Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.     

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year^?1 for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year^?1 for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.     

Biogeochemical Control of the Coupled CO2–O2 System of the Baltic Sea: A Review of the Results of Baltic-C

Past, present, and possible future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base and oxygen balances were studied using different numerical experiments and a catchment–sea model system in several scenarios including business as usual, medium scenario, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. New CO₂ partial pressure data provided guidance for improving the marine biogeochemical model. Continuous CO₂ and nutrient measurements with high temporal resolution helped disentangle the biogeochemical processes. These data and modeling indicate that traditional understandings of the nutrient availability–organic matter production relationship do not necessarily apply to the Baltic Sea. Modeling indicates that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, increased mineralization and biological production will amplify the seasonal surface pH cycle. The direction and magnitude of future pH changes are mainly controlled by atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Apart from decreasing pH, we project a decreasing calcium carbonate saturation state and increasing hypoxic area.     

Temporal trends in the bioaccumulation of trace metals in herring, sprat, and cod from the southern Baltic Sea in the 1994–2003 period

This study is based on raw data obtained from 1 225 samples of herring (Clupea harengus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and cod (Gadus morhua) collected in the 1994–2003 period from the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of investigations of the contents of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in fish. The aim was to identify temporal trends in trace metal contamination and variations in the concentrations of Hg in the flesh of herring, sprat, and cod of different lengths. A positive correlation between fish length and Hg concentration was noted for cod, sprat, and herring. The temporal trend analyses of heavy metal concentrations in the fish in the 1994–2003 period indicated ten significant downward trends out of eighteen tests; these referred to concentrations of Cd, Hg, and Pb in all the species studied, and to As in sprat. Concentrations of Cu and Zn remained stable in all the species studied, as did As in herring and cod. No upward trends were detected in the concentration of trace metals in the fish studied. Smaller scale temporal variations in concentrations of some elements were also observed and were associated with natural events, such as increased river discharge resulting from floods. The most likely factors which contributed to the observed downward trends in heavy metals concentrations in fish could possibly stem from lesser quantities of Cd, Pb, and Hg being introduced to the Baltic Sea with the waters of rivers from Baltic countries, including Poland, and atmospheric depositions in the 1994–2003 period. Diminishing trends of concentrations of these elements in Baltic Sea waters are also evidence of this. These facts might indicate that advantageous changes are occurring in the concentrations of heavy metals in the southern Baltic environment.     

Dioxin concentrations in sediments of the Baltic Sea--a survey of existing data

Recent survey results for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) in Baltic Sea sediments from Finland, Sweden and Denmark were merged with previously published Baltic Sea data. Regional distribution of concentration levels, differences in congener patterns, and temporal changes in sediment profiles were examined. One of the main objectives was to study if any major point sources for different PCDD/F congeners could be identified on a regional scale, based on sediment records. The survey confirmed the impact of chlorophenol production derived highly chlorinated PCDF-congeners on the total toxicity in sediments in the Gulf of Finland near the Kymijoki river estuary. Signatures of other point sources or combined point sources pertinent to specific industry branches or particular production processes (such as pulp bleaching, vinyl chloride production, thermal processes) may be discerned. However, the findings did not support any of the known point sources significantly influencing those congeners that are most abundant in Baltic herring and salmon. Instead, regional distributions in the Baltic Sea indicate that atmospheric deposition may act as a major source for those congeners and especially for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. There were clear indications of declines in levels in sediment in some areas, but generally the levels of highly chlorinated PCDD/Fs on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland were still high when compared with other areas of the Baltic Sea. Major areas with data gaps cover the south-eastern and eastern coastal regions of the Baltic Proper and the southern Gulf of Finland.     

Validation of the integrated RAMS-Hg modelling system using wet deposition observations for eastern North America

Using the well-known Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) version 4.3 an integrated system able to simulate the atmospheric mercury cycle has been developed. Basic processes of the mercury atmospheric cycle have been incorporated into the atmospheric model. The model deals with elemental Hg (Hg⁰), divalent gaseous Hg (Hg²) and particulate Hg (Hg^P). Wet deposition mechanisms used to describe the removal of Hg² and Hg^P are merged with the detailed cloud microphysical scheme in order to provide better representation of the wet deposition processes. The advantages of this approach have been examined through results intercomparison with simulated Hg wet deposition using CMAQ-Hg from previous work for two evaluation periods: 4 April–2 May 1995, and 20 June–18 July 1995. An attempt to clarify the main parameters that affect wet deposition mechanism of mercury is also made.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Assessing the risk of N leaching from forest soils across a steep N deposition gradient in Sweden

Nitrogen leaching from boreal and temporal forests, where normally most of the nitrogen is retained, has the potential to increase acidification of soil and water and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In parts of Sweden, where the nitrogen deposition has been intermediate to high during recent decades, there are indications that the soils are close to nitrogen saturation. In this study, four different approaches were used to assess the risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in different parts of Sweden. Nitrate concentrations in soil water and C:N ratios in the humus layer where interpreted, together with model results from mass balance calculations and detailed dynamic modelling. All four approaches pointed at a risk of nitrogen leaching from forest soils in southern Sweden. However, there was a substantial variation on a local scale. Basing the assessment on four different approaches makes the assessment robust.     

Identifying source regions for the atmospheric input of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea

PCDD/F contamination of the Baltic Sea has resulted in the European Union imposing restrictions on the marketing of several fish species. Atmospheric deposition is the major source of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea, and hence there is a need to identify the source regions of the PCDD/Fs in ambient air over the Baltic Sea. A novel monitoring strategy was employed to address this question. During the winter of 2006–2007 air samples were collected in Aspvreten (southern Sweden) and Pallas (northern Finland). Short sampling times (24 h) were employed and only samples with stable air mass back trajectories were selected for analysis of the 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F congeners. The range in the PCDD/F concentrations from 40 samples collected at Aspvreten was a factor of almost 50 (range 0.6–29 fg TEQ/m³). When the samples were grouped according to air mass origin into seven compass sectors, the variability was much lower (typically less than a factor of 3). This indicates that air mass origin was the primary source of the variability. The contribution of each sector to the PCDD/F contamination over the Baltic Sea during the winter half year of 2006/2007 was calculated from the average PCDD/F concentration for each sector and the frequency with which the air over the Baltic Sea came from that sector. Air masses originating from the south–southwest, south–southeast and east segments contributed 65% of the PCDDs and 75% of the PCDFs. Strong correlations were obtained between the concentrations of most of the PCDD/F congeners and the concentration of soot. These correlations can be used to predict the PCDD/F concentrations during the winter half year from inexpensive soot measurements.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Trace metals in flounder, Platichthys flesus (Linnaeus, 1758), and sediments from the Baltic Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast

Trace metals were examined in the muscle tissue of flatfish species of flounder, Platichthys flesus (Linnaeus, 1758), sediments from two southern Baltic Sea sites (Gdańsk Bay and Ustecko-?ebskie as a reference) and in two areas of the Portuguese Atlantic coast (Douro River estuary and Atlantic fishing ground as a reference) to evaluate spatial differences in trace metals. Additionally, the accumulation of trace metals in flounder of different length classes was assessed. Flounder from the Gdańsk Bay area contained twofold more cupper (Cu), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) than did flounder from the Douro River estuary, but zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) were at similar concentrations. The sediments from Gdańsk Bay contained significantly more Zn and threefold more Cd, while concentrations of Cu and Pb were twofold lower. The concentrations of metals in the sediments did not correlate with those in the flounder. Spatial differences were noted in metal concentrations in flounder from the southern Baltic Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast as well as within these regions, with higher concentrations in the flounder from the Baltic Sea Gdańsk Bay. The flounder in length class 25–30 cm from Gdańsk Bay contained metal concentrations comparable to those of class 40–45 cm specimens from the Atlantic coast. The accumulation of metals in flounder length classes differed in the two regions.     

Speciated particle dry deposition to the sea surface: results from ASEPS ’97

It has been postulated that atmospheric pathways may comprise a significant source of nitrogen for aquatic ecosystems and excess atmospheric deposition to coastal areas may be a major cause of eutrophication. Dry deposition of nitrogen containing particles is a potential, but poorly quantified pathway, for atmospheric nitrogen flux. This pathway is not well quantified because deposition velocities for particles are difficult to calculate and incorporate substantial uncertainties. Herein we employ an amended version of the Hummelshøj et al. (1992, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Precipitation Scavenging and Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Processes. AMS, Richland, Washington, USA, 12pp.) model to calculate size-segregated dry deposition of particle inorganic nitrogen compounds to the western Baltic during the late Spring of 1997 based on data collected as part of the Air–Sea Exchange Process Study (ASEPS). The results show that over a 15 d period in April and May dry deposition fluxes varied between 30 and 400 μg m^-2 d^-1 for nitrate and 1 and 120 μg m^-2 d^-1 for ammonium. Sensitivity analyses run to assess the potential bounds on actual dry deposition indicate that, for reasonable variation of model parameters and formulation, particle nitrogen dry deposition may be varied by up to an order of magnitude. The primary sources of uncertainty are identified and are discussed in the context of alternative model formulations.     

Concentrations of cadmium and other metals in Fucus vesiculosus L. and Fontinalis dalecarlica Br. Eur. from the northern Baltic Sea and the southern Bothnian Sea

Concentrations of Cd and ten other metals (Al, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) were determined in the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus L. and the aquatic moss, Fontinalis dalecarlica Br. Eur. from the northern Baltic Sea and the southern Bothnian Sea. Elevated concentrations of metals were found in samples taken close to densely populated areas, such as Stockholm and Nyn?shamn. Very high concentrations of especially Zn were found in both Fucus and Fontinalis samples taken from the area south of the Gulf of G?vle. The results indicate that mining and industrial activities along the river Dal?lven are the main sources of Zn and several other metals. Cd concentrations in Fucus plants reached maximum values (24.5 mg kg(-1)) at the northern site. The gradual increase of Cd concentrations in Fucus plants northward could not be totally explained by the salinity gradient in the Baltic Sea; reasons for this are discussed in this paper.     

How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups

Increasing partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ is causing ocean pH to fall—a process known as ‘ocean acidification’. Scenario modeling suggests that ocean acidification in the Baltic Sea may cause a ≤3 times increase in acidity (reduction of 0.2–0.4 pH units) by the year 2100. The responses of most Baltic Sea organisms to ocean acidification are poorly understood. Available data suggest that most species and ecologically important groups in the Baltic Sea food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, cod and sprat) will be robust to the expected changes in pH. These conclusions come from (mostly) single-species and single-factor studies. Determining the emergent effects of ocean acidification on the ecosystem from such studies is problematic, yet very few studies have used multiple stressors and/or multiple trophic levels. There is an urgent need for more data from Baltic Sea populations, particularly from environmentally diverse regions and from controlled mesocosm experiments. In the absence of such information it is difficult to envision the likely effects of future ocean acidification on Baltic Sea species and ecosystems.     

Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.     

Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition in the Vicinity of Power Plants

Abstract

Two mathematical models of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury (Hg), an Eulerian grid–based model and a Gaussian plume model, are used to calculate the atmospheric deposition of Hg in the vicinity (i.e., within 50 km) of five coal–fired power plants. The former is applied using two different horizontal resolutions: coarse (84 km) and fine (16.7 km). More than 96% of the power plant Hg emissions are calculated with the plume model to be transported beyond 50 km from the plants. The grid–based model predicts a lower fraction to be transported beyond 50 km: >91% with a coarse resolution and >95% with a fine resolution. The contribution of the power plant emissions to total Hg deposition within a radius of 50 km from the plants is calculated to be <8% with the plume model, <14% with the Eulerian model with a coarse resolution, and <10% with the Eulerian model with a fine resolution. The Eulerian grid–based model predicts greater local impacts than the plume model because of artificially enhanced vertical dispersion; the former predicts about twice as much Hg deposition as the latter when the area considered is commensurate with the resolution of the grid–based model. If one compares the local impacts for an area that is significantly less than the grid–based model resolution, then the grid–based model may predict lower local deposition than the plume model, because two compensating errors affect the results obtained with the grid–based model: initial dilution of the power plant emissions within one or more grid cells and enhanced vertical mixing to the ground.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Nitrogen fixation estimates for the Baltic Sea indicate high rates for the previously overlooked Bothnian Sea

Dense blooms of diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria are formed every summer in the Baltic Sea. We estimated their contribution to nitrogen fixation by combining two decades of cyanobacterial biovolume monitoring data with recently measured genera-specific nitrogen fixation rates. In the Bothnian Sea, estimated nitrogen fixation rates were 80 kt N year⁻¹, which has doubled during recent decades and now exceeds external loading from rivers and atmospheric deposition of 69 kt year⁻¹. The estimated contribution to the Baltic Proper was 399 kt N year⁻¹, which agrees well with previous estimates using other approaches and is greater than the external input of 374 kt N year⁻¹. Our approach can potentially be applied to continuously estimate nitrogen loads via nitrogen fixation. Those estimates are crucial for ecosystem adaptive management since internal nitrogen loading may counteract the positive effects of decreased external nutrient loading.     

Organohalogen pollutants in herring from the northern Baltic Sea: concentrations, congener profiles and explanatory factors

Organohalogen contaminants were investigated in Baltic herring caught from three catchment areas in the Baltic Sea, off the coasts of Finland. Pools of both small and large herring were analysed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, naphthalenes, camphenes (toxaphene), polybrominated diphenyl ethers and the pesticide DDT and its metabolites. PCB concentrations per fresh weight in small herring were at the same level in all catchment areas, i.e. the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland, revealing no hot spots and reflecting most likely long term emissions and atmospheric deposition. Differences in the levels and/or congener profiles of other contaminants between catchment areas may be explained by point sources. Similar concentrations in small and large herring in the Gulf of Finland were possibly due to their common nutrition. In the other areas, differences between small and large herring most likely reflected their different food sources.