From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.     

Land use change in California,USA: Nonpoint source water quality impacts

California’s population increased 25% between 1980 and 1990, resulting in rapid and extensive urbanization. Of a total 123,000 ha urbanized in 42 of the state’s 58 counties between 1984 and 1990, an estimated 13% occurred on irrigated prime farmland, and 48% on wildlands or fallow marginal farmlands. Sixty-six percent of all new irrigated farmland put into production between 1984 and 1990 was of lesser quality than the prime farmland taken out of production by urbanization. Factors dictating the agricultural development of marginal farmlands include the availability and price of water and land, agricultural commodity prices, and technical innovations such as drip irrigation systems that impact the feasibility and costs of production. The increasing amount of marginal farmland being put into production could have significant water quality consequences because marginal lands are generally steeper, have more erodible soils, poorer drainage, and require more fertilizer than prime farmlands. Although no data exist to test our hypothesis, and numerous variables preclude definitive predictions, the evidence suggests that new irrigated marginal lands can increase nonpoint source (NPS) pollution for a given size area by an order of magnitude in some cases.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in a karst area of China

Satellite images have been used extensively to study temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in China. However, few studies have been conducted in the karst areas despite the large area and population involved and the fragile ecosystem. In this study, LULC changes were examined in part of Guizhou Province of southern China from 1991 to 2001 based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of November 7, 1991, December 5, 1994, and December 19, 2001. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were computed based on LULC types. The results show that agricultural land decreased, while urban areas expanded dramatically, and forest land increased slightly. Barren land increased from 1991 to 1994, and then decreased from 1994 to 2001. These changes in LULC widened the temperature difference between the urban and the rural areas. The change in LST was mainly associated with changes in construction materials in the urban area and in vegetation abundance both in the urban and rural areas. Vegetation had a dual function in the temperatures of different LULC types. While it could ease the warming trend in the urban or built-up areas, it helped to keep other lands warmer in the cold weather. The study also reveals that due to the government's efforts on reforestation, rural ecosystems in some of the study area were being restored. The time required for the karst ecosystem to recover was shorter than previously thought.     

The overlooked role of New York City urban yards in mitigating and adapting to climate change

There is a dearth of research focusing on the role that urban residential open space plays in climate change adaptation, despite evidence suggesting that environmental benefits accrue when even small pockets of open space are made permeable and vegetated. In densely built New York City, there are 21,448?ha (53,000 acres) of such land. One city block with adjoining contiguous open space was investigated to quantify its existing environmental value and also its potential to provide enhanced services through redesign. The study block's open space was found to be 35% permeable and planted with 96 trees, storing 45,359?kg (100,000?lb) of carbon. Simulations conducted using the United States Environmental Protection Agency Stormwater Management Model contrasting normal, light, and heavy precipitation years suggested that increases in annual precipitation could be fully mitigated by reducing impervious surface cover by 25%. The preservation of the existing vegetated residential urban open space and the conversion of paved surfaces to a pervious condition both appear to be effective strategies for enhancing the city's ability to adapt to and mitigate for climate change.     

Impact of land use and land cover changes on the ambient temperature in a middle scale city, Takamatsu, in Southwest Japan

There is a lack of information on urban heat island impact on the thermal environment due to low populated urban sprawl, although densely populated urban sprawl impact has been identified by several researchers. The Takamatsu area has recently developed in a low populated urban sprawl style without any increase in population. This paper examined the impact of a low populated urban sprawl on the thermal environment through an analysis of the last 30 years data set and investigated the contribution of vegetation fraction and population density to the temperature trend. As a consequence, it was shown that one of the most significant causative factors of temperature increase is an expansion of non-vegetated area even without population growth. This result implied that vegetated zones should be maintained in urban areas in order to realize sustainable urbanization.     

Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells1

Johnson, R.L., B.R. Clark, M.K. Landon, L.J. Kauffman, and S.M. Eberts, 2011. Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):588‐596. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00526.x Abstract: Wells screened across multiple aquifers can provide pathways for the movement of surprisingly large volumes of groundwater to confined aquifers used for public water supply (PWS). Using a simple numerical model, we examine the impact of several pumping scenarios on leakage from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer and conclude that a single inactive multi‐aquifer well can contribute nearly 10% of total PWS well flow over a wide range of pumping rates. This leakage can occur even when the multi‐aquifer well is more than a kilometer from the PWS well. The contribution from multi‐aquifer wells may be greater under conditions where seasonal pumping (e.g., irrigation) creates large, widespread downward hydraulic gradients between aquifers. Under those conditions, water can continue to leak down a multi‐aquifer well from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer even when those multi‐aquifer wells are actively pumped. An important implication is that, if an unconfined aquifer is contaminated, multi‐aquifer wells can increase the vulnerability of a confined‐aquifer PWS well.     

Understanding land cover change in a Special Protection Area in Central Spain through the enhanced land cover transition matrix and a related new approach

This work analyses land cover changes occurring between 1990 and 2000 within a Natural Protected Area, southwest of Madrid (Spain). We develop a new methodology that considers the net change in different land cover categories in each municipality of the study area. Our methodology, which uses Factorial Correspondence Analysis, allows identification of the most important changes at the municipality level and groups the municipalities where land use dynamics are similar. This method is a powerful tool for synthesis and can potentially be applied to non-spatial geographical data sources (e.g. agrarian census statistics). Our results show that the land cover around SW Madrid is highly dynamic. The shrub vegetation, arable land, heterogeneous agricultural and human-created area categories show the highest total change. The dynamics of the changes detected are dominated by decreases in the area of different types of crops and increases in forest areas. These changes may have indirect effects on the conservation of natural resources and wildlife if not managed appropriately.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

Forecast optimal fluoride concentration data in drinking water according to the ambient temperature in Golestan,Iran

Controlling fluoride concentrations in drinking water at optimal levels could be effective in preventing certain negative health effects in humans. This study investigated optimal fluoride concentrations in potable water in Golestan province, according the ambient temperatures in the province. The study used data on fluoride concentrations in drinking water supplied by the Water and Wastewater Company of Golestan Province. The annual mean maximum temperatures were extracted from a website that recorded daily ambient temperature. The optimal value of fluoride in drinking water for each county of Golestan province was calculated by the Galgan and Vermillion formula. The results show that all of the counties should contain fluoride concentrations ranging from 0.73 to 0.766 milligrams per liter (mg/L) according to the calculation formula, while fluoride concentrations were instead reported to range between 0.23 and 0.53 mg/L by the Water and Wastewater company. In addition, according to World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations, the concentrations of fluoride in potable in all of the cities in Golestan province fall below the WHO standard. In conclusion, we suggest that the fluoride concentrations in Golestan province's drinking water should be taken into account by the appropriate authorities and that optimal fluoride concentrations in drinking water according to ambient temperatures be set to avoiding negative health impacts.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Spatial and temporal variation in nutrient parameters in stream water in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan: effects of land cover and human impact

Seasonal and spatial variations in major ion chemistry and isotope composition in the rural-urban catchment of the Shigenobu River were monitored to determine the influences of agricultural and urban sewage systems on water quality. Temporal patterns of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) were examined at four sites in the rural-urban catchment. Urban land cover, incorporating the effects of increased population, domestic water use, and industrial wastewater, was positively associated with increases in water pollution and was included as an important explanatory variable for the variations in all water quality parameters. Significant trends were found in each parameter. BOD concentrations ranged widely, and were high in urban regions, due to the presence of a waste water treatment plant. TN and SS showed various trends, but did not vary widely, unlike TP. TP concentrations varied greatly, with high concentrations in cultivated areas, due to fertilizer use. Local water quality management or geology could further explain some of the variations in water quality. Non-point-source pollution exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating that incorporating spatial dimensions into water quality assessment enhances our understanding of spatial patterns of water quality. Data from the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) and Environment Ministry (EM) were used to investigate trends in land management. Stepwise regression analysis was used to test the correlation between specific management practises and substance concentrations in surface water and sediment. MLIT and EM data for 1981-2003 showed an increase in TN, TP, and SS concentrations in surface water. High levels of fertilizer in dormant sprays and domestic water use were associated with high pesticide concentrations in water and sediment. This paper presents a novel method of studying the environmental impact of various agricultural management practises and recommends a management strategy that combines the use of reduced-risk pesticides with irrigation and non-irrigation periods in paddy fields.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland,Washington, USA1

Abstract: We used a retrospective approach to identify hydrologic metrics with the greatest potential for ecological relevance for use as resource management tools (i.e., hydrologic indicators) in rapidly urbanizing basins of the Puget Lowland. We proposed four criteria for identifying useful hydrologic indicators: (1) sensitive to urbanization consistent with expected hydrologic response, (2) demonstrate statistically significant trends in urbanizing basins (and not in undeveloped basins), (3) be correlated with measures of biological response to urbanization, and (4) be relatively insensitive to potentially confounding variables like basin area. Data utilized in the analysis included gauged flow and benthic macroinvertebrate data collected at 16 locations in 11 King County stream basins. Fifteen hydrologic metrics were calculated from daily average flow data and the Pacific Northwest Benthic Index of Biological Integrity (B‐IBI) was used to represent the gradient of response of stream macroinvertebrates to urbanization. Urbanization was represented by percent Total Impervious Area (%TIA) and percent urban land cover (%Urban). We found eight hydrologic metrics that were significantly correlated with B‐IBI scores (Low Pulse Count and Duration; High Pulse Count, Duration, and Range; Flow Reversals, T_Qmean, and R‐B Index). Although there appeared to be a great deal of redundancy among these metrics with respect to their response to urbanization, only two of the metrics tested – High Pulse Count and High Pulse Range – best met all four criteria we established for selecting hydrologic indicators. The increase in these high pulse metrics with respect to urbanization is the result of an increase in winter high pulses and the occurrence of high pulse events during summer (increasing the frequency and range of high pulses), when practically none would have occurred prior to development. We performed an initial evaluation of the usefulness of our hydrologic indicators by calculating and comparing hydrologic metrics derived from continuous hydrologic simulations of selected basin management alternatives for Miller Creek, one of the most highly urbanized basins used in our study. We found that the preferred basin management alternative appeared to be effective in restoring some flow metrics close to simulated fully forested conditions (e.g., T_Qmean), but less effective in restoring other metrics such as High Pulse Count and Range. If future research continues to support our hypothesis that the flow regime, particularly High Pulse Count and Range, is an important control of biotic integrity in Puget Lowland streams, it would have significant implications for stormwater management.     

The future of water in Australia: The potential effects of climate change and ozone depletion on Australian water quality,quantity and treatability

Water is a resource that is essential for all life on Earth. An exponentially growing human population, in addition to unprecedented industrial and technological development, threaten the availability and quality of this resource. Climate change and ozone depletion are two major environmental problems facing mankind today. These problems have the potential to further strain currently available freshwater resources. Recent research has shown that climate change and ozone depletion are linked phenomena and their interaction exacerbates their impact. Changes in precipitation, surface runoff, solar UV radiation, temperatures, and evaporation are some of the predicted outcomes of climate change and ozone depletion. They influence the biogeochemical cycles and aquatic ecosystems in lakes and rivers, and alter the character of natural organic matter (NOM) and, consequently, they have the potential to affect the quality, quantity and treatability of our water resources. Given these uncertainties, and the need to mitigate the consequences of climate change and ozone depletion, the issues of changing water quality, quantity and treatability cannot be ignored by Australian governments and water utilities.     

Understanding large-scale deforestation in southern Jinotega, Nicaragua from 1978 to 1999 through the examination of changes in land use and land cover

Nicaragua, home to the largest remaining extent of rainforest in Central America (total surface area) and to a significant indigenous population, has lost approximately half of its forest cover since 1950. This major and rapid loss of forest cover has been explained as the consequence of an eastward moving agricultural frontier that cuts through the region of Jinotega. If the current deforestation rate continues, the country could lose its remaining forest cover over the course of the next two decades; therefore, it is essential that the dynamics and relationships of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in this region are understood. To examine LUCC in Nicaragua over time, Landsat imagery from the southern portion of the region of Jinotega, taken in 1978, 1987, and 1999 was utilized. A remote-sensing method, supervised classification, which allows for the grouping of spectrally similar values for each year, followed by an image change detection analysis (postclassification comparison) was conducted. Groundtruthing (field validation) was conducted in 2006 to validate the data, which yielded increasing overall accuracy rates of 71.68% for 1978, 82.35% for 1987, and 84.38% for 1999. The classification and change detection results showed that if the agricultural cultivation overtook this region, it happened before 1978. Therefore, the possibility that either deforestation did not actually occur along an agricultural frontier or that it was located further east exists; this would be an interesting subject for future studies. There was, however, clear evidence of increased forest cover from 1987 to 1999 near the urban center, correlating with the enforced reforestation law in the city of Jinotega.     

Modeling Changes to Streamflow,Sediment, and Nutrient Loading from Land Use Changes Due to Potential Natural Gas Development

Natural gas development using hydraulic fracturing has many potential environmental impacts, but among the most certain is the land disturbance required to build the well pads and other infrastructure required to drill and extract the gas. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to investigate how natural gas development could impact streamflow and sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loadings in the upper Delaware River Basin (DRB), a relatively undeveloped watershed of 7,950 km² that lies above the Marcellus Shale formation. If gas development was permitted, our projections show the DRB could experience development of over 600 well pads to extract natural gas at build out, which, with supporting infrastructure (roads, gathering pipelines), could convert over 5,000 ha from existing land uses in the study area. In subbasins with development activity we found sediment, TN, and TP yields could increase by an average of 15, 0.08, and 0.03 kg/ha/yr, respectively (an increase of 2, 3, and 15%, respectively) for each one percent of subbasin land area converted into natural gas infrastructure. At the study area outlet on the Delaware River at Port Jervis, New York, we found increases in the annual average streamflow and sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads of up to 0.01, 0.2, 0.2, and 1%, respectively, for a rapid development year, and 0.08, 1.3, 2.0, and 11%, respectively, for the full development scenario. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Embeddedness of climate change adaptation: established procedures and contending discourses for flood protection in Espoo,Finland

Calls for more stakeholder participation and cooperation, the acknowledgement of uncertainties as well as for flexible and robust solutions have become frequent in the literature on climate change adaptation. Recent studies show that these calls are taken up only reluctantly in local adaptation compared to sectoral and technical solutions. The aim of this study is to examine to which extent adaptation as an embedded process within the local context allows for stakeholder participation, cooperation and the robustness and flexibility of adaptation measures. It applies an analytical approach, combining an action framework of adaptation and document-based discourse analysis, to assess both the procedural and the substantive viewpoint of an adaptation case in Finland. This twofold approach provides insight into how the adaptation process and content influence and condition each other. The analysis highlights how new approaches to adaptation have to compete with prevailing discourses and institutionalised practices, as public authorities take the dominant role in adaptation, striving for certain and safe solutions. This process has few participatory elements and leaves little leeway to address uncertainty.     

Modelling the response of surface water quality to the urbanization in Xi'an, China

The study investigated the response of surface water quality to urbanization in Xi'an, China. We qualitatively described the change in urban land use from 1996 to 2003, analyzed the status of the surface water environment, and constructed a model of urban expansion to simulate the water environment's response to urbanization. Our results revealed that patterns of land use changed dramatically, the rate of economic growth exceeded that of urbanization during the study period, and increasing urban land use was correlated with fluctuations in water quality. The simulated results suggested that urbanization had reached the environmental carrying capacity based on the average land utility and the marginal costs of pollution.     

Land rights in Darfur: Institutional flexibility,policy and adaptation to environmental change

With environmental change set to affect the developing world in significant ways, examination of the process of adaptation is increasingly being brought to the fore. Common to all forms of adaptation in rural livelihoods will be a process of change in resource use and the resource rights that will either facilitate or subvert adaptation. This paper looks at Darfur and the repercussions from the multi‐year drought and land degradation that led to forms of adaptation that involved change in relationships between groups over land resources. The analysis looks at how changes in land resource rights relationships have been dealt with historically, as adaptation developed. Approaches involving highly flexible customary institutions were used to effectively manage the change in land resource rights relationships inherent in adaptation, and considerable opportunity existed for positive interaction between customary and statutory law. Initial success at adaptation was followed by interventions by the Sudanese government to manage these relationships for specific objectives that worked against adaptation. This resulted in competition, animosity, confrontation and the subsequent collapse of the institutions, legitimacy, and trust necessary for successful management of land resource rights change. These national policies debilitated the adaptation opportunities and instead led to profoundly negative repercussions in relationships about land in Darfur, eventually becoming a primary driver in the current war. This highlights both the importance of land resource rights relationships to adaptation and how these relationships can be changed (positively and negatively) by specific practices and policies.