基于LCOE模型的光伏发电经济效益分析:以宜昌农村地区光伏扶贫电站项目为例

光伏发电是我国重要的清洁能源发展战略,也是资产收益扶贫的重要方式.为了探讨光伏发电项目对政策的依赖性及其在经济上的可持续性,采用平准化度电成本（LCOE）模型开展研究,并开发出平准化度电净现值（LNPVE）模型用于研究光伏发电项目的长期经济效益及其影响因素.将上网电价与补贴作为效益指标引入LCOE模型,即得到LNPVE,LNPVE为折现度电收入和折现度电成本之差.LNPVE模型不仅能将政策因素引入经济效益分析中,同时还能考虑效益变动,从而分析光伏发电项目的经济可持续性.以宜昌市长阳土家族自治县渔峡口镇村级光伏扶贫电站项目为案例的分析表明,从LCOE模型结果来看,案例项目能够实现经济效益;然而从LNPVE模型结果来看,现行补贴上网电价下案例项目的长期经济效益仍存在不确定性,且这种不确定性随着光伏发电上网电价补贴“退坡”政策的出台而有所强化.敏感性分析结果表明,影响案例项目经济效益的首要因素是技术因素,其次是政策因素,再者是经济因素.若案例项目以无补贴标杆电价平价上网,则需将单位造价降低19.3%或者年利用小时数提高14.8%;若要进一步实现以燃煤发电上网电价平价上网,则需将单位造价降低97.0%或者年利用小时数提高182.1%.因此,应当针对光伏发电特别是村级光伏扶贫项目实施必要的电价补贴,将补贴“退坡”与提高光伏发电效率相结合,并将有针对性地提高补贴效率作为光伏电价补贴的重点,同时高度重视技术改进及推广应用和运营维护的成本降低及质量提高,以持续实现光伏发电项目的经济效益.      

Modern Biomass Conversion Technologies

This article gives an overview of the state-of-the-art of key biomass conversion technologies currently deployed and technologies that may play a key role in the future, including possible linkage to CO₂ capture and sequestration technology (CCS). In doing so, special attention is paid to production of biofuels for the transport sector, because this is likely to become the key emerging market for large-scale sustainable biomass use. Although the actual role of bio-energy will depend on its competitiveness with fossil fuels and on agricultural policies worldwide, it seems realistic to expect that the current contribution of bio-energy of 40–55 EJ per year will increase considerably. A range from 200 to 300 EJ may be observed looking well into this century, making biomass a more important energy supply option than mineral oil today. A key issue for bio-energy is that its use should be modernized to fit into a sustainable development path. Especially promising are the production of electricity via advanced conversion concepts (i.e. gasification and state-of-the-art combustion and co-firing) and modern biomass derived fuels like methanol, hydrogen and ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass, which can reach competitive cost levels within 1–2 decades (partly depending on price developments with petroleum). Sugar cane based ethanol production already provides a competitive biofuel production system in tropical regions and further improvements are possible. Flexible energy systems, in which biomass and fossil fuels can be used in combination, could be the backbone for a low risk, low cost and low carbon emission energy supply system for large scale supply of fuels and power and providing a framework for the evolution of large scale biomass raw material supply systems. The gasification route offers special possibilities to combine this with low cost CO₂ capture (and storage), resulting in concepts that are both flexible with respect to primary fuel input as well as product mix and with the possibility of achieving zero or even negative carbon emissions. Prolonged RD&D efforts and biomass market development, consistent policy support and international collaboration are essential to achieve this.     

Electricity price subsidy or carbon-trading subsidy: which is more efficient to develop photovoltaic power generation from a government perspective?

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has high investment costs and long payback periods. Therefore, during early deployment, subsidies are fundamental and necessary to accelerate its development. We consider the question of how to promote PV industry development and which supporting policy is more efficient in accelerating adoption. Based on real options method, we establish a subsidy efficiency model for electricity price subsidies and carbon-trading subsidies under two sources of uncertainty power demand for PV and the investment cost-reduction probability. This study aims to compare the two forms of subsidies from the perspective of promoting immediate investment and maximizing the subsidy policy efficiency for the government (minimizing the unit carbon-mitigation cost) and advance relevant policy proposals. An example of China is provided to test the effectiveness of the model and to illustrate the implications of the solutions. The results show that a carbon-trading subsidy is better than an electricity price subsidy and that it is essential to improve the demand for the power produced by the PV power-generation projects. Lower market risk and driving technology progress are both conducive to improving the subsidy efficiency. This study also provides a meaningful reference for governments worldwide to formulate subsidy programs to support PV power-generation projects.     

Technology development and cost analysis of multiple pollutant abatement for ultra-low emission coal-fired power plants in China

The implementation of ultra-low emission (ULE) limits (SO₂: 35 mg/m³, NOx: 50 mg/m³, PM: 10 mg/m³) promoted the development of flue gas treatment technologies in China. Pollutant control technology development for Chinese coal-fired power plants was summarized and an analysis of the applicability and cost of pollutant control technologies was conducted. Detailed data were collected from 30 ultra-low emission coal-fired units across China. Based on a cost analysis model, the average unit power generation incremental costs were 0.0144 and 0.0095 CNY/(kW·hr) for SO₂ and NOx control technologies, respectively. The unit power generation incremental cost of twin spray tower technology was 7.2% higher than that of dual-loop spray tower technology. The effect of key parameters on operating cost was analyzed. The unit power generation incremental cost increased because of increments in the electricity price for SO₂ control technology and the price of the reductant in NOx control technology. With high sulfur content or NOx concentration, the unit power generation incremental cost caused by pollutant control increased, whereas the unit pollutant abatement cost decreased. However, the annual operating hours or load increased, thereby leading to a decline in unit power generation incremental cost and unit pollutant abatement cost.     

海上深水区风电场并网的空间布局优化——以粤东地区为例

海上深水区风电场具有水深深、离岸远、规模大的特点,其并网空间布局的合理规划直接关系到投资成本和用海效率,而现有研究多停留于二维平面,精度有待提高。从风电汇集至岛屿再送出的设想出发,建立深水区风电场并网的三维空间布局优化设计模型,以粤东深水区风电场为例进行分析。研究表明：（1）深水区风电场并网需要考虑海底地形因素,尽管研究范围坡度很小,优化方案的电缆总长度还比二维平面计算结果长约5%;（2）汇集输电的方式能有效减少用海面积、降低总投资成本,其中征海面积、总投资成本减幅最大均可达65%;（3）不同输电方式的电缆成本越低,空间布局越接近以岛屿为中心的辐射状,随岛屿数量增加区别逐渐减小,220 kV交流、500 kV交流、±320 kV直流电缆成本依次减小,1个岛屿时对应方案的岛屿与汇集中心距离分别为38 km、27 km、9 km,4个岛屿时分别降至19 km、19 km、5 km。     

Potential of surplus biomass gasifier based power generation: A case study of an Indian state Rajasthan

Facing the finiteness of fossil fuels and its associated environmental problems, new prospects to cover energy demand are urgently required. Energy from surplus biomass can support an essential contribution to a sustainable energy generation. This paper deals with a case study of surplus biomass available in the Indian state Rajasthan. About 1275 MW electrical power is possible to generate through biomass gasifier based power generation plant through surplus biomass available in Rajasthan. About 1656 tonnes of CO₂ can be saved annually by installation of 1 MW biomass gasifier based power plant. The techno economic parameter like net present worth, cost benefit ratio and pay back period are also carried out for this route of power generation and these are about 1.18 million US$, 1.42 and 8 years and 2 months respectively.     

Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

固定化细胞技术处理含酚废水的研究

固定化细胞技术的关键是所用载体材料的性能。本文力求寻找一种价格低、寿命长、效率高的载体。通过同一菌种在固定状态和游离状态降解含酚废水的实验对比，证明红砖碎粒是一种优良的载体材料。利用正交实验，确定了该菌种在固定时的最佳运行条件。并对游离细胞和固定细胞降解苯酚的过程进行了动力学分析。结果表明，在两种情况下，该菌种降解苯酚的过程均符合Ｍｏｎｏｄ模型。     

农业生物质炭固碳潜力及经济效益分析——以山西省为例

随着温室气体减排和低碳发展的要求,生物质炭作为农业固碳的新型技术引起人们的关注。固碳潜力评价和经济效益分析是生物质炭规模化开发利用的基础。论文利用“生物质资源—固碳潜力—经济效益”集成评估方法,以山西省为研究区域,估算了农业生物质的固碳潜力和经济效益。结果显示：山西省3种生物质资源（农作物秸秆、禽畜粪便和作物加工副产品）的固碳总潜力为1 228.10×10⁴ t CO₂当量,约占2014年山西省全年碳排放总量的2.5%。在2014年碳均价和碳高价情形下,农作物秸秆和作物加工副产品实现了正效益,每t原料综合效益分别为8.09和21.79元。全年3种生物质炭固碳综合效益为0.44×10⁸~2.80×10⁸元,证实了山西省生物质固碳技术的经济可行性。     

宁夏地区线路工程造价分析与环境保护研究

以2012年-2016年宁夏地区竣工投产的各电压等级线路工程的详实数据为基础,分析各电压等级线路工程近五年造价水平变化趋势。从量、价、技术因素和建设条件四个层次分析了单位造价产生波动的原因,同时,由于线路工程在施工的过程中会对周围的环境产生一定的影响,所以国家对环境保护的要求也越来越严格,因此还研究梳理了宁夏地区线路工程中环境评价影响因素分析与环境保护措施,为公司投资决策和管理提供重要依据,同时也促进电力行业的有效发展。     

大伙房水库上游地区生态系统服务功能价值评估

运用市场价值法、机会成本法、影子价格法、费用分析法、影子工程法、旅行费用法和替代花费法对大伙房水库上游地区生态系统服务功能价值进行评估,计算得到研究区生态系统服务功能总价值为127亿元/a,其中物质生产价值22.502亿元/a,大气调节价值38.93亿元/a,水分调节价值19.923亿元/a,环境净化价值24.373亿元/a,土壤保护价值8.624亿元/a,生物多样性维持价值12.647亿元/a。结果显示,研究区生态系统具有健全的生态服务功能,有效地达到了调节大气、涵养水源、防洪蓄洪、保持土壤等生态效益,有着极其重要的生态保护价值。     

大伙房水库上游地区森林生态系统服务功能价值评估

运用市场价值法、机会成本法、影子价格法、费用分析法、影子工程法、旅行费用法和替代花费法对大伙房水库上游地区森林生态系统服务功能价值进行评估,计算得到研究区森林生态系统服务功能总价值为101．07亿元／a,其中物质生产价值2．19亿元／a,大气调节价值33．93亿元／a,水分调节价值12亿元／a,环境净化价值23．66亿元／a,土壤保护价值8．62亿元／a,生物多样性维持价值12．17亿元／a,休闲文化价值8．49亿歹己／8。研究结果显示,研究区森林生态系统具有健全的生态服务功能,有效地达到了调节大气、涵养水源、防洪蓄洪、保持土壤等生态效益,有着极其重要的生态保护价值。     

我国稀土资源开发利用的环境成本及空间差异特征

稀土开发利用环境成本核算对于我国稀土定价机制改革具有重要参考价值.利用污染普查中的典型企业、稀土年鉴等多种数据源,基于环境治理成本法,核算了2013年我国三大稀土矿区冶炼污染物产生量及环境治理成本（注:涉及"全国"的各要素范围均未包含港澳台地区）,并分析了其空间分布特征.结果表明:① 我国稀土冶炼污染物空间分布特征为北方包头混合型稀土矿以大气污染为主,南方离子型稀土矿以水污染为主,尤其是氨氮污染严重. ② 2013年,我国稀土冶炼环境成本总计为28729×104元,其中废水、废气和固体废物的环境成本分别为49.8%、19.0%和31.2%.我国稀土冶炼环境成本92.9%集中在北方轻稀土矿区,7.1%在南方离子型稀土矿区. ③ 我国稀土冶炼环境代价高,尤其是北方轻稀土矿.包头混合型矿单位稀土氧化物冶炼的环境成本为4135元/t,占氧化铈和氧化镧市场价格的38.8%和41.4%左右,南方离子型稀土矿单位稀土氧化物冶炼的环境成本为2824元/t,占氧化钇市场价格10.9%.      

退耕还林工程对四川盆周低山丘陵区生态系统服务价值的影响——以洪雅县为例

退耕还林工程是我国实施的重点林业生态工程。以四川盆周低山丘陵区退耕还林工程重点示范县洪雅县为研究对象,基于遥感和地理信息系统技术,参照中国陆地生态系统单位面积生态系统服务价值当量表,结合研究区粮食平均产量和收购价格,分析了退耕还林前(1994-1999年)、后(1999-2007年)的生态系统服务价值变化,探讨了退耕还林工程对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明:退耕还林工程在一定程度上使土地利用程度呈减弱趋势,土地利用处于衰退阶段;退耕前,生态系统服务价值变化不明显;退耕后,生态系统服务价值发生显著变化,总生态系统服务价值增加2.90×10⁸元,可能是由于退耕还林使耕地生态系统服务价值降低,林地生态系统服务价值增加;各项生态功能服务价值中,食物生产功能价值下降,其它各项功能价值上升,以水源涵养功能上升最大,水源涵养价值增加0.78×10⁸元;敏感性分析表明,研究区生态系统服务价值对生态系统服务价值系数变化缺乏弹性,研究结果具有稳定性。     

Carbon accounting of material substitution with biomass: Case studies for Austria investigated with IPCC default and alternative approaches

There is evidence that the replacement of carbon-intensive products with bio-based substitutes (‘material substitution with biomass’) can be highly efficient in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on two case studies (CS1/2) for Austria, potential benefits of material substitution in comparison to fuel substitution are analysed. GHG savings are calculated according to default IPCC approaches (Tier 2 method assuming first-order decay) and with more realistic approaches based on distribution functions. In CS1, high savings are achieved by using wood residues for the production of insulating boards instead of energy. The superiority of material substitution is due to the establishment of a long-term carbon storage, the high emission factor of wood in comparison to natural gas and higher efficiencies of gas-fired facilities.The biomass feedstock in CS2 is lignocellulosic ethanol being used for bio-ethylene production (material substitution) or replacing gasoline (fuel substitution). GHG savings are mainly due to lower production emissions of bio-ethylene in comparison to conventional ethylene and significantly lower than in CS1 (per unit of biomass consumed). While CS1 is highly robust to parameter variation, the long-term projections in CS2 are quite speculative.To create adequate incentives for including material substitution in national climate strategies, shortcomings of current default accounting methods must be addressed. Under current methods the GHG savings in both case studies would not (fully) materialize in the national GHG inventory. The main reason is that accounting of wood products is confined to the proportion derived from domestic harvest, whereas imported biomass used for energy is treated as carbon-neutral. Further inadequacies of IPCC default accounting methods include the assumption of exponential decay and the disregard of advanced bio-based products.     

旅行成本法在我国应用中存在的几个问题

我国旅行成本法案例研究多数未分清旅行成本与旅游目的地本身价格的关系,推导的游憩需求曲线是旅行成本-旅游人次模型,而不是旅游目的地本身的价格-旅游人次需求曲线。文章具体说明了区域旅行成本法的基本原理及操作方法,并用乔光华文章数据重新对达里诺尔国家级自然保护区游憩价值进行计算,对旅行成本的构成等问题进行了讨论,得出其消费者剩余为0.9221×108元a/,比原研究中的0.0937×108元a/高出近10倍。认为乔光华等的研究在推断游憩需求曲线时存在方法上的问题,直接将旅行成本和时间价值作为游憩价值不符合旅行成本法的基本原理和公共物品无(或低)市场价格的经济理论。还对调整后的旅行成本数据进行了计算,得到保护区游憩价值为1.3581×108元a/。     

2021年辽东湾东部核电站冷源取水区风险生物监测

本文通过2021年3月—11月辽东湾东部核电站冷源取水区附近海域和鼓型滤网反冲洗的风险生物监测数据,分析了大型藻类、大型水母以及反冲洗的生物量状况,并结合2018—2020年的资料,探讨了大型藻类、大型水母的变化趋势,确定其高风险期。2021年的监测结果显示,大型藻类的生物量在5月中下旬至7月底处于高峰期;海月水母（A...     

基于控制单元的农村生活污水处理优化模型

基于系统动力学(SD)模拟模型和Powell优化模型,建立了农村生活污水污染物削减量与治理费用的SD-Powell模拟优化耦合模型,该模型可模拟预测污染物排放量,建立污染物削减量与治理费用函数关系.在此基础上,以污水治理费用最小为目标,以污水处理量为约束条件,对区域污染物削减量进行空间优化,得到最小治理费用下的最大污染物削减量.以常州市为例进行实证分析,模拟结果显示,2020年常州市农村生活污水COD和NH3-N排放量将达到16583t和2551t,分别比2008年增长4.60%和4.59%.采用聚类方法将常州市51个乡镇划分为4类控制单元,得到4类地区COD、NH3-N治理费用函数.各单位治理资金削减量存在明显差异,COD削减率的排序依次为:I类控制单元413kg/万元、IV类控制单元 380kg/万元、II类控制单元352kg/万元、III类控制单元348kg/万元,NH3-N削减率的排序依次为:III类控制单元65kg/万元、I类控制单元64kg/万元、IV类控制单元58kg/万元、II类控制单元54kg/万元,全区域削减率达到100%需要的治理费用约为16870万元.污染物削减空间优化结果显示,基于控制单元空间优化的削减效率高于平均分配的结果,治理费用在1000 -16870万元/a范围,COD、NH3-N的削减率分别提高6.4%和7.4%,4类地区的优先排序顺序依次为I类,IV类,II类和III类.     

Water pricing towards sustainability of water resources: a case study in Beijing

The role of water pricing for managing water resources is widely recognized in many areas of the world because of the increasing scarcity of water resources, a high competition between water uses and environmental degradation. Based on the analysis of cost of water, this paper explores which types of cost should be reflected in the water pricing enhancing the sustainability of water resources. The principle of full cost pricing in which the cost should include supply cost, opportunity cost and externalities is proposed as a means to achieve the sustainability of water resources. In a case study of Beijing, low water price is analyzed as one reason for unsustainable water consumption. Thus water pricing justified is necessary and pressing. It is proposed to justify water price in phased manner and eventually towards full cost pricing. The assessment of impacts on water resources by raising water price shows water pricing could alleviate the conflict between water supply and demand. This paper concludes that water pricing can play an effective role in enhancing the sustainability of water resources in Beijing.     

清洁生产审核在机械制造企业中的应用

清洁生产是企业实现可持续发展战略的必由之路,企业清洁生产审核是企业实施清洁生产的重要内容和有效工具。本文在对某机械制造企业进行清洁生产审核中,针对行业特点,结合企业自身情况,组织实施了3个中／高费方案和18无／低费方案,已实施方案每年可节电79．7万度,节约柴油10．1吨,节约工时费25．0万元,燃气费1．0万元,产生效益93．2万元,取得了良好的经济效益、环境效益和社会效益。