Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns

We investigate the market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China relative to an alternative policy instrument that rations the number of new automobile sales through auctioned quotas. Unlike those of previous studies, our modeling approach incorporates both household car purchase and utilization decisions, the latter of which have been ignored in previous studies on China's fuel tax. Ignoring this margin of choice will underestimate the fuel tax's ability to mitigate externalities. Using detailed household-level panel data and a fixed effects econometric specification, we estimate the fuel price elasticity of vehicle miles traveled is −0.59 on average. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that a 51% increase in tax-inclusive gasoline prices will reduce car sales by 24.9% but increase social welfare to a degree that depends on vehicles' lifetime. We find that compared to auctioned quotas, the fuel tax results in greater car sales but higher social welfare.     

Volume and financial value of species traded in the medicinal plant markets of Gauteng,South Africa

The demand for traditional medicinal plants and products in South Africa has created an extensive cross-border industry involving thousands of harvesters and traders. The market values of individual taxa vary considerably. Pricing structures fluctuate between markets and over time as the cost of harvesting species varies depending on a gatherer's access to the resources and the proximity of markets to the harvesting sites. This paper estimates trade values, describes the prices paid for 22 plant resources, investigates pricing structures relative to the mass/volume sold and the factors that influence the market price for plants. There is an inverse and disproportionate relationship between the price per kilogram (R/kg) and mass of the product sold. The smaller the quantity sold, the higher the R/kg sale values are relative to sales of larger quantities. This relationship is evident in different plant part types (e.g. bark and bulbs), species and markets (shops and street markets). Given the high mass sold relative to the price, bulbs, like bark, have the lowest R/kg values compared to other products like roots, fruits and leaves. The prices paid for heavier/denser species is thus disproportionate to the mass sold. If the relative values are used as an indicator of plant vulnerability (assuming high values indicate greater vulnerability), then bias is created in favour of 'lighter' and less dense plant parts typically sold in small quantities because of the nature of the plant part and the manner in which it is marketed and required by customers.     

A generalized estimating equations approach for capture–recapture closed population models

The estimation of population density animal population parameters, such as capture probability, population size, or population density, is an important issue in many ecological applications. Capture–recapture data may be considered as repeated observations that are often correlated over time. If these correlations are not taken into account then parameter estimates may be biased, possibly producing misleading results. We propose a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach to account for correlation over time instead of assuming independence as in the traditional closed population capture–recapture studies. We also account for heterogeneity among observed individuals and over-dispersion, modelling capture probabilities as a function of covariates. The GEE versions of all closed population capture–recapture models and their corresponding estimating equations are proposed. We evaluate the effect of accounting for correlation structures on capture–recapture model selection based on the quasi-likelihood information criterion (QIC). An example is used for an illustrative application and for comparison to currently used methodology. A Horvitz–Thompson-like estimator is used to obtain estimates of population size based on conditional arguments. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the GEE approach in capture-recapture studies. The GEE approach performs well for estimating population parameters, particularly when capture probabilities are high. The simulation results also reveal that estimated population size varies on the nature of the existing correlation among capture occasions.     

Deciding when to explore and when to persist: a comparison of honeybees and bumblebees in their response to downshifts in reward

As the distribution of food resources shifts over time, central place foragers are likely to be repeatedly faced with the question of when to abandon a forage site that is declining in value and to subsequently search elsewhere. Although there has been a great deal of investigation into how individual foragers allocate time between exploration and exploitation, few studies have sought to explore this issue within a larger functional context. We take a comparative approach to this problem by examining decision making in individual honeybees and bumblebees as they responded to a downshift in food reward. Our results show not only that honeybees and bumblebees have significantly divergent strategies with regards to abandoning a food source that is declining in value but also in terms of the subsequent tendency to seek an alternative food source. We interpret these results in terms of both biological and social distinctions between these species and highlight how group-level characteristics are likely to shape the evolutionarily derived foraging strategies of individual animals.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

Measuring the impact of the pet trade on Indonesian birds

The trade in wild animals involves one‐third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900‐ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market‐based pet trade and community‐wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high‐value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade.     

Spatial variogram estimation from temporally aggregated seabird count data

Seabird abundance is an important indicator for assessing impact of human activities on the marine environment. However, data collection at sea is time consuming and surveys are carried out over several consecutive days for efficiency reasons. This study investigates the validity of aggregating those data over time to estimate a spatial variogram that is representative for spatial correlation in species abundance. For this purpose we simulate four-day surveys of seabird count data that contain spatial and temporal correlation arising from temporal changes in the spatial pattern of environmental conditions. Estimates of the aggregated spatial variogram are compared to a variogram that would arise when data were collected over a single day. The study reveals that, under changing environmental conditions over surveys days, aggregating data over a four-day survey increases both the non-spatial variation in the data and the scale of spatial correlation in seabird data. Next, the effect of using an aggregated variogram on the statistical power to test the significance of an impact is investigated. The impact concerns a case of establishing an offshore wind farm resulting in seabird displacement. The study shows that both overestimation and underestimation of statistical power occurs, with power estimates differing up to a factor of two. We conclude that the spatial variation in seabird abundance can be misrepresented by using temporally aggregated data. In impact studies, such misrepresentation can lead to erroneous assessments of the ability to detect impact.     

How stable are personalities? A multivariate view of behavioural variation over long and short timescales in the sheepshead swordtail,Xiphophorus birchmanni

Many studies have revealed repeatable (among-individual) variance in behavioural traits consistent with variation in animal personality; however, these studies are often conducted using data collected over single sampling periods, most commonly with short time intervals between observations. Consequently, it is not clear whether population-level patterns of behavioural variation are stable across longer timescales and/or multiple sampling periods or whether individuals maintain consistent ranking of behaviours (and/or personality) over their lifetimes. Here, we address these questions in a captive-bred population of a tropical freshwater poeciliid fish, Xiphophorus birchmanni. Using a multivariate approach, we estimate the among-individual variance-covariance matrix (I), for a set of behavioural traits repeatedly assayed in two different experimental contexts (open-field trials, emergence and exploration trials) over long-term (56 days between observations) and short-term (4-day observation interval) time periods. In both long- and short-term data sets, we find that traits are repeatable and the correlation structure of I is consistent with a latent axis of variation in boldness. While there are some qualitative differences in the way individual traits contribute to boldness and a tendency towards higher repeatabilities in the short-term study, overall, we find that population-level patterns of among-individual behavioural (co)variance to be broadly similar over both time frames. At the individual level, we find evidence that short-term studies can be informative for an individual’s behavioural phenotype over longer (e.g. lifetime) periods. However, statistical support is somewhat mixed and, at least for some observed behaviours, relative rankings of individual performance change significantly between data sets.     

The representation of the environment in the context of individual-based modeling

Individual-based modeling includes the explicit representation of the environment, to which individual organisms interact. From the perspective of spatial representation, spatially extended environment is different from discrete individual organisms, thus the success of object-orientation in the representation of individual organisms may not be applicable to the representation of the environment. Over the past few years, the attempt to adopt object-orientation in the representation of the environment has stimulated interesting discussions over what space is and how it may be represented in ecological modeling. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the merit of two traditional approaches used to represent the environment, i.e., the grid model and the patch model, and, in particular, the object-oriented versions of the two approaches in the representation of the environment. Two case studies are provided in support of the discussions of how the environment may be represented. One case study concerns individual fish growth and movement in an aquatic environment and the other concerns the movement of calving elk in a short-grass prairie. The discussion stresses the importance of two issues in the context of individual-based modeling: (1) the distinction between object-orientation used as a programming technique and as a representation means, and (2) the conceptual compatibility between a perceived phenomenon and the approach used to represent the phenomenon. It is suggested that caution be exercised in the practice of treating cells as objects. The paper concludes that two approaches may be appropriate for individual-based modeling. One is a hybrid approach that incorporates the traditional grid model of the environment and an object-oriented model of individual organisms. The other is the all-object approach that combines the object-oriented patches of the environment and the object-oriented individual organisms.     

Predatory behavior of crowned hawk-eagles (Stephanoaetus coronatus) in Kibale National Park, Uganda

Evaluating the nature and significance of predation on populations of wild primates has been difficult given a paucity of data regarding the phenomenon. Here we addressed this problem in a 37-month study of the predatory behavior of crowned hawk-eagles living at the Ngogo study site in Kibale National Park, Uganda. We collected prey remains underneath the nests of two pairs of eagles and census data on potential prey species to investigate prey selection and the ecological impact of predation on the Ngogo primate population. Results indicate that primates form the vast majority of all prey items. Eagles prey selectively on monkeys according to sex and species. Male primates were taken more often than females, while two species, redtail monkeys and mangabeys, were captured significantly more and less, respectively, than chance expectation. In addition, there was no bias in the age of prey: adult and non-adults were killed in numbers roughly equal to their proportional representations in the forest. Further analyses indicate that a non-trivial fraction of the entire primate population at Ngogo succumbs to crowned hawk-eagle predation each year. These results reveal both parallels and contrasts with those reported previously. Some of the parallels are due to similarities in prey availability, while contrasts are likely related to methodological differences between studies, inter- individual variations in predator hunting styles, and differences in prey abundance, demography, and behavior. Received: 29 March 2000 / Revised: 6 June 2000 / Accepted: 15 October 2000     

Measuring and Monitoring Illegal Use of Natural Resources

Abstract: Illegal use of natural resources is a threat to biodiversity globally, but research on illegal activities has methodological challenges. We examined 100 studies that empirically identify targeted resources, techniques used to procure resources illegally, locations of illegal activities, characteristics of typical violators, incentives driving illegal use of resources, magnitude of the problem of illegal use (e.g., quantities used), or frequency of illegal activity. We based our evaluation of the methods used in these studies on their ability to provide these empirical data, relative labor demands, training and technology requirements, and levels of uncontrollable bias. We evaluated eight different methods: law‐enforcement records, indirect observation, self‐reporting, direct observation, direct questioning, randomized response technique (a survey method designed to improve accuracy of responses to sensitive questions), forensics, and modeling. Different situations favored different methods, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Six context‐specific factors—location of resource use (in situ vs. ex situ), budget, technology and training capacity, ease of detection of illegal activity, scope of illegal activity (limited vs. widespread), and researchers’ willingness to accept bias in results—help narrow the choice of methods. Several methodological concerns applied to any study of illegal resource use: regular monitoring can detect trends; modeling can incorporate sampling error and data uncertainties; researchers must manage levels of bias that vary between methods; triangulation of results from multiple methods can improve accuracy. No method is a panacea, but a combination of techniques can help address the lack of data on illegal activity. Researchers empirically compared results from different methods in only four studies, and no one has compared more than two methods simultaneously. Conservation would benefit from more research focused on: methods comparisons that include cost effectiveness, time efficiency, and statistical rigor; unique applications of the eight techniques currently in use; and testing of new methods.     

Twenty years of changes in spatial association and community structure among desert perennials

I present results from analyses of 20 years of spatiotemporal dynamics in a desert perennial community. Plants were identified and mapped in a 1-ha permanent plot in Joshua Tree National Park (California, USA) in 1984. Plant size, mortality, and new seedlings were censused every five years through 2004. Two species, Ambrosia dumosa and Tetracoccus hallii, were dominant based on their relative abundance and ubiquitous distributions. Spatial analysis for distance indices (SADIE) identified regions of significantly high (patches) or low (gaps) densities. I used SADIE to test for (1) transience in the distribution of patches and gaps within species over time and (2) changes in juvenile-adult associations with conspecific adults and adults of the two dominant species over time. Plant performance was quantified in patches and gaps to determine plant responsiveness to local spatial associations. Species identity was found to influence associations between juveniles and adults. Juveniles of all species showed significant positive spatial associations with the dominant A. dumosa but not with T. hallii. The broad distribution of A. dumosa may increase the spatial extent of non-dominant species that are facilitated by this dominant. The spatial location of patches and gaps was generally consistent over time for adults but not juveniles. Observed variability in the locations of juvenile patches and gaps suggested that suitable locations for establishment were broad relative to occupied regions of the habitat, and that conditions for seed germination were independent of conditions for seedling survival. A dramatic change in spatial distributions and associations within and between species occurred after a major drought that influenced data from the final census. Positive associations between juveniles and adults of all species were found independent of previous associations and most species distributions contracted to areas that were previously characterized by low density. By linking performance to spatial distribution, results from this study offer a spatial context for plant-plant interactions within and among species. Community composition could be influenced both by individual species tolerances of abiotic conditions and by the competitive or facilitative interactions individuals exert over neighbors.     

Impacts of the deforestation driven by agribusiness on urban population and economic activity in the Dry Chaco of Argentina

Agriculture expansion oriented to global market has changed the relation between population and deforestation in South America. Actually, the population dynamic in an agricultural frontier turned into a consequence of deforestation (rather than the cause). For Dry Chaco of Argentina during the period 1991–2001, we explore the impacts of deforestation over urban population and employment dynamics in small- and medium-size urban centers. We used deforestation maps from remote sensing data and demographic information from the national census. We found a positive relation between population growth and deforestation. Additionally, urban centers in a context of new and active deforestation stages generate more jobs than in a context of advanced stages. Based on our results, we suggest a boom and bust pattern. Agriculture expansion and deforestation generate transient jobs and benefits, but in a long-run perspective, positive impacts are uncertain.     

Sensitivity analysis on the ecological bias for Seoul tuberculosis data

In ecological studies, researchers often try to convey the analysis results to individual level based on aggregate data. In order to do this correctly, the possibility of ecological bias should be studied and addressed. One of the key ideas used to address the ecological bias issue is to derive the ecological model from the individual model and to check whether the parameter of interest in the individual model is identifiable in the ecological model. However, the procedure depends on unverifiable assumptions, and we recommend checking how sensitive the results are to these unverifiable assumptions. We analyzed the tuberculosis data that was collected in Seoul in 2005 using a spatial ecological regression model for the aggregate count data with spatial correlation, and found that the deprivation index is likely to have a small positive effect on the occurrence risk of tuberculosis in individual level in Seoul. We considered this finding in various aspects by performing in depth sensitivity analyses. In particular, our findings are shown to be robust to the distribution assumptions for the individual exposure and missing binary covariate across various scenarios.     

Local variation in mortality rates and life-expectancy estimates of the coral-reef fish Centropyge bicolor (Pisces: Pomacanthidae)

Mortality rates of the coral reef fish Centropyge bicolor were based on the disappearance of known individual fish. Data were collected over three years from 1978 at four sites around Lizard Island, Queensland, Australia. To measure disappearance, membership of 36 harems (comprising about 150 fish at any one time) was determined at bimonthly intervals. Mortality rates varied significantly among the four study areas. A tenfold difference in mean mortality occurred between two of the areas. The ranking of areas according to mortality rate was similar for 1978–1979 and 1979–1980. The ranking of areas was again similar for 1980–1984 when mortality rates were determined from an additional census in June 1984. Average further life-expectancy of mature fish based on mortality rates varied from 1 yr in one study area to 5 to 13 yr in a different area.     

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans-border carnivore population

Noninvasive genetic sampling has been embraced by wildlife managers and ecologists, especially those charged with monitoring rare and elusive species over large areas. Challenges arise when desired population measures are not directly attainable from genetic data and when monitoring targets trans-border populations. Norwegian management authorities count individual brown bears (Ursus arctos) using noninvasive genetic sampling but express management goals in the annual number of bear reproductions (females that produce cubs), a measure that is not directly available from genetic data. We combine noninvasive genetic sampling data with information obtained from a long-term intensive monitoring study in neighboring Sweden to estimate the number of annual reproductions by females detected within Norway. Most female brown bears in Norway occur near the border with neighboring countries (Sweden, Finland, and Russia) and their potential reproduction can therefore only partially be credited to Norway. Our model includes a simulation-based method that corrects census data to account for this. We estimated that 4.3 and 5.7 reproductions can be credited to females detected with noninvasive genetic sampling in Norway in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These numbers fall substantially short of the national target (15 annual reproductions). Ignoring the potential for home ranges to extend beyond Norway's borders leads to an increase in the estimate of the number of reproductions by -30%. Our study shows that combining noninvasive genetic sampling with information obtained from traditional intensive/invasive monitoring can help answer contemporary management questions in the currency desired by managers and policy makers. Furthermore, combining methodologies and thereby accounting for space use increases the accuracy of the information on which decisions are based. It is important that the information derived from multiple approaches is applicable to the same focal population and that predictions are cross-validated. When monitoring and management are constrained to administrative units, census data should be adjusted by discounting portions of individual space utilization that extend beyond the focal jurisdiction. Our simulation-based approach for making such an adjustment may be useful in other situations where management authorities target portions of trans-border populations.     

Long-term individual identification and site fidelity of white sharks, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carcharodon carcharias</Emphasis>, off California using dorsal fins

Mark-recapture techniques can be used to estimate white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population abundance. These frameworks are based on assumptions that marks are conserved and animals are present at the sampling location over the entire duration of the study. Though these assumptions have been validated across short-time scales for white sharks, long-term studies of population trends are dependent on these assumptions being valid across longer periods. We use 22 years of photographic data from aggregation sites in central California to support the use of dorsal fin morphology as long-term individual identifiers. We identified five individuals over 16–22 years, which support the use of dorsal fins as long-time individual identifiers, illustrate strong yearly site fidelity to coastal aggregation sites across extended time periods (decades), and provide the first empirical validation of white shark longevity >22 years. These findings support the use of fin morphology in mark-recapture frameworks for white sharks.     

Money wages,price of nontradable goods,and the environmental goods

The effect of environmental goods on money wages and the price of nontradable goods is analyzed. Environment is treated as a regular good, and as such, is added to the two other composite goods which are typically used as components of the utility function. In the budget constraint the relevant amount of environmental goods consists of that part which the individual might purchase in the market. Under these conditions it is demonstrated that an equilibrium situation will prevail if either the money wage or the price of the nontradable good, or both, are a function of the given amount of the environmental goods.     

Connectivity between countries established by landbirds and raptors migrating along the African–Eurasian flyway

The conservation of long-distance migratory birds requires coordination between the multiple countries connected by the movements of these species. The recent expansion of tracking studies is shedding new light on these movements, but much of this information is fragmented and inaccessible to conservation practitioners and policy makers. We synthesized current knowledge on the connectivity established between countries by landbirds and raptors migrating along the African–Eurasian flyway. We reviewed tracking studies to compile migration records for 1229 individual birds, from which we derived 544 migratory links, each link corresponding to a species’ connection between a breeding country in Europe and a nonbreeding country in sub-Saharan Africa. We used these migratory links to analyze trends in knowledge over time and spatial patterns of connectivity per country (across species), per species (across countries), and at the flyway scale (across all countries and all species). The number of tracking studies available increased steadily since 2010 (particularly for landbirds), but the coverage of existing tracking data was highly incomplete. An average of 7.5% of migratory landbird species and 14.6% of raptor species were tracked per country. More data existed from central and western European countries, and it was biased toward larger bodied species. We provide species- and country-level syntheses of the migratory links we identified from the reviewed studies, involving 123 populations of 43 species, migrating between 28 European and 43 African countries. Several countries (e.g., Spain, Poland, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo) are strategic priorities for future tracking studies to complement existing data, particularly on landbirds. Despite the limitations in existing tracking data, our data and results can inform discussions under 2 key policy instruments at the flyway scale: the African–Eurasian Migratory Landbirds Action Plan and the Memorandum of Understanding on the Conservation of Migratory Birds of Prey in Africa and Eurasia.     

Error propagation in spatial modeling of public health data: a simulation approach using pediatric blood lead level data for Syracuse,New York

Lead poisoning produces serious health problems, which are worse when a victim is younger. The US government and society have tried to prevent lead poisoning, especially since the 1970s; however, lead exposure remains prevalent. Lead poisoning analyses frequently use georeferenced blood lead level data. Like other types of data, these spatial data may contain uncertainties, such as location and attribute measurement errors, which can propagate to analysis results. For this paper, simulation experiments are employed to investigate how selected uncertainties impact regression analyses of blood lead level data in Syracuse, New York. In these simulations, location error and attribute measurement error, as well as a combination of these two errors, are embedded into the original data, and then these data are aggregated into census block group and census tract polygons. These aggregated data are analyzed with regression techniques, and comparisons are reported between the regression coefficients and their standard errors for the error added simulation results and the original results. To account for spatial autocorrelation, the eigenvector spatial filtering method and spatial autoregressive specifications are utilized with linear and generalized linear models. Our findings confirm that location error has more of an impact on the differences than does attribute measurement error, and show that the combined error leads to the greatest deviations. Location error simulation results show that smaller administrative units experience more of a location error impact, and, interestingly, coefficients and standard errors deviate more from their true values for a variable with a low level of spatial autocorrelation. These results imply that uncertainty, especially location error, has a considerable impact on the reliability of spatial analysis results for public health data, and that the level of spatial autocorrelation in a variable also has an impact on modeling results.