Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Deltas at risk

The long-term sustainability of populated deltas is often more affected by large-scale engineering projects than sea-level rise associated with global warming and the global ocean volume increase. On deltas, the rate of relative eustatic sea-level rise is often smaller than the rate for isostatic-controlled subsidence and of the same order of magnitude as natural sediment compaction. Accelerated compaction associated with petroleum and groundwater mining can exceed natural subsidence rates by an order of magnitude. The reduction in sediment delivery to deltas due to trapping behind dams, along with the human control of routing river discharge across delta plains, contributes to the sinking of world deltas. Consequences include shoreline erosion, threatened mangroves swamps and wetlands, increased salinization of cultivated land, and hundreds of millions of humans put at risk.     

河口三角洲地表水文连通性研究进展

三角洲通常位于河流与湖泊、海洋等大型地表水体的过渡带,分布全球约8%人口。受地势低缓、流域来沙减少和海平面上升等多因素作用,三角洲系统被认为是诸多地表类型中高度敏感和脆弱的地带。近年来,地表水文连通性成为三角洲水文水动力领域新的热点问题。通过国内外相关文献调研,系统阐述了水文连通性概念、三角洲地表水文连通性组成以及三角洲形态和水文连通性的联系。研究表明:三角洲地表水文连通性可分为结构连通性、功能连通性和过程连通性;基于图论方法的结构连通性仅表征河网在三角洲水文连通性的作用,而功能连通性和过程连通性反映水文水动力要素的空间分布及其与气象等环境要素的耦合关系,但亟需有效的野外观测和调查数据;三角洲形态与水文连通性存在一定联系,部分形态指标可用于刻画三角洲地表水文连通程度。因三角洲具有高度时空异质性和复杂地形地貌等特点,从学科发展趋势和应用需求的角度出发,未来应综合采用野外观测、数理统计和数值模拟等多学科交叉的研究策略,为三角洲湿地生态系统应对当前快速变化环境等重大问题提供科学依据。     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

Developing an integrated framework to assess agri-food systems and its application in the Ecuadorian Andes

Agri-food systems assessment can be performed following official and alternative framings, each linked to different objects of study, methods of analysis, and policy responses. Alternative frames conceptualize agri-food systems as the integration and interaction of humans and the agro-environment (i.e., as socio-ecological systems). This conceptualization allows studying the cross-level, cross-scale, and nonlinear interactions within and between the components of the system and help assess policy proposals, such as food sovereignty, in a more systemic way. To facilitate this, we link reflections and methodologies from complex system thinking and vulnerability studies applied to agri-food systems to propose an integrated framework of assessment, which links the agroecological context and the social function of agriculture, considering actor’s agency and institutional processes. This framework is suitable to analyze agri-food systems in fragile and marginal environments such as the Andean region. We apply the framework to assess vulnerability of local agri-food systems to global change in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, taking into account the role of peasant institutions (agroecological associations, comunas) and indigenous culture. The framework also allows understanding how agri-food policies change the configuration of agri-food systems and determines whether these changes are consistent with communities’ livelihoods reproduction.     

The structure of genotypic diversity and the possibility of sexual reproduction in populations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tulipa riparia</Emphasis> (Liliaceae)

The structure of genotypic diversity in eight populations of the clonal triploid (2n = 3x = 36) tulip Tulipa riparia inhabiting floodplain communities in the Southern Urals was studied. Analysis of nine polymorphic enzyme systems (ADH, IDH, SkDH, PGI, PGM, FDH, NADHdh, C-EST, GOT) was performed to identify clones. Both monoclonal (D = 0) and polyclonal populations with multiple genotypes from 3 to 12 (D from 0.73 to 0.91) were identified. The polyclonal populations had a high level of heterozygosity. Dispersal of propagules (bulbs) along rivers and even from one bank of a river to the opposite was detected. Some clones disperse along riverbanks to the distance of hundreds meters (up to four kilometres). At the same time, there is an effect of “isolated” or “closed” populations. Almost each sequentially arranged population in one river system have its own set of genotypes. Assessment of the state of the reproductive system components indicates presence of a rare sexual reproduction supporting genetic diversity of T. riparia.     

Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia: evidence from Bangladesh

The anadromous fish species Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) constitutes the largest single fishery in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. River Meghna is the important habitat for Hilsa as the major breeding and nursing grounds are situated along this portion of the river. In this paper, we investigate fishers’ perceptions on effect of climate change and anthropogenic impact on Hilsa fishery at lower Meghna. Fishers’ ecological knowledge indicates that the stock of Hilsa is declining due to several adverse climatic conditions such as increased water temperature, salinity intrusion and low freshwater discharge from upstream. Fishers believe that dams and polders have immense effect on river sedimentation which already blockade several upward migratory route of Hilsa. Fishers’ experience shows that intensity of coastal cyclone is gradually increasing, which causes severe physical and economical damage. The study also indicates that the major constraints to adopt with the change situation are low level of human capital and restricted access to the formal credit system. Therefore, incorporation of local knowledge in governmental policy formulation and public support to improve human skill are essential for the adaptive management.     

Overcoming barriers to sustainability by combining conceptual,visual, and networking systems

Sustainability challenges rarely align with the conventional boundaries of our disciplines, institutions and means of communication. To address these challenges amid real-world complexity, we need to think holistically and collaborate across disciplines. In this paper, we synthesise three themes: (1) more integrated conceptual frameworks; (2) digital visual communication which provides fluid expression of complex ideas and perceptions; and (3) online networks which can empower sustainability initiatives and communicate them across social and institutional barriers at a global scale. Each of these tools can help to overcome persistent barriers to sustainability. When used together, they provide a strategic basis for the design of digital collaboration platforms for addressing sustainability challenges. Using design thinking, we developed a Synergy Map which identifies relationships among a number of barriers to sustainability and conceptual and digital tools which help to address them. The Map identifies the potential for synthesising these tools into effective digital artefacts. We provide several examples and identify characteristics of particular value for overcoming barriers to sustainability. Combining new theoretical developments in sustainability sciences with recent advances in communication and networking technologies offers substantial potential for advancing sustainability on multiple fronts.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Developmental Stability of the Skull in the Pygmy Wood Mouse (Mammalia,Rodentia) along Altitudinal Gradient in the Western and Central Caucasus

To assess the stability of individual development of the pygmy wood mouse (Apodemus uralensis) in mountain areas with different ecogeographic conditions, the levels of fluctuating asymmetry in a series of skull phenes have been evaluated in ten samples from the Western and Central Caucasus. Attention has been focused on the influence of change in environmental conditions along the elevational gradient and the impact of some anthropogenic factors. An increase in the index of fluctuation asymmetry FA_nm has been revealed in samples from populations exposed to pollutants and, in the absence of pollution, from areas where the average annual temperature drops below 5°С (mid-mountain regions). Instability of skull development observed in A. uralensis from the foothills of the Western Caucasus may be a consequence of competitive relationships with the Black Sea field mouse A. ponticus, a sympatric species that inhabits the same biotopes as does A. uralensis but numerically prevails over it.     

Evolutionary social and biogeophysical changes in the Amazon,Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, provision of goods, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. Here, we show how the analysis of available time-series in tropical delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics in deltaic regions. The paper provides an exploratory analysis of the recent changes that have occurred in the major elements of three tropical deltaic social-ecological systems, such as demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes, and Earth observation data are analysed to explore possible trends, slow and fast variables, and observed drivers of change in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services, such as water availability, water quality, and land stability appear to be deteriorating. In the Amazon delta, natural and anthropogenic perturbations are continuously degrading key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage in biomass and soils, the regulation of water balance, and the modulation of regional climate patterns. In the Mekong delta, rapid economic development, changing land-use practices, and salinity intrusion are progressively putting more pressure on the delivery of important provisioning services, such as rice and inland aquaculture production, which are key sources of staple food, farm incomes, and export revenue. Observed changes in many key indicators of ecosystem services point to a changing dynamic state and increased probability of systemic threshold transformations in the near future.     

Biological responses to nine powerful typhoons in the East China Sea

Using multi-satellite remote sensing and numerical model data, we investigated the biological responses to nine powerful typhoons that affected the East China Sea (ECS) between 2010 and 2013. The spatial distribution patterns of the surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in response to the passage of typhoons were quite different. Some typhoons clearly induced phytoplankton blooms in part of the surface seawater, whereas the Chl-a concentrations were not significantly altered by the other typhoons. In the case that the ocean’s precondition was similar, the pre-typhoon Chl-a concentration and transit time were the main factors that affected the post-typhoon Chl-a concentration. Besides strong vertical mixing and upwelling, the surface current change and heavy precipitation induced by the typhoons also influenced the distribution and growth of phytoplankton in surface seawater after passage of individual typhoons. In addition, the typhoons that directly affected coastal regions increased the nutrient concentrations in these areas, which influenced the occurrence of red tides in the ECS over a long time scale.     

Influence of global change on phytoplankton and nutrient cycling in the Elbe River

The effects of changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions on the water quality of the Elbe River were investigated using the deterministic model QSim. Since the impact of global change on river water quality marks the endpoint of various processes in the catchment and in the atmosphere, this study was performed within a network of interacting models that determined input parameters for water quality simulations. The development of phytoplankton and nutrient concentrations under conditions of global change was modeled along a 700 km stretch of the river. The simulations revealed a strong, scale-dependent effect of climate change on phytoplankton biomass, leading to a longitudinal shift of the dominating processes (primary productivity vs. respiration) along the river continuum. Under reduced flow, combined with increasing temperature and global radiation, phytoplankton biomass increased and phytoplankton maxima shifted in upstream direction, followed by higher system respiration rates in the adjacent downstream sections. In contrast, higher flow shifted the phytoplankton maximum toward the downstream sections. Even a drastic reduction of phosphorus inputs from anthropogenic sources had only limited influence on algal biomass, due to the ability of algal cells to store phosphorus. A strong reduction in P-inputs especially in the headwaters would be necessary to counterbalance the possible climate-induced effects on algal biomass.     

Trends in environmental education for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is internationally recognized for its abundant biodiversity and being a leader in the promotion of education strategies for biodiversity conservation. We interviewed staff from 16 institutions developing key environmental communication, education, and participation projects for biodiversity conservation in the country. Through content analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and Chi-square tests, we examined the characteristics of the projects carried out by these institutions and developed a typology of four categories derived from six variables: primary audience, content, project purpose, location, scale, and facility. Then, we designed a conceptual model describing the integration of conservation and economic development in the educational projects. We found two key approaches related to this integration: vision of nature protection which aims to inform audiences of ecological concepts and focuses on schoolchildren and vision of sustainability which engages adult audiences and is management-oriented. Education for community-based environmental management may serve as a good example of educational projects which integrate conservation and economic development, implementing a vision of sustainability.     

Relict communities and populations of petrophilous plant species in northern regions of Sverdlovsk oblast and problems in their conservation

An inventory of rock vegetation has been taken in river valleys on the eastern slope of the southern part of the Northern Urals and the northern part of the Middle Urals. New habitats of some rare plant species, relict communities of forest-steppe species at the northern limit of their distribution, and ultrasmall populations of petrophilous species growing in isolation for a long time have been revealed. In studies on a group of similar specially protected areas (e.g., within river valleys), it is proposed to identify key sites distinguished by the highest species richness of vegetation     

Inhibition of restorative succession by invasive plant species: Examples from southeastern Belarus

Consideration is given to the examples of suppression of restorative succession by invasive plant species (Solidago canadensis L., Helianthus subcanescens (A. Gray) E. Watson, Impatiens glandulifera Royle) in anthropogenic landscapes of southeastern Belarus. Characteristics of communities blocking the succession process have been revealed: low species richness, dominance of alien species in coverage, high level of synanthropization, and the absence of natural regeneration of trees and shrubs. It is suggested that a delay in succession is caused by the suppressing influence of transformer species on seed germination in apophytic trees.     

Policy entrepreneurs in international river basins—getting climate adaptation on the cross-border water policy agenda

In this study, we look at the role which water policy entrepreneurs play in promoting and stimulating climate adaptation measures in international river basins. In a Dutch-German case study in the Rhine delta, we explore the range of strategies that policy entrepreneurs employ in cross-border water management to effectively anchor and embed climate adaptation in the water policy debate.

We focus on climate adaptation on the local and regional scale in the Deltarhine region where increased flooding and prolonged drought periods are expected under the current climate change scenarios with a considerable impact on flood protection, agricultural activities, drinking water and ecosystem development.

We analyse the impact of policy entrepreneurs while coping with the challenging cross-border setting and dealing with structural differences in national systems such as the legal and institutional framework. It is shown that whilst the European water guidelines advocate a river basin approach across borders, the guidelines do not (yet) play a catalyst role regarding climate adaptation, and the presence and activities of policy entrepreneurs contribute in putting climate adaptation on the cross-border policy agenda.

Finally, marked differences in the presence of entrepreneurs in Germany and the Netherlands are observed for which two important complementary explanations are offered relating to contextual elements of power asymmetry and dependency as well as different policy styles and organisational cultures in both countries.

     

An examination of ecological risk assessment and management practices

Ecological risk assessment has grown and evolved since the 1980s, as have new challenges (e.g. global climate change, loss of habitat and biodiversity and the effects of multiple anthropogenic chemicals on ecological systems) that need to be factored into the risk assessment processes. There is also an on-going shift from evaluating adverse health impacts on particular, often small scale, environments to undertaking more complex ecological assessments of whole populations and communities across ecologically meaningful landscapes. These trends are generating an increased demand for much more complex ecological assessments, making it increasingly clear that to achieve its potential as a management tool, methods must be developed to apply ecological risk assessment to larger and more complex scales. This paper reviews the development of the ecological risk assessment paradigm in the United States, identifies ways it is being applied and adapted in other countries, explores future research needs and practice improvements, and examines current issues that need to be considered in taking forward the scientific development of ecological risk assessment as a useful environmental management tool.     

Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? A geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta of Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh is one of the most populous deltas in the world, supporting as many as 140 million people. The delta is threatened by diverse environmental stressors including salinity intrusion, with adverse consequences for livelihood and health. Shrimp farming is recognised as one of the few economic adaptations to the impacts of the rapidly salinizing delta. Although salinity intrusion and shrimp farming are geographically co-located in the delta, there has been no systematic study to examine their geospatial associations with poverty. In this study, we use multiple data sources including Census, Landsat Satellite Imagery and soil salinity survey data to examine the extent of geospatial clustering of poverty within the delta and their associative relationships with salinity intensity and shrimp farming. The analysis was conducted at the union level, which is the lowest local government administrative unit in Bangladesh. The findings show a strong clustering of poverty in the delta, and whilst different intensities of salinization are significantly associated with increasing poverty, neither saline nor freshwater shrimp farming has a significant association with poverty. These findings suggest that whilst shrimp farming may produce economic growth, in its present form it has not been an effective adaptation for the poor and marginalised areas of the delta. The study demonstrates that there are a series of drivers of poverty in the delta, including salinization, water logging, wetland/mudflats, employment, education and access to roads, amongst others that are discernible spatially, indicating that poverty alleviation programmes in the delta require strengthening with area-specific targeted interventions.     

The use of biomass production and allometric models to estimate carbon sequestration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jatropha curcas</Emphasis> L. plantations in western Burkina Faso

The topic of carbon sequestration in plants has received much attention recently due to concerns about global climate change, which is being exacerbated by deforestation. In the early days of the global bioenergy boom, the private sector and non-government organizations enthusiastically promoted the planting of Jatropha curcas L. as a key candidate shrub species for the production of bioenergy in West Africa. This study investigates the aboveground biomass production and carbon sequestration potential of J. curcas, which is already widely cultivated for the production of oil seeds, biodiesel and biokerosene. The specific objective is to use a destructive method to develop allometric prediction equations of the aboveground biomass production of J. curcas plantations. 38 J. curcas shrubs were harvested and weighed in order to estimate biomass production. These data were used to develop allometric equations for the estimation of wood, leaf and total aboveground biomass production. The best-fit models found for estimating shrub component biomass and total aboveground biomass production were of the power form. All of the regression equations relating the prediction of leaf biomass, wood biomass and total aboveground biomass with J. curcas diameter at 20 cm above the ground (D) were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and also presented the highest goodness of fit (high R ²). The aboveground biomass carbon content was estimated using the ash method. Carbon content in leaves and wood was, respectively, 48 and 54 %. The current established allometric equations can be helpful to provide a rapid estimation of the aboveground biomass and C stock for J. curcas biofuel projects in semi-arid conditions.