环境规划与环境管理

X322(X) 20刀3821世纪源排放与大气C仇体积分数预测/陈跃琴…(北京大学环境科学中心)//环境科学研究/中国环科院一2印2,15(2)一52一55,59 环图X一6 简要介绍了IPCC在20(刃年3月正式公布的21世纪温室气体排放方案,利用一维全球碳循环校式及7种代表性方案对21世纪的大气C仇体积分数进行预测。研究发现:21世纪,大气C仇体积分数增长速率将高于20世纪,化石燃料源仍然是引起大气C仇体积分数增长的主要原因:如果化石燃料仍为胜要能源且它的碳排放量逐年增加,大气的碳吸收比例将不断升高,21世纪末大气COZ体积分数可能超过1仪洲〕x 10“6;只有…     

基于不同排放清单的长三角人为CO2排放模拟

目前基于排放清单估算的区域和城市尺度上的人为CO₂排放不确定性较大.为了我国实现碳达峰和碳中和的目标,亟需对我国的区域尺度,特别是大城市群的人为CO₂排放进行准确估算.分别利用两种先验人为CO₂排放数据(EDGAR v6.0清单和EDGAR v6.0联合GCG v1.0的改进清单)作为输入数据,采用WRF-STILT大气传输模型模拟长三角地区2017年12月至2018年2月大气CO₂摩尔分数,再以安徽全椒高塔观测的大气CO₂摩尔分数作为参考值,通过贝叶斯反演方法得到的比例因子改进了模拟结果,并实现了长三角人为CO₂排放通量的估算.结果表明：(1)在冬季,相对于基于EDGAR v6.0模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数值而言,基于改进清单模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数与观测值更为一致;(2)模拟的大气CO₂摩尔分数在夜间高于观测值,白天则相反,主要因为排放清单的CO₂排放数据不能表征人为...     

温室气体CO2排放浓度及CO2汇的分布研究初探

以1990年全国各地消耗的化石燃料为基础,计算出全国各地CO₂的排放量.用区域尺度大气扩散模型,模拟计算了1990年中国CO₂的浓度分布。结果表明,全国CO₂年增长的平均浓度不超过0.55 mg/m3,为目前全球CO₂平均浓度年增长3.24 mg/m3（IPCC,1992）的1/6。同时还计算了中国的土壤、农作物、森林、草地和河流湖泊1990年吸收CO₂的总量,给出了以省、市为单位的CO₂汇的分布图。结果指出,森林、草地和农作物是CO₂的巨大汇。      

长三角地区大气NO2和CO2浓度的时空变化及驱动因子分析

以长三角城市群为研究对象,利用卫星遥感观测数据协同分析长三角地区大气NO₂和CO₂浓度的时空变化特征和驱动因子,揭示了长三角地区污染物和CO₂高浓度地区空间格局.结果表明长三角城市群地区大气NO₂和CO₂浓度的时空分布及变化特征呈现了受化石燃料燃烧和机动车排放等人为活动以及区域地形、地表覆盖、气候等自然条件的综合影响结果.大气NO₂和CO₂高浓度值围绕太湖明显呈口对西南向的U字形分布,一致于围绕太湖分布的杭州、上海、苏州、无锡、常州和南京等大型城市区域,以及安徽铜陵地区的工业排放区.大气NO₂浓度值呈现秋冬时期较高,夏季最低的季节分布特征.大气CO₂浓度受植被CO₂吸收和CO₂的积累影响,8~9月最低,4~5月最高.此外,随着人为排放活动的急剧减少,2020年1~3月的大气NO₂浓度比2019年同时期降低了50%以上,其中分布了以钢铁厂、燃煤厂为主的大型工业热源的城市NO₂浓度下降最多,如镇江、南京、马鞍山.     

海洋中二氧化碳的循环及其与大气中二氧化碳的关系

本文在调研了大批文献资料的基础上,比较系统全面地介绍了海洋中碳的来源、分布和循环机理,揭示了海洋贮库中碳的行为和迁移转化过程,并着重讨论了海洋表层水中CO₂分压的变化,海洋与大气之间CO₂的交换以及海洋对大气中CO₂的吸收作用,以便使读者对海洋中碳分布、循环和海洋在温室效应中的作用有一个较为清楚的认识。      

碳捕获与储存

碳捕获与储存（CCS）是减轻矿物燃料排放对全球变暖影响的一种手段。这个过程是从大的点源如矿物燃料厂捕获CO₂,然后储存起来使之不能进入大气中。这项技术也是一种从空间"净化"CO₂的地球工程技术,也可以用来以生物的方式捕获和储存CO₂,例如掩埋高温分解的最终产品——生     

上海市居民出行方式与城市交通CO2排放及减排对策

以上海市居民出行方式为研究对象,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)温室气体排放计算指南中关于交通能源消费碳排放量的计算方法,探讨2002—2006年上海市居民出行选择的不同交通方式对CO₂排放的影响和规律,并提供应对策略.结果表明,2002年以来上海市因居民出行导致的交通CO₂排放总量呈显著增长趋势.私家车的CO₂排放量增加速度最快,截至2006年私家车CO₂排放量约相当于出租车、轨道交通和公交车3种公共交通方式之和.公共交通中,出租车的CO₂年排放量和人均CO₂排放量都最大,轨道交通的CO₂年排放量和人均CO₂排放量最小.公交车和出租车的CO₂排放量所占比例减少,轨道交通的CO₂排放量所占比例增加,这种排放结构的变化有利于减少CO₂排放总量.CO₂减排的具体措施包括限制私家车数量,设计合理的道路交通方案,使汽车尽可能接近其经济车速,改变汽车燃料种类等,其中限制私家车数量最为关键.      

一维全球碳循环模式研究

开发了一个陆地生物圈、海洋水圈和大气圈三圈耦合的全球碳循环模式,包括土地利用变化和化石燃料两大人为源的影响,并考虑稳定同位素分馏效应.调试结果表明,该模式能够再现工业革命以来大气CO₂的变化历史,能正确反映海洋内部的碳循环过程和全球碳循环中的同位素分馏效应,结果较为理想.进一步分析发现,传统模式可能低估了海洋的碳吸收能力,高估了CO₂施肥作用对碳循环的影响.      

合肥科学岛低对流层二氧化碳时空分布特征

依据合肥市科学岛2013~2016年的CO₂体积比浓度廓线,分别从夜间、季节和年度分析了亚热带季风气候的CO₂分布特点和合肥科学岛的CO₂源汇特征.（1）大气CO₂体积比浓度随高度增加而减小,390m的CO₂浓度约为15m浓度的95%,夜间随时间推移浓度增加幅度约5%,天亮时CO₂浓度有减小的趋势;（2）测量点高度大于100m时,季节特征较明显,CO₂体积比浓度夏季最低,冬季最高,浓度相差约10×10^-6;（3）测量点高度大于100m时,2013~2016年CO₂体积比浓度的年分布随高度变化的梯度相关系数大于0.9,体积比浓度年增长约2.1648×10^-6.通过三个时间尺度的CO₂体积比浓度廓线分析得出,CO₂浓度特征是动植物活动和大气运动等共同作用的结果;CO₂长期循环过程中,存在近地面CO₂向高空的传输效应.     

西藏地区水电开发的低碳效益评价

论文针对西藏水电开发及外送在我国优化能源资源配置、调整能源结构和控制CO₂排放中的重要地位,综合考虑受电区火力发电的供电煤耗、CO₂排放水平及其动态变化,开展西藏地区水电开发的化石燃料替代、CO₂减排等低碳效益评价。结果表明：1）2006—2012年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应和CO₂减排效应变化具有明显的波动性;2）不同技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应存在明显差异,华中电网技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量最大,西北、西藏电网技术水平下次之,全国电网技术水平下最小;3）不同排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排效应也存在明显差异,西藏电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量最大,西北、华中电网排放水平下次之;4）西藏水电未来开发的化石燃料替代潜力和CO₂减排潜力突出,2030年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量超过2012年西北电网5省区火电燃料消耗总量的75%;与其他排放水平相比,2030年华中电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量相对较小,但仍然超过2013年阿根廷、巴基斯坦、越南等国能源消费的CO₂排放量。因此,西藏水电开发及外送对于我国推动能源结构低碳化、实现2030年应对气候变化国家自主行动目标等具有重要意义。     

临安区域大气本底站CO_2浓度特征及其碳源汇变化研究

通过分析2006年8月～2009年7月临安区域大气本底站Flask瓶采样获得的CO2浓度特征,结合碳追踪模式的模拟结果,研究了长三角地区碳源汇变化对CO2浓度的影响.结果表明,临安区域大气本底站的CO2浓度分布在368.3×10-6～414.8×10-6之间,具有较明显的季节波动变化特征,冬季高、夏季低,浓度年较差接近...     

Quantification of carbon dioxide and methane emissions in urban areas: source apportionment based on atmospheric observations

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the related carbon budget. The main source of anthropogenic CO₂ is burning of fossil fuels, especially in densely populated areas. Similar emissions of CH₄ are associated with the agricultural sector, coal mining, and other human activities, such as waste management and storage and natural gas networks supplying methane to large urban, industrial centers. We discuss several methods aimed at characterizing and quantifying atmospheric loads and fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄ in Krakow, the second largest city in Poland. The methods are based on atmospheric observations of mixing ratios as well as isotopic composition of the investigated gases. Atmospheric mixing ratios of CO₂ and CH₄ were measured using gas chromatography (GC) and cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). The isotopic composition of CO₂ and CH₄ was analyzed using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and CRDS techniques. These data, combined with auxiliary information characterizing the intensity of vertical mixing in the lower atmosphere (height of the nocturnal boundary layer [NBL] and atmospheric ²²²Rn concentration), were further used to quantify emission rates of CO₂ and CH₄ in the urban atmosphere of Krakow. These methods provide an efficient way of quantifying surface emissions of major greenhouse gases originating from distributed sources, thus complementing the widely used bottom-up methodology based on emission statistics.

     

亚热带稻田生态系统CO2通量特征分析

为评价稻田生态系统大气CO2的收支状况,2008-2009年江西省农业气象试验站利用涡度相关技术对稻田生态系统的CO2通量进行了为期一年的连续观测.对观测的数据进行处理和分析表明:在生长季,稻田生态系统CO2通量总体表现为负值,为CO2的汇.稻田生态系统CO2通量具有明显的日变化特征,白天净吸收CO2的量大于夜间呼吸释...     

The carbon budget of California

The carbon budget of a region can be defined as the sum of annual fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) greenhouse gases (GHGs) into and out of the regional surface coverage area. According to the state government's recent inventory, California's carbon budget is presently dominated by 115 MMTCE per year in fossil fuel emissions of CO₂ (>85% of total annual GHG emissions) to meet energy and transportation requirements. Other notable (non-ecosystem) sources of carbon GHG emissions in 2004 were from cement- and lime-making industries (7%), livestock-based agriculture (5%), and waste treatment activities (2%). The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover (including those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) was used to estimate net ecosystem fluxes and vegetation biomass production over the period 1990–2004. California's annual NPP for all ecosystems in the early 2000s (estimated by CASA at 120 MMTCE per year) was roughly equivalent to its annual fossil fuel emission rates for carbon. However, since natural ecosystems can accumulate only a small fraction of this annual NPP total in long-term storage pools, the net ecosystem sink flux for atmospheric carbon across the state was estimated at a maximum rate of about 24 MMTCE per year under favorable precipitation conditions. Under less favorable precipitation conditions, such as those experienced during the early 1990s, ecosystems statewide were estimated to have lost nearly 15 MMTCE per year to the atmosphere. Considering the large amounts of carbon estimated by CASA to be stored in forests, shrublands, and rangelands across the state, the importance of protection of the natural NPP capacity of California ecosystems cannot be overemphasized.     

Making carbon sequestration a paying proposition

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) has increased from a preindustrial concentration of about 280 ppm to about 367 ppm at present. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO₂ emissions from the use of fossil fuels. Global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the major environmental challenge for the 21st century. Reducing worldwide emissions of CO₂ requires multiple mitigation pathways, including reductions in energy consumption, more efficient use of available energy, the application of renewable energy sources, and sequestration. Sequestration is a major tool for managing carbon emissions. In a majority of cases CO₂ is viewed as waste to be disposed; however, with advanced technology, carbon sequestration can become a value-added proposition. There are a number of potential opportunities that render sequestration economically viable. In this study, we review these most economically promising opportunities and pathways of carbon sequestration, including reforestation, best agricultural production, housing and furniture, enhanced oil recovery, coalbed methane (CBM), and CO₂ hydrates. Many of these terrestrial and geological sequestration opportunities are expected to provide a direct economic benefit over that obtained by merely reducing the atmospheric CO₂ loading. Sequestration opportunities in 11 states of the Southeast and South Central United States are discussed. Among the most promising methods for the region include reforestation and CBM. The annual forest carbon sink in this region is estimated to be 76 Tg C/year, which would amount to an expenditure of $11.1–13.9 billion/year. Best management practices could enhance carbon sequestration by 53.9 Tg C/year, accounting for 9.3% of current total annual regional greenhouse gas emission in the next 20 years. Annual carbon storage in housing, furniture, and other wood products in 1998 was estimated to be 13.9 Tg C in the region. Other sequestration options, including the direct injection of CO₂ in deep saline aquifers, mineralization, and biomineralization, are not expected to lead to direct economic gain. More detailed studies are needed for assessing the ultimate changes to the environment and the associated indirect cost savings for carbon sequestration.     

大气14CO2的时空分异特征及其在化石源CO2示踪中的应用

大气CO₂中放射性碳同位素(¹⁴C)的水平可以反映化石源CO₂的影响程度,这对于评估我国目前化石源CO₂的排放状况和制定节能减排政策具有重要的指导意义。本文在概述大气¹⁴CO₂采样和分析方法的基础上,简要介绍了大气¹⁴CO₂观测的起源和主要的源汇过程,重点论述了大气¹⁴CO₂的时空分异特征及其驱动因素;阐述了化石源CO₂浓度的估算方法及¹⁴CO₂在国内外化石源CO₂示踪中的应用现状,并对大气¹⁴CO₂观测在我国化石源CO₂示踪中的应用前景进行了展望;旨在为我国正确地开展大气¹⁴CO₂的观测研究,深刻地理解特定区域大气¹⁴CO₂的时空分异特征和化石源CO₂的分布状况提供参考。     

碳同位素比技术定量估算城市大气CO2的来源

要有效地减少城市碳排放和正确地判断城市现有减排措施的有效性就必须准确地确定城市大气CO2的来源.由于碳同位素比从污染源到受体的传输过程中同位素分馏现象不明显,本研究建立了一套基于碳同位素比技术定量估算城市大气CO2来源的方法,并用该方法初步定量分析了上海市嘉定区大气CO2中来自燃煤、机动车尾气和生物质贡献的时空分布.上海市嘉定区大气CO2的上述3种来源中,生物质的贡献最大.燃煤的贡献在夜间(00:00、04:00和20:00)多于白天(08:00、12:00和16:00),且随高度的升高而增大;机动车尾气的贡献则随高度的升高而降低.大气CO2浓度时空分布特征体现了上海市郊嘉定区大气CO2的排放特征和各来源的传输特性.     

Contribution of industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations: — impact of the Kyoto protocol

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol made under the Convention, aim at controlling the greenhouse gas emissions and their concentrations in the atmosphere. The contributions of fossil fuel use in industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO₂ concentration are calculated using estimates for emission developments and a simple carbon cycle model. The contribution of the industrial countries to the CO₂ concentration increase, above the preindustrial level, is estimated to be about 50 ppm in 1990 if only the emissions from fossil fuels are considered. The contribution from developing countries is about 15 ppm. The contribution from industrial countries would increase by about 20 ppm between 1990 and 2010 if no emission reductions were assumed and by about 15 ppm in the considered rather strict reduction scenario. According to the Kyoto protocol the emissions from industrial countries should be reduced by 5.2% from the 1990 level in about 20 years. This development of the emissions would cause a concentration increase of 18 ppm. The concentration increase due to developing countries between 1990 and 2010 would be about 15 ppm. In order that the present global increase rate of CO₂ concentration 1.5 ppm/a would not be exceeded, steeper reductions than those made in Kyoto should be agreed. Increasing global emissions and slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere makes it difficult to reach the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention, the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO ₂ -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO₂-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO₂ concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO₂-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO₂ levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO₂ concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO₂-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO₂-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO₂ emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.     

钢铁行业生命周期碳排放核算及减排潜力评估

钢铁行业是中国碳密集度最高的工业行业之一,为分析钢铁行业生命周期碳排放及碳减排潜力,从生命周期角度构建碳排放核算模型,以2020年为例开展实证分析,通过优化废钢使用量、化石燃料燃烧量、电力碳足迹因子以及清洁运输比例4项变量,对钢铁行业生命周期碳减排潜力作预测评估,同时使用敏感性分析确定影响钢铁生命周期碳减排因素的关键程度.结果表明,2020年中国钢铁行业全生命周期二氧化碳(CO₂)排放总量约24.04亿t,其中原料获取和加工生产阶段是钢铁行业碳排放的关键环节,占钢铁行业生命周期CO₂排放总量的98%以上.从CO₂排放源类别分析,化石燃料节约和外购电力清洁化是钢铁行业降碳的重中之重.到2025年,通过推广低碳技术、优化电力结构、增加废钢炼钢量、提高清洁方式运输比例,分别可使钢铁行业实现20%、 6%、 5%和1%的碳减排潜力.化石燃料燃烧量对钢铁行业生命周期CO₂排放的影响最显著,电力碳足迹因子和废钢炼钢使用量次之.关于钢铁行业节能低碳技术,短期内以推广轧钢工序与高炉炼铁工序低碳技术为主,未来随着电炉...