自然资源的库兹涅茨曲线:来自中国省级面板数据的证据

本文运用1978-2011年我国30个省份的面板数据,对我国省级层面资源丰裕度与经济增长的关系进行了检验。研究发现,我国省级层面资源丰裕度与经济增长之间的关系并不是单一线性的,而是一种非线性的动态演变关系。当使用其他资源丰裕度和经济增长的指标进行稳健性检验,这种强烈的非线性关系仍然存在。更进一步,对自然资源作用经济增长的机制进行实证检验,结果显示:长期中丰裕的自然资源会通过降低人力资本和物质资本的投资对经济结构产生"诅咒";恶化政府与市场的关系、阻碍非国有经济的发展、中介组织的发育和法律的完善等,从而对政治制度产生"诅咒"。     

基于集聚优势视角的资源诅咒现象分析

资源诅咒是指丰裕的自然资源对经济增长非但没有起到促进作用,反而限制了经济的长期增长.国际经济学界一直在寻找其中的传导机制,并形成了若干不同的观点,有的将原因归结为贸易条件的长期恶化,有的认为是因为荷兰病所致,有的则认为是由于人力资本的投资不足,还有人认为是丰裕的自然资源引发了寻租和腐败.笔者则是另辟蹊径,运用集聚优势理论,从丰裕的自然资源对生产优势、金融优势和战略优势的影响入手,全面地解释了资源诅咒的传导机制.笔者认为,随着经济的全球化和科学技术的发展,自然资源自身的作用在不断下降,而丰裕的自然资源又使人力资源优势和技术资源优势丧失,从而降低了生产优势;丰裕的自然资源又通过汇率的变化使金融优势变弱;丰裕的自然资源还影响了一个国家或地区的贸易战略、政治战略和人力资源战略,从而使战略优势降低.丰裕的自然资源对三大优势的影响,降低了该国或地区集聚优势的能力,抑制了经济增长,从而产生资源诅咒现象.笔者还对此进行了实证分析,最后提出避免资源诅咒的政策建议.     

政府主导、市场分割与资源诅咒——中国自然资源禀赋对经济增长作用研究

资源诅咒现象形成的主要机制是,优良的自然资源禀赋通过降低市场制度效率、扭曲经济正常结构和提升市场信息成本三个渠道降低经济系统的投入-产出效率,最终影响长期经济发展水平。这三个机制顺利实现的前提条件是市场行为支配着资源流动结构,而这一条件在我国仍需要检验,政府主导是我国经济增长中的显著特征,因此资源禀赋影响经济增长的性质需要在考虑政府作用条件下进行解释。地方政府影响经济具有严格的区域性,因此资源诅咒性质的区域内外是否一致是政府主导经济是否显著的重要表现,基于此本文区分行政区域和经济区域,利用劳动生产率和资源禀赋之间的统计关系来判定我国"资源诅咒"的存在性及其性质,并从经济制度角度对其进行解释。首先,利用Malmquist指数方法对我国2000-2010年省际经济增长的经济效率分解并作为经济增长的质量指标,同时为避免变量的"内生性问题"而采用采矿业就业人数占总人口比例度量各省的资源丰裕度。控制经济区位后的计量回归结果表明:各省份自然资源对各种经济效率均有正向作用,但是各省份相邻区域的自然资源禀赋对于具体省份经济效率并无影响,经济区位对于各省份技术进步和整体经济效率的影响显著,但对于各省份技术使用效率并不存在显著影响,各省份自身制度效率受资源丰裕度、相邻地区资源丰裕度、经济区位的影响不显著。制度分析表明:政府主导和区域市场分割构成我国经济增长体制环境的典型特征,这种体制中地方政府的效率是决定区域经济增长效率的重要因素。在这种制度环境中,自然资源通过影响地方政府对经济干预力度来影响经济增长效率形成"资源福祉"现象,并且由于地方政府主导经济的区域性和政府之间经济角色的竞争关系性质,这种"资源福祉"被严格限定在行政区域内。     

中国资源富集地区资源禀赋影响经济增长的机制研究

自然资源禀赋对经济增长来说究竟是“财富”还是“诅咒”是一个存在争议的问题.我国资源富集地区经济发展过程中呈现了对自然资源的高度依赖,自然资源禀赋与经济增长总体上呈现负相关关系,但资源禀赋通过何种渠道影响经济增长尚缺乏理论和实证检验.本文以“条件收敛”假说为基础,构建了资源禀赋对人均收入影响的理论模型,并将自然资源对经济增长所产生的影响区分为直接效应和间接效应;在此基础上,以我国煤炭、石油、天然气和铁矿石地域分布与储量前十名的18个省(区)19年的自然资源储量以及经济社会面板数据为研究对象,在分析了自然资源对经济增长所产生直接、间接和总效应大小的同时,对我国资源富集地区资源禀赋影响经济增长的渠道和机制进行了比较.研究结果显示:自然资源禀赋对我国经济增长的影响既存在正面的直接效应,也存在负面的间接效应,且间接效应大于直接效应;自然资源禀赋主要是通过影响投资、受教育水平、开放度、R&D等社会经济变量,降低了自然资源对经济增长的促进作用.     

资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证

针对"资源诅咒"研究中自然资源度量指标选取存在的科学性问题,利用资源产业空间集聚代替自然资源丰裕度和资源产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕程度的解释变量。首先,在Krugman空间基尼系数的基础上,构建适用于测度资源产业空间集聚的计算公式,基于我国30个省(区、市)层面的数据,量化1999—2013年间资源产业的空间集聚程度,分析其排名情况和分布格局。研究显示:我国有15个省(区、市)存在资源产业空间集聚现象,这些地区大多位于长江以北,且均为自然资源富集地区。其次,构建经济增长计量模型,选取存在资源产业空间集聚现象的省(区、市)作为样本空间,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业空间集聚度与区域经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业空间集聚的系数符号均为负,且在5%的水平上显著,说明资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长间的关系呈现负相关,符合"资源诅咒"的基本假设。2在模型分步估计中,人力资本投资、技术创新投入和制造业发展与区域经济增长正相关,符合经典经济增长理论的逻辑关系;物质资本投资与区域经济增长负相关,可能是由于当地经济主体的消费跨期替代弹性较小,导致物质资本投资对经济增长的直接增益效应小于其对社会人力资本积累的负向效应,进而阻碍区域经济增长;政府干涉程度越高越不利于经济增长。根据研究结果,建议应明确市场调节为主、政府调控为辅的导向机制,进一步提升资源产业空间集聚程度,强化行业人员素质与技术水平匹配,逐步提高自然资源生产和利用效率,从而实现加快地区经济转型,有效促进经济可持续发展的全面提升。     

中国区域经济与资源丰度相关性研究

以省域面板数据为基础．选取水、耕地、森林、能源、矿产等五种资源．验证了1978—2004年中国不同种类资源丰度与区域经济发展之问的相关关系。研究表明：①资源诅咒原理在中国内部区域之间仍然成立，除水资源外．耕地、能源、矿产和森林等四种资源的丰度与区域经济发展水平都呈现负相关关系．其程度由裔到低依次是：耕地资源、矿产资源、能源资源、森林资源；②遭遇“资源诅咒”的省处于“资源丰度一经济发展”坐标系第Ⅳ象限。并绝大多数都位于西部地区和东北地区；③各省人均GDP与综合资源丰度的对数成反比．我国资源丰裕度与经济发展水平成相反的变化趋势；④自然资源对于经济增长的影响作用往往是通过多种机制共同作用的结果．中国资源诅咒的传导机制主要包括“荷兰病”效应、制度效应、“挤出”效应以及区位和交通因素等方面。     

自然资源禀赋与城市化水平关系的多尺度考察

通过对单体区域在时间序列上的分析和对多个区域面板数据集综合水平的横向比较，本文在多个尺度上验证了自然资源禀赋在区域城市化过程的“资源诅咒”假说，并且通过在省际层面上建立经济计量模型进行理论检验，也得出“资源诅咒”效应在一定程度上的确存在的结论。文章还分析了城市化过程中自然资源产生限制作用的作用机理。认为这种效应是多种要素综合作用的结果，并提出了相应的政策建议。这项研究在理论上丰富了城市化动力机制和“资源诅咒”假说的研究，在实践上也具有一定的现实意义。     

民族地区能源开发与经济增长效率研究——基于“资源诅咒”假说

"资源诅咒"现象是伴随着能源资源开发带来的新问题。本文基于2000-2012年间的面板数据,运用固定效应变截距模型,探讨民族地区"资源诅咒"效应,讨论"资源诅咒"效应的差异性,分析"资源诅咒"效应的影响因素,并运用层次分析法计算权重,构建经济增长效率模型,探讨"资源诅咒"对经济增长效率的影响。结果表明,民族地区存在"资源诅咒"现象,从单个变量看,能源产业依赖度抑制了云南、广西、贵州、青海、新疆的"资源诅咒"效应,但却加剧了内蒙古和宁夏的"资源诅咒"效应,而能源产业丰裕度和能源开发强度能够缓解青海、宁夏、新疆的"资源诅咒"效应,但加剧了内蒙古、云南、广西、贵州的"资源诅咒"效应;从省际层面看,内蒙古"资源诅咒"效应明显,其他省区表现相对较弱。由面板模型的结果可知,对经济增长起促进作用的变量是技术创新投入、能源开发强度、物质资本投资,对经济增长起阻碍作用的变量是能源产业依赖度和能源产业丰裕度。从各省区煤炭、天然气、石油产量变化情况看,"资源诅咒"现象的来源主要是煤炭,除了煤炭之外,青海对石油、宁夏对天然气、新疆对石油和天然气的依赖度也很大。从2000-2012年间经济增长效率值的动态变化来看,内蒙古、云南、广西、青海、宁夏"资源诅咒"现象明显,时间拐点分别出现在2004年、2006年、2003年、2001年、2003年;新疆的经济增长效率值离散情况虽然比较严重,但总体来看呈现下降趋势;贵州的"资源诅咒"现象前期表现明显,但在2006年以后"资源诅咒"效应得以消除。民族地区要摆脱"资源诅咒"效应应当优化产业结构,降低对煤炭资源的依赖度,由资源依赖型产业向非资源型经济转移,扩大就业及经济增长空间;从技术创新投入入手,加强科技和教育投入,提高技术创新能力,加快能源开发效率。     

广义“资源诅咒”的理论内涵与实证检验

越来越多的研究发现,自然资源富集的国家或地区往往拥有较缓慢的发展速度,似乎丰富的自然资源反而阻碍了经济的发展,造成一国或地区经济的不可持续发展,即前人所说的"资源诅咒".回顾文献发现,前人对"资源诅咒"本质、发生机制等的研究均集中反映的是自然资源与经济增长的关系,而本文在此基础上提出了广义"资源诅咒"的概念,从诅咒发生的主体、客体、传导机制等几方面定义了广义"资源诅咒"的理论内涵,并选取山西省作为典型案例进行了传导机制与诅咒现象的耦合关系分析,最终得出结论:长期来看,对自然资源过分依赖的国家或地区很有可能陷入经济发展滞后,社会问题突出.生态环境不断恶化以及资源快速耗竭的困境,成为实际意义上的不可持续的国家或地区,不只是经济上的不可持续,此即本文所主张的广义"资源诅咒"的理论内涵.     

中国油气资源城市“资源诅咒”效应实证

油气资源城市是我国资源型城市的重要组成部分,其高速、稳定的发展对我国全面建成小康社会起着至关重要的作用,开展油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应研究有助于为其经济发展实践提供科学的理论指导。本文以资源产业依赖度与经济增长的关系为切入点,重新定义"资源诅咒"假说,根据相关文献的回顾评述和历史数据的统计观察,提出油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应的两个假说,选取1997-2012年10座典型油气资源城市的面板数据作为研究样本,构建经济增长计量模型,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业依赖度与经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业依赖度的参数估计值先正后负,说明我国油气资源城市存在"资源诅咒"效应,资源产业依赖对其经济增长存在先促进后抑制的关联关系,即两者之间存在倒U型曲线关系;2在模型分布估计中,物质资本的投入会影响资源产业依赖度对经济增长参数估计的显著性,而个体与私营经济的发展和较高的对外开放程度会使资源产业依赖的抑制作用变得不显著,说明资源产业依赖度对油气资源城市经济增长的抑制效应是间接的、可弱化的,其中物质资本投资是"资源诅咒"效应产生的主要诱因,而个体与私营经济发展和对外开放程度是规避"资源诅咒"的关键因素。根据研究结果,优化配置油气资源城市物质资本投入、完善城市动态混合所有制结构、合理设定城市对外开放程度是破解油气资源城市"资源诅咒"效应的有效方式。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.