An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by giving tools a higher capability for analysis targeted at non-experts, but intelligent users. Many parties are involved in the construction of such tools including modellers, domain experts and tool users, resulting in as many views on the proposed tool. During tool development research continues which leads to advanced understanding of the system and may alter early specifications. Accumulation of changes to the initial design obscures the design, usually vastly increasing the number of defects in the software. The software engineering community uses concepts, methods and practices to deal with ambiguous specifications, changing requirements and incompletely conceived visions, and to design and develop maintainable/extensible quality software. The aim of this paper is to introduce modellers to software engineering concepts and methods which have the potential to improve model and tool development using experiences from the development of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool. These range from choosing a software development methodology for planning activities and coordinating people, technical design principles impacting maintainability, quality and reusability of the software to prototyping and user involvement. It is argued that adaptive development methods seem to best fit research projects, that typically have unclear upfront and changing requirements. The break-down of a system into elements that overlap as little as possible in features and behaviour helps to divide the work across teams and to achieve a modular and flexible system. However, this must be accompanied by proper automated testing methods and automated continuous integration of the elements. Prototypes, screen sketches and mock-ups are useful to align the different views, build a shared vision of required functionality and to match expectations.     

Exploitation of a single-cohort fishery under risk: A simulation-optimization approach

A numerical approach involving dynamic programming and computer simulation is used to examine the socially optimal exploitation of a single-cohort fishery under risk, with specific reference to the Exmouth Gulf Prawn Fishery in Western Australia. Best management strategies for given investment levels are sought before optimizing investment. The results for this industry show that time of year is much more important then level of biomass in determining best fishing policies, and that the timing of the catch is sensitive to natural fluctuations in some biological variables. Employing a “closed season” policy for part of the year appears an attractive way of reconciling private and social objectives under commonality. Under or overcapitalization does not reduce benefits markedly.     

Discounting under uncertainty: Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier effect

The uncertainty of future economic development affects the term structure of discount rates and, thus, the intertemporal weights that are to be used in cost benefit analysis. The U.K. and France have recently adopted a falling term structure to incorporate uncertainty and the U.S. is considering a similar step. A series of publications discusses the following concern: a seemingly analogous argument used to justify falling discount rates can also justify increasing discount rates. We show that increasing and decreasing discount rates mean different things, can coexist, are created by different channels through which risk affects evaluation, and have the same qualitative effect of making long-term payoffs more attractive.     

Sustainable fishing gear: the case of modified circle hooks in a Costa Rican longline fishery

Our research aims to identify longline fishing gear modifications that can improve fishing selectivity and reduce incidental capture of non-target species. Catch rates and anatomical hook locations (AHL) were compared when using a 14/0 standard ??control?? circle hook with a 0° offset and an experimental ??appendage?? hook in a Costa Rican longline fishery. With the appendage, the maximum dimension of the appendage hook was increased by 10% and the minimum dimension of the hook by 19%. A total of 1,811 marine animals were captured during five fishing trips. By taxonomic groups, sea turtles represented the largest total catch (27%), followed by sharks (26%), rays (25%), mahimahi (Coryphaena hippurus) (12%), and tunas and billfish (10%). Non-target and discard species, such as rays and sea turtles, accounted for over half of the total catch. Catch per unit effort (CPUE; number of individuals per 1,000 hooks) was higher with control hooks compared to appendage hooks for all species?? categories except rays; appendage hooks caught 52% fewer sea turtles and 23% fewer tunas and billfish than standard hooks, which represents a significant reduction in bycatch of endangered and other species. No differences were found in the AHL for sea turtles, suggesting use of the appendage may not incur additional advantages regarding turtles?? post-release survivorship. Despite lower catch rates for marketable species, such as sharks and mahimahi, use of the appendage resulted in dramatic reductions in catch rates of sea turtles. The results suggest that large scale adoption of hooks with a significantly wider hook dimension could be an effective conservation measure to maintain marine biodiversity while allowing for continued fishing.     

Dynamic aspects of effluent taxation under uncertainty

The optimal adjustment process for an effluent charge is derived when the firm's response to the charge is uncertain. The optimal process is shown to exhibit the dual effects of caution and probing. Because of uncertainty, society should be risk averse or cautious when setting the charge. However, because of the possibility of generating information for improved future control, this caution is balanced by the incentive to probe for additional information. Finally, if the uncertain parameters of the firm's response function are nonautonomous, their change over time must be explicitly considered to avoid bias in estimation.     

Optimal monitoring and control under state uncertainty: Application to lionfish management

State variables in many renewable resource management problems, such as the abundance of a fish stock, are imperfectly observed over time. In systems characterized by state uncertainty, decision makers often invest in monitoring to learn about the level of a stock. We develop a stochastic bioeconomic model of marine invasive species management under state uncertainty. The decision maker in our model simultaneously evaluates optimal investment in monitoring and population control. Using a recently-devised method for solving continuous-state Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), we find that the ability to learn through monitoring can alter the role of population control in the optimal policy function, for example by reducing control intensity in favor of monitoring. Optimal monitoring depends on the management context, including in our application lionfish population structure. The rich transient dynamics of our model depend critically on the relationship between the initial conditions for information and invader abundance.     

The response of the woodpigeon (Columba palumbus) to relaxation of intraspecific competition: A hybrid modelling approach

The recent rapid growth of the woodpigeon population in the British Isles is a cause for concern for environmental managers. It is unclear what has driven their increase in abundance. Using a mathematical model, we explored two possible mechanisms, reduced intraspecific competition for food and increased reproductive success. We developed an age-structured hybrid model consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations that describes density-dependent mortality and a discrete component, which represents the birth-pulse. We investigated equilibrium population dynamics using our model. The two hypotheses predict contrasting population age profiles at equilibrium. We adapted the model to examine the impacts of control measures. We showed that an annual shooting season that follows the period of density-dependent mortality is the most effective control strategy because it simultaneously removes adult and juvenile woodpigeons. The model is a first step towards understanding the processes that influence the dynamics of woodpigeon populations.     

Alternative policy instruments under uncertainty: A programming model of toxic pollution control

This paper presents the results of a programming model which examines the relative performance of different regulatory regimes under uncertainty in controlling toxic wastes discharged by industry to a central treatment plant when the central is subject to threshold-type losses in treatment performance. Four regulatory regimes are examined: non-market quantity, price, marketable permit, and mixed price-quantity. The theoretical framework of the model is based on the analysis of prices vs quantities by Weitzman in 1974 and its extension to the case of a discontinuous threshold effect. The data used are based on the situation of Bridgeport, Connecticut, which has a number of metal finishing firms.     

Traditional management of lagoons for fishery can be inconsistent with restoration purposes: the Valli di Comacchio study case

We gathered water and macrobenthic data over a 5-year period in the Valli di Comacchio, the largest lagoons in the Po River Delta (northern Adriatic), to evaluate the response of ecological indices and to test their sensitivity against environmental variables. Of 84 sampling points, only 12 exhibited a good/high ecological quality status according to the BITS and 28 according to the M-AMBI. Environmental variables representative of eutrophication did not correlate with the indices. The impacts experienced by the Valli during the last 30 years seem to have led to disruption of the pelagic–benthic food web. Eel fisheries, whose management is traditionally characterised by long water residence time, thus seem inconsistent with restoration purposes.     

Exploitation of the lobster fishery: Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the optimal and free market utilization of the lobster fishery and applies the results to two fishing areas in Canada. Biomass relationships and a production function are estimated and the empirical results are used to calculate hypothetical optimal fishing solutions. The welfare losses from overutilization of the fishing areas are examined.     

Replenishable resource management under uncertainty: A reexamination of the U.S. Northern Fishery

This paper partially extends the replenishable resource management literature to the case of uncertainty. Stochastic resource dynamics are defined, studied and estimated. The results of this study suggest that the misallocation of resources into the northern lobster fishery has been greater than was previously believed. While aggregate stochastic influences are small in the lobster fishery, the dynamics of whales appear to be significantly affected by stochastic influences.     

Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species.

Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-species conservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process.     

Substitution and the control of pollution : A comparison of effluent charges and quantity standards under uncertainty

Single-valued price and quantity controls of a polluting activity are compared under uncertainty. The ability to substitute other inputs for the pollutant in the production of a positively valued final good, and the usual discrepancy between the amount of pollution actually consumed and the amount emitted are carefully incorporated. The first is found to influence the degree to which cost fluctuation is reflected in the output of the final good. The second concern alters the region of the benefit function into which output is inserted. Both change the welfare losses associated with random fluctuation in the costs of reducing pollution.     

Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available.     

Evaluating and managing wildlife impacts of climate change under uncertainty

Wildlife managers face the daunting task of managing wildlife in light of uncertainty about the nature and extent of future climate change and variability and its potential adverse impacts on wildlife. A conceptual framework is developed for managing wildlife under such uncertainty. The framework uses fuzzy logic to test hypotheses about the extent of the wildlife impacts of past climate change and variability, and fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation to determine best compensatory management actions for adaptively managing the potential adverse impacts of future climate change and variability on wildlife. A compensatory management action is one that can offset some of the potential adverse impacts of climate change and variability on wildlife. Implementation of the proposed framework requires wildlife managers to: (1) select climate impact states, hypotheses about climate impact states, possible management actions for alleviating adverse wildlife impacts of climate change and variability, and future climate change scenarios; (2) choose biological attributes or indicators of species integrity; (3) adjust those attributes for changes in non-climatic variables; (4) define linguistic variables and associated triangular fuzzy numbers for rating both the acceptability of biological conditions under alternative management actions and the relative importance of biological attributes; (5) select minimum or maximum acceptable levels of the attributes and reliability levels for chance constraints on the biological attributes; and (6) define fuzzy sets on the extent of species integrity and biological conditions and select a fuzzy relation between species integrity and biological conditions. A constructed example is used to illustrate a hypothetical application of the framework by a wildlife management team. An overall best compensatory management action across all climate change scenarios is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which is appropriate when the management team cannot assign or is unwilling to assign probabilities to the future climate change scenarios. Application of the framework can be simplified and expedited by incorporating it in a web-based, interactive, decision support tool.     

The response of an insect parasitoid,Ormia ochracea (Tachinidae), to the uncertainty of larval success during infestation

Ormia ochracea is a parasitoid fly which lays its larvae on its hosts, the field crickets Gryllus integer and Gryllus rubens, in two distinct modes: (1) directly on the host and (2) around the host. In the field, 12.7% of male crickets were parasitized and 3.2% were super-parasitized. Despite the disadvantages of parasitizing infested hosts, there was no evidence that O. ochracea avoided superparasitism. This and other experiments suggest that the host assessment ability of O. ochracea is less than that reported for many hymenopteran parasitoids. by manipulating the number of larvae in each cricket, we determined that four to five larvae per host resulted in the largest number of adult flies. However, as larval number per host increased from one to six, pupal size, and hence adult size, declined. In the field, hosts were found with a mean of 1.7 ± 1.0 (SD) larvae per cricket, suggesting that there may be some selection pressure against larger clutch sizes. Nevertheless clutch sizes larger than the host can support were sometimes found in the field. During the first mode of larviposition, gravid flies deposited no more than three larvae directly onto the host. Larvae deposited directly on the host had a high probability of infesting it. During the second mode of larviposition, gravid flies laid a larger number of larvae around the host (6.1 ± 5.2). Larvae that were laid around the host were less likely to infest a cricket than were larvae that were deposited directly onto it. O. ochracea is unique in that its two different modes of larviposition have different probabilities of larval success. Even though the success rate for larvae laid during the second mode of larviposition was low, the possibility of parasitizing more hosts appears to have selected for flies laying more larvae (e.g. increasing clutch size) than is optimal if all the larvae successfully entered a single host.