An Ex Post Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution Control Program in Tokyo

ABSTRACT

The benefits and costs of past nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) control policies were calculated for Tokyo, Japan, using environmental, economic, political, demographic, and medical data from 1973 to 1994. The benefits of NO₂ control were estimated as medical expenses and lost work time due to hypothetical no-control air concentrations of NO₂. Direct costs were calculated as annualized capital expenditures and 1 year's operating costs for regulated industries plus governmental agency expenses. The major findings were as follows:

(1) Using Tokyo's average medical cost of pollution-related illness, the best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of phlegm and sputum in adults was 730 billion yen ($6.08 billion; 1 U.S. dollar = 120 yen).

(2) The best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of lower respiratory illness in children was 93 billion yen ($775 million).

(3) Using Tokyo's average duration of pollution-related illness and average wages, the best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in workers was 760 billion yen ($6.33 billion).

(4) The best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in mothers caring for their sick children was 100 billion yen ($833 million).

(5) Using Tokyo-specific data, the best net costs were estimated as 280 billion yen ($2.33 billion).

(6) Using human health and productivity benefits, and annualized capital cost and operating cost estimates, the best net benefits-to-costs ratio was 6:1 (upper limit 44:1; lower limit 0.3:1). Benefit calculations were sensitive to assumptions of mobile source emissions and certain health impacts that were not included. Cost calculations were highly dependent on assumptions of flue gas volume and fuel use. For comparative purposes, we identified other studies for air pollution-related illness. Assumptions that formed the basis for most of the inputs in the present study, such as duration of illness, medical treatment costs, per person illness in children, and lost wages for working mothers, were similar to those recommended in the literature. Lost wages in sick workers and per capita illness incidence in adults were higher than numbers reported elsewhere. Further advances in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures to evaluate the economic effectiveness of NO₂ controls in Tokyo are recommended to estimate impacts and values for additional human health benefits, ecosystem health and productivity effects, and nonliving system effects, as well as benefits of ancillary reductions in other pollutants. The present study suggests that Tokyo's past NO₂ control policies in total were economically quite effective.     

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.     

1990 Thermal Remediation Industry Contractor Survey

The treatment of soil contaminated with organics and inorganics is becoming a major industry in the United States and Europe. The soil cleanup bill for the United States could run as high as $200 to $300 billion over the next 30 to 40 years. European soil cleanup costs could run as high as $130 billion.¹

The types of sites in the United States that will require soil treatment can be broken down into the following categories: ? CERCLA (Superfund) Actions

? RCRA Corrective Actions

? RCRA Closures

? Underground Storage Tanks

? Real Estate Transfers

? Spill Clean-ups.

The cleanup of sites in each of these categories, with the exception of the Real Estate Transfer category, is being driven by different sets of Federal regulations. Real Estate Transfer type regulations were first instituted in New Jersey and have now been promulgated in a number of other states.

The eventual cleanup cost for the Superfund sites will be close to $200 billion. Estimated costs for the industrial sector Superfund are $25 to $50 billion and the estimated cost for the Department of Energy sites is over $150 billion.2 An early RCRA Corrective Action cleanup estimate is $25 billion.3 This estimate may well be low, however, since the permitting, cleanup and delisting criteria are still not clearly defined. The EPA’s RCRA Corrective Action cost estimate is $7.4 billion. However, the Office of Management and Budget feels that this estimate is low.⁴

The potential magnitude of the cleanup costs has resulted in the development and implementation of many technologies for the decontamination of soils. Of the available remedial technologies, thermal treatment has perhaps had the most field testing. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the full scale site remediations which have been or are being conducted using thermal processing equipment. Projects which have been completed, are on-going, or have been contracted for, through January of 1990 are described.     

Cost-effective reduction of NOx emissions from electricity generation.

This paper analyzes the benefits and costs of policies to reduce NOx emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Because emissions of NO contribute to the high concentration of atmospheric ozone in the eastern states associated with health hazards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has called on eastern states to formulate state implementation plans (SIPs) for reducing NOx emissions. Our analysis considers three NOx reduction scenarios: a summer seasonal cap in the eastern states covered by EPA's NOx SIP Call, an annual cap in the same SIP Call region, and a national annual cap. All scenarios allow for emissions trading. Although EPA's current policy is to implement a seasonal cap in the SIP Call region, this analysis indicates that an annual cap in the SIP Call region would yield about $400 million more in net benefits (benefits less costs) than would a seasonal policy, based on particulate-related health effects only. An annual cap in the SIP Call region is also the policy that is most likely to achieve benefits in excess of costs. Consideration of omissions from this accounting, including the potential benefits from reductions in ozone concentrations, strengthens the finding that an annual program offers greater net benefits than does a seasonal program.     

Valuing coral reefs: a travel cost analysis of the Great Barrier Reef

This study examines domestic and international travel to the Great Barrier Reef in order to estimate the benefits the reef provides to the 2 million visitors each year. The study explores the problems of functional form and of measuring travel cost for international visits: comparing actual costs, distance, and lowest price fares. The best estimates of the annual recreational benefits of the Great Barrier Reef range between USD 700 million to 1.6 billion. The domestic value to Australia is about USD 400 million, but the estimated value to more distant countries depends on the definition of travel cost and the functional form. The study conclusively demonstrates that there are very high benefits associated with protecting high quality coral reefs.     

Economic evaluation of a landfill system with gas recovery for municipal solid waste management: a case study

Economic activity uses resources, which leads to waste generation. With rapid industrialisation and urbanisation, per capita solid waste generation has increased considerably. Solid waste generation data for last two decades shows an alarming increase. Owing to its improper and untimely collection, the transport and disposal of municipal solid waste poses a severe threat to various components of the environment and also to public health. This paper describes the merits and demerits of various technological aspects of solid waste management. Landfill technology, as it is the most widely employed and is regarded as the most suitable and simple mechanism, especially for tropical countries such as India, is emphasised. All possible costs and benefits and externalities are examined. A cost-benefit analysis of a landfill system with gas recovery (LFSGR) has been carried out for Mumbai city's solid waste, accounting for certain external costs and benefits, and found that it could make a huge difference of savings of about Rs. 6.366 billion (approx. $0.l40 billion) per annum with reference to the existing system of waste disposal.     

Shade trees reduce building energy use and CO2 emissions from power plants

Urban shade trees offer significant benefits in reducing building air-conditioning demand and improving urban air quality by reducing smog. The savings associated with these benefits vary by climate region and can be up to $200 per tree. The cost of planting trees and maintaining them can vary from $10 to $500 per tree. Tree-planting programs can be designed to have lower costs so that they offer potential savings to communities that plant trees. Our calculations suggest that urban trees play a major role in sequestering CO2 and thereby delay global warming. We estimate that a tree planted in Los Angeles avoids the combustion of 18 kg of carbon annually, even though it sequesters only 4.5-11 kg (as it would if growing in a forest). In this sense, one shade tree in Los Angeles is equivalent to three to five forest trees. In a recent analysis for Baton Rouge, Sacramento, and Salt Lake City, we estimated that planting an average of four shade trees per house (each with a top view cross section of 50 m2) would lead to an annual reduction in carbon emissions from power plants of 16,000, 41,000, and 9000 t, respectively (the per-tree reduction in carbon emissions is about 10-11 kg per year). These reductions only account for the direct reduction in the net cooling- and heating-energy use of buildings. Once the impact of the community cooling is included, these savings are increased by at least 25%.     

Cost-Effective Reduction of NOx Emissions from Electricity Generation

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the benefits and costs of policies to reduce NO_x emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Because emissions of NOx contribute to the high concentration of atmospheric ozone in the eastern states associated with health hazards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has called on eastern states to formulate state implementation plans (SIPs) for reducing NO_x emissions. Our analysis considers three NO_x reduction scenarios: a summer seasonal cap in the eastern states covered by EPA's NO_x SIP Call, an annual cap in the same SIP Call region, and a national annual cap. All scenarios allow for emissions trading. Although EPA's current policy is to implement a seasonal cap in the SIP Call region, this analysis indicates that an annual cap in the SIP Call region would yield about $400 million more in net benefits (benefits less costs) than would a seasonal policy, based on particulate-related health effects only. An annual cap in the SIP Call region is also the policy that is most likely to achieve benefits in excess of costs. Consideration of omissions from this accounting, including the potential benefits from reductions in ozone concentrations, strengthens the finding that an annual program offers greater net benefits than does a seasonal program.     

The Effectiveness and Cost of Retrofit For Reducing Automobile Emissions

EPA has recently evaluated several automobile retrofit devices that are potentially applicable to pre-1975 vehicles. The results of this evaluation are described and used to estimate the effectiveness and cost of retrofit for reducing total automobile emissions in the period 1975-1985. It is estimated that retrofit combined with inspection/maintenance can potentially achieve reductions in automobile emissions of 33% to 60% in 1975, depending on pollutant, and 10% to 20% in 1985. The estimated present value discounted to 1972 of the average cost per retrofit vehicle is $30 to $152 over the period 1975-1985 depending on the retrofit system used. The corresponding annualized cost is $6 to $28 per vehicle.     

Economic Benefits of Improvements in Visibility: Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

The Acid Rain Provisions (Title IV) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 call for about a 10 million ton reduction in annual SO₂ emissions in the United States. Although the provisions apply nationwide, most of the reduction will occur in the eastern half of the country, where use of high-sulfur coal for electricity generation is most common. One potentially large benefit of Title IV is the expected improvement in visibility conditions in the eastern United States due to the reductions in secondary sul-fate aerosols. This paper combines available economic estimates of willingness to pay for improvements in visibility with current estimates of the difference between expected visibility conditions in the eastern United States with and without Title I V, to estimate the expected visibility benefits of Title IV. The results suggest an annual value of $2.3 billion (in 1994 dollars) in the year 2010, as a result of visibility improvements due to Title IV in residential areas of the eastern United States. The results also suggest a possible additional annual value for eastern U.S. residents of as much as $1-2 billion for visibility improvements at national parks in the Southeast.     

A Program Analysis

A comprehensive analysis of inspection maintenance programs is proposed. Effectiveness, costs to the state and to the individual, distribution of cost and benefits, and political and administrative feasibility are examined. Effectiveness is probably the most difficult aspect to project because of changes in design and consequences of maintenance repair on performance. However, using sensitivity analysis, substantial reductions in hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are foreseen, along with a slight increase in NO_x emissions.

The cost to the state to administer the program is estimated to be between $2.00 and $2.50 per vehicle, which could be covered by the inspection fee. The other direct costs for the driver, lost time, travel, and repairs, may be offset by fuel and tuneup savings which could amount to as much as 50% of the repair bill. Analysis of distribution costs and indirect social consequences cannot be completed until additional information about the effect of income on maintenance is generated. Politically the program is feasible but depends on public support which in turn is sensitive to direct repair costs. Administratively the program suffers greatly if private repair facilities do not have enough adequately trained mechanics.

It is concluded that the benefits of an inspection program do not convincingly outweigh the high costs, possible adverse social impacts, and public opposition and that other alternatives should be examined.     

Determining the Costs of Air Pollution Control

A general procedure has been described that can be followed for estimating the cost of reducing air pollution emissions within a metropolitan region. The six step procedure examines emission inventories, regional trends, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness. The procedure is illustrated for one emission source in the Delaware Valley. By application of “feasible controls,” automobile emissions were shown to be reduced from 4.5 billion pounds per year in the Region during 1968 to 1.5 billion pounds in the year 2000. Annual control costs during the same period will increase from $30 million to over $300 million per year. This represents a cost increase from $15 per registered vehicle in 1968 to about $58 per vehicle per year in 2000. A method was illustrated for determining minimum cost to achieve any desired degree of emission reduction where alternate feasible control schemes are available. This method is especially useful where the allocation of scarce resources is involved. The general procedure is applicable to any number of pollutants and emission sources, and may be useful for calculations in any metropolitan area. The objectives of the present study are to apply this method to other sources within the Delaware Valley and to determine total regional costs for various levels of emission reduction. As one example of a practical application for this type of analysis, the economic impact of regulatory schemes can be evaluated on a cost-effectiveness basis     

Evaluation of Nationwide Health Costs of Air Pollution and Cigarette Smoking

Total nationwide health costs due to air pollution and cigarette smoking were evaluated by determining the percentages of the total respiratory disease cost for 1970 due to the separate and the synergistic effects of smoking and air pollution. Previous studies known to the authors did not properly account for the well established synergistic effect of smoking and air pollution, and also assumed that the urban factor (ratio of urban incidence to rural incidence) was due primarily or exclusively to air pollution. Recent evidence strongly indicates that air pollution is not the primary cause of the urban factor, although it does make a contribution. Taking a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 50% of the urban factor to be due to air pollution, the total 1970 nationwide health cost due to air pollution was found to be between $62 million and $311 million, and the nationwide health cost due to cigarette smoking was found to be $4.23 billion.     

The response of epiphytic lichens to air pollution and subsets of ecological predictors: a case study from the Italian Prealps

We investigated the response of epiphytic lichens to air pollution, against the background of other ecological predictors in a prealpine heterogeneous area, using Non-Parametric Multiplicative Regression (NPMR). The best NPMR model for total lichen diversity according to N environmental predictors at tree level has a cross R(2)=0.709. It includes 10 variables, belonging to three different subsets of factors: two pollution-related factors (distance in meters from the road and from the cement factory); four stand-related (habitat, heat index, LAI and elevation) and four substrate-related factors (inclination, circumference and texture and tree species). Considering separately the effects of each subset on lichen diversity, substrate- and stand-related factors produce good models with similar cross R(2) (0.490 and 0.500, respectively), whereas pollution-related factors produce a model with a lower cross R(2) (0.340). Hence, we provide information to investigate the applicability of lichen biomonitoring to complex heterogeneous areas where standardized protocols are not reliable.     

Ambient Oxidant Exposure andHealth Costs in the United States—1973

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to policy makers and administrators involved in the evaluation and assessment of damages caused by oxidant air pollution on human health and welfare and of possible benefits of control.

To provide a comparison of some of the benefits that can be obtained by reducing photochemical oxidant levels, estimated health costs were derived from data relating adverse health effects to hourly oxidant concentrations. Hourly oxidant or ozone concentrations were measured at approximately 400 monitoring stations scattered throughout the U.S. Most of these sites were located in major urban areas or in other areas where high oxidant concentrations prevailed. Estimates of populations at risk and per capita health costs were generated for those areas where oxidant data was available.

During the period 1971-1973, nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population resided in areas where the hourly primary standard for oxidants of 160 µg/m³ was exceeded. The total annual health cost attributable to oxidants was estimated to range from $120 to over $240 million in the U.S.     

International trade causes large net economic losses in tropical countries via the destruction of ecosystem services

Despite the large implications of the use of tropical land for exports (“land absorption”) on ecosystem services (ES) and global biodiversity conservation, the magnitude of these externalities is not known. We quantify the net value of ES lost in tropical countries as a result of cropland, forestland and pastureland absorption for exports after deducting ES gains through imports (“land displacement”). We find that net ES gains occur only in 7 out of the 41 countries and regions considered. We estimate global annual net losses of over 1.7 x 10¹² international dollars (I$) (I$1.1 x 10¹² if carbon-related services are not considered). After deducting the benefits from agricultural, forest and livestock rents in land replacing tropical forests, the net annual losses are I$1.3 and I$0.7 x 10¹², respectively. The results highlight the large magnitude of tropical ES losses through international trade that are not compensated by the rents of land uses in absorbed land.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0768-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

IAPCS: A Computer Model that Evaluates Pollution Control Systems for Utility Boilers

The IAPCS model, developed by U.S. EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory and made available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, can be used by utility companies, architectural and engineering companies, and regulatory agencies at all levels of government to evaluate commercially available technologies for control of SO₂, NO_x, and particulate matter emissions from coal-fired utility boilers with respect to performance and cost. The model is considered to be a useful tool to compare alternative control strategies to be used by utilities to comply with the requirements of the CAA, and to evaluate the sensitivity of control costs with respect to many of the significant variables affecting costs.

To illustrate the use of the model for site-specific studies, the authors used the model to estimate control costs for SO₂ and NO_x control at Detroit Edison’s Monroe plant and two hypothetical plants under consideration and at three plants operated by New York State Electric and Gas Corporation. The economic and technical assumptions used to drive the model were those proposed by the utilities if cited, and if not cited, the model default values were used. The economic format and methodologies for costs cited in the Electric Power Research Institute’s Technical Assessment Guide are used in the IAPCS model. Depending on the specific conditions and assumptions for the cases evaluated, SO₂ control costs ranged from $417 to $3,159 per ton of SO₂ removed, and NO_x control costs ranged from $461 to $3,537 per ton of NO_x removed or reduced.     

Assessing the economic benefits and costs of conservation tillage

The economic benefits of the adoption of conservation tillage depend on site-specific factors, including soil characteristics, local climatic conditions, cropping patterns, and other attributes of the overall farming operation. While it is possible to draw some general inferences about components of economic returns and costs, a comprehensive assessment of the net private benefits from greater use of conservation tillage is not feasible.     

Operating Experience with the Alcoa 398 Process for Fluoride Recovery

During the 1940’s, aluminum smelting installations were increased in size to provide aluminum necessary for World War II. Increased evolution of fluorides made necessary the capture and treatment of pot gases. Following the application of water scrubbers, cyclones, and electrostatic precipitators, Alcoa Research Laboratories at New Kensington, Pa., discovered that small quantities of HF gas would react at low temperature with alumina. Following a series of design efforts, the Alcoa 398 Process was developed, incorporating a fluidizedbed reactor to contact pot gases with incoming feed alumina. Bag filters are used to separate entrained solid materials from pot gases. Ninety-five percent interception of pot gases is reported with 99% recovery of fluorides from gases treated. No significant effect is observed on purity of metal produced.

Installation costs are in the range of $>28-$37 per annual ton for new installations and about 50% more for conversion of old plants. These are somewhat less than the conventional electrostatic precipitators and water scrubbers at today’s prices. Direct operating costs for the Alcoa 398 Process range from $2.90 to $4.70/ton of aluminum and recover $8 worth of fluorine, giving a net credit. This contrasts with $3.93/ton of aluminum to operate existing precipitator scrubber combinations. The Alcoa 398 Process is being rapidly extended throughout the Alcoa system.