Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.     

Patterns of preference and practice: bridging actors in wildfire response networks in the American Northwest

The roles of bridging actors in emergency response networks can be important to disaster response outcomes. This paper is based on an evaluation of wildfire preparedness and response networks in 21 large‐scale wildfire events in the wildland—urban interface near national forests in the American Northwest. The study investigated how key individuals in responder networks anticipated seeking out specific people in perceived bridging roles prior to the occurrence of wildfires, and then captured who in fact assumed these roles during actual large‐scale events. It examines two plausible, but contradictory, bodies of theory—similarity and dissimilarity—that suggest who people might seek out as bridgers and who they would really go to during a disaster. Roughly one‐half of all pre‐fire nominations were consistent with similarity. Yet, while similarity is a reliable indicator of how people expect to organise, it does not hold up for how they organise during the real incident.     

五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践

作者曾分别于1991、1996、2002和2005年发表了关于灾害研究理论与实践的4篇文章,对灾害系统的性质、动力学机制、综合减灾范式,以及灾害科学体系等进行了探讨.在前4篇文章的基础上,就当前国际上灾害风险综合研究的趋势、应对巨灾行动,以及防范巨灾风险和加强综合减灾学科建设等方面进行了综合分析,阐述了对"区域灾害系统"作为"社会-生态系统"、"人地关系地域系统"和"可划分类型与多级区划体系"本质的认识;区分了"多灾种叠加"与"灾害链"损失评估的差异;论证了"综合灾害风险防范的结构、功能,及结构与功能优化模式";构建了由灾害科学、应急技术和风险管理共同组成的"灾害风险科学"学科体系.研究结果表明,通过综合减灾,防范巨灾风险已成为区域和全球可持续发展的重要措施,这一措施与资源节约型与环境友好型社会的建设,循环经济模式的发展,以及低碳经济模式的建立,共同构成了可持续发展战略实施的支撑体系.     

Risk communication and risk perception: lessons from the 2011 floods in Brisbane,Australia

Risk communication and risk perception are critical factors in disaster management. Governments at all levels play a part in communicating risk, whereas the perception of risk entails active roles by community participants, including potential and actual victims of disasters. This paper discusses these matters in relation to the floods in Brisbane, Australia, in 2011. The findings are based on interviews with representatives of households whose dwellings or business premises were fully or partially inundated by the waters. The research shows how important it is to recognise the problems of institutional fragmentation in terms of communication and the active engagement of recipients in understanding and interpreting flood risk information (especially for slow‐onset riverine flooding, such as that suffered by Brisbane). Locally targeted information on risk is of vital importance in avoiding the misinterpretation of warning information in relation to environmental cues and in promoting adequate responses. The paper concludes with some recommendations.     

Post-conflict disaster governance in Nepal: one-door policy,multiple-window practice

The response to the earthquakes in Nepal on 25 April and 12 May 2015 was as overwhelming as the magnitude of the events themselves. Tensions between the humanitarian imperative and the post-conflict state-building agenda soon became evident. Many actors offered support by creatively complying with the state's approach, whereas others bypassed official channels completely. In post-conflict settings such as Nepal, the situation is especially complicated because of the contradiction between policies underscoring the importance of the state in the response and the reality of the fragility of the state, which often leads to the significant involvement of aid organisations. The post-conflict political landscape of Nepal shaped the contours of the response, as well as how actors decided to operate within them. This paper, based on empirical findings from four months of research, contributes to a better understanding of the intricacies of the post-conflict and post-disaster nexus in the context of a state-led response.     

1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统风险特征分析及其综合风险管理

长期以来,海洋灾害一直是困扰着海域及海岸带社会经济发展的一大障碍.中国是深受海洋灾害影响的国家之一.为此,从灾害系统论的角度,分析了1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统的风险特征.研究表明,中国在过去的15年中,工程性防灾减灾措施已经使海洋灾害灾情得到了一定的控制,但由于中国海域海事活动不断增多、海岸带经济密度快速提高,大大增加了海域及海岸带承灾体对海洋灾害风险的暴露,又由于海岸带及近海海域污染加重,海洋生物灾害发生的可能性增大,使中国海域面临的灾害风险趋于上升.此外,还讨论了中国海洋灾害综合风险管理的体系,提出从海洋灾害系统角度,加强海洋灾害综合风险管理能力的建设,以促进海洋及海岸带地区由政府、企业、社区共同组成的综合减灾范式的建立.     

NGO initiatives in risk reduction: an overview

NGOs appear to be well placed to play a significant role in natural disaster mitigation and preparedness (DMP), working, as they do, with poorer and marginalised groups in society. However, there is little information on the scale or nature of NGO DMP activities. This paper reports the findings of a study seeking to address that gap. It confirms that NGOs are involved in a diverse range of DMP activities but that a number of them are not labelled as such. Moreover, evidence of the demonstrable quality and benefits of DMP involvement is poor. The paper concludes that a number of problems need to be overcome before DMP can be satisfactorily mainstreamed into NGO development and post-disaster rehabilitation programmes. However, there are some early indications of momentum for change.     

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries.     

Coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk in an urban Amazonian city

This paper investigates coping and adaptation strategies and institutional perceptions of hydrological risk at the local scale in Santarém, an Amazonian city in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods and tools of analysis encompassed secondary data, field observations, and qualitative techniques (focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews). Stakeholders from affected neighbourhoods describe their means of coping with and adapting to flooding, focusing on purposefulness, type of initiative and investment, risk timing, temporal and spatial scope, and performance. The results comprise an inventory of 16 mostly structural measures. The perceptions of six institutions of general responses to flooding are presented as opinions on actions that reduce the effects of such events, individual strategies and collective community endeavours in at-risk areas, and the activities of the public and private sectors to manage floods. Understanding of coping and adaptation strategies and knowledge of institutional flood risk perceptions can benefit the implementation of risk and disaster reduction policies and practices.     

四川省泥石流灾害保险的风险分析与区划

泥石流灾害保险的风险评估和区划，是分区分类防灾和损失评估的重要依据，也是泥石流灾害保险费率厘定的基础。采用综合评判的数学方法，选取对泥石流灾害保险起主导作用的灾害损失、孕灾环境和风险区价值为评判因子，对泥石流灾害保险的风险进行了评估。以四川省为例，介绍了进行风险区划的方法和步骤，将四川全省按地、市、州级行政区划分为19个风险评判区，对各区进行泥石流灾害保险风险评估，在此基础上完成了四川省泥石流灾害保险风险评估区划图。     

Health care system hazard vulnerability analysis: an assessment of all public hospitals in Abu Dhabi

Hazard vulnerability analysis (HVA) is used to risk‐stratify potential threats, measure the probability of those threats, and guide disaster preparedness. The primary objective of this project was to analyse the level of disaster preparedness in public hospitals in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, utilising the HVA tool in collaboration with the Disaster Medicine Section at Harvard Medical School. The secondary objective was to review each facility's disaster plan and make recommendations based on the HVA findings. Based on the review, this article makes eight observations, including on the need for more accurate data; better hazard assessment capabilities; enhanced decontamination capacities; and the development of hospital‐specific emergency management programmes, a hospital incident command system, and a centralised, dedicated regional disaster coordination centre. With this project, HVAs were conducted successfully for the first time in health care facilities in Abu Dhabi. This study thus serves as another successful example of multidisciplinary emergency preparedness processes.     

探索发展与减灾协调之路——从2006年达沃斯国际减灾会议看中国发展与减灾协调对策

介绍了于2006年8月28日至9月1日在瑞士达沃斯举行的国际减灾会议的主要内容。在阅读本次会议有关论文扩展摘要集内容。以及会议上散发的大量文件、研究报告的基础上,综述了当前国际减灾研究与实践工作中,学术界、政界与企业界等在探索协调发展与减灾进程中的主要进展和发展趋向。国际减灾界当前关注的主要领域为：建立灾害与风险科学,善待与重建生态系统,关注全球环境变化与灾害的密切关系,重视利用金融、保险和再保险手段转移风险,关注女性在灾害风险管理中的作用,关注恐怖主义对社会风险的强化作用,发展灾害风险管理的信息支撑平台,重视建设高风险地区综合减灾范式。在此基础上,针对中国可持续发展战略实施过程中存在的主要问题,提出中国协调发展与减灾对策为：建立国家协调发展与减轻灾害风险的管理体制与运行机制,加强控制综合灾害风险水平的生态系统等减灾基础设施建设,发挥女性在农村地区综合灾害风险管理中的作用,建立区域综合灾害风险管理与减灾范式和加强区域综合灾害风险防范关键技术的开发,促进灾害与风险学科体系的形成。     

合肥市防震减灾计算机信息管理系统——我国城市防震减灾示范研究与应用介绍

城市防震减灾是当今世界各国政府和地震科学家共同关心的重大课题及重点工作。“九五”期间,我国先后在部分大中城市开展了防震减灾的示范研究,建立了先进的防震减灾计算机信息管理系统。本文全面介绍了该项示范研究的城市之一－合肥市震害预测与防震减灾计算机信息管下系统的主要内容、研究特色和取得的工作成果。该技术系统的完成,对推进我国城市防震减灾的科学化、现代化管理和实现防震减灾十年目标将发挥积极的作用。     

Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and the most disaster‐prone countries in Asia; it is important, therefore, to know how its disaster reduction strategies are organised and planned. Cyclone shelters comprise a widely acceptable form of infrastructural support for disaster management in Bangladesh. This paper attempts to analyse empirically their use during cyclones in a sample study area along the southwest coastal belt of the country. It shows how the location of a cyclone shelter can determine the social power structure in coastal Bangladesh. The results reveal that the establishment of cyclone shelters in the studied communities is determined by neither a right‐based nor a demand‐based planning approach; rather, their creation is dependent on the socio‐political affluence of local‐level decision‐makers. The paper goes on to demonstrate that socially vulnerable households (defined, for example, by income or housing conditions) are afforded disproportionately less access to cyclone shelters as compared to less socially vulnerable households.     

加强综合灾害风险研究,提高迎对灾害风险能力——从第6届国际综合灾害风险管理论坛看我国的综合减灾

综述了第6届国际IIASA-DPRI综合灾害风险管理论坛的主要内容，并就中国综合灾害风险管理对策提出了具体的建议。本届论坛的主题是：风险与商业和产经界面临的挑战。论坛除主题报告外，共设置了16个分会场，就综合灾害风险信息共享平台（DRH）的建设、产经界如何迎对灾害风险、地震与洪水灾害风险的综合管理、灾害风险教育与减灾意识的养成、综合灾害风险管理的理论与方法论探讨，以及土耳其国家综合灾害风险管理的经验与教训等进行了深人的研讨。针对上述进展，从我国减灾工作现状，提出从三个方面加强我国综合减灾与灾害风险管理工作，即：各级政府在加强应急管理工作的同时，要高度重视从综合的角度完善减灾战略、规划和能力建设；全面改进产经界迎对灾害风险的能力，特别是非国有中小企业防御灾害风险的能力，以及大型国有企业灾害自保或参保机制的完善；加强综合灾害风险管理研究。     

Household self‐blame for disasters: responsibilisation and (un)accountability in decentralised participatory risk governance

The most important theoretical argument concerning decentralised participatory governance is that it can make a government more accountable for the needs of the governed. Key to this process are participatory spaces that act as mechanisms for dialogue between citizens and local government. However, within Cochabamba, a city in the centre of Bolivia, South America, ‘at‐risk’ citizens engage minimally with disaster risk issues in participatory spaces, despite high levels of civic participation. This is because ‘at‐risk’ populations view disasters as a private/household problem that is symptomatic of household error, rather than seeing them as a broader public problem due to wider structural inequalities. Consequently, they redistribute responsibility for disaster risk reduction towards households, which (re)produces the absolution of government authorities as guarantors of disaster risk reduction. This paper challenges the normative assumption that participatory spaces facilitate democratic deliberation of disaster risk reduction and the downward accountability of local government for disaster risk reduction.     

The politics of risk in the Philippines: comparing state and NGO perceptions of disaster management

It is now generally appreciated that what constitutes vulnerability to one person is not necessarily perceived as such by the next. Different actors 'see' disasters as different types of events and as a result they prepare for, manage and record them in very different ways. This paper explores what different perceptions of vulnerability mean in terms of the understanding and practices of two significant sets of actors and stakeholders involved in disaster preparedness and management in the Philippines: the state and NGOs. Approaches to disaster are not just a function of people's perceptions of disaster risk but also of their understanding of the prevailing social order and social relations. Despite a shared vocabulary—which increasingly presents disasters as processes rather than events, takes a proactive rather than a reactive approach, and favours the inclusion of stakeholders rather than solely relying on technocratic management—different realities continue to make for different responses.     

Academic publishing in disaster risk reduction: past,present, and future

Nowadays there are approximately 80 Anglophone journals that deal primarily with disaster risk reduction (DRR) and allied fields. This large array signals a sustained, if uneven, growth in DRR scholarship but also competition between the offerings of different publishers and institutions. The purpose of this article is first to summarise the development of academic publishing on DRR from its early beginnings to the present day. The paper then evaluates the current state of publishing in this field and discusses possible future trends. Next, it identifies some possible opportunities, challenges, expectations, and commitments for journal editors both within DRR and academia more broadly, including those that refer to changes in the use of terminology, the relentless increase in the number of papers submitted, the expansion and dangers of predatory journals, different peer review models, open access versus paywalls, citations and bibliography metrics, academic social networks, and copyright and distribution issues.     

可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论及实证研究(Ⅲ)——灾害数字仿真模型组构建

可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论研究，不仅可以实现对灾害空间数据进行有效的集成管理和时空分析，而且为灾害的防治、应急管理和工程论证等提供可靠的依据，是解决灾害实验的危险性和不可重复性的最佳途径。本文提出灾害数字仿真模型建立的原则和步骤，抓住灾害数字仿真的核心共性问题，构建灾害数字仿真模型组：构建灾害危险性分析指标体系，运用非确定性概率方法，建立灾害危险性分析概率模型；首次建立灾害波及范围模型，提出灾害波及范围的仿真流程，提出灾害波及范围理论值与实测值之间对比修正思路；研究了灾害损失形成机制，建立了灾害损失预测模型的框架与数值表达。     

Building safety in humanitarian programmes that support post-disaster shelter self-recovery: an evidence review

The humanitarian sector is increasingly aware of the role that good quality evidence plays in the underpinning of effective and accountable practice. This review addresses the need for reliable evidence by evaluating current knowledge about the intersection of two key outcome targets of post-disaster shelter response: supporting shelter self-recovery and building back safer. Evidence about post-disaster shelter programmes that aim to improve hazard resistance while supporting shelter self-recovery has been systematically analysed and evaluated. Technical support, especially training in safer construction techniques, was found to be a central programme feature, but the impact of this and other programme attributes on building safety was largely not ascertainable. Programme reports and studies lack sufficient detail, especially on the hazard resistance of repaired houses. Accounts of shelter programmes need to include more reliable reporting of key activities and assessment of outcomes, in order to contribute to the growing evidence base in this field.