Woody vegetation change in Sahelian West Africa: evidence from local knowledge

Vegetation changes in Sahelian West Africa have been increasingly investigated since 1970 due to the catastrophic droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s and the following decades with below average precipitation. In most cases this was done by remote sensing and vegetation studies. In recent years, local knowledge of farmers and pastoralists about vegetation changes has been increasingly investigated. In this paper, information from different case studies in three West African countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal) was used to analyse and evaluate vegetation changes in the Sahel. In total, data were analysed from 25 villages, where the local people were asked to mention plant species and qualify their present occurrence compared to the past. In total, 111 woody species were mentioned as having changed compared to the past, of which 79% were classified as having decreased or disappeared. For each single location 8–59 different woody species were mentioned. In most cases, these are valuable species of socio-economic importance. Only 11% of the species was classified as increasing or new (0–12 were mentioned per location), the later being mainly exotic species. Ten percent were categorised differently among villages. A comparison of local knowledge from different locations provide regional scale information on endangered species and thereby crucial information for making insightful priorities for assisted regeneration, reforestation and conservation strategies.     

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food security risks, because their populations are, for example, more reliant on agriculture and more vulnerable to droughts and have a lower adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the health-related impacts of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development policies. The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. Climate change cannot be seen as ‘a stand-alone risk factor,’ but rather as an amplifier of existing health and food security risks and an additional strain on institutional infrastructures. In order to avoid a multiplication of health risks in the developing world, there is a need to better understand the multifaceted and complex linkages involved. This is further illustrated for two important climate change–induced health risks, namely malnutrition and malaria. As the amplification of existing and emerging health risks in the developing world might become the greatest tragedy of climate change, adaptation ranks high on developing countries’ agendas. Of particular importance are the discussions about the ‘Green Climate Fund,’ which aims to administer billions of dollars for mitigation and adaptation. Of course, making funds for adaptation available is an important first step, but we also need to ask ourselves the question how such adaptation policies and projects should take shape. This paper demonstrates that an adequate response to climate change health risks should take a systems approach toward adaptation, acknowledging the importance of the local context of the most vulnerable.     

Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

Climate change,sustainable water management and institutional adaptation in rural sub-Saharan Africa

Much current work on climate adaptation options vis-à-vis water management in rural sub-Saharan Africa has tended to focus more on technological and infrastructural alternatives and less on institutional alternatives. Yet, vulnerability to climate variability and change in these contexts is a function not just of biophysical outcomes but also of institutional factors that can vary significantly at relatively finer scales. This paper seeks to contribute towards closing this gap by examining institutional options for sustainable water management in rural SSA in the context of climate change and variability. It explores challenges for transforming water-related institutions and puts forward institutional alternatives towards adapting to increasingly complex conditions created by climate change and variability. The paper suggests revisiting the Integrated Water Resources Management approach which has dominated water institutional debates and reforms in Africa over the recent past, towards actively adopting resilience and adaptive management lenses in crafting water institutional development initiatives.     

Climate change adaptation,flood risks and policy coherence in integrated water resources management in England

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less ‘integrated’ in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed.

     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserve.     

Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Regional Environmental Change - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A...     

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress, human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be addressed, including water stress, land use and food security, natural disasters and environmental migration. A few regional hot spots of climate security will be discussed, such as land-use conflicts in Northern Africa; floods, sea-level rise and human security in Southern Asia; glacier melting and water insecurity in Central Asia and Latin America; water conflicts in the Middle East; climate security in the Mediterranean; and the potential impact on rich countries. Finally, concepts and strategies will be considered to minimize the security risks and move from conflict to cooperation in climate policy.     

Climate change impact on countrywide water balance in Bolivia

There is increasing concern about the ongoing reduction in water supplies in the tropical Andes due to climate change effects such as glacier/snow melting resulting from rising air temperatures. In addition, extreme events and population growth are already directly affecting life and water renewability in the country. A countrywide integrated national plan for improving basin-scale water management in Bolivia is needed to assure water availability for agriculture, industry, mining, and human consumption. This study aims to provide a modeling tool to assess Bolivia’s past, current, and future water availability and identify basins at risk of water deficits. The Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate the monthly water balance from 1997 to 2008, as well as the water balance projected to 2050 for the entire country. It considers possible changes in air temperatures and precipitation proposed by 17 Global Circulation Models as well as carbon dioxide projections derived from the Special Report Emission Scenario. Overall, model results were close to satisfactory compared to observations, with some exceptions due to lack of information for expanding the timeline and improving calibration. Based on the calculation of three hydrologic indicators, the study identifies basins that would be the most susceptible to water deficits for a baseline from 1997 to 2008, and in the event of the projected climate change, to 2050.     

Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security

Sub-Saharan Africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. This article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; and assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. From the review, it is apparent that the climate in Africa is already exhibiting significant changes, evident by changes in average temperature, change in amount of rainfall and patterns and the prevalence of frequency and intensity of weather extremes. The review also revealed that although uncertainties exist with regards to the magnitude of impacts, climate will negatively affect agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, as result of current and expected climate change, the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. These impacts will affect all components of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation and food stability and hence increase the risk of hunger in the region. The review thus confirms the general consensus that Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change. It suggests that, policymakers and development agencies should focus on formulating and implementing policies and programmes that promote farm level adaptation strategies currently being practiced by farmers across the region.     

Climate change,flooding in South Asia and implications

South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas.     

Climate change can reduce shrimp catches in equatorial Brazil

Regional Environmental Change - Shrimps are an important and valuable fishing resource, being increasingly exploited worldwide, demanding appropriate management. However, factors such as how...     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.     

Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia

Regional Environmental Change - Understanding popular attitudes to climate change can be important in developing effective climate adaptation responses. However, in the Pacific region, which is at...