Down's syndrome screening in multiple pregnancies using alpha-fetoprotein and free beta hCG

Second-trimester distributions of the free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels in 420 twin and 19 triplet pregnancies were measured and compared with the distributions in 6661 singleton pregnancies. On average, the levels of both analytes were twice as high in twins and over three times as high in triplets. Eight sets of twins discordant for Down's syndrome showed elevated levels of free beta hCG and reduced levels of AFP after correction of the multiple of the median for the presence of a twin pregnancy. Screening for Down's syndrome using the twin correction of the multiple of the median is expected to achieve a 51 per cent detection rate at a 5 per cent false-positive rate using these two markers.     

Cytogenetic prenatal diagnosis and its relative effectiveness in the mersey region and North Wales

The relative effectiveness of cytogenetic prenatal diagnosis in the Mersey Region and North Wales is presented by estimating the percentage detection rates of Down's syndrome annually following amniocentesis from 1978–1984 inclusive. Tables indicating the percentage of screened pregnancies, types of chromosomal aberrations detected and the occurrence of Down's syndrome in mothers in age groups of five-year intervals are also presented. The average prenatal detection rate for Down's syndrome (estimated at the time of birth) was 15–15 per cent over the years 1978–1984 and was above 22 per cent for the last two years when 44–13 per cent of all pregnancies to mothers of 35 years and over were investigated.     

Urinary β-core human chorionic gonadotrophin: A new approach to Down's syndrome screening

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) is the most discriminatory maternal serum marker of Down's syndrome. We have carried out a study to establish whether urinary β-core-hCG, a major metabolic product of hCG, might be an even better marker. Urine samples were available from seven singleton pregnancies with Down's syndrome, and one each of Edwards' syndrome, triploidy, and twins discordant for Down's syndrome. β-Core-hCG levels were corrected for creatinine and expressed as multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MOM) level derived from 67 singleton controls. There was a highly statistically significant elevation in level among the singleton Down's syndrome cases (P<0·0005; Wilcoxon rank sum test). All had levels exceeding 2 MOM with a median of 6·11 MOM (95 per cent confidence interval 3·7–10·0). The levels were extremely low in Edwards' syndrome (0·08 MOM) and triploidy (0·02 MOM), but the twin pregnancy discordant for Down's syndrome did not have a raised β-core-hCG level (0·64 MOM). The findings are sufficiently encouraging to investigate the possibility of urinalysis as a routine modality in the prenatal screening for Down's syndrome and other common serious aneuploidies.     

Maternal smoking habits and Down's syndrome

Two series of pregnancies were studied to investigate the relationship between maternal smoking and the risk of fetal Down' s syndrome. In the first series, ascertained in the 1960s, in which smoking habits were determined after the outcome of pregnancy was known, the proportion of smokers (47 per cent) among the 461 women whose pregnancies ended in the birth of an infant with Down' s syndrome was similar to that in the 461 controls (46 per cent) who had pregnancies affected by other congenital disorders. In the second series, ascertained between 1973 and 1984, smoking habits were determined by measurement of cotinine in antenatal serum samples that were routinely collected and stored or, if a serum sample was not available, from information in the antenatal notes. In this series, the proportion of smokers (14 per cent) among the 91 women who had pregnancies associated with Down' s syndrome was lower than that among 413 controls (19 per cent), though this was not statistically significant. Collectively, our results provide no evidence for an association between fetal Down' s syndrome and smoking. Other published studies found a deficit of smokers among women who had pregnancies associated with Down' s syndrome. This may be partly due to some studies not taking adequate account of maternal age (older women are more likely to have had a Down' s syndrome pregnancy but are less likely to be smokers) and partly due to the greater tendency for positive findings to be published than negative ones.     

Economic assessment of maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using human chorionic gonadotropin

The effectiveness and costs of prenatal screening programmes for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers will vary significantly depending on the biological cut-off values chosen in order to select women, at each maternal age, who will be sent for amniocentesis. On the basis of the first French prospective study of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurement in maternal serum, this paper shows that the screening protocol currently used in France, where hCG cut-off values are defined in order to offer amniocentesis to women of all ages with a 1 percent fetal risk of Down's syndrome, would detect 64·06 per cent of all cases of trisomy 21 at birth and would be highly profitable for the French social security system. On the basis of a representative sample of 100 000 pregnant women, the total costs of screening would reach $8 302 000 but would generate net potential savings of $32 186 000 in terms of life-long costs of care for trisomic 21 children which would be ‘avoided’ by termination of pregnancy following a positive diagnosis of Down's syndrome. Economic assessment shows that cost-benefit analysis would justify lower hCG cut-off values and a higher detection rate of fetal Down's syndrome (74·45 per cent) than the current French protocol. This paper concludes that it is ethical and value-laden issues, such as the consequences for women and couples of false positives and false negatives of screening, rather than economic and financial arguments that may set limits to the utilization of screening for Down's syndrome using maternal serum markers like hCG.     

Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase quantification from fetal erythrocytes—an efficient confirmatory test for Down's syndrome after maternal serum screening and sonographic investigations

An enzyme immunoassay especially designed for the quantification of Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD) in erythrocytes has been applied to measure the SOD of outcomes with high risk for Down's syndrome. From 148 fetuses SOD was quantified from erythrocytes of umbilical vein blood and related to the number of cells, the content of haemoglobin (Hb), and to the haematocrit (Hc). Comparative studies between the SOD content of erythrocytes from the fetuses and their mothers resulted in similar SOD levels (14.09 ± 1.20 for fetal and 14.48 ± 1.63 for maternal cells) with a 1.84-fold smaller variance for fetal cells. The best differentiation between normal fetuses and fetuses with Down's syndrome resulted from the SOD/cell ratio followed by the SOD/Hb ratio. Fixing a cut-off value from the probability density functions that the method results in a specificity of 99.99 per cent, the sensitivity to detect cases of Down's syndrome was 99.71 per cent for the SOD/cell ratio, 70.92 per cent for the SOD/Hb ratio, and 60.21 per cent for the SOD/Hc ratio. Nine cases with Down's syndrome were correctly diagnosed by the SOD/cell ratio determination. Eight of these were confirmed as free trisomy 21 by karyotype analysis and one was found to be a triploidy. The latter was not detected by the SOD/Hb and SOD/Hc ratios because of the one-third higher content of haemoglobin and the larger volume of the erythrocytes which resulted in ratios within the normal range.     

Four-marker serum screening for Down's syndrome

The value of measuring the separate sub-units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (free α-hCG and free β-hCG) instead of total hCG together with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was examined to determine the effect on the performance of serum screening for Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The study was based on stored serum samples relating to 75 singleton pregnancies with fetal Down's syndrome and 367 unaffected singleton pregnancies, matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample, supplemented by data from 970 white women with unaffected pregnancies. Using the four serum markers AFP, uE₃, free β-hCG, and free α-hCG, in addition to maternal age, 65 per cent of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a 5 per cent false-positive rate compared with 59 per cent with the conventional triple test (AFP, uE₃, total hCG with maternal age). If gestation was based on an ultrasound scan examination, the detection rate was 72 per cent using the four serum markers compared with 67 per cent with the triple test. As an alternative illustration, if the detection rate was kept at 60 per cent and gestation was estimated by an ultrasound scan examination the four-marker test reduced the false-positive rate by one-third from 3 per cent using the triple test to 2 per cent with the four-marker test. Screening performance was hardly affected by adjusting marker levels for maternal weight. The four-marker test is, both from a medical and from a financial perspective, the most effective method of prenatal screening for Down's syndrome suitable for routine use.     

Elevated alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin as a marker for placental trisomy 16 in the second trimester?

In a series of 2961 consecutive cases with second-trimester biochemical triple screening for Down's syndrome and neural tube defect (NTD), ten (0.3 per cent) showed an apparent increased risk for both conditions. Three cases had chromosomal abnormalities, namely trisomy 16 confined to the placenta. Since placental trisomy 16 as well as cases with increased alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) are associated with (intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), oligohydramnios, and fetal demise, at least some cases with this atypical biochemical profile could be explained by this chromosomal abnormality. From our results we recommend that in cases with increased risk for both Down's syndrome and NTD, fetal karyotyping should preferably be done on a placental biopsy, especially when ultrasound in the absence of anomalies demonstrates early IUGR.     

Attitudes toward abortion for fetal anomaly in the second vs. the third trimester: A survey of Parisian obstetricians

Cross-cultural differences exist in prenatal diagnosis and abortion for fetal anomaly, stemming from variations in laws, reimbursement policies, litigation, physicians' decision-making authority, and attitudes toward the prevention of handicaps. The first part of this paper discusses such differences in France and the U.S. The second part describes a survey of practising obstetricians in Paris, designed to assess (1) their attitudes toward pregnancy termination for various conditions, (2) their concern about fetal viability, (3) their desire for diagnostic certainty before justifying a late abortion, and (4) their perceived role in such decision-making. Among the 64.8 per cent (N = 217) who responded, the majority supported third-trimester termination (TTT) for diseases such as spina bifida, trisomy 21 , microcephaly, and Duchenne muscular dystrophy; 30–59 per cent supported TTT for cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease; and 22–29 per cent supported TTT for haemophilia, tetralogy of Fallot, limb amputation, and Turner and Klinefelter syndromes. Obstetricians who approved of abortion across trimesters were less concerned with the certainty of diagnosis than its severity, more likely to think that abortion ought to be the parents' choice, but more likely to report making a recommendation to the parents about whether to abort a fetus. Such permissive abortion attitudes might imply more permissive prenatal diagnosis and abortion practice among Parisian obstetricians, which might lead to increased migration of patients from other E.C. countries. Cross-cultural variation in obstetric practice suggests that an international registry of pregnancies terminated for medical reasons, enabling further study of this issue, would be valuable.     

Improved performance in a prenatal screening programme for Down's syndrome incorporating serum-free hCG subunit analyses

A prenatal screening programme for Down's syndrome potentially detecting 76 per cent of affected pregnancies in the South Australian general population at an amniocentesis rate of 3.9 per cent was designed following analysis of mid-trimester serum samples from 57 women who carried an affected fetus. This equates to one affected pregnancy being detected for 41 chromosomal analyses performed. For the experimental series, 75.4 per cent of affected pregnancies were detected, while 4.1 per cent of control specimens produced estimated risk odds consistent with further action. A maternal risk odds of birth of a Down's syndrome fetus of 1:420 was taken as the decision value, which is the prevalence of Down's syndrome births to 35-year-old mothers in South Australia. This screening performance was achieved by investigating combinations of serum analytes not previously reported and by refining the calculation of maternal risk odds to include selective weighting of indicator analytes. Combination of the measurements of free α-subunits and β-subunits of chorionic gonadotrophin, α-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and placental lactogen was found to be most effective in indicating Down's syndrome fetuses. In all combinations of analytes tested, replacing the measurements of free α-subunits and free β-subunits of chorionic gonadotrophin with the measurement of intact chorionic gonadotropin produced a less effective screen.     

Expanding multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome to include Edward'S syndrome

Information on maternal age and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels was used to investigate retrospectively the effect of estimating Edward's syndrome risk in women having multi-marker screening for Down's syndrome. The screened population comprised 15 pregnancies affected by Edward's syndrome, 15 with Down's syndrome and 5472 unaffected pregnancies. The use of all three markers to estimate Edward's syndrome risk would have led to the detection of 10–12 (67–80 per cent) cases with a false-positive rate of 0.3–0.6 per cent depending on the risk cut-off. A further case would have been detected as a result of screening for Down's syndrome alone. Similar results were obtained when the Edward's syndrome risk was based on uE₃ and hCG only. These data suggest that extending Down's syndrome screening to include Edward's syndrome risk will yield a high detection rate with only a small increase in the false-positive rate.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.     

The efficacy of maternal age screening for Down's syndrome in Wessex

The uptake of amniocentesis in Wessex for the period 1986–1988 was 36 per cent (2873 of 8004 births), a proportion that has not altered significantly since 1984. There is a large difference in uptake between women in the lower risk age group, 35–36 years, and those in the higher risk group, 37 + years, and very considerable differences in uptake among different districts. The prenatal detection over the 3-year study period for women aged 35 or more, after correction for spontaneous loss of Down's syndrome fetuses between prenatal detection and birth, is 53 per cent, a figure that must be inflated due to our failure to ascertain all liveborn Down's syndrome patients.     

Second-trimester maternal serum immunoreactive inhibin as a marker for fetal Down's syndrome

We measured immunoreactive inhibin in the maternal serum of 80 pregnancies with a chromosomally normal fetus and ten Down's syndrome pregnancies in the second trimester. The inhibin level in all Down's syndrome pregnancies was above the normal median; the multiple of the normal median (MoM) was 1.9. We found a statistically significant difference between the levels of inhibin in unaffected and affected pregnancies (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test: p <0.002). Using an arbitrarily chosen cut-off of 2.4 MoM, 40 per cent of Down's syndrome and 5 per cent of the normal pregnancies were found. We conclude that immunoreactive inhibin may be useful as a marker for fetal Down's syndrome.     

Urinary multiple marker screening for down's syndrome

We have examined the possibility of using multiple markers in maternal urine rather than serum in order to screen for Down's syndrome. Urine samples were available from 36 cases (24 Down's syndrome, five Edwards' syndrome, three Turner's syndrome, one Klinefelter's syndrome, one triploidy, one triple-X, one twin discordant for Down's syndrome) and 294 controls, including three twins. Three markers were tested: the β-core fragment of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), total oestrogen (tE) and the free a subunit of hCG. Levels were corrected for creatinine excretion and expressed as multiples of the gestation-specific median (MOM) level from the singleton controls. The median value for the singleton Down's syndrome cases was 6.02, 0.74, and 1.08 MOM for β-core-hCG, tE, and a-hCG, respectively. The increases in β-core-hCG and the reduction in tE levels were highly significant (P<0.0001 and 0.005, respectively; Wilcoxon rank sum test) but the increase in free a-hCG was not (P=0.40). On the basis of a mathematical model, the expected detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate was 79.6 per cent for β-core-hCG alone, which increased to 82.3 per cent when combined with tE. Aneuploidies other than Down's syndrome were characterized by low levels of tE and either low or high β-core-hCG.     

Birth prevalence of down's syndrome in England and Wales

The natural birth prevalence of Down's syndrome for England and Wales in 1974–1987 (i.e., the birth prevalence in the absence of prenatal diagnosis and the induced abortion of affected pregnancies) was estimated by applying the maternal age-specific birth prevalence derived from epidemiological studies to the number of births in single-year age groups tabulated by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS). On average, the natural birth prevalence was 12.6 per 10 000 births and increased slightly from 12.2 to 13.2 per 10 000 births over the 14-year period. Using data on induced abortions carried out on account of Down's syndrome reported to OPCS under the statutory abortion notification scheme, 14 per cent of affected births were avoided by the induced abortion of affected pregnancies, so that the actual birth prevalence of Down's syndrome was estimated at 10.8 per 10000 births. Using data on Down's syndrome births reported to OPCS under the voluntary congenital malformation notification scheme, the prevalence was 7.2 per 10000 births, so only 67 per cent of the estimated number of affected births were, in fact, notified to the scheme.     

Is selective abortion for a genetic disease an issue for the medical profession? A comparative study of Quebec and France

This article discusses the results of a study of the stand and attitudes of physicians from the Picardie, Nord-Pas-de-Calais region in France and the province of Quebec (Canada) regarding abortion following the diagnosis of a fetal anomaly by ultrasound, amniocentesis, or chorionic villus sampling. The study examined the degree of acceptability of abortion for several specific conditions as well as the physicians' perceptions of their role in the women's decision to abort. The study shows a consensus (over 75 per cent of the physicians surveyed) for aborting a fetus with trisomy 21. There is a similar consensus, except among Francophones in Quebec, for muscular dystrophy, cystic fibrosis, and Huntington disease. Conversely, there is no consensus (below 60 per cent) for several anomalies. In these cases, Quebec Anglophone physicians find abortion more acceptable than Quebec Francophone or French physicians. Concerning the role of the practitioners in the decision to abort, physicians in France tend to be much more directive than their overseas colleagues. Several hypotheses are suggested to explain the difference between the three groups surveyed.     

Prenatal cystic fibrosis carrier screening: Factors in a woman's decision to decline testing

Among 2207 women eligible to be screened for cystic fibrosis (CF) carrier status during pregnancy, 325 (15 per cent) declined to be tested. Of these, 260 (80 per cent) answered a questionnaire soliciting their reasons for not participating. The main factor was opposition to termination of pregnancy, with 43 per cent being against termination for any reason and another 11 per cent against termination of a CF fetus. Other reasons given were partner's disapproval or non-participation (10 per cent), perceived risk of a CF child being low (7 per cent), the error rate of the test (6 per cent), and the generation of unacceptable levels of anxiety (5 per cent). Eleven women (4 per cent) said that they did not wish to be tested during pregnancy, but only six of these would have accepted screening at another time.     

The impact of prenatal diagnosis on the occurrence of chromosome abnormalities

From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future.     

Second-trimester maternal serum screening using alpha-fetoprotein,human chorionic gonadotrophin,and unconjugated oestriol: Experience of a regional programme

Over a 2-year period from January 1991 to December 1992, second-trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using alpha-fetoprotein (aFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) was made available to five health districts in East Anglia, with a total population of 1·2 million. Amniocentesis was offered when the risk of Down's syndrome at term was 1:200 or greater. 25359 singleton pregnancies were screened, representing an uptake of 77 per cent. The recall rate for the 24 per cent of women who had not had a dating scan prior to the test was 9·4 per cent compared with 3·9 per cent for those who had been scanned (P<0·0005). Seventy-five per cent (36/48) of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a false-positive rate of 4·0 per cent. Twenty-five out of 36 of detected Down's syndrome pregnancies were dated by scan prior to sampling, and in the 11 remaining cases, the dates were confirmed by scan after a high-risk result was obtained. The exclusion of uE₃ from the screening protocol would have reduced the detection rate to 52 per cent (25/48) for the same false-positive rate. Eighty-five per cent of women identified at high risk accepted the offer of an amniocentesis. Other fetal abnormalities detected were trisomy 18 (3), trisomy 13 (2), 45,X (6), 69,XXX (5), other chromosome abnormalities (9), open neural tube defects (26), hydrocephalus (7), abdominal wall defects (4), and steroid sulphatase deficiency (6).