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1.
汞、硒暴露对紫贻贝(Mytilus edulis)抗氧化酶系统的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了研究重金属汞及微量元素硒对海洋贝类的毒性效应,揭示汞、硒在生物体内的相互作用机制,用汞和硒对指示生物紫贻贝(Mytilus edulis)进行单一及联合亚慢性暴露实验。设置对照组(0μg·L-1)、汞暴露组(25μg·L-1Hg2+)、硒暴露组(4μg·L-1Se4+)以及硒汞联合暴露组(25μg·L-1Hg2++4μg·L-1Se4+)4个实验组,并分别在暴露期间的第0、2、4和6天定时采集样本,测定紫贻贝鳃SOD、GPx及CAT3种抗氧化酶活性。将实验数据进行ANOVA分析处理后,结果表明:与对照组相比,汞暴露组SOD和GPx均呈现先显著升高(p<0.05或p<0.01)后降低(p<0.01或p<0.001)的趋势,CAT则从第4天开始显著降低(p<0.05);硒暴露组中SOD活性始终高于对照组(p<0.001),GPx活性在第2天也显著升高(p<0.001),CAT活性始终与对照组相近;硒汞联合作用与汞暴露组相比,SOD、GPx和CAT活性在不同时间点均有显著升高(p<0.05),而与硒暴露组相比,3种酶活性均低于硒单独暴露的水平。说明汞在短期能够诱导抗氧化酶活性,随着暴露时间的延长,则表现出明显的抑制作用;微量硒能够增强抗氧化酶系统活性,对汞导致的氧化损伤具有拮抗作用。  相似文献   

2.
为了评价环境中五氯酚(PCP)和八氯代二苯并二噁英(OCDD)对水环境以及鱼类的影响,以斑马鱼为模式生物,研究了PCP和OCDD对其胚胎发育的单一及复合毒性效应.结果表明,PCP单独暴露(浓度25μg·L-1~5mg·L-1)对斑马鱼胚胎发育具有较强的毒性效应,可导致胚胎孵化率显著下降,死亡率、畸形率显著上升,而OCDD单独暴露(200、500μg·L-1)对斑马鱼胚胎发育没有明显的毒性效应;OCDD与环境浓度的PCP复合暴露(OCDD+PCP1:250μg·L-1+25μg·L-1;OCDD+PCP2:250μg·L-1+50μg·L-1)对斑马鱼胚胎的存活与发育等没有显著影响,对斑马鱼胚胎内CYP1A基因表达以及超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)的酶活力也没有显著影响,在实验浓度下二者共存没有明显的复合毒性效应。  相似文献   

3.
为了解全氟辛烷磺酸盐(PFOS)对海洋贝类抗氧化防御系统的毒性效应及致毒机理,在实验室条件下研究了PFOS对翡翠贻贝的96h急性毒性,同时探讨PFOS胁迫和净水恢复过程中翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团组织中抗氧化指标(SOD活性、GSH和MDA含量)的变化。结果显示,PFOS对翡翠贻贝的96h半致死浓度(LC50)为68.3mg·L-1,安全浓度为6.83mg·L-1。在PFOS胁迫阶段,1mg·L-1浓度组外套膜SOD活性显著性升高(p<0.05),内脏团SOD酶活性显著降低(p<0.05);而PFOS浓度高于1mg·L-1时,外套膜SOD活性显著性降低(p<0.05),内脏团SOD活性显著升高(p<0.05)。PFOS胁迫对翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团中GSH含量均有显著的诱导作用(p<0.05),PFOS胁迫15d后各浓度组GSH含量均受到显著的抑制(p<0.05)。翡翠贻贝外套膜MDA含量受PFOS胁迫后显著升高(p<0.05),内脏团MDA含量的变化呈先降低、后升高的规律。净水释放阶段,翡翠贻贝两组织中SOD活性在释放7d后均恢复至对照组水平,GSH含量和MDA含量呈显著升高的趋势(p<0.05)。研究结果表明,PFOS暴露能够引起翡翠贻贝外套膜和内脏团氧化胁迫,但这种损伤的效果不明显,释放短时间后即可自我恢复。  相似文献   

4.
为探讨溴氰菊酯对中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)的毒性影响,采用换水式渔药毒性试验的方法进行了溴氰菊酯对河蟹急性毒性实验和慢性毒性作用下组织病理的研究。结果表明:溴氰菊酯对河蟹24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h半致死浓度(LC50)分别为2.127 μg·L-1、1.380 μg·L-1、1.153 μg·L-1和0.905 μg·L-1,安全浓度(SC)为0.0905 μg·L-1,溴氰菊酯对河蟹的毒性为剧毒;河蟹在溴氰菊酯浓度为0.005~0.32 μg·L-1的慢性毒性作用下,分别于第7、14和21天进行鳃、肝胰腺、心脏、肠、肌肉组织和神经团的组织病理观察,鳃出现鳃小叶水肿、渗出物增加、萎缩到鳃腔闭合出现细胞坏死,肝胰腺的部分肝胰腺管中肝胰腺细胞空泡变性、坏死和肝胰腺管基膜崩解,心脏出现水肿,部分心肌纤维横纹模糊和消失到局部心肌纤维坏死,肠黏膜层柱状上皮细胞从空泡变性、部分坏死到较多上皮细胞坏死崩解脱落入肠腔,肌肉组织和神经团无组织病理变化现象。最早出现不可逆的坏死组织病理变化是在第14天的0.005 μg·L-1浓度组,肝胰腺细胞坏死,此时即使去除溴氰菊酯的毒性作用,坏死已不能恢复。通过与河蟹水瘪子病组织病理的比较分析,溴氰菊酯毒性作用下的河蟹具有独特的组织病理变化特点。  相似文献   

5.
针对渔用废电池被大量丢弃在海洋中的现象,分别开展了废电池中主要重金属离子溶出特性试验和废电池浸出液对不同海洋生物急性毒性效应的研究.试验结果显示,在盐度为20的40L海水中自然浸泡状态下(45节电池),松下一号锌锰废电池溶出液中铅、镉、汞溶出浓度不断增加,但溶出速率较慢.单节电池在第60d,铅、镉和汞溶出总量分别为2.08μg、0.52μg和0.60μg,溶出率分别为0.004%、0.018%和1.263%;第210d铅、镉和汞溶出总量分别为28.76μg、6.38μg和1.02μg,溶出率分别为0.057%、0.224%和2.147%.一节废电池中铅、镉和汞总量在1L海水中全部溶出后浓度分别可达到50445μg·L-1、2850μg·L-1和47.5μg·L-1,分别是我国渔业水质标准(GB11607-89)的1009倍、570倍和95倍.废电池浸出液对不同受试生物的急性毒性试验结果表明,当废电池浸出液混合浓度中铅、镉和汞浓度分别为3.39μg·L-1、0.64μg·L-1和0.76μg·L-1时(45节电池40L海水浸泡60d),对黑鲷、脊尾白虾和缢蛏的96h半致死浓度值分别为溶出液混合浓度的5.13%、4.87%和6.71%,废电池浸出液中各重金属离子对海洋生物毒性具有非常强的协同作用.在鱼、虾、贝三类受试生物中,贝类对废电池溶出液毒性的耐受能力最强,鱼类次之,虾类最弱.  相似文献   

6.
为深入探讨水体不同浓度重金属联合对水生生物的慢性毒性机制,本研究以日本沼虾(Macrobranchium nipponense)为受试生物,镉(Cd)和铅(Pb)为目标金属,超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、金属硫蛋白(MT)和丙二醛(MDA)为测试终点,研究不同浓度的Cd和Pb单一及联合暴露对日本沼虾的氧化损伤及交互作用。实验结果表明:Cd对虾的致死浓度为1 mg·L-1,当其与同浓度Pb联合时,致死毒性增强;在0.01 mg·L-1和0.1 mg·L-1下联合时均表现为拮抗作用。不同处理组对标志物产生不同程度的诱导或抑制效应,其中,SOD活性均受到胁迫抑制,0.1 mg·L-1Cd暴露10 d后对肝胰腺SOD抑制率达53.38%,0.1 mg·L-1Pb暴露10 d后对肌肉SOD抑制率达70.02%;CAT活性整体受胁迫激活,肝胰腺与肌肉CAT活性在时间尺度上呈现相反的变化规律;肝胰腺中MT和MDA对重金属的敏感性要高于肌肉;综合生物标志物响应(IBR)评价表明,机体在时间尺度上可通过酶活性调节而具有一定的解毒功能,但并不能消除重金属引起的氧化损伤,且重金属单一毒性要高于联合毒性,其中Cd对肝胰腺毒性最大,Pb对肌肉毒性最大。研究结果能够为水体重金属生态风险预警、水质基准制定及流域水环境管理提供依据。  相似文献   

7.
为了探讨重金属Pb、Cd对矮小拟丽突线虫(Acrobeloides nanus)的亚急性毒性作用,采用室内培养的方法,研究了不同浓度Pb和Cd对矮小拟丽突线虫生长发育、繁殖的影响,并对线虫世代间的毒性效应进行了比较.结果表明,1)与对照组相比,各暴露组当代(P0)和后代(F1)线虫平均体长均显著降低(p<0.05,p<0.01);随着重金属浓度的增加,当代(P0)和后代(F1)线虫平均体长呈现逐渐降低的趋势.2)随着Pb、Cd暴露浓度的增加,线虫产卵数逐渐降低;Pb对线虫产卵数的72h-EC20、EC10分别为17.41、4.36mg·L-1,Cd对线虫产卵数的72h-EC50、EC20和EC10分别为4.47、0.91和0.53mg·L-1.以上结果表明,重金属Pb、Cd暴露可显著抑制矮小拟丽突线虫的生长发育、繁殖;线虫体长、产卵数具有明显的重金属浓度依赖性。  相似文献   

8.
纳米SiO2与常规SiO2颗粒对Hela细胞的细胞毒性作用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了探讨纳米SiO2和常规SiO2颗粒对Hela细胞的细胞毒性作用,采用不同浓度的纳米SiO2和常规SiO2颗粒(0.05、0.1、0.2、0.4、0.8、1.6μg·μL-1)对Hela细胞进行12h染毒,应用MTT法检测细胞毒性效应.研究发现,较低浓度(≤0.2μg·μL-1)的纳米SiO2和常规SiO2对Hela细胞无明显细胞毒性(p>0.05);较高浓度时,纳米SiO2(≥0.4μg·μL-1)和常规SiO2(≥0.8μg·μL-1)对Hela细胞具有明显细胞毒性作用(p<0.01),并且随浓度增大细胞毒性增强;当浓度≥0.4μg·μL-1时,纳米SiO2的细胞毒性明显高于相同浓度的常规SiO2(p<0.05).以上结果表明,纳米SiO2和常规SiO2颗粒均能对Hela细胞产生细胞毒性,且纳米SiO2的细胞毒性强于常规SiO2;低浓度(≤0.2μg·μL-1)的纳米SiO2和常规SiO2具有很好的生物相容性.  相似文献   

9.
为深入探讨水体不同浓度重金属联合暴露对水生生物的慢性毒性机理,本研究以日本沼虾(Macrobranchium nipponense)为受试生物,镉(Cd)和铅(Pb)为目标金属,超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、金属硫蛋白(MT)和丙二醛(MDA)为测试终点,研究不同浓度的Cd和Pb单一及联合暴露对日本沼虾的氧化损伤及交互作用。实验结果表明:Cd对虾的致死浓度为1 mg?L-1,当其与同浓度Pb联合时,致死毒性增强;在0.01 mg?L-1和0.1 mg?L-1下联合时均表现为拮抗作用。不同处理组对标志物产生不同程度的诱导或抑制效应,其中,SOD活性均受到胁迫抑制,0.1 mg?L-1Cd暴露10 d后对肝胰腺SOD抑制率达53.38%,0.1 mg?L-1Pb暴露10 d后对肌肉SOD抑制率达70.02%;CAT活性整体受胁迫激活,肝胰腺与肌肉CAT活性在时间尺度上呈现相反的变化规律;肝胰腺中MT和MDA对重金属的敏感性要高于肌肉;综合生物标志物响应(IBR)评价表明,机体在时间尺度上可通过酶活性调节而具有一定的解毒功能,但并不能消除重金属引起的氧化损伤,且重金属单一毒性要高于联合毒性,其中Cd对肝胰腺毒性最大,Pb对肌肉毒性最大。研究结果能够为水体重金属生态风险预警、水质基准制定及流域水环境管理提供依据。? 关键词:日本沼虾;重金属;氧化损伤;交互作用;分子标志物  相似文献   

10.
为初步探讨内分泌干扰物多环芳烃对海洋桡足类生物所产生的生物效应,研究了萘对火腿许水蚤(Schmackeria poplesia)的急性毒性作用及其在1.6μg·L-1、16μg·L-1、160μg·L-1浓度下对火腿许水蚤变态率、存活率、繁殖力、性别比和体长的影响.结果显示,萘对火腿许水蚤48hLC50和96hLC50分别为4589.34μg·L-1和1559.55μg·L-1;各浓度萘均引起火腿许水蚤幼体的变态率显著降低;160μg·L-1萘条件下,火腿许水蚤的存活率、产卵率和抱卵雌体比率均显著降低;各浓度的萘对火腿许水蚤的性别比和体长均未造成显著影响.研究表明,在目前的环境浓度下,多环芳烃(萘)对海洋桡足类生物可能造成的生态风险较低.  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.  相似文献   

13.
Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.  相似文献   

14.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

15.
An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.  相似文献   

16.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

17.
Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.  相似文献   

18.
19.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

20.
How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.  相似文献   

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