国内外矿山事故预防与救护机制对比分析

简要介绍了印度、德国、美国、加拿大等国矿山事故预防与救护机制,与我国的矿山事故预防和救护机制进行了对比分析,指出我国矿山伤亡事故的严峻形势,提出了我国矿山事故预防与救护的建议,对减少矿山事故、发展矿山经济具有指导意义。     

Simulating the relative influence of tire,vehicle and driver factors on forward collision accident rates

Introduction: There is currently a strong focus within the automotive industry centered on traffic safety, with topics such as distracted driving, accident avoidance technologies, and autonomous vehicles. These papers tend to focus on the possible improvements from a single factor. However, there are many factors that are present in each accident, and it is important to understand the influence of each factor on the relative accident risk in order to identify the most effective approaches for improving driver safety. Rear-end accidents tend to be the most common accident type with approximately 1.8 M cases, or 31% of all accidents, in 2012, according to NHTSA. Of the rear-end accident scenarios, approximately 18–23% occur on wet surfaces. Method: A Monte Carlo Forward Collision Simulation models the conditions of a wet rear-end accident and estimates the relative impact of various vehicle collision parameters. The model takes distributions of these parameters as inputs, and outputs a risk of collision relative to a known reference case. The parameters that can be studied include: tire grip level, road grip level, vehicle velocity, following distances, and the presence of vehicle technologies (ABS, FCW & AEB). Distributions of some of these parameters have been improved thanks to Naturalistic Driving Study data from SHRP2. Results: This study shows that these vehicle systems have a large impact on safety and can change the amount of influence attributed to other parameters such as tire grip levels. As the use of automated vehicle systems expands, so will the influence of tire grip performance levels on collision risks. Practical Applications: It is more important than ever for consumers and auto manufacturers to consider tire performance levels. Therefore, the tire industry should continue to focus on wet grip as a key performance related to safety and should strive to continue to improve tire performance.     

Influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the frequency of vehicle crashes caused by driver inattention: A comparison between rural roads and urban roads

Introduction: With prevalent and increased attention to driver inattention (DI) behavior, this research provides a comprehensive investigation of the influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the DI-related vehicle crash frequency per year. Specifically, a comparative analysis between DI-related crash frequency in rural road segments and urban road segments is conducted. Method: Utilizing DI-related crash data collected from North Carolina for the period 2013–2017, three types of models: (1) Poisson/negative binomial (NB) model, (2) Poisson hurdle (HP) model/negative binomial hurdle (HNB) model, and (3) random intercepts Poisson hurdle (RIHP) model/random intercepts negative binomial hurdle (RIHNB) model, are applied to handle excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset. Results: The results show that RIHP and RIHNB models distinctly outperform other models in terms of goodness-of-fit. The presence of commercial areas is found to increase the probability and frequency of DI-related crashes in both rural and urban regions. Roadway characteristics (such as non-freeways, segments with multiple lanes, and traffic signals) are positively associated with increased DI-related crash counts, whereas state-secondary routes and speed limits (higher than 35 mph) are associated with decreased DI-related crash counts in rural and urban regions. Besides, horizontal curved and longitudinal bottomed segments and segments with double yellow lines/no passing zones are likely to have fewer DI-related crashes in urban areas. Medians in rural road segments are found to be effective to reduce DI-related crashes. Practical Applications: These findings provide a valuable understanding of the DI-related crash frequency for transportation agencies to propose effective countermeasures and safety treatments (e.g., dispatching more police enforcement or surveillance cameras in commercial areas, and setting more medians in rural roads) to mitigate the negative consequences of DI behavior.     

中美两国民航事故发展趋势对比分析

为了持续改进民航安全,本文对中美两国民航运输事故趋势进行了分析研究。对民航运输事故率的统计采样周期、变化规律的曲线类型进行研究,并基于5年为采样周期、滚动平均的数据建立回归分析模型。利用此模型对中美两国的运输飞行事故率和亿客公里死亡人数进行曲线拟合。最后,对比分析中美两国的事故率和亿客公里死亡人数拟合值。研究表明中美两国民航事故率遵循相似的规律发展,中国民航安全改进速度更快。依据研究结果,预测在2014年中国民航运输飞行重大事故率大约是美国的1/3、亿客公里死亡人数大约是美国的2倍,分析表明美国民航事故水平很大程度受小型运输机制约,指出随着我国大力发展支线航空,可能会带来航空事故的高发期。     

安技人员素质与工伤事故关系问题的探讨

以中国飞行试验研究院安全技术人员配置状况为研究对象 ,结合近 2 0年来工伤事故情况 ,从安技人员文化基础、专业知识、工作年龄、安全年限等方面 ,研究分析安技人员素质与工伤事故的关系及其规律。目的是为安技人员的素质建设以及充分发挥安技人员积极性提供有效的依据和帮助     

海氏事故致因论的建筑事故例证与分析

海因里希于1931年在其<工业事故预防-管理手段>*一书中,首次提出了他的事故致因理论,其内容为"事故是由类似于多米诺骨牌一样的因果链所引起的".这个因果链为"人成长的社会环境或遗传因素(第一块骨牌)形成了他本身的某方面的缺欠(第二块骨牌),这个缺欠导致工作时他有不安全行为的和物(如机械设备等)的某方面的不安全状态发生(第三块骨牌),人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致事故(第四块骨牌)的发生,事故再最终导致人员发生伤害(第五块骨牌)."     

公路交通事故危险性与事故原因的灰色关联分析

交通安全既可以采用交通事故次数来评价，也可以根据交通事故的严重度进行衡量。不同的交通事故诱因，其事故后果的危险程度也不一致。运用灰色系统理论，以某段道路上交通事故多发点的“地点危险指数”为参考数列，以这些地点的不同事故诱因为比较数列，对“事故危险指数”和引发交通事故的各类事故原因之间作灰色关联分析，可以找出该路段上危害性最大的一些交通事故成因，在交通管理和交通安全宣传教育中有针对性地进行防治。本文以107国道1716—1883公里的交通事故数据为例给出了算例。     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

毒气泄漏事故居民疏散心理行为特征相关性研究

为了研究在毒气泄漏事故中居民的心理行为特征,选择发生过毒气泄漏事故的某化工企业,采用问卷法对其周边居民进行调查,并运用SPSS软件对调查问卷的结果进行独立性分析,从而得出居民在疏散过程中的各种心理行为反应的相关因素,为制定有效的应急疏散管理预案提供科学的依据。     

油库雷击事故的预防与控制

油库是储存易燃易爆油品的专用场所,雷电是油库安全生产的重大隐患,油库防雷已成为关系到经济建设、社会发展和人民生命财产安全的重大课题。针对目前我国油库雷击事故频繁发生的问题,在对大量事故资料研究的基础上,分析了油库雷击火灾爆炸事故的原因,指出雷电产生的火花引燃油气是导致油库火灾爆炸的主要原因。并重点从安全管理学的角度,运用事故预防与控制的＂3E＂对策,分别从安全技术、安全管理、安全教育三个方面探讨了油库雷击事故的预防与控制措施。     

事故损失统计中的量化问题

简要介绍了事故损失统计中一些量化方法的应用,同时提出用方差分析来确定加权系数的取舍。     

Overview of the relationship between organizational and workplace factors and injury rates

This paper summarizes data from ten studies examining the relationship between organizational and workplace factors and injury rates. The studies were identified from a systematic literature search, as well as from other sources, and were included if they reported comparisons among at least 20 workplaces. Factors that were examined in at least two studies were identified. Their relationship with injury rates was determined. It was not possible to make quantitative comparisons between studies. We looked for ‘consistency’ or ‘contradiction’ in the relationships. Among the variables ‘consistency’ associated with lower injury rates were: empowerment of the workforce (in general matters); delegation of safety activities; and an active role (in health and safety) of top management. Among the ‘contradictory’ variables were the level and use of discipline for safety violations; and several others that were contradictory only in subgroups of the same study. We discuss the limitations of synthesizing results from the diverse studies.     

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey

Objective: Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage–only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey.

Methods: In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle–vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R).

Results: It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The R values for prediction of fault rates were close to 1 for all folds and scenarios.

Conclusions: This study focuses on exhibiting new aspects and scientific approaches for determining fault rates of involvement in most frequent PDO accidents occurring in Turkey by discussing some deficiencies in THTA and without regard to initiative and/or experience of experts. This study yields judicious decisions to be made especially on forensic investigations and events involving insurance companies. Referring to this approach, injury/fatal and/or pedestrian-related accidents may be analyzed as future work by developing new scientific models.     

The role of local communities in chemical accident prevention and preparedness

Since the adoption of community right-to-know programs in the US there has been an increase in the number of groups known as local emergency planning committees. These committees have matured in focus over the intervening years since the Bhopal incident and even more so since the events of September 11, 2001. There is a strong recognition that local communities working very closely with chemical handling facilities in their areas can directly and meaningfully reduce the threat of a chemical release incident, regardless of cause. Likewise, through similar means they can better prepare themselves to respond should an incident occur. Especially as regards modern concepts of process chemical safety and facility security, local communities can be of great assistance to smaller facilities that do not otherwise necessarily have the resources to accomplish these tasks. As the vulnerabilities of a facility to accident or intentional act, the impacts of these events and the ability of communities to react are all a function of local conditions, it is clear that these local efforts can be more meaningful than large-scale national efforts. While national legislation is certainly helpful to the process of bringing people together, it is the local relationships that produce results.     

The evaluation of the european home and leisure accident surveillance system

In 1986 the Council of Ministers of the European Community set up a 5-year demonstration project called the European Home and Leisure Accident Surveillance System (EHLASS); this project collects data on home and leisure accidents from accident and emergency departments of hospitals. The study reported upon in this paper evaluates the results of the demonstration project, in particular at the national level, and identifies problems that need to be resolved during the second stage of the project. The major finding of the study is that there are many good reasons for continuing EHLASS. The conditions for successful implementation of the system have been identified; these conditions relate to the methodology and the management of the system. The key element for a successful implementation of EHLASS is decentralization of technical responsibilities and reinforcement of the coordinating role of the European Commission.     

The indirect involvement of buses in traffic accident processes

The involvement of buses in accidents usually is assessed implicitly on the basis of the direct involvement of the bus in the collision or in injury production. This paper deals with the scope and forms of indirect involvement of buses (as a sight obstruction, for example). Accidents were selected by identifying the presence of the term ‘bus’ or synonyms in the text parts of complete police reports (testimonies, statements by the persons involved, etc.) available in electronic form, then analysed in detail. Direct or indirect involvement of a bus is found in 3.6% of traffic injury accidents reported by the police in the community studied (direct involvement: 1.4%; indirect involvement: 2.2%). The different forms of indirect involvement are then described, and some possibilities of preventive measures are discussed.     

电力线路与燃气管道交叉跨越点雷击事故防护研究

针对临近杆塔接地网的管道过电压及防护问题,采用CDEGS仿真计算软件建立电力杆塔接地网及临近燃气管道结构模型,研究杆塔与管道间距、土壤电阻率和接地排流线等因素对管道过电压的影响;并提出通过优化电力杆塔接地网外延射线结构降低管道过电压的改造方案。研究结果表明:管道上的雷击过电压受散流间距、土质条件等因素的影响,并基本呈现线性关系;管道增设排流设施后,过电压减小;接地网外延射线结构改造后管道过电压抑制作用明显。研究结果可为实际燃气管道安全防护及电力设计施工提供理论参考。     

事故致因理论与安全理念

事故致因理论是安全科学的基本理论,是一个时期人们安全理念的集中反映.它涉及如何采取措施防止事故发生,以及谁应该对事故的发生承担责任等重大问题.从早期的事故频发倾向论到新近的系统理论事故模型,伴随着人们安全理念的不断变化,防止事故从着重对人的选择、教育和管理转向强调机械设备、生产条件的本质安全;防止事故的责任从劳动者转向设计者、管理者,从个人转向政府.     

事故致因理论与安全理念

事故致因理论是安全科学的基本理论,是一个时期人们安全理念的集中反映。它涉及如何采取措施防止事故发生,以及谁应该对事故的发生承担责任等重大问题。从早期的事故频发倾向论到新近的系统理论事故模型,伴随着人们安全理念的不断变化,防止事故从着重对人的选择、教育和管理转向强调机械设备、生产条件的本质安全;防止事故的责任从劳动者转向设计者、管理者,从个人转向政府。