurements (results and interpretation), Modeling (status and results), and Other Topics. Papers presented at the conference are being published in a variety of journals or books to meet the needs of the scientific and policy communities. A complete bibliographical listing of the papers presented at the conference is included with this paper.

An unexpected outcome of the conference has been the development of an initiative for continuing the intercomparison of goals and scientific findings from regional air quality studies in Europe and North America, entitled “Regional Oxidants Programs Intercomparison” (ROxPIn). This paper will also discuss the goals and objectives of ROxPIn.     

Field Testing and Computer Modeling of an Oxygen Combustion System at the EPA Mobile Incinerator

The LINDE® Oxygen Combustion System has been demonstrated successfully at the EPA Denney Farm site as part of the modified EPA mobile incinerator. This paper describes the field testing results and computer modeling of the LINDE system. The oxygen system enables the EPA unit to incinerate dioxin and PCB contaminated soil at a consistent rate of 4000 lb/h—200 percent of the original maximum capacity. The pure oxygen combustion system improved the thermal efficiency of the incinerator by over 60 percent and reduced the flue gas volume dramatically. Therefore, the dust carryover problem was mitigated. The destruction and removal efficiencies of hazardous wastes exceeded EPA requirements.

The design of the proprietary burner allows the use of up to 100 percent oxygen in place of air for incineration with improvements over conventional oxy-fuel burners. As a result, the temperature distributions in the rotary kiln are uniform and NO_x emissions are low.

The oxygen combustion system, controlled by a programmable controller, provided much better response and flexibility than conventional air based systems. The system generated a stable flame and responsed well to the transient conditions of the rotary kiln. Kiln puff occurrence was virtually eliminated in the operation of the mobile incinerator.

A computer model of the incinerator was developed and used for the process design of the LINDE system. The model predicted the test results reasonably well. This model can be a useful tool in the design and operation of rotary kiln incineration systems.     

Regional aspects and statistical characterisation of the load with semivolatile organic compounds at remote Austrian forest sites

Spruce needles and humus layer of 25 remote forest sites spread all over Austria were investigated for their concentrations of PCDD/F, PCB, HCH, HCB, PCP, DDX and PAH. Influences of the sites' location on the detected concentrations have been identified: The north of Austria was characterised by a comparably higher overall pollutant load. In addition, altitudinal aspects were addressed. Between several compounds significant positive correlations have been identified, which were more pronounced for compounds with a stronger causal relationship. Pattern analyses allowed to identify--even for the remote sites--differences between the relative PCDD/F, HCH, DDX and PAH patterns of the sites. Partly, these different patterns were related to significantly higher or lower corresponding absolute concentrations of the sites.     

Modeling potential vadose-zone transport of nitrogen from onsite wastewater systems at the development scale

Water in the urban front-range corridor of Colorado has become an increasingly critical resource as the state faces both supply issues as well as anthropogenic degradation of water quality in several aquifers used for drinking water. A proposed development (up to 1100 homes over two quarter-quarter sections) at Todd Creek, Colorado, a suburb of Westminster located about 20 miles northeast of Denver, is considering use of onsite wastewater systems (OWS) to treat and remove domestic wastewater. Local health and environmental agencies have concerns for potential impacts to local water quality. Nitrogen treatment in the vadose zone and subsequent transport to ground water at a development scale is the focus of this investigation. The numerical model HYDRUS 1D was used, with input based on site-specific data and several transport parameters estimated from statistical distribution, to simulate nitrate concentrations reaching ground water. The model predictions were highly sensitive to mass-loading of nitrogen from OWS and the denitrification rate coefficient. The mass loading is relatively certain for the large number of proposed OWS. However, reasonable values for the denitrification rate coefficients vary over three orders of magnitude. Using the median value from a cumulative frequency distribution function, based on rates obtained from the literature, resulted in simulated output nitrate concentrations that were less than 1% of regulatory maximum concentrations. Reasonable rates at the lower end of the reported range, corresponding to lower 95% confidence interval estimates, result in simulated nitrate concentrations reaching groundwater above regulatory limits.     

Preparation and Use of Spatially and Temporally Resolved Emission Inventories in the San Francisco Bay Region

Three regional agencies recently prepared an Air Quality Maintenance Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area oxidant problem. An Eulerian, photochemical model, LIRAQ, provided the technical basis for the plan recommendations. A major LIRAQ input is an emission inventory accurately resolved to one kilometer and one hour increments. The cooperating agencies prepared such inventories, covering 20,000 sq km, for one base and two future years. Several manual and computer-assisted techniques were developed to utilize a variety of independent data bases. Population, land use, employment and transportation data were oganized into a common system of coordinates and units to produce the needed spatial input. Estimates of hourly variation were made by source category based on production rates, fuel use, traffic patterns, flight schedules, and other factors. The result was a series of consistent, detailed inventories which provide a powerful air quality modeling and planning tool. The detail is attained at considerable expense, but the cost is easily justifiable when compared to implementation costs for control strategies.     

Emissions Control and Ambient Air Quality at a Secondary Steel Production Facility

Steel production from electric arc furnaces has been continuously rising over the past few years. The trend is expected to continue due to both the anticipated increase in demand for steel, and to the replacement of obsolete open hearth furnaces. In 1972 steel produced in electric arc furnaces, which makes up 25 to 30% of the annual United States steel production, was produced primarily from recycled scrap steel in approximately 300 electric arc furnaces operated by 99 companies at 121 locations.¹ Over half of these furnaces are smaller than 50 tons, and many are located in small bar mills producing a variety of merchant steel products.     

Net Present Biodiversity Value and the Design of Biodiversity Offsets

There is an urgent need to develop sound theory and practice for biodiversity offsets to provide a better basis for offset multipliers, to improve accounting for time delays in offset repayments, and to develop a common framework for evaluating in-kind and out-of-kind offsets. Here, we apply concepts and measures from systematic conservation planning and financial accounting to provide a basis for determining equity across type (of biodiversity), space, and time. We introduce net present biodiversity value (NPBV) as a theoretical and practical measure for defining the offset required to achieve no-net-loss. For evaluating equity in type and space we use measures of biodiversity value from systematic conservation planning. Time discount rates are used to address risk of non-repayment, and loss of utility. We illustrate these concepts and measures with two examples of biodiversity impact–offset transactions. Considerable further work is required to understand the characteristics of these approaches.     

Modeling studies of ammonia dispersion and dry deposition at some hog farms in North Carolina

A modeling study was conducted on dispersion and dry deposition of ammonia taking one hog farm as a unit. The ammonia emissions used in this study were measured under our OPEN (Odor, Pathogens, and Emissions of Nitrogen) project over a waste lagoon and from hog barns. Meteorological data were also collected at the farm site. The actual layout of barns and lagoons on the farms was used to simulate dry deposition downwind of the farm. Dry deposition velocity, dispersion, and dry deposition of ammonia were studied over different seasons and under different stability conditions using the short-range dispersion/air quality model, AERMOD. Dry deposition velocities were highest under near-neutral conditions and lowest under stable conditions. The highest deposition at short range occurred under nighttime stable conditions and the lowest occurred during daytime unstable conditions. Significant differences in deposition over crop and grass surfaces were observed under stable conditions.     

Contribution of Primary and Secondary Sources to Organic Aerosol and PM2.5 at SEARCH Network Sites

Abstract

Chemical tracer methods for determining contributions to primary organic aerosol (POA) are fairly well established, whereas similar techniques for secondary organic aerosol (SOA), inherently complicated by time-dependent atmospheric processes, are only beginning to be studied. Laboratory chamber experiments provide insights into the precursors of SOA, but field data must be used to test the approaches. This study investigates primary and secondary sources of organic carbon (OC) and determines their mass contribution to particulate matter 2.5 µm or less in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) in Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) network samples. Filter samples were taken during 20 24-hr periods between May and August 2005 at SEARCH sites in Atlanta, GA (JST); Birmingham, AL (BHM); Centerville, AL (CTR); and Pensacola, FL (PNS) and analyzed for organic tracers by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Contribution to primary OC was made using a chemical mass balance method and to secondary OC using a mass fraction method. Aerosol masses were reconstructed from the contributions of POA, SOA, elemental carbon, inorganic ions (sulfate [SO₄ ^2?], nitrate [NO₃ ^?], ammonium [NH₄ ⁺]), metals, and metal oxides and compared with the measured PM_2.5. From the analysis, OC contributions from seven primary sources and four secondary sources were determined. The major primary sources of carbon were from wood combustion, diesel and gasoline exhaust, and meat cooking; major secondary sources were from isoprene and monoterpenes with minor contributions from toluene and β-caryophyllene SOA. Mass concentrations at the four sites were determined using source-specific organic mass (OM)-to-OC ratios and gave values in the range of 12–42 µg m^?3. Reconstructed masses at three of the sites (JST, CTR, PNS) ranged from 87 to 91% of the measured PM_2.5 mass. The reconstructed mass at the BHM site exceeded the measured mass by approximately 25%. The difference between the reconstructed and measured PM_2.5 mass for nonindustrial areas is consistent with not including aerosol liquid water or other sources of organic aerosol.     

The Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS): Its Development and Application at Airports and Airbases

A new complex source microcomputer model has been developed for use at civil airports and Air Force bases. This paper describes both the key features of this model and its application in evaluating the air quality impact of new construction projects at three airports: one in the United States and two in Canada.

The single EDMS model replaces the numerous models previously required to assess the air quality impact of pollution sources at airports. EDMS also employs a commercial data base to reduce the time and manpower required to accurately assess and document the air quality impact of airfield operations.

On July 20, 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the final rule (Federal Register, 7/20/93, page 38816) to add new models to the Guideline on Air Quality Models. At that time EDMS was incorporated into the Guideline as an Appendix A model.     

Regional and local influences on the nature of airborne particulate organic matter at four sites in New Jersey during summer 1981

As part of the New Jersey Project on Airborne Toxic Elements and Organic Substances, daily variations in the concentrations of three fractions of extractable organic matter (EOM) in samples of inhalable particulate matter were investigated at three urban sites and one rural site in New Jersey. During three episodes of elevated concentrations of airborne particulate matter, SO²⁻₄ and O₃, the concentrations of EOM increased by 50–100 % at all sites. Lower ratios of elemental to organic carbon and higher proportions of the acetone-soluble organic fraction of EOM, which contains more polar, oxidized hydrocarbons, were also observed at all sites during these episodes, indicating the formation of secondary particulate organic matter. Local emissions plus Northeast regional background organic aerosol were estimated to contribute about 10μg m⁻³ to the total EOM at the urban sites during these periods. The contribution of secondary organic aerosol to EOM was estimated to be 2 μg m ⁻³ and this seemed to be distributed over the New Jersey region. At the Newark site, an additional 4μg m⁻³ of secondary aerosol appeared to be locally generated.