More asymmetric tree competition brings about more evapotranspiration and less runoff from the forest ecosystems: A simulation study

The present paper reports how stand size-structure dynamics due to competition between different-sized trees affect long-term forested water balance in Japanese cool-temperate planted stands (evergreen coniferous Cryptomeria japonica and deciduous coniferous Larix kaempferi stands) using a fully coupled multi-layered meteorological surface physics—terrestrial ecosystems model. The simulation captured the well-known annual variation in leaf area index (LAI) accurately with stand age in monocultured and even-aged stands; the occurrence of maximum LAI during the early growth stage and then a gradual decline followed by a steady state after the maximum LAI. The simulations also detected a high dependency of annual evapotranspiration (AETr) on LAI with stand age that is well known by prior observational researches. In the C. japonica (shade-tolerant late-successional species) stand, the relationship between annual net primary productivity of an individual tree (NPP_ind) and individual tree mass (w) changed from linear to a convex curve during self-thinning, indicating that the degree of asymmetric tree competition intensified with forest stand development. The higher degree of competitive asymmetry characterized by the convex-shaped NPPind-w relationship produced greater size inequality, i.e., the formation of trees stratified by height. Under such conditions, AETr and annual transpiration (ATr) were mainly regulated by larger trees. On the other hand, the NPPind-w relationships in the L. kaempferi (shade-intolerant early-successional species) stand were linear throughout the simulated period, indicating the lower degree of competitive asymmetry. Under such conditions, the growth of intermediate-sized trees was enhanced and these trees became a dominant source of AETr (and also ATr) during self-thinning. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the effects of ecophysiological parameters such as foliage profile (i.e., vertical distribution of leaf area density) of an individual tree (distribution pattern is described by the parameter η), the maximum carboxylation velocity (V_cmax0) and biomass allocation pattern of individual plant growth (μ₁) on AETr, ATr and annual runoff (AR_off) showed that the temporal trends of AETr, ATr, AR_off and NPPind-w relationships were completely the same as those in the control simulations. However, the NPPind-w relationship during self-thinning indicated higher degrees of competitive asymmetry when η or V_cmax0 were greater than those in the control simulation and generated greater AETr and ATr and thus smaller AR_off. We found that more asymmetric tree competition brings about greater size inequality between different-sized trees and thus more evapotranspiration and less runoff in a forest stand. Overall, our simulation approach revealed that not only LAI dynamics but also plant competition, and thus size-structure dynamics, in a forest ecosystem are essential to long-term future projections of forested water balance.     

Pup production,sex ratios,and survivorship in African wild dogs, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lycaon pictus</Emphasis>

The local resource enhancement (LRE) model predicts that in cooperatively breeding species, sex ratios will be biased in favor of the more helpful sex. In this study, we assess the assumptions underlying the LRE model in a population of cooperatively breeding wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Northern Botswana monitored over a 15-year period. In this population, litter size and pup survival to 1 year are strongly affected by pack size and the breeding female’s age, but adult males have a stronger and more linear effect on females’ reproductive performance than do adult females. This asymmetry in the benefits derived from male and female helpers is reflected in male-biased sex ratios in litters at the time pups emerge from the den. Sex ratio biases are most pronounced in the litters of the youngest mothers who live in significantly smaller packs than older females. The presence of potential rivals for the dominant female’s position depresses pup production at the time of emergence, suggesting that competition among females for breeding positions may also contribute to the selective forces affecting birth sex ratios.     

Diameter growth models for mixed-species stands of Coastal British Columbia including thinning and fertilization effects

In this study, diameter growth models for three species growing in mixed-stands of Coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada, under a variety of silvicultural treatments were developed. The three species were: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn). A Box and Lucas model (1959) was initially fitted to the diameter growth series for each tree, as this model is very flexible and was based on processes reflective of the metabolic processes governing tree growth. Next, a random coefficients modelling approach (i.e., parameter prediction approach) was used to modify the estimated parameters for each species using functions of tree size and stage of development, site productivity, and inter-tree competition variables, while accounting for temporal correlation within trees. Impacts of fertilization on diameter growth were estimated by including the time since fertilization as an additional variable. Since state variables that are changed as a result of thinning were already in the model, accurate results post-thinning were obtained with no changes to the model. For the combined effects of thinning and fertilization, a two-step additive approach was used, where the state variables were changed following thinning and the diameter increment was modified for fertilization using the time since fertilization variable. Results indicated that multiple treatments sustain a change in growth for a longer time period following treatment than thinning or fertilization alone.     

Testis size variation in the greenfinch Carduelis chloris : relevance for some recent models of sexual selection

Interspecific evidence that testis size responds to selection caused by sperm competition has been obtained from many taxa. However, little is known about the sources of intraspecific variation in testis size, although such variation may have functional significance. Variation in testis size and asymmetry was studied within and between eight geographically separated (and genetically differentiated) populations of greenfinches Carduelis chloris. The relationships between testis size and plumage brightness (degree of yellowness) and the prevalence of haematozoan infections were also investigated in three of these populations, as they related to the predictions of the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis, and Møller's hypothesis relating directional testis asymmetry to phenotypic quality. There were large differences between populations in testis size, with males from northern populations having larger testes than those from southern populations. Within populations, large testes were associated with larger body size and greater age. When the influence of these factors was removed statistically, males with large testes were more likely to be infected with haematozoan parasites, and had brighter yellow plumage. No evidence was found that directional asymmetry in testis size was related to either of these measures of phenotypic quality. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that males with large testes, while signalling higher phenotypic quality as revealed by increased plumage brightness, also pay a cost in terms of reduced immunocompetence, revealed by the increased probability of infection in these males. That these patterns were similar in three different populations adds further strength to these conclusions. Our results suggest that studying the sources of variation in testis size among individuals can reveal interesting processes in sexual selection.     

Forest production model for upland black spruce stands—Optimal site occupancy levels for maximizing net production

The objective of this study was to develop a forest production model for determining optimal density management regimes for upland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stands based on the maximization of net production. This objective was attained via the development of an allometrically extended stand density management diagram (SDMD), which was used to describe the mass dynamics of biotic and abiotic tree components by initial density regime, site quality and fine root turnover rate. Specifically, periderm, stem, branch, foliage and abiotic crown masses were estimated employing multivariate allometric regression functions based on data derived from 125 destructively sampled trees. Below-ground mass estimates were obtained using generalized allometric relationships derived from the literature. Abiotic masses included three basic components: (1) allometrically estimated retained woody debris consisting of abiotic crown structures that remained attached to the main stem; (2) fine woody debris arising from needle loss, root turnover, and abscission of modular components; (3) coarse woody debris arising from trees which incurred mortality through self-thinning. The algorithmic version of the model (1) simultaneously calculates periodic annual net production estimates (Mg/ha/year) by 10-year intervals over 100-year rotation lengths for eight initial density conditions, (2) given (1), determines the occupancy level for which net production is maximized for each stage of development (decade interval), and (3) given (2), determines the optimal size–density trajectory within the context of a SDMD. Additionally, results derived from multiple model simulations employing a range of initial densities (1500, 1650,…, 16,350 stems/ha), site indices (9, 10,…, 15 m) and fine root turnover rates (0.2, 0.3,…,0.8 proportion/year), indicated that black spruce productivity was maximized when site occupancies were maintained slightly below the zone of imminent competition mortality. Instructions for acquiring an executable version of the model through the Internet are also included.     

Size-mediated non-trophic interactions and stochastic predation drive assembly and dynamics in a seabird community

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that body size is a major life-history trait impacting on the structure and functioning of complex food webs. However, long-term analyses of size-dependent interactions within simpler network modules, for instance, competitive guilds, are scant. Here, we model the assembly dynamics of the largest breeding seabird community in the Mediterranean basin during the last 30 years. This unique data set allowed us to test, through a "natural experiment," whether body size drove the assembly and dynamics of an ecological guild growing from very low numbers after habitat protection. Although environmental stochasticity accounted for most of community variability, the population variance explained by interspecific interactions, albeit small, decreased sharply with increasing body size. Since we found a demographic gradient along a body size continuum, in which population density and stability increase with increasing body size, the numerical effects of interspecific interactions were proportionally higher on smaller species than on larger ones. Moreover, we found that the per capita interaction coefficients were larger the higher the size ratio among competing species, but only for the set of interactions in which the species exerting the effect was greater. This provides empirical evidence for long-term asymmetric interspecific competition, which ultimately prompted the local extinction of two small species during the study period. During the assembly process stochastic predation by generalist carnivores further triggered community reorganizations and global decays in population synchrony, which disrupted the pattern of interspecific interactions. These results suggest that the major patterns detected in complex food webs can hold as well for simpler sub-modules of these networks involving non-trophic interactions, and highlight the shifting ecological processes impacting on assembling vs. asymptotic communities.     

Social context influences cue-mediated recruitment in an invasive social wasp

Social insects often serve as model systems for communication and recruitment studies, and yet, it remains controversial whether social vespid wasps can reliably communicate resource information to nestmates. In this study, I present empirical evidence that foraging strategies depend on the initial assessment of resource size and potential competition by foraging yellowjackets. The context dependent foraging behavior of Vespula pensylvanica provides a potential explanation for the inconsistent reports of the existence of recruitment communication in vespid wasps. Furthermore, life history traits may influence yellowjacket foraging behavior; annual V. pensylvanica colonies, whose foragers routinely patrol near the nest, exhibited increased bait visitation in response to the return of successful foragers, whereas perennial colonies did not. These behavioral disparities provide insight into how foraging strategies and search patterns may shift with colony size and longevity. In experiments that investigate the effects of visual cues of conspecifics and bait dispersion, foraging decisions corresponded with expectations of yellowjackets integrating resource quantity and access into a perception of demand. When resource competition could be assessed as high, V. pensylvanica foragers quickly exploited the bait closest to their colony regardless of occupation by other wasps; however, foragers preferred visiting unoccupied baits in situations where competition could be perceived as low. Moreover, a meta-analysis revealed that context-dependent, cue-mediated recruitment was widespread in Vespidae, where such foraging behaviors changed with habitat and the potential for resource competition. Such plastic foraging strategies may contribute to the invasion success of some vespid wasps.     

Vegetation competition model for water and light limitation. I: Model description, one-dimensional competition and the influence of groundwater

Vegetation growth models often concentrate on the interaction of vegetation with soil moisture but usually omit the influence of groundwater. However the proximity of groundwater can have a profound effect on vegetation growth, because it strongly influences the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture and therefore water and oxygen stress of vegetation. In two papers we describe the behavior of a coupled vegetation-groundwater-soil water model including the competition for water and light. In this first paper we describe the vegetation model, compare the model to measured flux data and show the influence of water and light competition in one dimension. In the second paper we focus on the influence of lateral groundwater flow and spatial patterns along a hillslope. The vegetation model is based on a biophysical representation of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Transpiration and stomatal conductance depend both on atmospheric forcing and soil moisture content. Carbon assimilation depends on environmental conditions, stomatal conductance and biochemical processes. Light competition is driven by tree height and water competition is driven by root water uptake and its water and oxygen stress reaction. The modeled and measured H₂O and CO₂ fluxes compare well to observations on both a diurnal and a yearly timescale. Using an upscaling procedure long simulation runs were performed. These show the importance of light competition in temperate forests: once a tree is established under slightly unfavorable soil moisture conditions it can not be outcompeted by smaller trees with better soil moisture uptake capabilities, both in dry as in wet conditions. Performing the long simulation runs with a background mortality rate reproduces realistic densities of wet and dry adapted tree species along a wet to dry gradient. These simulations show that the influence of groundwater is apparent for a large range of groundwater depths, by both capillary rise and water logging. They also show that species composition and biomass have a larger influence on the water balance in eco-hydrological systems than soil and groundwater alone.     

Quantifying the importance of local niche-based and stochastic processes to tropical tree community assembly

Although niche-based and stochastic processes, including dispersal limitation and demographic stochasticity, can each contribute to community assembly, it is difficult to quantify the relative importance of each process in natural vegetation. Here, we extend Shipley's maxent model (Community Assembly by Trait Selection, CATS) for the prediction of relative abundances to incorporate both trait-based filtering and dispersal limitation from the larger landscape and develop a statistical decomposition of the proportions of the total information content of relative abundances in local communities that are attributable to trait-based filtering, dispersal limitation, and demographic stochasticity. We apply the method to tree communities in a mature, species-rich, tropical forest in French Guiana at 1-, 0.25- and 0.04-ha scales. Trait data consisted of species' means of 17 functional traits measured over both the entire meta-community and separately in each of nine 1-ha plots. Trait means calculated separately for each site always gave better predictions. There was clear evidence of trait-based filtering at all spatial scales. Trait-based filtering was the most important process at the 1-ha scale (34%), whereas demographic stochasticity was the most important at smaller scales (37-53%). Dispersal limitation from the meta-community was less important and approximately constant across scales (-9%), and there was also an unresolved association between site-specific traits and meta-community relative abundances. Our method allows one to quantify the relative importance of local niche-based and meta-community processes and demographic stochasticity during community assembly across spatial and temporal scales.     

Erosion of Heterozygosity in Fluctuating Populations

Abstract: Demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity threaten the persistence of isolated populations. The relative importance of these intertwining factors remains unresolved, but a common view is that random demographic and environmental events will usually drive small populations to the brink of extinction before genetic deterioration poses a serious threat. To evaluate the potential importance of genetic factors, we analyzed a model linking demographic and environmental conditions to the loss of genetic diversity in isolated populations undergoing natural levels of fluctuation. Nongenetic processes—environmental stochasticity and population demography—were modeled according to a bounded diffusion process. Genetic processes were modeled by quantifying the rate of drift according to the effective population size, which was predicted from the same parameters used to describe the nongenetic processes. We combined these models to predict the heterozygosity remaining at the time of extinction, as predicted by the nongenetic portion of the model. Our model predicts that many populations will lose most or all of their neutral genetic diversity before nongenetic random events lead to extinction. Given the abundant evidence for inbreeding depression and recent evidence for elevated extinction rates of inbred populations, our findings suggest that inbreeding may be a greater general threat to population persistence than is generally recognized. Therefore, conservation biologists should not ignore the genetic component of extinction risk when assessing species endangerment and developing recovery plans.     

Patterns of growth and fluctuating asymmetry: the effects of asymmetrical investment in traits with determinate growth

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA, small and random deviations from perfect symmetry in otherwise bilaterally symmetrical traits) is assumed to depend directly on developmental stability (DS). However, since the processes related to DS operate at a microscopic level, the translation of microscopic errors to the macroscopic character asymmetries (i.e. the DS-FA relation) could be mediated by the cost of growth. To investigate the consequences of this hypothesis, I constructed a model with the following assumptions: the degree of development of a trait depends on the amount of resources allocated to growth, which may differ between individuals and between traits; the cost of growth increases with development, and developmental noise causes random asymmetries in biosynthesis in the two sides of the body. The model predicts that FA follows a parabolic trajectory as growth investment levels increase, regardless of DS. However, depending on the range of variation of investment levels, different relationships (positive, negative or flat) between trait size and asymmetry could be expected. This model may also explain why FA is correlated with the degree of stress in some traits but not in others, and why some traits present a higher level of FA than others. The model also suggests that FA measured on growing traits, at a certain size, could be a more reliable indicator of DS than FA measured on fully grown traits. A study analysing FA patterns of developing and fully grown feathers in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) corroborates that the levels of FA, and the relationship between asymmetry and feather length, depend on the degree of feather development.     

Intraspecific competition in<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Fucus serratus</Emphasis> and<Emphasis Type="Italic"> F</Emphasis>.<Emphasis Type="Italic"> evanescens</Emphasis> (Phaeophyceae: Fucales) germlings: effects of settlement density,nutrient concentration,and temperature

Survival and growth of early post-settlement stages are critical for the development of seaweed populations. Fucoid germlings commonly settle in dense monospecific aggregates, where intraspecific competition and environmental variables (e.g. nutrient concentration and temperature) may affect survival and growth. Using factorial experiments, we determined the effects of settlement density (~10, ~50 and ~250 germlings cm^–2), nutrient enrichment (from ~10 to ~40 µM N and from ~0.5 to ~2.5 µM P), and temperature (7°C and 17°C) on Fucus serratus and F. evanescens germlings in laboratory cultures over 3 months. Settlement density, nutrient concentration and temperature interactively affected growth of germlings, and the magnitude of this interaction varied between the two species. This represents the first record of such factorial interactions in Fucus spp. germlings. Intraspecific competition, estimated as the relative reduction in germling growth and survival from low to high densities, increased with decreasing nutrient concentration and increasing temperature in both species. While temperature and nutrient concentration had little effect on germling size distributions, size inequality and skewness generally increased with germling density, indicating that a few large individuals gained dominance and suppressed many smaller ones at high density. Self-thinning increased with settlement density and depended on nutrient concentration and species at high density. At high density, self-thinning increased with decreasing nutrient levels in F. evanescens, but not in F. serratus. At low density, nutrient enrichment increased germling growth in F. evanescens, but not in F. serratus, whereas growth in both species was stimulated by nutrient enrichment at higher densities. These results suggest that germling growth and self-thinning are more sensitive to variation in nutrient concentration in F. evanescens than in F. serratus. The potential implications of our findings for the understanding of eutrophication-related abundance changes in both species in southern Norway are discussed.Communicated by L. Hagerman, Helsingør     

Food resource use in a tropical eastern Pacific tidepool fish assemblage

An understanding of the trophic organization patterns of tropical littoral fish assemblages can contribute to the knowledge of key ecosystem processes while simultaneously assisting to validate large-scale biogeographic patterns (i.e. latitudinal patterns in fish herbivory). In the present study, the diets of eight fish species inhabiting the tide pools of a rocky shore on the western coast of Colombia (tropical eastern Pacific) are documented. A total of 17 prey items were identified, with a major representation (average percent by weight) of crabs and macroalgae items in the guts of all species. Small crustacean prey items (crabs, shrimps, copepods and amphipods) dominated the diets of most species, but consumption of macroalgae and diatoms by a significant number of species was also observed. We identified four significant trophic guilds within the assemblage using multivariate techniques (cluster analysis and nMDS): an omnivorous guild, consisting of Malacoctenus zonifer and the smallest size class of Bathygobius ramosus; a small-prey carnivorous guild, consisting of the intermediate size classes of B. ramosus and the smallest size class of Gobiesox adustus; a large-prey carnivorous guild, consisting of both largest size classes of B. ramosus and G. adustus; and an herbivorous guild consisting of Abudefduf concolor, A. troschelii and Chaenomugil proboscideus. The diet of two species slightly overlapped those of the rest of the assemblage and did not conform to any guild (Echidna nocturna and Halichoeres aestuaricola). It is hypothesised that guild formation may be a consequence of aggregation of species at abundant resources in the intertidal zone rather than a direct consequence of inter-specific competition. Ontogenetic changes in diets were observed in two resident species of the assemblage (B. ramosus and G. adustus). The latitudinal trend for herbivory inside this tropical assemblage is discussed in comparison with similar temperate studies in the eastern Pacific.     

Competition,fluctuating asymmetry and sperm transfer in male gryllid crickets (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gryllus bimaculatus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gryllodes sigillatus</Emphasis>)

Sperm competition theory predicts that ejaculate expenditure by males should increase with the risk of competition from rivals. The tendency to modulate expenditure, however, may reflect various constraints acting on different individuals. We test this idea here by looking at the effects of competition and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in two species of gryllid cricket. Male Gryllus bimaculatus and Gryllodes sigillatus modulated the sperm content of their spermatophores in relation to both apparent competition and FA in limb size. Males of both species increased the amount of sperm transferred when an apparent male competitor was present, sperm number increasing regardless of the species of apparent competitor in G. bimaculatus, but significantly more with a conspecific competitor in G. sigillatus. In addition, the relative size of the spermatophylax in G. sigillatus increased in the presence of apparent competition, while spermatophore transfer time decreased in G. bimaculatus. Sperm number showed opposite relationships with limb asymmetry in the two species, decreasing with increasing asymmetry in males in G. sigillatus, but increasing with asymmetry in both males and females in G. bimaculatus. G. bimaculatus, but not G. sigillatus, also transferred more sperm when paired with a larger female. Relationships between reproductive measures and limb asymmetry were significant only when competitors were present in G. bimaculatus, but were significant regardless of competition in G. sigillatus. The differences may reflect the additional burden of producing a spermatophylax in G. sigillatus.     

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 1: Model structure and general behaviour

This article describes a new forest management module (FMM) that explicitly simulates forest stand growth and management within a process-based global vegetation model (GVM) called ORCHIDEE. The net primary productivity simulated by ORCHIDEE is used as an input to the FMM. The FMM then calculates stand and management characteristics such as stand density, tree size distribution, tree growth, the timing and intensity of thinnings and clear-cuts, wood extraction and litter generated after thinning. Some of these variables are then fed back to ORCHIDEE. These computations are made possible with a distribution-based modelling of individual tree size. The model derives natural mortality from the relative density index (rdi), a competition index based on tree size and stand density. Based on the common forestry management principle of avoiding natural mortality, a set of rules is defined to calculate the recurrent intensity and frequency of forestry operations during the stand lifetime. The new-coupled model is called ORCHIDEE-FM (forest management).The general behaviour of ORCHIDEE-FM is analysed for a broadleaf forest in north-eastern France. Flux simulation throughout a forest rotation compare well with the literature values, both in absolute values and dynamics.Results from ORCHIDEE-FM highlight the impact of forest management on ecosystem C-cycling, both in terms of carbon fluxes and stocks. In particular, the average net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 225 gC m⁻² year⁻¹ is close to the biome average of 311 gC m⁻² year⁻¹. The NEP of the “unmanaged” case is 40% lower, leading us to conclude that management explains 40% of the cumulated carbon sink over 150 years. A sensitivity analysis reveals 4 major avenues for improvement: a better determination of initial conditions, an improved allocation scheme to explain age-related decline in productivity, and an increased specificity of both the self-thinning curve and the biomass-diameter allometry.     

Sexual selection favours small and symmetric males in the polygynous greater sac-winged bat Saccopteryx bilineata (Emballonuridae, Chiroptera)

We investigated how morphological traits of territorial males in the polygynous bat Saccopteryx bilineata were related to their reproductive success. Because of the frequency of aerial courtship displays and defence manoeuvres, and the high energetic costs of flight, we expected small and symmetric males to be better able to court females on the wing and to monopolize copulations with females in their harems. We predicted that small and symmetric males would sire more offspring within the colony and a larger portion of the young born within their harem than large or asymmetric males. We measured size and fluctuating asymmetry of 21 territorial males and analysed their reproductive success in 6 offspring cohorts (n=209 juveniles) using 11 microsatellite loci. As predicted, small and symmetric males had, on average, a higher reproductive success in the colony than large and asymmetric males. The percentage of young sired by males within their harem increased as males decreased in size, but was not influenced by fluctuating asymmetry. As fluctuating asymmetry of males correlated with their reproductive success within the colony but not within their harems, we infer that fluctuating asymmetry is probably related to female choice, whereas male size is probably important for harem defence on the wing.Communicated by G. Wilkinson     

Pre- and post-mating sexual selection both favor large males in a rainbowfish

Sexual selection can act through female choice and male–male competition. Although both processes can act simultaneously, they are typically studied independently. Here, we adopt a more integrated approach to studying sexual selection by incorporating measures of both processes using the western rainbowfish Melanotaenia australis, a freshwater fish endemic to northwestern Australia. We assessed male–male competition and female choice separately while measuring the performance of individual males under both processes and used paternity analyses to estimate male reproductive success. We then related the performance of males during each of these stages to their phenotype, which was described using linear measures of size and color pattern traits, and spectrographic measures of the reflectance of color patches. We found that female choice favored relatively large males and that these preferences were consistent within individual females and repeatable between different females. Larger males were also more dominant in the competition trials and sired the majority of offspring produced when females spawned. There was little evidence to suggest that sexual selection acted on male color patterns either via female choice or male contest competition or during subsequent post-mating episodes of sexual selection. We conclude, therefore, that male–male competition and female choice act concordantly to favor relatively large males and that these patterns of mating success are reflected during post-mating episodes of sexual selection.     

Patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in beetle horns: an experimental examination of the honest signalling hypothesis

Recent theoretical arguments have claimed that negative relationships between the size and symmetry of secondary sexual traits are indicative of honest signalling of male quality. The patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in beetle horns have been proposed to support the honest signalling hypothesis. Here we examine three assumptions of the hypothesis, (1) that traits are costly to produce; (2) the levels of fluctuating asymmetry are indicative of stress imposed during development; and (3) that males with larger traits should have more symmetrical traits, using the horned beetle, Onthophagus taurus. Experimental manipulations of brood mass were used to manipulate horn size and asymmetry. The development of horns was found to be environmentally determined and costly in terms of delayed development and increased risk of pre-adult mortality. Decreasing resource availability increased relative horn asymmetry. However, horn height was positively related to absolute horn asymmetry. While the results do support the hypothesis that sexual selection on secondary sexual traits should increase levels of fluctuating asymmetry, they provide no support for the notion that the patterns of asymmetry honestly signal male quality. Horns are used in disputes between males and may be indicative of male parental investment. Thus, we conclude that while horn size may be an indication of male quality, the patterns of fluctuating asymmetry are not. Received: 16 December 1996 / Accepted after revision: 5 May 1997     

Selecting parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An individual-based model of mosquitofish population dynamics

A stochastic individual-based model (IBM) of mosquitofish population dynamics in experimental ponds was constructed in order to increase, virtually, the number of replicates of control populations in an ecotoxicology trial, and thus to increase the statistical power of the experiments. In this context, great importance had to be paid to model calibration as this conditions the use of the model as a reference for statistical comparisons. Accordingly, model calibration required that both mean behaviour and variability behaviour of the model were in accordance with real data. Currently, identifying parameter values from observed data is still an open issue for IBMs, especially when the parameter space is large. Our model included 41 parameters: 30 driving the model expectancy and 11 driving the model variability. Under these conditions, the use of “Latin hypercube” sampling would most probably have “missed” some important combinations of parameter values. Therefore, complete factorial design was preferred. Unfortunately, due to the constraints of the computational capacity, cost-acceptable “complete designs” were limited to no more than nine parameters, the calibration question becoming a parameter selection question. In this study, successive “complete designs” were conducted with different sets of parameters and different parameter values, in order to progressively narrow the parameter space. For each “complete design”, the selection of a maximum of nine parameters and their respective n values was carefully guided by sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis was decisive in selecting parameters that were both influential and likely to have strong interactions. According to this strategy, the model of mosquitofish population dynamics was calibrated on real data from two different years of experiments, and validated on real data from another independent year. This model includes two categories of agents; fish and their living environment. Fish agents have four main processes: growth, survival, puberty and reproduction. The outputs of the model are the length frequency distribution of the population and the 16 scalar variables describing the fish populations. In this study, the length frequency distribution was parameterized by 10 scalars in order to be able to perform calibration. The recently suggested notion of “probabilistic distribution of the distributions” was also applied to our case study, and was shown to be very promising for comparing length frequency distributions (as such).     

Modelling the spatial structure of forest stands by multivariate point processes with hierarchical interactions

A stochastic model is applied to describe the spatial structure of a forest stand. We aim at quantifying the strength of the competition process between the trees in terms of interaction within and between different size classes of trees using multivariate Gibbs point processes with hierarchical interactions introduced in [Högmander, H., Särkkä, A., 1999. Multitype spatial point patterns with hierarchical interactions. Biometrics 55, 1051–1058]. The new model overcomes the main limitation of the traditional use of the Gibbs models allowing to describe systems with non-symmetric interactions between different objects. When analyzing interactions between neighbouring trees it is natural to assume that the size of a tree determines its hierarchical level: the largest trees are not influenced by any other trees than the trees in the same size class, while trees in the other size classes are influenced by the other trees in the same class as well as by all larger trees. In this paper, we describe a wide range of Gibbs models with both hierarchical and non-hierarchical interactions as well as a simulation algorithm and a parameter estimation procedure for the hierarchical models. We apply the hierarchical interaction model to the analysis of forest data consisting of locations and diameters of tree stems.