Hydrogen and transportation: alternative scenarios

If hydrogen (H₂) is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use, it needs to displace conventional transport fuels and be produced in ways that do not generate significant greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses alternative ways H₂ can be produced, transported and used to achieve these goals. Several H₂ scenarios are developed and compared to each other. In addition, other technology options to achieve these goals are analyzed. A full fuel cycle analysis is used to compare the energy use and carbon (C) emissions of different fuel and vehicle strategies. Fuel and vehicle costs are presented as well as cost-effectiveness estimates. Lowest hydrogen fuel costs are achieved using fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The fuel supply cost for a H₂ fuel cell car would be close to those for an advanced gasoline car, once a large-scale supply system has been established. Biomass, wind, nuclear and solar sources are estimated to be considerably more expensive. However fuel cells cost much more than combustion engines. When vehicle costs are considered, climate policy incentives are probably insufficient to achieve a switch to H₂. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation cost would amount to several hundred US$ per ton of CO₂. Energy security goals and the eventual need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations could be sufficient. Nonetheless, substantial development of related technologies, such as C capture and storage will be needed. Significant H₂ use will also require substantial market intervention during a transition period when there are too few vehicles to motivate widely available H₂ refueling.

The adequacy of GWPs as indicators of damage costsincurred by global warming

This article looks at the ability of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) towork as indicators of equivalence for temperature development and damagecosts. We look at two abatement scenarios that are equivalent when using100-year GWPs: one scenario reduces short-lived gases, mainly methane(CH₄); the other scenario reduces carbon dioxide (CO₂).Despite their equivalence in terms of CO₂ equivalents, the scenariosdo not result in equal rates or levels of temperature change. The disparitiescontinue as we move further down the chain of causality toward damagecosts, measured either in terms of rate of climate change or level of climatechange. Compared to the CH₄ mitigation scenario, the CO₂mitigation scenario gives present value costs 1.3 and 1.5 times higher forlevel- and rate-dependent damage costs, respectively, assuming a discountrate of 3%. We also test the GWPs for other time horizons and theconclusions remain the same; using GWP as an index to reflect equivalentclimate effects and damage costs from emissions is questionable.     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期评价及关键参数对比

发展氢燃料电池汽车被认为是解决能源安全和环境污染问题的理想解决方案之一,为量化探究氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的化石能源消耗和排放情况,运用GaBi软件建模,以新能源汽车相关技术路线为参考,构建我国氢燃料电池汽车动力系统的数据清单并对其全生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值情况进行定量评价计算和预测分析,对不同类型的双极板、不同能量控制策略和不同制氢方式对环境的影响分别进行了对比研究,并对关键数据进行了不确定分析.结果表明,预计到2030年我国每台氢燃料电池汽车动力系统生命周期的化石能源消耗量（ADP_f）、全球变暖潜值（GWP,以CO₂ eq计）和酸化潜值（AP,以SO₂ eq计）分别为1.35×10⁵ MJ、9108 kg和15.79 kg.动力系统生产制造阶段的化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值均高于使用阶段,主要原因是燃料电池堆栈和储氢罐的制造过程.金属双极板、石墨复合双极板和石墨双极板的制造工艺中石墨复合双极板的综合环境效益最好.能量控制策略的优化会使得氢能消耗降低,当氢能消耗降低22.8%时,动力系统的生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值分别降低10.4%和8.3%.相比于甲烷蒸气重整制氢,基于混合电网电解水制氢的动力系统生命周期全球变暖潜值高出53.7%[KG-*6],而基于水电电解水制氢降低39.6%.降低动力系统生命周期化石能源消耗和全球变暖潜值的措施包括优化能量控制策略降低氢能消耗、规模化发展可再生能源发电电解水制氢产业和聚焦突破燃料电池堆栈关键技术实现性能提升.     

Future bioenergy trade in the EU: modelling trading options from a cost-effectiveness perspective

The purpose of this paper is to analyse under what conditions, with respect to CO₂ emission-reduction and biofuels-for-transport targets, the trading in the EU of CO₂ credits and solid and/or liquid biofuels is cost-effective from the perspective of an optimisation energy systems model. We use the PEEP model covering the EU27 (except Bulgaria, Malta, and Cyprus) to generate insights about the cost-effectiveness of different options under different policy scenarios. Trade in CO₂ credits is a cost-effective option, in all relevant policy scenarios. Trade in some biofuels (mainly from central and eastern European countries to the EU15) is cost-effective in all assessed scenarios. In the case of CO₂ targets (whether national or at the EU level) there is trade in solid biofuels. When biofuels-for-transport targets are also implemented, trading both solid and liquid biofuels is cost-effective.     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃^--eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

Utilization of Bagasse Energy in Thailand

Bagasse, a biomass fuel, is the waste generated by the sugar-making process from sugar cane. Sugar making is one of the most important agricultural-produce processing industries for developing countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. As sugar producing plants need electric power and process steam, co-generation using bagasse as an alternate fuel for petroleum has been in use for some time. Thailand recently became one of the largest sugar exporters by enlarging plant capacities and improving equipment, thus reducing its production cost. In addition, the Thai government promotes power generation using bagasse as a means to combat global warming by raising the purchase price of the surplus power. The industry is in the process of further raising the plant capacity, and improving the power-generating efficiency. This will enable a plant to generate more electric power than its in-plant need so that the surplus power can be sold to the commercial grid. It also plans to become a local power supplier during off-season of sugar making by adding a condensing turbine generator. A typical Thai sugar plant of the latest design generates steam of 4Mpa at the bagasse boiler outlet with the temperature of 400°C at 84% boiler efficiency. With the bagasse LHV of 7,540 kJ/kg and that of fuel oil 41, 840 kJ/kg, and taking 90%as oil-burning boiler efficiency, 5.95 kg of bagasse would replace 1 kg of oil. The Kyoto Mechanism defines CO₂ generation by fuel oil as 2.65 kg per liter. Using 0.85for the specific gravity of fuel oil, the amount of CO₂ generation will be 3.12 kg-CO₂/kg. Therefore, CO₂reduction per ton of bagasse in terms of fuel oil will be: 3.12/5.95 =0.524 kg-CO₂/kg-bagasse. As 1 kg of bagasse generates 2 kg of steam, the CO₂reduction of a 100t/h steam boiler will be112,660 ton/year for an annual operation of4,300 hours, as follows. 0.524 × 100/2 = 26.2 t-CO₂/h, 26.2 × 4,300 =112,660 t-CO₂/year. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The holistic impact of integrated solid waste management on greenhouse gas emissions in Phuket

Continually increasing amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) and the limited capacity of the existing waste management system in Phuket have led to the consideration of integrated waste management system (IWMS). Life cycle assessment (LCA) was employed to compare the greenhouse gas emissions expressed as global warming potential (GWP) of the existing waste management system (the base scenario) and other three IWMSs for Phuket MSW. Besides incineration and landfilling, the proposed scenarios include 30% source separation for recycling (scenario 2), anaerobic digestion (scenario 3) and both (scenario 4).The functional unit is set as 1 t of Phuket MSW treated. Results from the impact assessment of the base scenario shows that the net GWP is 1006 kg CO₂ equivalent. Landfilling contributes to the highest potentials of this impact. The results from a holistic comparison show that scenario 4 is the best option among all the scenarios, contributing GWP of 415 kg CO₂ eq., whereas the base scenario is the worst. The emission of greenhouse gas from landfilling is reduced by the introduction of landfill gas recovery and utilization for electricity production. By assumption, 50% recovery of landfill gas leads to the GWP reduction around 58% by total GWP of landfilling and 36% by the net GWP of the whole system in the base scenario. The study suggests that a policy that promotes source separation should be pursued, preferably combined with the application of landfill gas recovery for electricity. Policy promoting recycling is favorable over anaerobic digestion in the situation that both treatment systems could not be established at the same time. The major conclusion from the study is that results from the LCA can support Phuket Municipality for decision-making with respect to planning and optimizing IWMS. It can benefit other municipalities or policy makers to apply in their waste management projects.     

Estimating carbon supply curves from afforestation of agricultural land in the Northeastern U.S.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for the northeastern states of the U.S. allows for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration offsets generated by afforestation activities only. This paper estimates the maximum potential quantity and associated costs of increasing the storage of carbon by afforestation of existing agricultural land in the 11 states of the Northeast United States. The focus of the work was to describe location, the quantity, and at what cost it would be economically attractive to shift agricultural production to afforestation to increase carbon storage in the region. Widely available data sets were used to (1) identify spatially-explicit areas for lower costs carbon offsets and (2) estimate carbon supply curves related to afforestation of agricultural land over three time periods (10, 20, and 40 years). Carbon accumulation and total carbon offset project costs were estimated at a county scale and combined to identify expected costs per ton of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂e). Large variation in estimated costs per ton of CO₂e are driven by varying carbon accumulation potentials and opportunity costs of taking land out of agricultural production, as well as the duration of the project activity. Results show that the lowest cost carbon offset projects will be in certain counties of Maine, Vermont, and New York. Pasture land, with lower opportunity costs, generally presents the opportunity for lower cost carbon offset projects relative to cropland. This analysis estimates that afforestation of pasture land in the northeast will not become economically attractive until the price rises above 10 per metric tonne (MT) CO < sub > 2 < /sub > e and that up to 583 million MT could be economically sequestered if the price were to rise to10 per metric tonne (MT) CO₂e and that up to 583 million MT could be economically sequestered if the price were to rise to 50 per MT CO₂e, based on a 40-year project life. With regard to cropland in the northeast, afforestation does not become economically advantageous for land owners until the price rises above $40 per MT CO₂e. It is estimated that up to 487,000 MT could be sequestered from cropland if the price were to rise to $40 per MT CO₂e. It is estimated that up to 487,000 MT could be sequestered from cropland if the price were to rise to 50 per MT CO₂e, based on a 40-year project life.     

Modern Biomass Conversion Technologies

This article gives an overview of the state-of-the-art of key biomass conversion technologies currently deployed and technologies that may play a key role in the future, including possible linkage to CO₂ capture and sequestration technology (CCS). In doing so, special attention is paid to production of biofuels for the transport sector, because this is likely to become the key emerging market for large-scale sustainable biomass use. Although the actual role of bio-energy will depend on its competitiveness with fossil fuels and on agricultural policies worldwide, it seems realistic to expect that the current contribution of bio-energy of 40–55 EJ per year will increase considerably. A range from 200 to 300 EJ may be observed looking well into this century, making biomass a more important energy supply option than mineral oil today. A key issue for bio-energy is that its use should be modernized to fit into a sustainable development path. Especially promising are the production of electricity via advanced conversion concepts (i.e. gasification and state-of-the-art combustion and co-firing) and modern biomass derived fuels like methanol, hydrogen and ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass, which can reach competitive cost levels within 1–2 decades (partly depending on price developments with petroleum). Sugar cane based ethanol production already provides a competitive biofuel production system in tropical regions and further improvements are possible. Flexible energy systems, in which biomass and fossil fuels can be used in combination, could be the backbone for a low risk, low cost and low carbon emission energy supply system for large scale supply of fuels and power and providing a framework for the evolution of large scale biomass raw material supply systems. The gasification route offers special possibilities to combine this with low cost CO₂ capture (and storage), resulting in concepts that are both flexible with respect to primary fuel input as well as product mix and with the possibility of achieving zero or even negative carbon emissions. Prolonged RD&D efforts and biomass market development, consistent policy support and international collaboration are essential to achieve this.     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃⁻-eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

CO2-emission reduction costs for petroleum refineries in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish petroleum refineries have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made. Abatement measures possible to implement within the next 5–6 years at Shell refinery Gothenburg corresponding to a 8% reduction, and at Preemraff Lysekil corresponding to 22% of the estimated fossil CO₂ emissions in 2010 have been included. Many of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the companies if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.     

Deep Geological CO2 Storage: Principles Reviewed, and Prospecting for Bio-energy Disposal Sites

The principles of hydrocarbon exploration and production provide well-established and tested principles and technologies to investigate storage of fluids in the subsurface. CO₂ can be stored in the subsurface using settings of: (A) thick permeable coal seams; (B) depleted oil and gas fields; (C) saline aquifers of regional extent, with an overlying seal. The North Sea Sleipner project shows that CO₂ can be injected into the pore space of deep geological aquifers deeper than 800 m at 1 Mt/yr, using established technology. Suitable sediment sequences of saline aquifers exist in all hydrocarbon-producing areas, are volumetrically much larger than exploited oil and gas fields, and hold the potential to easily store all worldwide CO₂ emissions until 2050. Geological principles are established to assess entire continents for candidate sites of CO₂ storage. This shows that opportunity may be widespread, but needs more specific local investigations. Onshore sub-Saharan Africa is considered the most problematic region – but even here there are potentially viable sediment sequences. No demonstration projects currently exist for CO₂ capture and storage using small-scale onshore facilities. A simple estimate, assuming CO₂ value of $20 per ton, suggests that single boreholes onshore may be viable over 20 years with supply rates of 100,000 ton CO₂ per year. In principle, atmospheric CO₂ could be captured by cultivated biomass, and co-fired in existing power stations. Or energy crops could be grown, CO₂ to be used, and stored deep below ground, in a country distant from an original fossil-fuel CO₂ emission site.     

Carbon Dioxide Balance of Wood Substitution: Comparing Concrete- and Wood-Framed Buildings

In this study a method is suggested to compare the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from the construction of concrete- and wood-framed buildings. The method is then applied to two buildings in Sweden and Finland constructed with wood frames, compared with functionally equivalent buildings constructed with concrete frames. Carbon accounting includes: emissions due to fossil fuel use in the production of building materials; the replacement of fossil fuels by biomass residues from logging, wood processing, construction and demolition; carbon stock changes in forests and buildings; and cement process reactions. The results show that wood-framed construction requires less energy, and emits less CO₂ to the atmosphere, than concrete-framed construction. The lifecycle emission difference between the wood- and concrete-framed buildings ranges from 30 to 130 kg C per m² of floor area. Hence, a net reduction of CO₂ emission can be obtained by increasing the proportion of wood-based building materials, relative to concrete materials. The benefits would be greatest if the biomass residues resulting from the production of the wood building materials were fully used in energy supply systems. The carbon mitigation efficiency, expressed in terms of biomass used per unit of reduced carbon emission, is considerably better if the wood is used to replace concrete building material than if the wood is used directly as biofuel.     

含氧生物质燃料的生命周期评价

为公正评价汽车代用燃料的能耗与环境效益,运用生命周期评价方法,研究了在燃料中分别添加不同比例的乙醇和甲酯2种生物质,带来的生命周期能耗和污染物排放变化,并对含氧生物质燃料的未来情景进行了预测分析.结果表明:乙醇代用燃料未降低化石燃料消耗,甲酯代用燃料可降低约20%的化石燃料消耗;几种配比的代用燃料均可降低石油消耗,甲酯代用燃料降低的趋势更加明显;各种代用燃料的温室气体排放都比较严重;乙醇代用燃料增加了NO_x排放,而甲酯代用燃料可降低约50%的NO_x排放;乙醇和甲酯的加入均能降低车用阶段的PM₁₀排放;燃料生产阶段的SO₂排放在整个生命周期中约占80%,必须严格控制;甲酯代用燃料可降低VOC排放.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Mitigation Options for Enteric Methane Emissions from Dairy Animals: An Evaluation for Potential CDM Projects in India

Enteric fermentation in livestock is an important source of anthropogenic methane emission. India, with its large livestock population, is estimated to contribute 10.8 Tg of methane annually from this source. An evaluation of various methane mitigation options indicate that some of the available technologies like, diet supplementation with feed additive and molasses urea product are highly cost effective in reducing enteric methane emissions. The gross cost of methane abatement from use of feed additive monensin premix ranges from €0.6 to €1.8/ton CO₂ equivalent, for buffaloes and indigenous cows, respectively. The gross cost of enteric methane mitigation from supplementing molasses urea products and dietary manipulation through increased concentrate feeding is much higher. But, as the monetary value of the increased milk production on application of these technologies was higher than the annual cost of reduction strategy for buffaloes and crossbred cows, the net costs of the former mitigation option was negative for buffaloes (€-28.1/ton CO₂) and of the latter for crossbred cows (€-7.0/ton CO₂,). The availability of cost-effective technologies suggest that the methane mitigation projects under CDM, can be planned in the Indian dairy sector to the mutual benefit of countries with emission targets and India. The vast dairy animal population of India and resulting methane emissions provide good opportunity these countries to buy reasonable quantum of emission credits from projects in India. Such projects will work to the benefit to India by providing a tool for technology transfer to increase animal productivity and attract capital that assists in more prosperous and environmental friendly milk production in the country.     

Quantifying and managing regional greenhouse gas emissions：Waste sector of Daejeon, Korea

A credible accounting of national and regional inventories for the greenhouse gas （GHG） reduction has emerged as one of the most significant current discussions. This article assessed the regional GHG emissions by three categories of the waste sector in Daejeon Metropolitan City （DMC）, Korea, examined the potential for DMC to reduce GHG emission, and discussed the methodology modified from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Korea national guidelines. During the last five years, DMC＇s overall GHG emissions were 239 thousand tons C02 eq./year from eleven public environmental infrastructure facilities, with a population of 1.52 million. Of the three categories, solid waste treatment/disposal contributes 68%, whilst wastewater treatment and others contribute 22% and 10% respectively. Among GHG unit emissions per ton of waste treatment, the biggest contributor was waste incineration of 694 kg CO2 eq./ton, followed by waste disposal of 483 kg CO2 eq./ton, biological treatment of solid waste of 209 kg CO2 eq./ton, wastewater treatment of 0.241 kg CO2 eq./m3, and public water supplies of 0.067 kg CO2 eq./m3. Furthermore, it is suggested that the potential in reducing GHG emissions from landfill process can be as high as 47.5% by increasing landfill gas recovery up to 50%. Therefore, it is apparent that reduction strategies for the main contributors of GHG emissions should take precedence over minor contributors and lead to the best practice for managing GHGs abatement.     

CO2 emission reduction costs for iron ore-based steelmaking in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish iron-ore based steelmaking in Sweden have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made.Two different abatement options, based on previously implemented measures at SSAB Oxelösund as well as some future measures that could be implemented at the company by 2010, have been investigated. The first option corresponds to a CO₂ emission reduction of 6.5% and the second to a 13% reduction. The abatement measure with the largest reduction potential is dependent on natural gas being available at SSAB Oxelösund by 2010, which is not certain.Several of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the company if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel demand and solar energy conversion efficiency in European bioethanol production for automotive purposes

Crop derived biofuels such as (bio)ethanol are increasingly applied for automotive purposes. They have, however, a relatively low efficiency in converting solar energy into automotive power. The outcome of life cycle studies concerning ethanol as to fossil fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with such inputs depend strongly on the assumptions made regarding e.g. allocation, inclusion of upstream processes and estimates of environmentally relevant in- and outputs. Peer reviewed studies suggest that CO₂ emissions linked to life cycle fossil fuel input are typically about 2.1–3.0 kg CO₂ kg⁻¹ starch-derived ethanol. When biofuel production involves agricultural practices that are common in Europe there are net losses of carbon from soil and emissions of the greenhouse gas N₂O. Dependent on choices regarding allocation, they may, for wheat (starch) be in the order of 0.6–2.5 kg CO₂ equivalent kg⁻¹ of ethanol. This makes ethanol derived from starch, or sugar crops, in Europe still less attractive for mitigating climate change. In case of wheat, changes in agricultural practice may reduce or reverse carbon loss from soils. When biofuel production from crops leads to expansion of cropland while reducing forested areas or grassland, added impetus will be given to climate change.