中国粮食支持政策该向何处去?--来自商品储备模型量化政策评估的证据

粮食安全是社会稳定、经济发展和国家安全的重要基础,粮食支持政策是粮食安全国家战略的核心抓手。过去以托市收储为主要特征的粮食支持政策曾经有效提高了农民种粮积极性和粮食供应能力,但国内市场矛盾累积和多边贸易争端加剧将托市收储推到改革关口。在改革窗口期,跳出国内研究以经验判断、逻辑推演的传统,采用国际农业政策分析中普遍使用的量化评估方法,精确考察和预测粮食支持手段的政策效应,具有迫切必要性、理论和现实意义。基于此,借鉴Wright&William经典商品储备模型(Commodity Storage Model)分析框架,构建一个考虑社会福利动态最优的小麦市场模型,对调低托市价格/取消托市、实行生产者补贴、“托市+生产者补贴”双层政策和补贴私人储备四种改革措施进行了数值优化和模拟分析,从市场稳定、农民保护、粮食安全、财政成本和黄箱限制五维评价指标,详细刻画不同改革措施的改革效果和政策空间后发现:①取消托市、降低托市价格和补贴生产者均会不同程度冲击市场稳定、农民收益和粮食安全。②“托市+生产者补贴”能够以黄箱限制内的成本达到可观的增产增收效果,私人储备补贴高效率与低效果并存。③托市政策具有优良的稳市效果,双层政策则在产量、收入支撑上效果突出。这意味着不应贸然取消托市,改革取向也不应囿于非此即彼式的政策抉择,而应建立多层次粮食支持体系,收缩托市范围并将其后置,增加生产者补贴力度,适度引入私人民间收储以强化效果、降低成本、培育市场,从而在粮食安全保障能力不削弱的前提下,进一步释放市场活力、降低多边贸易争端风险。     

Scientific Basis and Technological Path of Regional Strategic Environmental Assessment

Abstract

The study tries to set up a system to extract strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in exploitation of regional development based on the present situation of environmental assessment in China. First, the article summarizes the emphasis and deficiency of international academic community’s SEA research in the past 10 years. Based on this, the article puts forward the concept and evaluation principles of regional strategic environmental assessment (RSEA). Then the article expounds the necessity of carrying out RSEA. After that, the article discusses in detail the process of RSEA, which includes defining evaluation scope, describing regional background, combing strategic behavior, designing development scenarios, predicting the pressure on environment, assessing environmental impact, screening alternatives and proposing regulation and control schemes.     

都市农业发展的功能定位体系研究

中国城市化进程加速迫切需要人们重新认识农业发展的特点与作用。20世纪80年兴起的都市农业变传统农业单一生产模式向多功能化发展。它有助于在城市社会来临之际,重新对农业进行定位,为城乡协调发展提供途径。鉴于我国都市农业发展急需理论指导,本文从都市农业相关的学科背景出发,详细评述和总结了各学科对都市农业价值功能的认识,提出了要从社会、经济、环境和空间的综合系统对都市农业发展进行定位。并建议应遵循整体功能的阶段性和适宜的发展形式,推动我国都市农业的发展。要注意发挥和协调各功能间的相互作用与演进,将都市农业纳入到城乡统筹规划之中。     

Effectiveness of EMS in Tunisian companies: framework and implementation process based on ISO 14001 standard

This paper reports environmental analysis results of food and tannery Tunisian companies to identify the features of environmental management system (EMS) that is implemented recently. EMS via ISO 14001 has become one of the principal tools used by companies to handle environmental aspects and impacts through their various complex activities interacted with environment. While several companies have implemented and maintained a formal EMS, it has related mainly to their benefits in short term without responding to the sustainable development recommendations and practices. This study focuses on the strong linkage between the EMS effectiveness of food–tannery Tunisian companies and sustainability. A proactive environmental management approach is proposed and adopts a qualitative and quantitative assessment for factor analysis. It provides a strategic EMS framework and principles for sustainability to evolve the future enterprises’ benefits that has a clear influence on environmental performance in long term.     

城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究

城市是社会、经济与环境相互作用最为集中与深刻的区域，随着城市环境问题的日益严重，城市可持续发展成为共同关注的焦点。自然资本在可持续发展体系中起到关键的作用，因此，识别城市系统的关键自然资本是实现城市可持续发展的前提。通过分析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能，结果表明绿色空间是影响城市可持续发展的重要的自然资本。在此基础上，提出了通过保护与投资于绿色空间两种途径实现城市可持续发展的措施与建议。     

Evolutionary social and biogeophysical changes in the Amazon,Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, provision of goods, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. Here, we show how the analysis of available time-series in tropical delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics in deltaic regions. The paper provides an exploratory analysis of the recent changes that have occurred in the major elements of three tropical deltaic social-ecological systems, such as demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes, and Earth observation data are analysed to explore possible trends, slow and fast variables, and observed drivers of change in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services, such as water availability, water quality, and land stability appear to be deteriorating. In the Amazon delta, natural and anthropogenic perturbations are continuously degrading key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage in biomass and soils, the regulation of water balance, and the modulation of regional climate patterns. In the Mekong delta, rapid economic development, changing land-use practices, and salinity intrusion are progressively putting more pressure on the delivery of important provisioning services, such as rice and inland aquaculture production, which are key sources of staple food, farm incomes, and export revenue. Observed changes in many key indicators of ecosystem services point to a changing dynamic state and increased probability of systemic threshold transformations in the near future.     

Revealing major terrestrial- and marine species-based provisioning ecosystem services provided by the socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes of Lefke Region in North Cyprus

The aim of this study was to identify and evaluate major terrestrial- and marine species-based provisioning ecosystem services (PESs) provided by the socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) of Lefke Region located in North Cyprus. The objectives of the study include: (1) identifying major terrestrial-based PESs collected from the SEPLS (e.g. wild plants) and (2) recording major marine-based PESs caught (e.g. fish species), and (3) proposing several policy responses based on the results of (1) and (2) and on a review of the literature and current policies. The method of the study consists of two parts. Primarily, a conceptual framework for understanding the linkages among the SEPLS, PESs and landscape planning in Lefke Region was developed. Secondly, a participatory research approach was implemented to identify major PESs gathered from the SEPLS in the region. A range of data collection tools (e.g. a questionnaire and semi-structured interviews) were used to collect data on the research questions in 12 villages from December 2015 to March 2016. The precise data on the PESs were obtained from 106 participants that responded to the questionnaire. Assessment of the questionnaire showed that the local people collect various terrestrial (49 plant and 5 mushroom species)- and marine (30 fish species)-based PESs from the SEPLS for a variety of purposes (e.g. private own use, income generation and nature experience). Finally, potential policy responses for better conservation and sustainable management of the PESs and the SEPLS (e.g. development of a national landscape planning strategy for North Cyprus and integration of the concept of ecosystem services) of the region were examined. It is expected that the results of this study can draw attention of policy-makers, planners and natural resource managers to better understand the feedbacks between SEPLS and associated ecosystem services in terms of biodiversity conservation, food production and sustainable livelihood development in Lefke Region and elsewhere.     

Multi-stage evolution of social response to flood/drought in the North China Plain during 1644–1911

How the past human society responded to climatic disasters could provide better understanding on the nature of climate–human–ecosystem interactions and the knowledge of the vulnerability for the society in the context of changing climate. In this paper, the North China Plain in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) is selected as a typical regional social-ecological system; with historical information kept in official documents, social responsive behavior and measures to flood/drought (e.g., reclamation, disaster relief, migration, revolt) are quantitatively described with proxy indicator time-series. It is found that the dominant responsive strategy altered significantly in different stages: (1) stage of cropland expansion (1644–1720); (2) stage of governmental disaster relief (1721–1780); (3) stage of increasing climate refugees (1781–1860); (4) stage of revolt and emigration (1861–1911). The multi-stage evolution of social response was impacted by various natural and social factors: (1) regional population–food balance and governmental finance were the most important limiting factors; (2) the interaction between the governmental policy and refugees’ behavior in disasters affected the social consequences to a certain extent; (3) decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change would also impact the social response measures, even directly trigger the shift of dominant responsive strategy. This study would be helpful for deeper understanding of social resilience and better responding to climate change and extreme events in the present and future.     

The use of green criteria in the public procurement of food products and catering services: a review of EU schemes

Green Public Procurement (GPP) is currently being used to influence the market to shift to a supply of goods and services to the public sector that have a reduced environmental impact. The food service sector plays a major role in the purchases made by the public sector and due to that relevance deserves attention. The GPP schemes reviewed were those that provide details of the specific environmental criteria used (or recommended) for public tendering of food products and catering services provision. The set of GPP schemes apply to distinct geographical zones within the EU, including national level (e.g. Italy), regional level (e.g. Barcelona) and also local level, as in the case of cities (e.g. Copenhagen) or schools (e.g. a school in Pisa, Italy). The criteria set covers services provision to schools, health and social care, higher education, government office canteens, sports and leisure arenas, prisons and defence services (e.g. army). European and worldwide GPP criteria were not covered by the review made. This exploratory study comprehends a total of 23 GPP schemes. This sample includes eight national schemes, three regional schemes and ten local schemes. The review focused on the scope, for the sector of applicability (e.g. education, healthcare) of the GPP set of criteria and for the type of food products covered. Moreover, this paper analyses the type of GPP criteria in use and how the environmental criteria cover the distinct life cycle stages of the whole food supply chain. Findings from the analysis show that for the majority of schemes the scope of criteria is simultaneously the provision of food products and catering services. Moreover, cities, municipalities and counties are the main public authorities reporting procurement activities for the education sector while national GPP activities are applicable for multiple sectors of activity. The main food products covered by the criteria are fruits and vegetables, dairy products, fish and seafood and meat. Finally, the findings show that the set of criteria from the schemes cover widely the life cycle stages of the food supply chain. The results allowed for a first identification of current practices in the use of GPP criteria within public purchasing of food products and catering services in Europe by national, regional or local governments.     

Can current management maintain forest landscape multifunctionality in the Eastern Alps in Austria under climate change?

In Central Europe, management of forests for multiple ecosystem services (ES) has a long tradition and is currently drawing much attention due to increasing interest in non-timber services. In face of a changing climate and diverse ES portfolios, a key issue for forest managers is to assess vulnerability of ES provisioning. In a case study catchment of 250 ha in the Eastern Alps, the currently practiced uneven-aged management regime (BAU; business as usual) which is based on irregularly shaped patch cuts along skyline corridors was analysed under historic climate (represented by the period 1961–1990) and five transient climate change scenarios (period 2010–2110) and compared to an unmanaged scenario (NOM). The study addressed (1) the future provisioning of timber, carbon sequestration, protection against gravitational hazards, and nature conservation values under BAU management, (2) the effect of spatial scale (1, 5, 10 ha grain size) in mapping ES indicators and (3) how the spatial scale of ES assessment affects the simultaneous provision of several ES (i.e. multifunctionality). The analysis employed the PICUS forest simulation model in combination with novel landscape assessment tools. In BAU management, timber harvests were smaller than periodic increments. The resulting increase in standing stock benefitted carbon sequestration. In four out of five climate change scenarios, volume increment was increasing. With the exception of the mildest climate change scenario (+2.6 °C, no change in precipitation), all other analysed climate change scenarios reduced standing tree volume, carbon pools and number of large old trees, and increased standing deadwood volume due to an intensifying bark beetle disturbance regime. However, increases in deadwood and patchy canopy openings benefitted bird habitat quality. Under historic climate, the NOM regime showed better performance in all non-timber ES. Under climate change conditions, the damages from bark beetle disturbances increased more in NOM compared with BAU. Despite favourable temperature conditions in climate change scenarios, the share of admixed broadleaved species was not increasing in BAU management, mainly due to the heavy browsing pressure by ungulates. In NOM, it even decreased and mean tree age increased. Thus, in the long run NOM may enter a phase of lower resilience compared with BAU. Most ES indicators were fairly insensitive to the spatial scale of indicator mapping. ES indicators that were based on sparse tree and stand attributes such as rare admixed tree species, large snags and live trees achieved better results when mapped at larger scales. The share of landscape area with simultaneous provisioning of ES at reasonable performance levels (i.e. multifunctionality) decreased with increasing number of considered ES, while it increased with increasing spatial scale of the assessment. In the case study, landscape between 53 and 100 % was classified as multifunctional, depending on number and combinations of ES.     

Substantial decline of polychlorinated biphenyls serum levels 10 years after public health interventions in a population living near a contaminated site in Northern Italy

IntroductionPolychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent pollutants classified among endocrine disruptors and human carcinogens. In an urban area in Northern Italy (Brescia), a chemical factory producing PCBs from 1938 to 1984 caused soil and food pollution. Since the discovering of the environmental pollution in the area in 2001, various public health interventions have been implemented to avoid human contamination.MethodsTwo independent surveys were carried out in 2003 and 2013 using the same study design and methods. A random sample of the adult general population living in four areas of the town with different soil contamination level was enrolled in both surveys. Investigation included serum levels of 24 PCB congeners and of other common clinical-chemical parameters and questions about residential and occupational history as well as current and past diet and consumption of locally produced food. 537 subjects were tested in the 2003 and 488 in the 2013 survey.ResultsTotal PCB serum levels showed a strong correlation with age (Spearman r = 0.71 in 2003 and r = 0.80 in 2013), but not with gender. Consumers of food produced in the most polluted area had higher total PCB serum levels (median 15.6 and 4.7 ng/ml in 2003 and 2013, respectively) than non-consumers (4.1 and 2.3 ng/ml) and consumers of food produced in non-polluted areas (6.5 and 1.9 ng/ml), with increasing trend of PCB serum levels with cumulative local food intake. PCB serum levels from 2003 to 2013 survey declined by around half in all age groups, especially among the youngest people. The total PCB reduction was found to be due to a combination of a birth cohort effect (− 41% every 10 years) and survey period effect (− 18% in 2013 versus 2003), with medium chlorinated CB congeners showing the most relevant reduction (− 30%) between the two surveys. High chlorinated CBs were more strongly associated with birth cohort (− 46% every 10 years): in the 2013 survey they represented 58% of total PCBs in 60–79 years old while they were 37% among the under 40s with a median value 20 times higher in the oldest than in the youngest (3.1 versus 0.16 ng/ml).ConclusionsPCBs serum levels declined from the 2003 to 2013 survey though they are still high in the elderly mainly because of past intake of locally produced contaminated food. Present findings suggest that PCBs food chain contamination and human absorption have been interrupted successfully in the area since discovery of the pollution in 2001.     

Exploring socio-cultural values of ecosystem service categories in the Central Alps: the influence of socio-demographic factors and landscape type

The socio-cultural assessment of ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for eliciting people’s preferences towards ecosystem services. Despite an increasing integration of the socio-cultural perspective in ecosystem service research, little knowledge exists about linkages between landscape and the socio-cultural values people assign to ecosystem services. This paper combines a socio-cultural valuation approach with the use of landscape pictures to analyse and compare people’s perceived importance of the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem service categories across three landscape types (i.e. larch meadows, spruce forests, and hay meadow). A survey with 470 tourists visiting the region of South Tyrol (Italy) was conducted to link people’s perceived importance to their socio-demographic background and to the landscape types explored. The results show that regulating ecosystem services are preferred over provisioning and cultural services, whereby environmental awareness is found to be more influential than formal education levels regarding the perceived importance of regulating services. The results further demonstrate that cultural background is an important driver in determining people’s perceived importance of cultural services. The underlying landscape types, however, exert an even stronger influence on people’s socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem service categories. This finding suggests that the focus of most ecosystem services assessments on the study area as a whole risks mistakenly attributing differences in people’s socio-cultural values to socio-demographic characteristics only. A better knowledge of the spatial integration of socio-cultural values, however, could help with anticipating the consequences of changes in the landscape and provide better guidance for future landscape planning.     

Beyond the Choir? The Need to Understand Multiple Publics for Science

ABSTRACT

Understanding different publics for science communication is more important than ever before. The articles in this special issue lay important groundwork for our field to develop a better understanding of how audience segments differ or overlap across issues, cultural contexts, stages of the issue cycle, and different analytic and methodological approaches. The long-term goal of this work should be to enable more effective communication with publics whose demographic, socio-structural, or value-based characteristics position them squarely outside of the proverbial choir that science communication is often preaching to.     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

Abstract

Based on the current literature, this paper is mainly intended to test whether environmental factors and socio-economic factors will have direct effect on the longevity at county level in China in order to determine the major determinants affecting local longevity level. Using the multi-regression model, we find the result that factors such as temperature, climate, longitude, type of soils, as well as type of agricultural food production play a major role in shaping the longevity at county level, and that socioeconomic factors like infant mortality and gross death rate also have some direct impact on longevity, but the degree of impact is not as strong as the above environmental factors.     

Emergy Evaluation of a Village Ecosystem in Wolong Nature Reserve in China

Abstract

Due to historic reasons, there are several human settlements in nature reserves and national parks, which may constitute a threat to biodiversity. Establishment of nature reserves may however generate constraints for development of local communities residing in these reserves. The village ecosystem of Zhuanjinglou Village in Wolong Nature Reserve includes population, farming and livestock (domestic and alpine) and forest ecosystem. An emergy analysis of agro-ecosystem (including the farming and livestock ecosystem) and energy consumption in Zhuanjinglou Village indicates that livestock ecosystem plays an important role in village ecosystem, which may be the source of great pressure on the state of the local environment. The increasing ratio of electricity in energy consumption may play a positive role for environmental conservation. Despite some successful experiences, there are some remaining issues that need to be addressed in the ecological rehabilitation of the village ecosystem.     

Could exposure to phthalates speed up or delay pubertal onset and development? A 1.5-year follow-up of a school-based population

PurposePhthalates may interfere with the timing of pubertal development in adolescence and existing studies have shown inconsistent results. This study aims to assess the associations of pubertal onset and progression with urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites in school-aged boys and girls.MethodsUsing isotope-dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, we analyzed 6 phthalate metabolites in urine samples of 430 children (222 boys and 208 girls) aged 9.7 ± 2.2 years (age range 6.1 to 13.8 years) at baseline and 18 months of follow-up. The associations of exposures to phthalates with pubertal development such as the testis, breast and pubic hair were evaluated using ordered logistic regression models, adjusting for baseline development stage, current chronological age, current body fat composition, and parental education.ResultsUrinary mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP) was associated with a 39% increase in the odds of presenting lower pubic hair development stages in boys, and mono (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) (p < 0.10), mono (2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (MEHHP) and mono (2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (MEOHP) were associated with 54%–65% increase in the odds of presenting higher breast development stages in girls (p < 0.05), while MEHHP and MEOHP were also associated with a 70% increase in the odds of menarche onset (p < 0.05). After adjusting for potential confounding variables, the associations of girls' pubertal onset with MnBP, MMP, MEP and MEHP were significant. The odds of girls' breast onset were 4 to 10 times higher in high MnBP, MMP, MEP or MEHP exposure group than in low exposure group.ConclusionsOur findings suggest subtle effects of phthalate metabolites associated with pubertal onset and progression. MnBP exposure may be associated with delayed pubic hair development in boys, while MnBP, MMP, MEP, and MEHP exposures may be associated with breast onset, and MEHP metabolites associated with speedup in breast development progression and earlier menarche onset in girls.     

基于ecopath模型对滆湖生态系统结构与功能的定量分析

根据2010年对江苏滆湖渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,采用Ecopath with Ecosim软件构建了滆湖生态系统的物质平衡ecopath模型,以期为在滆湖进行生态修复提供支持和指导。ecopath分析结果表明：2010年滆湖生态系统包含7个营养级,各功能组的有效营养级范围为1~3691,其营养物质流动主要发生在前4个营养级,占总流量的998%。系统总生产量为1 974.82 t/km2〖DK〗·a,总流量为8 562.544 t/km2〖DK〗·a,联结指数、系统杂食系数、Finn’s循环指数以及Finn’s平均路径长度分别为0219、0189、799和2841;生产量/呼吸量、生产量/生物量分别为2189和3509;平均捕捞营养级为256。食物链以开始于藻类的牧食食物链和开始于碎屑的碎屑食物链为主,系统总能量转换效率为64%。与滆湖1986～1989年的ecopath模型相比较,滆湖生态系统的总流量减小,r 对策者在系统中所占比例增加,K 对策者在系统中所占比例减小,根据Odum对成熟生态系统的描述,滆湖目前正处于退化演变过程中     

Historical evolution of human anthrax from occupational disease to potentially global threat as bioweapon

PurposeAnthrax is caused by Bacillus anthracis, which can naturally infect livestock, wildlife and occupationally exposed humans. However, for its resistance due to spore formation, ease of dissemination, persistence in the environment and high virulence, B. anthracis has been considered the most serious bioterrorism agent for a long time. During the last century anthrax evolved from limited natural disease to potentially global threat if used as bioweapon. Several factors may mitigate the consequences of an anthrax attack, including 1. the capability to promptly recognize and manage the illness and its public health consequences; 2. the limitation of secondary contamination risk through an appropriate decontamination; and 3. the evolution of genotyping methods (for microbes characterization at high resolution level) that can influence the course and/or focus of investigations, impacting the response of the government to an attack.MethodsA PubMed search has been done using the key words “bioterrorism anthrax”.ResultsOver one thousand papers have been screened and the most significant examined to present a comprehensive literature review in order to discuss the current knowledge and strategies in preparedness for a possible deliberate release of B. anthracis spores and to indicate the most current and complete documents in which to deepen.ConclusionsThe comprehensive analysis of the two most relevant unnatural anthrax release events, Sverdlovsk in the former Soviet Union (1979) and the contaminated letters in the USA (2001), shows that inhalational anthrax may easily and cheaply be spread resulting in serious consequences. The damage caused by an anthrax attack can be limited if public health organization, first responders, researchers and investigators will be able to promptly manage anthrax cases and use new technologies for decontamination methods and in forensic microbiology.     

Measurement of Fruit and Vegetable Losses in Brazil: A Case Study

This research conducted on municipal solid waste management for the first time quantified food spoilage as being 8.8% weight of all officially collected household garbage in the Brazilian city under study. The unexpected size of this waste fraction gave rise to work on the causes of waste and on its distribution over the product life cycle specific to fruit and vegetables. Waste was defined as being the combination of losses and scraps. Administrative shortcomings were identified as basic reasons for waste. At the producer and consumer ends of the cycle, negligence was shown to be the single most important problem. Fruit and vegetables deteriorate during the operations of handling, transport, packaging, storage, selling and consumption. The study detailed the occurrence of waste at all of these stages. In the medium-size Brazilian city, the total waste of fruit and vegetables was shown to amount to 16.6% weight in the marketing stage of the life cycle. At the consumer level, it was measured as 3.4% weight of all household garbage. Specific reasons for this waste were identified at the levels of producer, wholesaler and retailer. Short-term remedies were pointed out that invariably corrected deficient management procedures. It was shown that very simple administrative measures can significantly reduce the spoilage of fruit and vegetables. Long-term strategies involve the creation of sample cases for administration of the fruit and vegetables life cycle at all stages.     

Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.