A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

It is desirable when drawing up a maritime traffic environmental project or a project for consolidating port and harbour facilities, that the safety of the maritime environment for shipping-traffic is assessed quantitatively, and that the rationale of a given project and the proposed safety measures are evaluated in an objective manner.In this report, the system flow and procedures to integrally assess the safety of the maritime traffic environment by systematically combining various simulation techniques are discussed first.Subsequently, the quantitative risk evaluation procedure for collisions of ships in waters with a high traffic density, among the assessment procedures above, and an outline of the shipping traffic flow simulation capable of reproducing ships′ movements, are described. In evaluating the results of simulations, a method introducing Subjective Judgement values (SJ-values) as indexes manifesting the subjective degree of danger felt by shiphandlers, is shown. The SJ-values were experimentally determined from simulator experiments using parameters representing the relation ship with other ships proceeding in the vicinity.Finally, some of the results of studies conducted for the recent construction of new LNG berths in Tokyo Bay are introduced as an example of practical safety assessment in this field.     

Sea transport safety — A challenge to European maritime society

Safety matters are boring, bothersome or just a cost factor. These are some of the arguments which prevent safety issues from being treated in the same way as, for example, transport logistics, i.e., rationally aiming at optimum results. National legal evolutions, resulting in distinct rules and regulations, are another handicap for a European approach to common marine safety standards. Political changes within the European Community offer a chance to create a marine safety system which complies with developments in shipping, operational practices, and requirements resulting from casualty investigations and statistics. The establishment of a European Marine Transport Safety Board under the umbrella of a European Transport Safety Board is proposed to mutually benefit from road, rail, air and sea transport knowledge.     

A new method to assess the deformations of internal organs of the abdomen during impact

Objectives: Due to limitations of classic imaging approaches, the internal response of abdominal organs is difficult to observe during an impact. Within the context of impact biomechanics for the protection of the occupant of transports, this could be an issue for human model validation and injury prediction.

Methods: In the current study, a previously developed technique (ultrafast ultrasound imaging) was used as the basis to develop a protocol to observe the internal response of abdominal organs in situ at high imaging rates. The protocol was applied to 3 postmortem human surrogates to observe the liver and the colon during impacts delivered to the abdomen.

Results: The results show the sensitivity of the liver motion to the impact location. Compression of the colon was also quantified and compared to the abdominal compression.

Conclusions: These results illustrate the feasibility of the approach. Further tests and comparisons with simulations are under preparation.     

习惯性违章行为导致事故的潜在性原因分析

1 习惯性违章行为导致事故的案例 2009年1月24日12时40分,某公司烧结车间中控通知该班作业长有4台烧结机白煤槽位下降快,该作业长马上组织人员破料.在和小修作业长处理皮带打滑过程中,小修作业长说通知气焊进行处理,并在皮带机头部研究方案.这时该作业长急于追槽位,便到皮带尾部取下撞锤上的三角带,打开北侧防护栏,将三角带塞进皮带尾轮滚筒后,便通知中控起车(皮带带速0.7 m/s),在靠近一步观察效果时不慎踩在三角带上,左脚被三角带勒在机架间隙里,导致左小腿骨折.经调查,确定事故原因是:     

A methodology for calculating sample size to assess localized corrosion of process components

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the required sample size to assess, with a specified precision, the localized corrosion of process components. The proposed methodology uses the extreme value and bootstrap methods. The results of estimated sample size ensure that the predicted maximum localized corrosion with the extreme value method is within an acceptable margin of error at a specified confidence level. Using the results of the proposed methodology, an equation is introduced to calculate sample size as a function of the acceptable margin of error, the population size, the standard deviation of corrosion data and the required confidence level. The probability of exceedance of critical limit of localized corrosion is also estimated. The methodology is explained through a case study of localized corrosion in process piping.     

钢筋混凝土矩形梁的当量耐火时间

为了正确评估钢筋混凝土矩形梁在实际火灾条件下的承载力,以一般室内火灾轰燃后的房间平均温度一时间曲线为火作用,以热传导和建筑结构耐火理论为基础,以梁在实际和标准火灾下的承载力相等为等效准则,用数值计算方法研究梁的当量耐火时间,并用最小二乘法导出其计算公式.火灾房间火灾荷载越大,开口因子越小,梁的当量耐火时间越长;反之越短.所给梁的当量耐火时间可用于建筑结构性能化耐火设计与评估:当火灾荷载密度较大,开口因子较小时加大梁的截面参数以获得安全性,反之,减小截面参数以获得经济性.     

Natech guide words: A new approach to assess and manage natech risk to ensure business continuity

The risk posed by natural hazards to the technological systems is known as Natech risk. It is different from the more widely known and studied risk posed by such sites to the environment and society. Though currently, available risk assessment techniques recognize Natech, the specific qualitative technique for Natech risk assessment and reduction has not yet been developed. After analyzing past data of Natech accidents, relevant guide words have been suggested in this study. These guide words will help anticipate Natech risk and visualize the Natech scenario. Once the Natech risk is identified, corresponding risk reduction measures can be taken to avoid possible Natech accidents and consequences.     

基于模糊决策的海上救助力量优选研究

为了提高海上人命救助的应急处置能力,提出了基于模糊决策理论的海上救助力量优选排序方法.首先,遴选出海上救助时派遣救助力量的评价指标,利用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重系数;其次,结合某一实际救助案例,利用加权评分法和模糊相似优先比决策两种方法进行救助力量的优选排序;最后,通过对比得出,两种方法的排序结果高度一致,与救助案例中各救助力量的调度过程也基本吻合,表明该方法能够很好地实现海事机构对于海上人命搜救工作救助力量选取的有效评估.     

Using data linkage to assess the impact of motorized recreational vehicle-related injuries in Ohio

Problem

Motorized recreational vehicle (MRV)-related injuries can result in severe medical and financial consequences. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology, and clinical and financial impact of MRV-related injuries in Ohio.

Method

Probabilistically linked statewide Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and hospital (inpatient and emergency department) data for 2003 and 2004 were examined. Record pairs with a MRV-related E-code (E821-E823, E825) were included in this study.

Results

There were 2,893 patients with MRV-related injuries, who had linked EMS and hospital records, resulting in more than $15 million in hospital charges and 1,921 inpatient days of hospitalization. The male-to-female ratio was nearly 4:1, and 19% were younger than 16. Almost 82% of cases were not wearing a helmet; there was a trend of decreasing helmet use with increasing age. Mean (SE) inpatient hospital charges and length of stay (LOS) were $22,218 ($1,290) and 3.8 (0.2) days, respectively. The mean (SE) Injury Severity Score (ISS) for inpatients was 9.2 (0.4). Individuals injured on a street/highway were 3.20 times more likely to sustain an ISS ≥ 16 (95% CI: 1.03, 9.88; p = 0.044) and 3.05 times more likely to sustain a traumatic brain injury (TBI) (95% CI: 1.17, 7.94; p = 0.024) than those who were injured at a place designated for sport or recreation. Children aged 12 to 15 and young adults aged 16 to 25 were 2.47 and 2.14 times more likely, respectively, to sustain a TBI than adults aged 36 or older (aged 12 to 15: 95% CI: 1.13, 5.38; p = 0.024; aged 16 to 25: 95% CI: 1.26, 3.64; p = 0.005). Higher ISS was associated with both higher total charges (p < 0.001) and longer LOS (p < 0.001).

Discussion

This study demonstrates that MRV-related injuries are an important public health problem in Ohio, with a substantial clinical and financial impact.

Impact on Industry

Enactment and enforcement of statewide MRV safety legislation and training of MRV users offer valuable opportunities to prevent these costly injuries.     

Perils of using speed zone data to assess real-world compliance to speed limits

Objective: Real-world driving studies, including those involving speeding alert devices and autonomous vehicles, can gauge an individual vehicle's speeding behavior by comparing measured speed with mapped speed zone data. However, there are complexities with developing and maintaining a database of mapped speed zones over a large geographic area that may lead to inaccuracies within the data set. When this approach is applied to large-scale real-world driving data or speeding alert device data to determine speeding behavior, these inaccuracies may result in invalid identification of speeding. We investigated speeding events based on service provider speed zone data.

Methods: We compared service provider speed zone data (Speed Alert by Smart Car Technologies Pty Ltd., Ultimo, NSW, Australia) against a second set of speed zone data (Google Maps Application Programming Interface [API] mapped speed zones).

Results: We found a systematic error in the zones where speed limits of 50–60 km/h, typical of local roads, were allocated to high-speed motorways, which produced false speed limits in the speed zone database. The result was detection of false-positive high-range speeding. Through comparison of the service provider speed zone data against a second set of speed zone data, we were able to identify and eliminate data most affected by this systematic error, thereby establishing a data set of speeding events with a high level of sensitivity (a true positive rate of 92% or 6,412/6,960).

Conclusions: Mapped speed zones can be a source of error in real-world driving when examining vehicle speed. We explored the types of inaccuracies found within speed zone data and recommend that a second set of speed zone data be utilized when investigating speeding behavior or developing mapped speed zone data to minimize inaccuracy in estimates of speeding.     

全球海事事故的时空与类别特征研究

以2006—2016年的全球海事事故数据为样本,运用数据挖掘技术和相关性分析方法对全球海事事故的时空与类别特征进行了识别。结果表明:南中国海、英国周边、地中海与黑海、东北亚等区域是全球海事事故的高发区,不同区域的事故类别特征存在较大差异;海事事故的数量、类别、严重程度与运输规模、船舶状况、气象海况、船型、船旗国等因素密切相关;除常规认知外,船旗国对海事事故的影响一定程度上存在"悖论"情况。研究结论可为海事管理部门和航运企业针对重点区域、重点船舶和重点致因采取有效事故防控措施提供决策依据。     

Using CyclePhilly data to assess wrong-way riding of cyclists in Philadelphia

ProblemThe increasing use of smartphones and low cost GPS have provided new sources for collecting data and using them to explain travel behavior. This study aims to use data collected from a smartphone application (CyclePhilly) to explain wrong-way riding behavior of cyclists on one-way segments to help better identify the demographic and network factors influencing the wrong-way riding decision making.MethodsThe data used in this study consist of two different sources: (a) Route trips data downloaded from the CyclePhilly Website contained trips detailed up to segment level, collected from May 2014 to April 2016 (12,202 trips by 300 unique users); and (b) Open Street Maps (OSM). Using ArcGIS, we calculate detour routes for each wrong way segment. We then built a mixed logistic regression model to identify the trip and riders' characteristics affecting wrong-way riding behavior. Next, we explore the characteristics of road facilities associated with wrong-way riding behavior.Results and discussionOnly 2.7% of travel distance is wrong-way, yet 42% of trips include a wrong-way segment. Commute trips have a higher chance of wrong-way riding. The longer the trips also include more wrong-way riding. Segments with higher detour ratios (ratio of distance with a detour to the wrong-way distance) are found to be associated with more wrong-way behavior. Compared to roads with no bike lane, roads with sharrow markings and buffered bike lane discourage wrong way riding.Practical applicationsThis study proposes new methods that can be adapted to use naturalistic and probe data and analyze city-wide aberrant riders' behavior. These help planners and engineers choose between various types of bike infrastructure. Wrong-way riding is one application that can be investigated, but probe bicycle datasets provide unprecedented resolution and volume of data that will allow for more sophisticated safety and planning analyses.     

人工神经网络对矿山安全状态的评判能力分析

通过改变神经网络训练样本等方法,对比分析了神经网络对不同训练样本的反映能力,讨论了人工神经网络对矿山安全程度进行评价的适应性.为了研究人工神经网络用于矿山安全评价时的优化设计,通过改变神经网络的神经元数目及初值赋值方式等方法,测试了不同结构、不同参数的神经网络对相同训练样本的评价结论.本文的研究为人工神经网络用于矿山安全评价时的进一步改进及其优化设计提出了合理的建议.     

Main differences on European regulations in the frame of the Seveso Directive

Since the first Seveso Directive was issued 25 years ago, each Member State of the European Union developed own regulations to enforce its application. The lack of a common approach generated differences between Member States, or even between regions within a Member State, which in practical terms caused that establishments falling under the field of application of the Seveso Directive face a different level of requirements. This situation causes significantly different impact on social, technical and financial aspects.Factors like industrial background, accidental history, actual land use, social attitude towards risk, economical and political structures play an important role in how the decisions about hazardous activities are perceived and handled.Answering the question: “Is there a right methodology for the assessment of the risk of major accidents?” may be sterile or impossible. Many tools are appropriate and the main concern is to use them properly. Technically, the causes and consequences of, e.g., a fire in a port in Spain on the Mediterranean Sea or in the port of Basel (Switzerland) in the Rhine River could be assessed using the same methods and criteria, but this is not usually the case.This paper shows, with practical examples, the differences existing while applying different regulations in the field of prevention of major accidents and the potential effects that these differences may generate regarding the definition and management of emergency plans outside establishments.If the existing unequal situation is not faced, the comparative disagreements between Member States will prevail. Therefore, the application of the Seveso Directive will generate a different impact on the society, operators and regulators, and may become a factor which may cause a risk transfer between Member States. Efforts should be addressed to harmonize criteria in this subject.     

Reasonableness of a proposed System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) validation framework: An interview study

Since its inception, the STPA technique has gained increasing popularity among researchers and industry practitioners. Nevertheless, the validity of its application has not yet received much scientific attention. Although some informal validation approaches have been used by STPA users, no formalized validation framework has been elaborated for practical use. This paper investigates the reasonableness of the recently proposed STPA validation framework, which includes 15 validation tests, each focusing on a specific step of an STPA analysis. To do so, STPA experts in both academia and industry were interviewed. First, it is investigated what approaches they have been using for validating an STPA analysis, the findings of which were categorized and mapped with the proposed validation framework. This aims to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between the theory-based validation framework and the informal methods applied by experts in current practice. Then, the proposed framework was presented to the interviewees to seek their judgments about its reasonableness. Feedback from practitioners indicated that the proposed STPA validation framework has certain strengths, while several opportunities exist for further improvement. In particular, the findings indicate that most of the proposed theory-based tests have been already used by STPA experts in an unstructured manner. The experts appreciated the framework in that it provides clear guidance on how to validate each step of an STPA analysis systematically, and found some additional theory-based tests interesting for consideration in practice. The results also suggest that further research is needed to develop systematic techniques for performing each test to facilitate its application by STPA experts.     

Slip and fall accident prevention: A review of research, practice, and regulations

This paper summarizes current research, practices, and regulations regarding walking/working surface slipperiness and coefficient of friction (COF) measurements. The literature and data are reviewed from three aspects:

1. (a) the biomechanics of walking and psychophysiological factors involved in slips and falls studied by the scientific community,

2. (b) various measuring devices and methods developed in an attempt to quantify the “slipperiness” of walking/working surfaces, and

3. (c) an acceptable quantitative standard for the “slipperiness” of surfaces and the impact of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) on such a standard.

Unresolved issues related to slip-resistance are identified. A multifaceted approach and synergy from researchers, the building industries, standards organizations, and government are needed to obtain concensus on such issues.     

Method to assess and optimise dependability of complex macro-systems: Application to a railway signalling system

Achieving a high degree of dependability in complex macro-systems is challenging. Because of the large number of components and numerous independent teams involved, an overview of the global system performance is usually lacking to support both design and operation adequately.A functional failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) approach is proposed to address the dependability optimisation of large and complex systems. The basic inductive model FMECA has been enriched to include considerations such as operational procedures, alarm systems, environmental and human factors, as well as operation in degraded mode. Its implementation on a commercial software tool allows an active linking between the functional layers of the system and facilitates data processing and retrieval, which enables to contribute actively to the system optimisation.The proposed methodology has been applied to optimise dependability in a railway signalling system. Signalling systems are typical example of large complex systems made of multiple hierarchical layers. The proposed approach appears appropriate to assess the global risk- and availability-level of the system as well as to identify its vulnerabilities. This enriched-FMECA approach enables to overcome some of the limitations and pitfalls previously reported with classical FMECA approaches.     

基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。