Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

Land systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.     

Effect of land use and land cover change on soil erosion and the spatio-temporal variation in Liupan Mountain Region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains are located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, that forms an important divide between landforms and biogeographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountain Region has suffered tremendous ecological damage over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. To present the relationship between land use/cover change and spatio-temporal variation of soil erosion, data sets of land use between the late 1980s and 2000 were obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and spatial models were used to characterize landscape and soil erosion conditions. Also, soil erosion in response to land use and land cover change were quantified and analyzed using data from geographical information systems and remote sensing. Soil erosion by water was the dominant mode of soil loss, while soil erosion by wind was only present on a relatively small area. The degree of soil erosion was classified into five severity classes: slight, light, moderate, severe, and very severe. Soil erosion in the Liupan Mountain Region increased between the late 1980s and 2000, both in terms of acreage and severity. Moderate, severe, and very severe eroded areas accounted for 54.86% of the total land area. The lightly eroded area decreased, while the moderately eroded area increased by 368817 ha (22%) followed by severe erosion with 146552 ha (8.8%), and very severe erosion by 97067.6 ha (5.8%). Soil loss on sloping cropland increased with slope gradients. About 90% of the cropland was located on slopes less than 15°. Most of the increase in soil erosion on cropland was due to conversion of steep slopes to cropland and degradation of grassland and increased activities. Soil erosion was severe on grassland with a moderate or low grass cover and on dry land. Human activities, cultivation on steep slopes, and overgrazing of pastures were the main reasons for the increase in erosion severity.     

Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate‐Induced Risk to Conservation

Much of the biodiversity‐related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop‐climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near‐term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. Uso de Cambios en la Utilidad Agrícola para Cuantificar Riesgos Futuros para la Conservación Inducidos por el Clima     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.     

Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil’s savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008–2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87–91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.     

1980—2015年青藏高原植被变化研究

青藏高原地形复杂,气候类型独特,是北半球气候变化的调节器。全球气候变化直接影响植被变化,探讨植被变化对了解青藏高原的环境状况及环境保护与恢复具有重要意义。选取青藏高原作为研究区域,基于1980年和2015年的1 km土地利用数据利用转移矩阵研究植被的转换变化,利用1981—2015年的GIMMS-NDVI数据借助趋势分析法分析土地利用未变化区域的植被覆被变化,并通过相关分析法研究植被变化与气候因子的关系。研究表明:1980—2015年,青藏高原植被的转换变化表现为转入面积大于转出面积,植被面积整体增加。植被类型变化的主要表现形式为农作物和草地面积增加,乔木林地和灌木林面积减少;草地的面积变化最大,农作物、乔木林地和灌木林面积变化很小。从不同植被类型和生态分区来看,植被覆被变化表现为农作物面积较小,分布于半干旱地区,NDVI呈上升趋势;乔木林地位于东南部湿润半湿润地区,生长状况呈现退化趋势;灌木林位于东部边缘和东南部的湿润半湿润和半干旱地区,呈退化趋势;草地分布范围最大,生长情况趋于改善。近35年来,青藏高原的植被覆盖整体趋于好转,低覆盖度、干旱半干旱地区趋于改善,高覆盖度、湿润半湿润地区出现退化。研究时段内,青藏高原趋于暖湿化,NDVI变化与年平均气温、年降水量变化呈正相关,对降水变化更为敏感。不同植被类型对气候变化响应不同,农作物相关系数最高。乔木林地与气温和降水变化呈负相关,农作物和草地则呈正相关,灌木林与降水变化呈正相关,与气温变化呈负相关。     

Land-use dynamics and landscape pattern change in a coastal gulf region,southeast China

This study quantitatively analyzed spatiotemporal changes in land use and landscape pattern in a coastal gulf region of southeast China by comparing classified satellite images from 1988, 2002, and 2007, using a geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and landscape pattern metrics. The results show an increase in cropland, built-up area, and aquaculture area and a decrease in orchards, woodland, and beach area during 1988–2007. Over the study period, 64.3% of newly-expanded cropland was from woodland; newly-expanded built-up area of 34.8, 27.2, and 20.4% was converted from cropland, woodland, and beach areas, respectively; and newly-expanded aquaculture increased by 45.1 and 29.4% from beach and water body areas, respectively. Trend analysis of landscape pattern metrics demonstrates fragmentation of the landscape, with landscape pattern structure becoming more complex over the last two decades in the Louyuan Gulf region. Urbanization and policy developed to transfer beach/seawater areas into built-up area/aquaculture are the two main driving forces contributing to dynamic changes in land use and landscape pattern in the last two decades in Louyuan.     

Tracking land cover change along the western edge of the U.S. Corn Belt from 1984 through 2016 using satellite sensor data: observed trends and contributing factors

The Cropland Data Layers (CDL) are high-resolution geo-referenced data products made available by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. However, the CDL lacks in its ability to be employed as a tool to identify the impact of the gradually evolving drivers of land use change, e.g., climate change, due to its limited historical depth. We implement a robust, phenology-based satellite image classification algorithm to identify historical cropland allocation in eastern South Dakota and North Dakota predating the initial CDL by 13 and 22 years, respectively. Five major land covers, i.e., corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa and grass (including native grass, hay and pasture) are identified using archived Landsat-5 surface reflectance data, while achieving CDL-like accuracy. The long-term rate of grassland loss during 1985–2011 is found to be significantly lower (26,781 hectares or 1.5% annually) relative to the near-term rate of grassland loss during 2006-’11 (84,545 hectares or 5.2% annually). We find similar discrepancy in regional corn expansion rates. Our value-added raster data provide opportunities for improved identification of land use drivers, whereas relying solely on the CDL’s restricted historical extent may lead to biased land use change estimates and misguide policy.     

Quantifying cultural values associated with deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

This study analyzes the distribution of cultural values associated with forest and non-forest landscapes among stakeholder groups shaping land use and land cover change (LULCC) in an agricultural/forest frontier in the western Brazilian Amazon. The study addresses theoretical and methodological obstacles to the integration of cultural data and social science research into the study of LULCC, providing a simple, systematic, and more accurate way of understanding this missing feature of land change. The findings offer insights on elusive cultural features that influence how diverse actors make land use decisions and respond to drivers, and can thus contribute to enhancing the predictive capacity of land change research.     

Evolving patterns of agricultural frontier expansion in Mexico’s Chihuahuan Desert: a political ecology approach

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand why and how the area of irrigated agriculture in Janos County, in northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, has tripled since 1987. Expansion of agricultural frontiers has often been attributed to state policies and programs or von Thünian land-rent dynamics. Here, a political ecology approach relying on qualitative interviews with landowners was used to understand the drivers and patterns of conversion from native rangeland to crops. Results show that socioeconomic patterns of agricultural frontier expansion evolved over time, with different drivers at different phases. State policies, especially the land reform, were initially important for settling the agriculture frontier in small farms. Subsequently, economic differentiation, intensification, and growth of existing farms drove expansion. Since 2010, expansion has been driven by investment-oriented land purchases by absentee owners and larger-than-family farms. The Janos case details what may be common but underappreciated temporal dynamics at agricultural frontiers.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

Land‐use trade‐offs between tree biodiversity and crop production in the Atlantic Forest

Trade‐offs in ecosystem services (ES) have received increasing attention because provisioning services often come at the expense of biodiversity loss. When land‐use patterns are not maximally efficient relative to productivity, provisioning services, such as crop production, can often be increased without losing biodiversity. The Atlantic Forest (AF) encompasses dense, mixed, and seasonal forests and has high levels of endemism and anthropogenic threat. We examined trade‐offs between biodiversity and crop production in the AF to provide insights into land‐use management decisions. We developed a biodiversity metric that combines information on tree species richness, evolutionary distinctiveness, and rarity at the local level. We examined the extent to which the nature of ES trade‐offs differ among the 3 forest types. We assessed how annual deforestation rates and land management practices affect biodiversity and agricultural revenues. Finally, we tested whether it is possible to achieve the same total regional revenue without reducing biodiversity by improving local management practices. The 3 forest types had similar patterns in ES trade‐offs, although within mixed forest patterns differed. Biodiversity appeared to be more sensitive to land‐use change than crop revenues. Certain crops yielded up to 10 times higher values in some sites. Enhanced crop productivity may increase revenues without reducing biodiversity. Our results showed that to enhance human well‐being without further conversion of AF, maximizing crop productivity is needed . Increasing efficiency of management outcomes by maintaining higher biodiversity and increasing provisioning services depends on knowledge of forest type, the comparative advantage of planting crops in the best places, and preserving species in a balanced manner across forests.     

广东耕地地力调查与质量评价试点工作的成果及其应用展望

根据农业部的布置，广东省选择佛山市高明区开展耕地地力调查与质量评价试点工作。查清了高明区耕地等级及其分布、土壤肥力状况、土壤及水源受污染的背景，建立了高明区耕地质量管理信息系统，为高明区土壤合理利用和改良、作物布局调整、肥料合理生产和正确施用、土地有偿使用、无公害优质农产品生产等提供了指导，也为今后全省各地开展该项工作提供了参考。     

Carbon sequestration in California agriculture, 1980-2000.

To better understand agricultural carbon fluxes in California, USA, we estimated changes in soil carbon and woody material between 1980 and 2000 on 3.6 x 10(6) ha of farmland in California. Combining the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model with data on harvest indices and yields, we calculated net primary production, woody production in orchard and vineyard crops, and soil carbon. Over the 21-yr period, two trends resulted in carbon sequestration. Yields increased an average of 20%, corresponding to greater plant biomass and more carbon returned to the soils. Also, orchards and vineyards increased in area from 0.7 x 10(6) ha to 1.0 x 10(6) ha, displacing field crops and sequestering woody carbon. Our model estimates that California's agriculture sequestered an average of 19 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1). Sequestration was lowest in non-rice annual cropland, which sequestered 9 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) of soil carbon, and highest on land that switched from annual cropland to perennial cropland. Land that switched from annual crops to vineyards sequestered 68 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1), and land that switched from annual crops to orchards sequestered 85 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1). Rice fields, because of a reduction in field burning, sequestered 55 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) in the 1990s. Over the 21 years, California's 3.6 x 10(6) ha of agricultural land sequestered 11.0 Tg C within soils and 3.5 Tg C in woody biomass, for a total of 14.5 Tg C statewide. This is equal to 0.7% of the state's total fossil fuel emissions over the same time period. If California's agriculture adopted conservation tillage, changed management of almond and walnut prunings, and used all of its orchard and vineyard waste wood in the biomass power plants in the state, California's agriculture could offset up to 1.6% of the fossil fuel emissions in the state.     

中国农田固碳减排发展现状及其战略对策

自20世纪80年代以来,农田固碳减排的动态变化日益成为全球的研究热点,它对于正确评价农业产业对全球气候变化的影响具有重要的理论意义。采取农业分区的方法,将我国划分为4个不同的农业区,并从区域植被覆盖、地理气候、品种、土壤性质、种植制度和施肥情况等方面,综合分析了各区域农田固碳减排的基本现状。通过对我国农田固碳减排的各个影响因素进行系统阐述,探明了耕作措施、水田种植面积、秸秆还田、施肥情况、轮作制度、土地利用方式和农田生态系统等是影响我国农田固碳减排的主要关键因素。同时,针对目前我国农田固碳减排的基本状况,提出了适合我国农田固碳减排的主要对策。文章认为,应从加强农田碳循环和土壤碳汇效应、合理调整农田土地利用结构、加强农田管理技术体系创新、加强农田生物固碳减排技术研究和注重降低农业生产温室气体的排放等方面开展系统研究,从而进一步增强农田的土壤固碳能力和减少温室气体的排放,达到我国农田固碳减排的最终目的。     

推荐管理措施情景下黄淮海地区旱地土壤固碳潜力模拟研究——以河南省获嘉县为例

农田土壤固碳不仅可以减缓气候变化,而且能够提高土壤质量。推荐管理措施,如少、免耕和秸秆还田等,具有促进农田土壤有机碳（SOC）增加的巨大潜力。旱地占中国农田面积的70%以上,在固定大气CO2方面可以发挥重要作用。本研究基于黄淮海地区的一个旱地土壤肥力长期监测点数据并运用Century模型模拟了监测期间（1998～2007）土壤有机碳动态变化。在此基础上,设计了1种基础管理措施情景和4种推荐管理措施情景并模拟了它们未来20年的固碳潜力。模拟结果表明,监测期间监测点土壤有机碳密度增加2.72 Mg.hm-2,年均增加0.27 Mg.hm-2。土壤有机碳的增加主要是因为氮肥施用量的增加。模型验证结果表明,Century模型很好地模拟了监测点土壤有机碳的动态变化。各推荐管理措施均具有较大的固碳潜力,其中50%秸秆还田是比少、免耕更有效的固碳措施,而少耕＋50%秸秆还田的固碳潜力最大。因此,在黄淮海地区旱地推广实施推荐管理措施是促进农田土壤固碳的有效策略,有助于减缓大气CO2浓度升高和保障国家粮食安全。     

扎鲁特旗土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

利用 1988年和 1997年的TM影像数据 (覆盖范围主要包括扎鲁特旗行政辖区的中部低山丘陵区和南部倾斜冲积平原区的 2 0个苏木 ) ,通过计算扎鲁特旗 1988年至 1997年间土地利用转移矩阵 ,分析了该区域近 10a来土地利用 /覆盖的时空变化规律 ,并进而探究了导致该变化发生的自然、人文驱动因素。结果表明 :在 1988年至 1997年间 ,该区域林地和草地大面积减少 ,耕地大面积增加 ,土地沙化和盐碱化现象严重。探其原因主要是由社会、经济等人文因素造成 ,而包括气候波动在内的自然条件只是土地利用变化的背景条件     

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation

Climate change shifts the distributions of a set of climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and evaporation. This paper explores the importance of those additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation. Using the county-level agricultural data from 1980 to 2010 in China, we find that those additional climatic variables, especially humidity and wind speed, are critical for crop growth. Therefore, omitting those variables is likely to bias the predicted impacts of climate change on crop yields. In particular, omitting humidity tends to overpredict the cost of climate change on crop yields, while ignoring wind speed is likely to underpredict the effect. Our preferred specification indicates that climate change is likely to decrease the yields of rice, wheat, and corn in China by 36.25%, 18.26%, and 45.10%, respectively, by the end of this century.     

Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100 ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.     

Relationship of firm attributes,ownership structure and business network on climate change efforts: evidence from Malaysia

This paper presents a case study of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes from 1975 to 2014 in the central highlands of Ethiopia and traces out its impact on socioeconomic conditions of the local community in the study area. We used four time series Landsat satellite images, that is, Landsat MSS (1975), Landsat Thematic Mapper (1986), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (2000), and Landsat 8 OLI scenes (2014), to investigate the changes in LULC. In addition, individual interviews with 51 randomly selected households, discussions with focus group and key informants, and field observations were also incorporated for the study. The image classification indicated four categories of LULC classes: Natural forest, eucalyptus plantations, cropland/settlements, and grasslands. Between 1975 and 2014, cropland/settlements and eucalyptus plantations considerably increased, whereas grassland cover drastically decreased. According to the results, the area under cropland/settlements and eucalyptus plantations increased by 62 and 335%, respectively, with 74% concomitant decrease in the area of grasslands in the same period. Survey results showed that deterioration of soil fertility (41.2%) followed by shortage of land (35.3%) is the major constraint for crop production for poor farmers in the study area. However, better-off farmers ranked deterioration of soil fertility (64.7%) followed by lack of credit (17.6%) as priority constraints for crop production. Interviews mainly focused on selected women group revealed that the expansion of eucalyptus in the area greatly curbed the burdens of collecting fuel woods from long distances in the past. The availability of too many religious holidays (on average 16 days/month) directly or indirectly contributes to the current seasonal food shortages of the community. Generally, our results show that the community in the study area is beset with a host of social, economic, and institutional challenges. As a result, majority of the farming households are destitute, unable to make a livelihood from their small plot of land and live in absolute poverty. Therefore, in light of these finding, it is imperative that timely interventions by government and other development stakeholders are needed to come to grips with problems of soil fertility, land-use change, and food insecurity in the study area.