OPERA: a New High-Resolution Energy System Model for Sector Integration Research

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - This article introduces and describes OPERA, a new technology-rich bottom-up energy system optimization model for the Netherlands. We give a detailed...     

Coupling a Detailed Transport Model to the Integrated Assessment Model REMIND

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - The transport sector is a crucial bottleneck in the decarbonization challenge. To study the sector’s decarbonization potential in the wider systems...     

Integrated Traffic and Emission Simulation: a Model Calibration Approach Using Aggregate Information

Environmental impacts of road traffic have attracted increasing attention in project-level traffic planning and management. The conventional approach considers emission impact analysis as a separate process in addition to traffic modeling. This paper first introduces our research effort to integrate traffic, emission, and dispersion processes into a common distributed computational framework, which makes it efficient to quantify and analyze correlations among dynamic traffic conditions, emission impacts, and air quality consequences. A model calibration approach is particularly proposed when on-road or in-lab instantaneous emission measurements are not directly available. Microscopic traffic simulation is applied to generate dynamic vehicle states at the second-by-second level. Using aggregate emission estimation as standard reference, a numerical optimization scheme on the basis of a stochastic gradient approximation algorithm is applied to find optimal parameters for the dynamic emission model. The calibrated model has been validated on several road networks with traffic states generated by the same simulation model. The results show that with proper formulation of the optimization objective function, the estimated dynamic emission model can capture the trends of aggregate emission patterns of traffic fleets and predict local emission and air quality at higher temporal and spatial resolutions.     

Atrazine Transport Within a Coastal Zone in Southeastern Puerto Rico: a Sensitivity Analysis of an Agricultural Field Model and Riparian Zone Management Model

Agrichemical runoff from farmland may adversely impact coastal water quality. Two models, the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM), were used to evaluate the movement of the herbicide atrazine to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve from adjacent fields. The reserve is located on Puerto Rico’s southeast coast. Edge-of-field atrazine outputs simulated with the APEX were routed through a grass-forest buffer using the REMM. Atrazine DT₅₀ (half-life) values measured in both field and buffer soils indicated that accelerated degradation conditions had developed in the field soil due to repeated atrazine application. APEX simulations examined both the measured field and buffer soil atrazine DT₅₀ and the model’s default value. The use of the measured field soil atrazine degradation rate in the APEX resulted in 33 % lower atrazine transport from the field. REMM simulations indicated that the buffer system had the potential to reduce dissolved atrazine transport in surface runoff by 77 % during non-tropical storm events by increasing infiltration, slowing transport, and increasing time for pesticide degradation. During a large runoff event due to a tropical storm that occurred close to the time of an atrazine application, the REMM simulated only a 37 % reduction in atrazine transport. The results indicate that large storm events soon after herbicide application likely dominate herbicide transport to coastal waters in the region. These results agree with water quality measurements in the reserve. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of these models to variations in DT₅₀ values in evaluating atrazine fate and transport in the region and emphasizes that the use of measured DT₅₀ values can improve model accuracy.     

土壤样品中总铬测定方法的改进

对土壤样品中总铬的测定方法进行了改进,首次使用HNO_3-HCl-HF-HClO_4-H_3PO_4混酸体系对样品进行消解,定容后的试液经离心后用火焰原子吸收分光光度法测定。结果表明,与传统的HCl-HNO_3-HF-HClO_4消解法相比,该方法具有更高的准确度、加标回收率和精密度,可广泛应用于环境土壤中总铬的检测。     

Energy Security: A Robust Optimization Approach to Design a Robust European Energy Supply via TIAM-WORLD

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance, a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin or again, by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version of the above issue that mainly addresses long-term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of robust optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of chance-constrained programming under the name of distributionally robust, or ambiguous, chance-constrained programming. We apply the approach to improve the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.     

Correlated Parameters Uncertainty Propagation in a Rainfall-Runoff Model,Considering 2-Copula; Case Study: Karoon III River Basin

Hydrological models are widely used to investigate practical issues of water resources. Parametric uncertainty is considered as one of the most important sources of uncertainty in environmental researches. Generally, it is assumed that the parameters are independent mutually, but correlation within the parameter space is an important factor having the potential to cause uncertainty. The objective and innovation of this study was to address the effects of parameters correlation on a continuous hydrological model uncertainty. HEC-HMS with soil moisture accounting (SMA) infiltration method was used to model daily flows and simulate certainty bounds for Karoon III basin, southwest of IRAN, in two scenarios, independent and correlated parameters using 2-copula. The parameters were represented by probability distributions, and the effect on prediction error were evaluated using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K), Clark storage-coefficient (R), and time of concentration (tc) were chosen for investigation, based on observed sensitivity analysis of simulated peak over threshold (POT). One hundred runs were randomly generated from 100 parameter sets captured from LHS of parameters distributions in each sub-basin. Using generated parameter sets, 100 continuous hydrographs were simulated and values of certainty bounds calculated. Results showed that when 2-copula correlated R and tc, with 0.656 Kendall’s Tau and 0.818 Spearman’s Rho coefficients, were propagated, decreasing of outputs’ sharpness was more than when considering K and R (K-R), with 0.166 and 0.262; therefore, incorporation of correlations in the MCS is important, especially when the correlation coefficients exceed 0.65. The model was evaluated at the outlet of the basin using daily stream flow data. Model reliability was better for above-normal flows than normal and below-normal. Reliability increases of simulated flow when considering correlated R-tc was more than K-R because of the correlation values. Incorporation of copula for K-tc not only did not improve the model reliability but also decreased it. Results showed improvement of model reliability, by decreasing predicted error of hydrologic modeling, when dealing with correlated parameters in the system.     

Modelling the Effect of Weather Conditions on Cyanobacterial Bloom Outbreaks in Lake Dianchi: a Rough Decision-Adjusted Logistic Regression Model

Lake Dianchi, one of the main water sources for Kunming, China, experiences severe cyanobacterial blooms due to rapid urbanization and local industrial development. Scientific interest in the mechanisms that cause blooms has been increasing. An integrated model combining rough set theory with binary logistic regression was used to examine the correlation between weather conditions and cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi based on daily monitoring data. The binary logistic regression yielded quantitative correlations between cyanobacterial blooms and the assessed meteorological variables, including temperature, wind velocity, and wind direction. The rough decision process connected the weather conditions and cyanobacterial blooms, which were used to verify the binary regression model results. It was shown that by comparing the methods, the rough decision-adjusted binary logistic regression model significantly improved model accuracy. The integrated model of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi may inform decision-makers at local water purification plants of the water quality in the lake and assist them in making more cost-effective decisions.     

Modelling the Removal of Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matters from the Atmosphere of a City by Rain: Effect of Cloud Density

In this paper, an original nonlinear mathematical model for the removal of gaseous pollutants and particulate matters from the atmosphere of an industrial city by rain is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that five interacting phases in the atmosphere of the city exist, i.e., cloud droplets phase, raindrops phase, gaseous pollutants phase, particulate matters phase, and the phase of absorbed gaseous pollutants in raindrops. It is assumed further that these phases undergo nonlinear interactions in the atmosphere, while gaseous pollutant interacts with cloud droplets as well as with raindrops but particulate matters interact only with raindrops. The gravitational settling and reversible reaction processes have also been considered appropriately in the model. By analyzing the model, it is shown that both the gaseous pollutants and particulate matters may be removed from the atmosphere under certain conditions, provided the rates of formation of cloud droplets and raindrops are sufficiently large. It is noted that under unfavorable atmospheric conditions, rain does not occur and pollutants are not removed from the atmosphere.     

Development of a New Approach to Cumulative Effects Assessment: A Northern River Ecosystem Example

If sustainable development of Canadian waters is to be achieved, a realistic and manageable framework is required for assessing cumulative effects. The objective of this paper is to describe an approach for aquatic cumulative effects assessment that was developed under the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative. The approach is based on a review of existing monitoring practices in Canada and the presence of existing thresholds for aquatic ecosystem health assessments. It suggests that a sustainable framework is possible for cumulative effects assessment of Canadian waters that would result in integration of national indicators of aquatic health, integration of national initiatives (e.g., water quality index, environmental effects monitoring), and provide an avenue where long-term monitoring programs could be integrated with baseline and follow-up monitoring conducted under the environmental assessment process.     

Lichen transplants as a suitable tool to identify mercury pollution from waste incinerators: a case study from NE Italy

A lichen transplant study aimed at investigating a strong increase in mercury concentrations in lichens was run in a territory of NE Italy where background values were very low only 8 years before. Thalli of the lichen Pseudevernia furfuracea collected in a pristine area were exposed for 1.5, 3 and 6 months at 31 sites selected according to the observed pattern of Hg concentrations, location of the suspected source (a new waste incinerator) and prevailing wind direction. Hg strongly increased at eight sites after 1.5 months, at 12 after 3 months and at 20 after 6 months. The highest values were always located SW and S of the incinerator, in good agreement with the prevailing night wind direction. It was concluded that, although the immediate risk for the population living close to the incinerator is low, long-term hazard due to Hg accumulation in the surrounding environment should be seriously taken into account.     

Fish Bone as a Low-Cost Adsorbent for Dye Removal from Wastewater: Response Surface Methodology and Classical Method

This research studied the application of fish bone as a low-cost adsorbent for the removal of two basic dyes (C.I. Basic Blue 41 and C.I. Basic Yellow 28) from textile wastewaters. The surface morphology and functional groups of the fish bone was studied by scanning electron microscopy and Fourier transform infrared, respectively. The experiments were designed in two methods: classical method and response surface methodology (RSM). The effect of operating parameters including pH, initial dye concentration, adsorbent dosage, and inorganic salts was investigated by both methods. The optimum conditions to satisfy 75 % of dye removal for both dyes were predicted by RSM method and the results were very close to the experimental values. So, it was concluded that the fish bone can be used as a low-cost adsorbent for dye removal from effluents.     

Eutrophication Prediction Using a Markov Chain Model: Application to Lakes in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Lake eutrophication is harmful and difficult to predict due to its complex evolution. As an alternative to existing mechanistic models, a Markov chain model was developed to predict the development of lake eutrophication based on an 11-year dataset in 41 lakes of the Yangtze River Basin. This model was validated using a real-time update strategy and was demonstrated to be reliable. Based on the dataset, the lake eutrophication dynamics from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed. Lakes with different trophic states from 2011 to 2050 and their responses to different water management practices were simulated based on the developed model. The simulation results show that lake eutrophication would worsen from 2011 to 2040; however, eutrophication could be significantly alleviated by changing 100 km² of hypereutrophic lakes into eutrophic lakes per year from 2010 to 2020. The nutrient conditions in most of the lakes in the Yangtze River Basin show that phosphorus control would be more efficient than nitrogen control in eutrophication management practices. This case study demonstrates the utility of Markov chain models in using prior information to predict the long-term evolution of lake eutrophication at large spatial scales. The Markov chain technique can be easily adapted to predict evolutionary processes in other disciplines.     

Diel Cycling of Zinc in a Stream Impacted by Acid Rock Drainage: Initial Results from a New in situ Zn Analyzer

Recent work has demonstrated that many trace metals undergo dramatic diel (24-h) cycles in near neutral pH streams with metal concentrations reproducibly changing up to 500% during the diel period (Nimick et al., 2003). To examine diel zinc cycles in streams affected by acid rock drainage, we have developed a novel instrument, the Zn-DigiScan, to continuously monitor in situ zinc concentrations in near real-time. Initial results from a 3-day deployment at Fisher Creek, Montana have demonstrated the ability of the Zn-DigiScan to record diel Zn cycling at levels below 100 μg/l. Longer deployments of this instrument could be used to examine the effects of episodic events such as rainstorms and snowmelt pulses on zinc loading in streams affected by acid rock drainage.     

Change in drinking water quality from source to point-of-use and storage: a case study from Guwahati, India

To ascertain the quality of drinking water being supplied and maintained at Guwahati, the study was conducted on the status of water supply in city through surveillance of drinking water quality for consecutive 7 days at various treatment stages, distribution network and consumer ends. The performance of five water treatment plants (WTPs), viz. Panbazar WTP, Satpukhuri WTP, Kamakhya WTP, PHED WTP and Hegrabari WTP were assessed for summer, piost-post-monsoon and winter seasons. No significant change in raw water quality was observed on day-to-day basis. Residual chlorine was found in the range of nil to 0.2 mg/L in the treated water. During post-monsoon, winter, and summer seasons the thermotolerent TC and FC counts ranged between Nil to 168 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 84 CFU/100 ml; Nil to 3356 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 152 CFU/100 ml; and Nil to 960 CFU/100 ml and Nil to 108 CFU/100 ml respectively. There was variation in bacterial counts among the different service reservoirs and consumer ends, which may be attributed to the general management practices for maintenance of service reservoirs and the possibility of enroute contamination. Evaluation of the raw water quality indicate that the water is suitable for drinking after conventional treatment followed by disinfection. The finished water quality meets the level of standards described as per Bureau of Indian Standard specifications (BIS:10500 1991) for potability in terms of its physico-chemical characteristics.     

Linking Water Science to Policy: Results from a Series of National Workshops on Water

To ensure science better informs the decision-making process, researchers and policy/program managers need to understand and respect each other's way of working, culture and operational timelines. However, there is little practical guidance on how this should be done and even less documented experience with specific mechanisms that better link these two groups. The published literature on information transfer has largely emphasized the dissemination of standard packages of information to ill-defined constituencies whose needs for scientific information are not well understood. Environment Canada's National Water Research Institute, on behalf of the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, led a series of “Linking Water Science to Policy Workshops” as one such mechanism by which recent science could be delivered to practitioners, and practitioners could identify their research needs to scientists and research managers. There is a pressing need to explore and share experiences using creative mechanisms for sustained dialogue and networking between scientists and policy and program managers. The lessons learned from the workshop series and the need for science to continually inform the decision-making process has particular relevance for Canada's Ecosystem Initiatives given their integrated, place-based focus on long-term restoration and protection, and the challenge of continually changing ecosystems.The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Strategies to optimize monitoring schemes of recreational waters from Salta,Argentina: a multivariate approach

Several recreational surface waters in Salta, Argentina, were selected to assess their quality. Seventy percent of the measurements exceeded at least one of the limits established by international legislation becoming unsuitable for their use. To interpret results of complex data, multivariate techniques were applied. Arenales River, due to the variability observed in the data, was divided in two: upstream and downstream representing low and high pollution sites, respectively, and cluster analysis supported that differentiation. Arenales River downstream and Campo Alegre Reservoir were the most different environments, and Vaqueros and La Caldera rivers were the most similar. Canonical correlation analysis allowed exploration of correlations between physicochemical and microbiological variables except in both parts of Arenales River, and principal component analysis allowed finding relationships among the nine measured variables in all aquatic environments. Variable’s loadings showed that Arenales River downstream was impacted by industrial and domestic activities, Arenales River upstream was affected by agricultural activities, Campo Alegre Reservoir was disturbed by anthropogenic and ecological effects, and La Caldera and Vaqueros rivers were influenced by recreational activities. Discriminant analysis allowed identification of subgroup of variables responsible for seasonal and spatial variations. Enterococcus, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, E. coli, pH, and fecal coliforms are sufficient to spatially describe the quality of the aquatic environments. Regarding seasonal variations, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, fecal coliforms, and pH can be used to describe water quality during dry season, while dissolved oxygen, conductivity, total coliforms, E. coli, and Enterococcus during wet season. Thus, the use of multivariate techniques allowed optimizing monitoring tasks and minimizing costs involved.     

Managed aquifer recharge by a check dam to improve the quality of fluoride-rich groundwater: a case study from southern India

In many regions around the globe, including India, degradation in the quality of groundwater is of great concern. The objective of this investigation is to determine the effect of recharge from a check dam on quality of groundwater in a region of Krishnagiri District of Tamil Nadu State, India. For this study, water samples from 15 wells were periodically obtained and analysed for major ions and fluoride concentrations. The amount of major ions present in groundwater was compared with the drinking water guideline values of the Bureau of Indian Standards. With respect to the sodium and fluoride concentrations, 38% of groundwater samples collected was not suitable for direct use as drinking water. Suitability of water for agricultural use was determined considering the electrical conductivity, sodium adsorption ratio, sodium percentage, permeability index, Wilcox and United States Salinity Laboratory diagrams. The influence of freshwater recharge from the dam is evident as the groundwater in wells nearer to the check dam was suitable for both irrigation and domestic purposes. However, the groundwater away from the dam had a high ionic composition. This study demonstrated that in other fluoride-affected areas, the concentration can be reduced by dilution with the construction of check dams as a measure of managed aquifer recharge.