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1.
The work outlined in this paper had three objectives. The first was to explore the effects of ozone pollution on grain yield and quality of commercially-grown winter wheat cultivars. The second was to derive a stomatal ozone flux model for winter wheat and compare with those already developed for spring wheat. The third was to evaluate exposure- versus flux–response approaches from a risk assessment perspective, and explore the implications of genetic variation in modelled ozone flux.Fifteen winter wheat cultivars were grown in open-top chambers where they were exposed to four levels of ozone. During fumigation, stomatal conductance measurements were made over the lifespan of the flag leaf across a range of environmental conditions. Although significant intra-specific variation in ‘ozone sensitivity’ (in terms of impacts on yield) was identified, yield was inversely related (R2 = 0.63, P < 0.001) to the accumulated hourly averaged ozone exposure above 40 ppb during daylight hours (AOT40) across the dataset. The adverse effect of ozone on yield was principally due to a decline in seed weight. Algorithms defining the influence of environmental variables on stomatal uptake were subtly different from those currently in use, based on data for spring wheat, to map ozone impacts on pan-European cereal yield. Considerable intra-specific variation in phenological effects was identified. This meant that an ‘average behaviour’ had to be derived which reduced the predictive capability of the derived stomatal flux model (R2 = 0.49, P < 0.001, 15 cultivars included). Indeed, given the intra-specific variability encountered, the flux model that was derived from the full dataset was no better in predicting O3 impacts on wheat yield than was the AOT40 index. The study highlights the need to use ozone risk assessment tools appropriate to specific vegetation types when modelling and mapping ozone impacts at the regional level.  相似文献   

2.
The transfer of Cd and Zn from soils amended with sewage sludge was followed through a food chain consisting of wheat, aphids and the predator Coccinella septempunctata. Multiple regression models were generated to predict the concentrations of Cd and Zn in C. septempunctata. No significant model could be generated for Cd, indicting that the concentration of this metal was maintained within relatively narrow limits. A model predicting 64% of the variability in the Zn concentration of C. septempunctata was generated from of the concentration of Zn in the diet, time and rate of Zn consumption. The results suggest that decreasing the rate of food consumption is an effective mechanism to prevent the accumulation of Zn and that the availability of Zn in the aphid prey increased with the concentration in the aphids. The results emphasise the importance of using ecologically relevant food chains and exposure pathways during ecotoxicological studies.  相似文献   

3.
Applications of a parameterised Jarvis-type multiplicative stomatal conductance model with data collated from open-top chamber experiments on field grown wheat and potato were used to derive relationships between relative yield and stomatal ozone uptake. The relationships were based on thirteen experiments from four European countries for wheat and seven experiments from four European countries for potato. The parameterisation of the conductance model was based both on an extensive literature review and primary data. Application of the stomatal conductance models to the open-top chamber experiments resulted in improved linear regressions between relative yield and ozone uptake compared to earlier stomatal conductance models, both for wheat (r2=0.83) and potato (r2=0.76). The improvement was largest for potato. The relationships with the highest correlation were obtained using a stomatal ozone flux threshold. For both wheat and potato the best performing exposure index was AFst6 (accumulated stomatal flux of ozone above a flux rate threshold of 6 nmol ozone m−2 projected sunlit leaf area, based on hourly values of ozone flux). The results demonstrate that flux-based models are now sufficiently well calibrated to be used with confidence to predict the effects of ozone on yield loss of major arable crops across Europe. Further studies, using innovations in stomatal conductance modelling and plant exposure experimentation, are needed if these models are to be further improved.  相似文献   

4.
Modeling the impact of ozone x drought interactions on regional crop yields   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The influence of soil moisture stress on crop sensitivity to O3 was evaluated for corn (Zea mays L.), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown in the United States. This assessment was accomplished by using yield forecasting models to estimate the influence of soil moisture deficits on regional yield and a previously developed model to predict moisture stress x O3 interactions. Reduced crop sensitivity to O3 was predicted for those regions and years for which soil moisture stress reduced yield. The models predicted a drought-induced reduction in crop sensitivity to O3 of approximately 20% for the 1979 to 1983 period; i.e. a hypothetical O3-induced yield reduction of 5% for adequately watered crops would have been reduced to a 4% effect by the 1979 to 1983 distribution of soil moisture deficits. However, predicted drought effects varied between crops, regions, and years. Uncertainties in the model predictions are also discussed.  相似文献   

5.
Crop Yield Gaps in Cameroon   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Although food crop yields per hectare have generally been increasing in Cameroon since 1961, the food price crisis of 2008 and the ensuing social unrest and fatalities raised concerns about the country’s ability to meet the food needs of its population. This study examines the country’s potential for increasing crop yields and food production to meet this food security challenge. Fuzzy set theory is used to develop a biophysical spatial suitability model for different crops, which in turn is employed to ascertain whether crop production is carried out in biophysically suited areas. We use linear regression to examine the trend of yield development over the last half century. On the basis of yield data from experimental stations and farmers’ fields we assess the yield gap for major food crops. We find that yields have generally been increasing over the last half century and that agricultural policies can have significant effects on them. To a large extent, food crops are cultivated in areas that are biophysically suited for their cultivation, meaning that the yield gap is not a problem of biophysical suitability. Notwithstanding, there are significantly large yield gaps between actual yields on farmers’ farms and maximum attainable yields from research stations. We conclude that agronomy and policies are likely to be the reasons for these large yield gaps. A key challenge to be addressed in closing the yield gaps is that of replenishing and properly managing soil nutrients.  相似文献   

6.
Modelling stomatal ozone flux across Europe   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
A model has been developed to estimate stomatal ozone flux across Europe for a number of important species. An initial application of this model is illustrated for two species, wheat and beech. The model calculates ozone flux using European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model ozone concentrations in combination with estimates of the atmospheric, boundary layer and stomatal resistances to ozone transfer. The model simulates the effect of phenology, irradiance, temperature, vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture deficit on stomatal conductance. These species-specific microclimatic parameters are derived from meteorological data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI), together with detailed land-use and soil type maps assembled at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Modelled fluxes are presented as mean monthly flux maps and compared with maps describing equivalent values of AOT40 (accumulated exposure over threshold of 40 ppb or nl l(-1)), highlighting the spatial differences between these two indices. In many cases high ozone fluxes were modelled in association with only moderate AOT40 values. The factors most important in limiting ozone uptake under the model assumptions were vapour pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture deficit (for Mediterranean regions in particular) and phenology. The limiting effect of VPD on ozone uptake was especially apparent, since high VPDs resulting in stomatal closure tended to co-occur with high ozone concentrations. Although further work is needed to link the ozone uptake and deposition model components, and to validate the model with field measurements, the present results give a clear indication of the possible implications of adopting a flux-based approach for future policy evaluation.  相似文献   

7.
Land-use regression models have increasingly been applied for air pollution mapping at typically the city level. Though models generally predict spatial variability well, the structure of models differs widely between studies. The observed differences in the models may be due to artefacts of data and methodology or underlying differences in source or dispersion characteristics. If the former, more standardised methods using common data sets could be beneficial. We compared land-use regression models for NO2 and PM10, developed with a consistent protocol in Great Britain (GB) and the Netherlands (NL).Models were constructed on the basis of 2001 annual mean concentrations from the national air quality networks. Predictor variables used for modelling related to traffic, population, land use and topography. Four sets of models were developed for each country. First, predictor variables derived from data sets common to both countries were used in a pooled analysis, including an indicator for country and interaction terms between country and the identified predictor variables. Second, the common data sets were used to develop individual baseline models for each country. Third, the country-specific baseline models were applied after calibration in the other country to explore transferability. The fourth model was developed using the best possible predictor variables for each country.A common model for GB and NL explained NO2 concentrations well (adjusted R2 0.64), with no significant differences in intercept and slopes between the two countries. The country-specific model developed on common variables for NL but not GB improved the prediction.The performance of models based upon common data was only slightly worse than models optimised with local data. Models transferred to the other country performed substantially worse than the country-specific models. In conclusion, care is needed both in transferring models across different study areas, and in developing large inter-regional LUR models.  相似文献   

8.
In this contribution, we propose fishery driven predator release as the cause for the largest grazing event ever observed in the NE Atlantic. Based on the evolving appreciation of limits to population connectivity, published and previously unpublished data, we discuss whether overfishing caused a grazer bloom of the sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) resulting in overgrazing of more than 2000 km2 kelp (Laminaria hyperborea) forest along Norwegian and Russian coasts during the 1970 s. We show that coastal fisheries likely depleted predatory coastal fish stocks through modernization of fishing methods and fleet. These fish were important predators on urchins and the reduction coincided with the urchin bloom. From this circumstantial evidence, we hypothesize that coastal predatory fish were important in regulating sea urchins, and that a local population dynamics perspective is necessary in management of coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

9.
Pea aphids feeding from birth to maturity on pea plants (Pisum sativum) exposed to SO(2) concentrations of 50 nl litre(-1) or 80 nl litre(-1) showed a significant 19% increase in the rate of nymph production during the reproductive period, compared to control aphids feeding on plants in charcoal-filtered air. The higher nymph production resulted in a mean 4.6% increase in the intrinsic rate of population increase (rm). In longer term glasshouse fumigation experiments pea aphid populations were, on average, 1.8 times greater on pea plants in ambient air plus 45 nl litre(-1) SO(2) than in ambient air alone. Aphid infestation in ambient air caused a 42% reduction in pea yield and affected most plant parameters adversely. Ambient air plus SO(2) had no direct effect on yield, but, in combination with aphid infestation, a further 10% reduction in yield was recorded.  相似文献   

10.
Effects of chronic application of a mixture of the herbicide atrazine and the insecticide lindane were studied in indoor freshwater plankton-dominated microcosms. The macroinvertebrate community was seriously affected at all but the lowest treatment levels, the zooplankton community at the three highest treatment levels, with crustaceans, caddisflies and dipterans being the most sensitive groups. Increased abundance of the phytoplankton taxa Cyclotella sp. was found at the highest treatment level. Threshold levels for lindane, both at population and community level, corresponded well with those reported in the literature. Atrazine produced fewer effects than expected, probably due to decreased grazer stress on the algae as a result of the lindane application. The safety factors set by the Uniform Principles for individual compounds were also found to ensure protection against chronic exposure to a mixture of a herbicide and insecticide at community level, though not always at the population level.  相似文献   

11.
Endosulfan in China 1—gridded usage inventories   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
Background, aim, and scope  Endosulfan, an organochlorine pesticide (OCP), is genotoxic in mammalian cells and generally considered to be toxic and classified by the World Health Organization and the US Environmental Protection Agency as priority pollutants and a nominator for inclusion in a future iteration of the persistent organic pollutants treaty. Endosulfan is a currently used pesticide and still being used worldwide. The general trend of total global endosulfan use has increased continuously since the first year when this pesticide was applied. It is critical to create national endosulfan usage/emission inventories for China to carry out source–receptor relation analysis, risk assessment, and other research related to endosulfan in this country. Chinese inventories have been published for some OCPs, such as technical HCH and lindane, DDT, and chlordane; for endosulfan, however, there has not been any usage inventory available on any scales (national or provincial), although endosulfan has been widely used since 1994 in this country. This is the first part of the work. The goal of this paper is to quantify the historical production and usage of endosulfan in China and to compile gridded historical usage inventories of endosulfan for this country. Based on these usage inventories, emission and residue inventories will be created, which is the goal of the second part of the work. Materials and methods  Due to the lack of national production and usage information of endosulfan in China, a method to estimate the use of endosulfan was developed. First, information of crops on which endosulfan is applied and average endosulfan use and annual application frequencies of endosulfan on these crops were collected. Secondly, usage of endosulfan on each crop was estimated using the national cropland area for each province from Chinese government reports. Finally, with the help of GIS (geographic information system), the usage data of this insecticide was allocated to a grid system, with a 1/4° longitude by 1/6° latitude resolution, with a size for each grid cell of approximately 25 km by 25 km. Results and discussion  The use of endosulfan in agriculture in China started on cotton in 1994, and on wheat, tea, tobacco, apples, and other fruits in 1998. Endosulfan usage on cotton, wheat, tea, tobacco, and apples in China has been estimated to be approximately 25,700 t between 1994 and 2004. The province with the highest usage of endosulfan is Henan Province, with a total usage reaching 4,000 t, followed by the uses in Xinjiang Autonomous Region (3,200 t), Shandong Province (3,000 t), Hebei Province (2,100 t), and Anhui Province (1,900 t). Gridded usage inventories of endosulfan at a 1/4° longitude by 1/6° latitude resolution have been created, which indicate that the intensive endosulfan use was in the south of Hebei Province, west of Shandong Province, east of Henan Province, north of Anhui Province, east of Jiangsu Province, and some areas in Yunnan Province and Xinjiang Autonomous Region. General agreement has been found between the usage data from our estimation and the small amount of usage data published in China. Conclusions  This is the first national gridded endosulfan usage inventory produced for China. The annual applications of endosulfan from 1994 to 2004 in China were estimated based on the total areas of major crops, on which endosulfan was applied, and spatial distribution of the application was generated at provincial and prefecture levels. With the help of GIS, endosulfan usage based on prefecture was transferred to a 1/4° longitude by 1/6° latitude gridding system. The satisfaction of the inventories was supported by the consistence between the estimation of the annual usage and the reported annual production of endosulfan. Recommendations and perspectives  This gridded endosulfan usage inventory created in this study will be improved upon availability of new information of endosulfan. The usage inventories can be used to create gridded emission and residue inventories for this insecticide. It is believed that this work will pave the way for further endosulfan studies in China and beyond.  相似文献   

12.
To predict how re-colonisation of acidified lakes will proceed, at least two approaches are possible: (i) to compare the life history traits of candidate species and determine which one has the highest fitness, and (ii) to simulate a more realistic scenario carrying out experiments with the grouping of the candidate species, so that the intrinsic rate of natural increase of each species is integrated with its sensitivity to low pH and its ability to compete with the other candidate populations. The objective of the present study was to investigate the future re-colonisation of such acidified systems, taking as case-study a tropical pond (Lagoa das Dunas, Camaçari, BA, Brazil) and four species of cladocerans occurring in nearby water bodies (Ceriodaphniacornuta, Ceriodaphniasilvestrii, Latonopsisaustralis and Macrothrix elegans), by comparing the two above mentioned approaches. The second approach included two sets of in situ microcosms experiments, one simulating the re-colonisation by immigrating ephippia, thus using neonates of each species as colonisers, and another simulating the immigration of adults. Both these simulations followed nearly the same trends. The integration of the effects of a higher temperature, a different photoperiod and species competition determined differences in the species densities ranking between the two approaches: life history versus microcosms. The densities of C.cornuta in the microcosms matched the biphasic concentration/response hormetic model, in the simultaneous presence of two increasingly intense stressors (interspecific competition and acidity), with a low-dose stimulation and a high-dose inhibition. The present study provided, thus, a further support to the acceptance of hormesis in ecotoxicology, also at the population level in multispecies experiments.  相似文献   

13.
The global urban population is increasing rapidly, but patterns of urban expansion differ greatly among countries. Urban transition theory predicts that the shift from low to high urbanization depends on a country’s history and level of economic development. This study describes urban expansion in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1992 and 2009. Urban dynamics were analyzed by combining nighttime lights and census data from 4032 municipalities. High-lit areas (>52–63 pixel values) were correlated with urban populations across municipalities and years (R 2 > 0.90). Analyses showed that between 1992 and 2009 Bolivia and Ecuador had rapid population growth and rapidly increasing high-lit areas, while Peru and Colombia had lower rates of population growth and urbanization (i.e., expansion of high-lit areas). We demonstrate how nighttime lights can be a useful tool, providing a homogeneous platform for multi-scale analyses of urban growth.  相似文献   

14.
Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O3] (31–50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O3], future [O3] (51–75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O3]. These findings confirm the rising [O3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.  相似文献   

15.
This paper presents phenological weighting factors to be applied to AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure above a threshold of 40 nl l(-1)) ozone exposure-response relationships for crops at different growth stages. The quantification of such factors represents a step-forward in the derivation of Level II critical levels for ozone. The weighting factors presented are derived from published literature on the sensitivity of wheat (Triticum aestivum), bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and plantain (Plantago major) to ozone at different growth stages. Weighting functions were calculated using either multiple linear regression or the reciprocal residual mean square (RMS(-1)). The resulting weights were transformed into multiplication factors to be applied to the monthly AOT40 during the 3-month assessment period of critical level exceedance. Interspecific differences were too large to allow for the development of a unified weighting function for the three species considered. For wheat grain yield, the derived multiplication factors varied by almost four-fold (0.40, 1.06, 1.54), while those for bean pod yield varied by only about 25% (0.85, 1.01, 1.14). The available data for plantain were restricted to short-term studies conducted under controlled conditions. These data were not suitable for the derivation of weighting factors comparable to those derived for bean and wheat. Based on known differences in wheat development and phenology across Europe, the need for a geographic differentiation of the time period for the calculation of the critical level exceedances is also discussed and examples provided of the adoption of the derived weightings in the mapping of critical level exceedances. Differences between critical level exceedance maps using weighted and unweighted AOT40 calculations are discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Previous estimates of dry deposition to water surfaces were generally based on deposition to flat, solid surfaces. This paper examines the effects of waves on dry deposition rates by numerically simulating particle trajectories over wave surfaces. Airflows over two-dimensional sine waves with height-to-length ratios 2a/λ=0.1, 0.07, and 0.03 were calculated with a commercial computational fluid dynamics model. Results from the airflow simulations (velocity, kinetic energy, energy dissipation rate, and shear stress) provided inputs for a stochastic particle trajectory model. Particles were released from a height of 300 non-dimensional wall units at different locations along the wave. For those between 1 and 20 μm, deposition was found to be greatest for particles released to the upslope portion of the wave, followed by the trough, crest and downslope. Overall deposition rates were enhanced due to the presence of waves. Increases ranged from 5% (dp=80 μm) to 100% (dp=1 μm) for waves with 2a/λ=0.07 and 0.1 and were approximately 50% greater (dp=1−80 μm) for 2a/λ=0.03. Deposition rates were enhanced due to increases in impaction and turbulent transport, both of which increase with increasing wave slope. However, an increased slope also produced regions of low or reversed flow in the trough and downslope, which decreased deposition rates. Due to these competing effects with respect to wave slope, deposition rates did not increase monotonically with wave slope.  相似文献   

17.
Macrofaunal activities in sediments modify nutrient fluxes in different ways including the expression of species-specific functional traits and density-dependent population processes. The invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria was first observed in the Baltic Sea in the 1980s. It has caused changes in benthic processes and affected the functioning of ecosystem services such as nutrient regulation. The large-scale effects of these changes are not known. We estimated the current Marenzelleria spp. wet weight biomass in the Baltic Sea to be 60–87 kton (95% confidence interval). We assessed the potential impact of Marenzelleria spp. on phosphorus cycling using a spatially explicit model, comparing estimates of expected sediment to water phosphorus fluxes from a biophysical model to ecologically relevant experimental measurements of benthic phosphorus flux. The estimated yearly net increases (95% CI) in phosphorous flux due to Marenzelleria spp. were 4.2–6.1 kton based on the biophysical model and 6.3–9.1 kton based on experimental data. The current biomass densities of Marenzelleria spp. in the Baltic Sea enhance the phosphorus fluxes from sediment to water on a sea basin scale. Although high densities of Marenzelleria spp. can increase phosphorus retention locally, such biomass densities are uncommon. Thus, the major effect of Marenzelleria seems to be a large-scale net decrease in the self-cleaning capacity of the Baltic Sea that counteracts human efforts to mitigate eutrophication in the region.  相似文献   

18.
A decision support system (DSS) involving an approach for predicting wheat leaf rust (WLR) infection and progress based on night weather variables (i.e., air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) and a mechanistic model for leaf emergence and development simulation (i.e., PROCULTURE) was tested in order to schedule fungicide time spray for controlling leaf rust progress in wheat fields. Experiments including a single fungicide treatment based upon the DSS along with double and triple treatment were carried out over the 2007–2009 cropping seasons in four representative Luxembourgish wheat field locations. The study showed that the WLR occurrences and severities differed according to the site, cultivar, and year. We also found out that the single fungicide treatment based on the DSS allowed a good protection of the three upper leaves of susceptible cultivars in fields with predominant WLR occurrences. The harvested grain yield was not significantly different from that of the double and triple fungicide-treated plots (P?<?0.05). Such results could serve as basis or be coupled to cost-effective and environmentally friendly crop management systems in operational context.  相似文献   

19.
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.  相似文献   

20.
The sensitivity of biogenic emission estimates and air quality model predictions to the characterization of land use/land cover (LULC) in southeastern Texas was examined using the Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System (GloBEIS) and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). A LULC database was recently developed for the region based on source imagery collected by the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper-Plus sensor between 1999 and 2003, and field data for land cover classification, species identification and quantification of biomass densities.  Biogenic emissions estimated from the new LULC data set showed good general agreement in their spatial distribution, but were approximately 40% lower than emissions from the LULC data set currently used by the State of Texas, primarily because of differences in the biomass estimates of key species such as Quercus. Predicted ozone mixing ratios using the biogenic emissions produced from the new LULC data set were as much as 26 ppb lower in some areas on some days, depending on meteorological conditions. Satellite data and image classification techniques provide useful tools for mapping and monitoring changes in LULC. However, field validation is necessary to link species and biomass densities to the classification system used for accurate biogenic emissions estimates, especially in areas such as riparian corridors that contain dense spatial coverage of key species.  相似文献   

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