盐穴地下储气库事故统计及风险分析

借鉴输气管道和二氧化碳地下封存设施的风险评价方法,结合盐穴地下储气库的事故统计分析,对储气库系统中的潜在风险因素进行12大类、35小类的初步分类,并归纳总结了盐穴地下储气库的3种主要事故类型。采用事故树分析的风险评价方法,对13种主要风险因素进行风险识别。在此基础上,提出定量风险评价的重要工程模型,其包括气体水合物模型、盐穴稳定性评价模型以及气体泄漏模型。该风险分析方法和工程模型有助于定量评价盐穴地下储气库的主要风险因素,为储库的安全稳定运行提供了科学依据。     

Hazards from carbon dioxide capture, transport and storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a developing technology which raises a number of issues in terms of safety. CCS involves a chain of processes comprising capture of carbon dioxide, transport and injection into underground storage. In work carried out for the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, a number of high-level hazard identification (HAZID) studies have been performed with the help of industry experts. The HAZIDs considered a carbon capture and storage chain involving capture, pipeline transport and injection. HAZID has been performed at a high-level for such a CCS chain with three types of capture technology and using pipeline transport. It is hoped that the results of the HAZID studies will be of use to those carrying out CCS projects, but should not be a substitute for them carrying out a full suite of integrated hazard management processes. A number of example hazards have been described to raise awareness of the range of hazards in a CCS process and to identify barriers which could prevent, minimise, control or mitigate CCS hazards. Bow-tie diagrams have been produced to record the information from this study and to organise it in a systematic way so that it is far less likely that contributors to and mitigators of hazards will be missed. The diagrams are available in Excel spreadsheet format so that they can be used as the starting point for development by specific CCS projects. CCS technology is still advancing and a number of knowledge gaps in terms of safety have been identified which require further development.     

An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.     

Fuzzy optimization of multi-period carbon capture and storage systems with parametric uncertainties

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology option for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. In practice, CO₂ sources are easy to characterize, while the estimation of relevant properties of storage sites, such as capacity and injection rate limit (i.e., injectivity), is subject to considerable uncertainty. Such uncertainties need to be accounted for in planning CCS deployment on a large scale for effective use of available storage sites. In particular, the uncertainty introduces technical risks that may result from overestimating the limits of given storage sites. In this work, a fuzzy mixed integer linear program (FMILP) is developed for multi-period CCS systems, accounting for the technical risk arising from uncertainties in estimates of sink parameters, while still attaining satisfactory CO₂ emissions reduction. In the model, sources are assumed to have precisely known CO₂ flow rates and operating lives, while geological sinks are characterized with imprecise fuzzy capacity and injectivity data. Three case studies are then presented to illustrate the model. Results of these examples illustrate the tradeoff inherent in planning CCS systems under parametric uncertainty.     

Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI): A new systematic HAZID tool

The availability of a hazard identification methodology based on early warnings is a crucial factor in the identification of emerging risks. In the present study, a specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was conceived as a development of bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide a comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, joined to a process of continuous improvement of the results of the assessment. DyPASI is a method for the continuous systematization of information from early signals of risk related to past events. The technique provides a support to the identification and assessment of atypical potential accident scenarios related to the substances, the equipment and the site considered, capturing available early warnings or risk notions. DyPASI features as a tool to support emerging risk management process, having the potentiality to contribute to an integrated approach aimed at breaking “vicious circles”, helping to trigger a gradual process of identification and assimilation of previously unrecognised atypical scenarios.     

The role of policy for the management of psychosocial risks at the workplace in the European Union

A number of significant developments towards the management of psychosocial risks have been achieved at the policy level in the European Union (EU) since the introduction of the 1989 European Commission Council Framework Directive 89/391/EEC on Safety and Health of Workers at Work on which a new EU risk prevention culture has since been established, combining legislation, social dialogue, best practices and building partnerships. However, it has been widely acknowledged that initiatives aiming to promote workers’ health have not had the impact anticipated both by experts and policy makers and the main reason for this has been the gap that exists between policy and practice. This paper discusses the findings from the PRIMA-EF project, a policy-orientated project, which focussed on the development of a European framework for psychosocial risk management at the workplace. In particular, the paper presents the results of an EU stakeholder survey and interviews with EU policy level experts to assess their awareness, understanding and evaluation of the impact of policy initiatives for psychosocial risk management.     

Project risk identification and assessment simultaneously using multi-attribute group decision making technique

The identification and assessment of project risks among potential risks can be considered a multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problem including both quantitative and qualitative criteria. We extend the concept of safety to risk identification and assessment; this is to emphasize that the focus should not only be on the time and cost criteria, but also on the health, safety and environment (HSE) criterion. Conventional approaches to risk identification and risk assessment separately tend to be less effective in dealing with the imprecise of the risk assessment individually. The aim of this paper is to present a new methodology for identifying and assessing risks simultaneously by applying MAGDM technique. This paper includes a new procedure for classifying potential risks which it is named potential risk breakdown structure (PRBS) based on project work breakdown structure (WBS). Nominal group technique (NGT) is utilized for gathering potential risks. Obtained results have been applied in gas refinery plant construction successfully.     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

低温乙烯储存过程风险评价及其缓解对策

为加强危险化学品储存的环境安全性,在深入调研危化品储存环节主要风险的基础上建立评价指标体系,采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合的风险评估模型对低温乙烯罐储存过程进行风险评估,并提出可行的控制措施。研究结果表明,储罐环境安全处于安全级内;针对低温乙烯罐存在的风险建立EHS一体化管理模式,建立全厂应急预案及一系列的风险预防措施,以缓解其储存过程的风险。     

综合安全评价(FSA)方法

为提高国际海运安全管理的决策水平,国际海事组织(IMO)接受并倡导由英国海运界提出的综合安全评价(FSA)方法,笔者对FSA方法作了本质性分析和应用性研究。阐述了FSA的由来,5个组成步骤及相互关系和流程,揭示了FSA与风险管理和安全系统工程的渊源;介绍了危险识别的7种工具;对步骤二“风险评估”重点引入了半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,并用集合论观点讨论了事故频率和后果严重度的计算方法;介绍了风险控制方案的“成本与效益评估”的数学模型;归纳了FSA方法的优缺点。指出FSA是一种集风险评价和成本/效益评估于一体,兼顾技术性与经济性,可广泛兼容具体评价方法和普遍适用各类风险评价的框架性方法,但具体应用需要有效整合适用的定性和定量方法。     

欧盟城市饮用水供应链风险管理与评价及其借鉴

结合欧盟2006年起开展的TECHNEAU(Technology Enabled Universal Access to Safe Water)项目,介绍了欧盟城市"从水源到用户的饮用水供应链"风险管理机制,以及"风险识别、评估、减缓和控制"综合风险评价框架;并从水源地、水处理系统、配水系统、历史风险事件、风险评价方法、评价结果6方面比较了捷克、德国、荷兰、挪威、瑞典5个国家典型城市风险评价实践,着重分析了瑞典哥特堡市风险评价中采用的综合概率故障树法和客户损失时间指数方法及其应用价值。总结了欧盟饮用水供应链的风险管理在全过程管理策略、"关口前移"管理方针、多样性的风险评价方法与技术、参与主体多元化、评价结果公开透明5个方面的成功做法和经验,可供国内参考。     

风险管理在城市地铁工程中的应用初探

地铁工程作为一项大型工程项目,存在着大量的不确定性风险因素。这些不确定性风险因素加大了地铁施工技术的难度,严重地影响着地铁工程建设目标的实现。笔者从风险因素辨识、风险分析和评估、风险响应3个方面详细分析了一般大型工程项目风险管理的研究现状;探讨了地铁工程风险的定义、风险管理的定义及其内涵;指出城市地铁建设进行风险评估和管理是非常必要的。     

Towards a European energy risks monitor to consistently map safety and security risks of different energy infrastructures

After mapping of current European Union regulations on the management of accident risks related to natural hazards and different industrial activities, this paper discusses insights from past and current European Commission initiatives on harmonisation of assessment and management of safety risks. The problem of safety comparison and risk/benefit communication is of critical importance for sustainable decision making. For the specific case of the energy sector, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and DG TREN (Directorate General for Transport and Energy) have recently started two connected initiatives, called energy risks monitor (ERMON) and safety and security of energy infrastructures in a comparative view (SEIF-CV). While ERMON deals with the development of a methodology and corresponding web-based information system to cross-compare in a consistent way safety, risk and reliability performances of different energy systems (fossil, nuclear, renewables) across their specific fuel cycle chains, SEIF-CV creates a corresponding network of stakeholders in the energy sector as well as the necessary review and user panels for ERMON. Objectives and status of ERMON and SEIF-CV are described.     

Power system planning with emission constraints: Effects of CCS retrofitting

Today, the world's energy needs are still supplied mainly from fossil fuel based resources. This is true for electricity generation as well, thus making the power sector responsible for 45% of greenhouse gas emissions. The present climate crisis has made it necessary to minimise emissions in power generation, with low-carbon energy sources taking on greater significance in recent years. However, most low-carbon sources have inherent problems, like intermittency and high capital expenditure. A suitable alternative is carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology which allows continued fossil fuel-based electricity generation at much lower rates of emission. Two approaches are possible in the deployment of CCS technology. The first is to introduce new power plants equipped for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture, while systematically shutting down existing coal power plants. Another is to retrofit existing power plants for CO₂ capture. These approaches are compared in this work. The study shows that allowing CCS retrofitting of existing power plants can reduce the overall cost requirement significantly. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also done to study the effect of nuclear energy on the overall energy mix.     

Developing a standard for psychosocial risk management: PAS 1010

The nature of work has changed dramatically due to globalisation, migration, technological advances and the emergence of the knowledge-based economy. These changes have been accompanied by the increased prevalence of new and emerging types of risk to workers’ health and safety, such as psychosocial risks. This paper reviews the key regulatory and voluntary standards on occupational health and safety of relevance to the management of psychosocial risks in the workplace that are applicable to the European Union member states. The review indicates that regulatory standards set the minimum level of protection for workers and voluntary standards may further enable organisations to go beyond their legal obligations. However, the review also highlights that the terms ‘stress’ and ‘psychosocial risks’ are not mentioned explicitly in most pieces of legislation leading to lack of clarity on the terminology used. While voluntary standards seek to address this, very few provide specific guidance on the process of psychosocial risk management to enable organisations to manage psychosocial risks successfully. On the basis of the review, the case for the development of a voluntary standard for psychosocial risk management is presented. The paper further discusses the recent development of such a standard and its implications at the European level.     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

I-Risk: development of an integrated technical and management risk methodology for chemical installations

This paper presents an integrated quantitative risk assessment method for hazardous installations, taking into account management as well as technical design and producing risk level measures. The key components of the I-Risk methodology are the technical model, the management model and their interface. The technical model consists of developing a master logic diagram (MLD) delineating the major immediate causes of loss of containment (LOC) and associated quantitative models for assessing their frequency. The management model consists of the tasks, which must be carried out systematically in the primary business functions (such as operations, emergency operations, maintenance and modifications). A management audit quantifies the quality of these management tasks. The management–technical interface modifies certain parameters of the technical model on the basis of the quality of the safety management system of the specific installation. The methodology is exemplified through its application to the risk assessment of an ammonia storage facility. A detailed technical model simulating the response of the system to various initiating events is developed along with a detailed management model simulating the influence of the plant-specific management and organisational practices. The overall effect is quantified through the frequency of release of ammonia as a result of a loss of containment in a storage tank and in a pipeline.     

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that there are many appropriate techniques for any circumstance and the choice has become more a matter of taste. In this paper, we examine the risk analysis tools used by 24 chemical plants in Belgium, mainly located in the port of Antwerp, the second largest chemical cluster in the world after Houston, TX, USA. The aim of this paper is to identify the current practice in the chemical industry subject to European Seveso legislation and to examine how the present methods can be integrated to improve safety policy, especially towards preventing major accidents. Moreover, conclusions on the prevention of catastrophic external domino accidents involving several companies are formulated. This paper also gives impulse to investigating cross-company management implementations concerning external domino accident prevention.     

Targeting for optimal grid-wide deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques are considered as one of the promising approaches to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel based power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. CCS technology can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, with the additional advantage that it allows continuing use reliable and inexpensive fossil fuels. However, CCS retrofit entails major capital costs as well as a reduction of overall thermal efficiency and power output. Thus, it is essential for planning purposes to implement the minimal extent of CCS retrofit while meeting the specified carbon emission limits for the power sector. At the same time, it is necessary to plan for compensatory power generation capacity to offset energy losses resulting from CCS retrofit. In this paper, an algebraic targeting technique is presented for planning of grid-wide CCS retrofits in the power generation sector with compensatory power. The targeting technique is developed based on pinch analysis. In addition, the proposed methodologies are illustrated through case studies based on grid data in India and the Philippines. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the suitable CCS technology and compensatory power source which satisfy emission limits.