盲数优化地积累模型评价长江中下游湖泊沉积物重金属污染

盲数优化地积累模型是基于最大隶属度原则和隶属度加权相结合的一种不确定性评价方法。鉴于污染评价系统多种不确定信息共存的特点,将盲数优化地积累模型应用于长江中下游不同类型湖泊沉积物中重金属污染程度评价中。根据计算出的可能值区间及可信度看空间分布的均匀性,以及评价等级的可信度水平,辨识污染程度和等级,减小局部污染对区域整体污染程度的影响。结果表明:象湖、鄱阳湖、洞庭湖3个湖泊表层沉积物中的重金属的空间分布都不均匀,象湖表层沉积物中重金属的污染情况为:PbCuZn,其中Pb为中度污染,Cu为轻度污染,Zn为清洁;鄱阳湖沉积物中重金属污染评价结果为Cu﹥Pb﹥Zn,其中Cu为中度污染,Pb为偏中度污染,Zn为偏重污染;洞庭湖沉积物中重金属污染评价结果为Cu≈Pb≈Zn,且均为轻度污染。盲数优化地积累模型方法可行,与定性评价结果基本一致,但在对污染等级判定上更真实可靠。弥补了传统确定性方法的不足,更真实、更客观地表征了评价区域沉积物重金属的富集污染程度。     

Provenancing anthropogenic Pb within the fluvial environment: developments and challenges in the use of Pb isotopes

The potentially deleterious presence of ore-derived Pb within riverine environments has been a long-term impact of industrial and anthropogenic activity in general. The surface drainage network has been widely established as a key transport mechanism and storage environment for anthropogenically-derived Pb and other potentially harmful trace metals. Lead isotopes ((204)Pb, (206)Pb, (207)Pb, (208)Pb) have been utilized as a geochemical tracer of Pb origin in a variety of environmental media, notably in atmospheric aerosols. However, given the relative complexity of dispersal processes within riverine environments, the use of Pb isotopes as geochemical tracers has been relatively limited and it is only relatively recently that a growing body of research has applied Pb isotopes to provenancing fluvially-dispersed Pb. This paper seeks to synthesize the developments in the use of Pb isotopes within riverine environments. In doing so it outlines the Pb-isotope fingerprinting technique and associated analytical developments, and assesses the application of Pb isotopes in establishing the origin and dispersal mechanisms of anthropogenically- and geogenically-derived Pb at a range of temporal and spatial scales. Of particular importance are the approaches quantifying source inputs using Pb isotopic signatures and the challenges faced, and options available in quantifying source inputs at the catchment scale; where Pb may be sourced from a variety (n=>2) of sources. The Pb isotopic signature of contemporary riverine Pb loads is shown to reflect a spatially complex influence of mineralization chemistry, anthropogenic activity as well as the hydro-morphological controls exerted upon Pb release, dispersal and storage. In relation to this, the long-term environmental legacy, and its influence upon Pb fingerprinting studies, of tetra-ethyl Pb, sourced from the combustion of leaded-petrol is also discussed. Finally, this paper places the use of Pb isotopes in the context of recently developed Cu and Zn isotopic fingerprinting techniques and assesses the role of Pb, Cu and Zn isotopes in a multi-proxy approach to geochemical tracing.     

A simple model for describing the concentration of 212Pb in the atmosphere

The implementation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is resulting in the construction of a world-wide system of 80 monitoring stations that will be able to detect air-borne radioactivity, not only from atomic bombs but also from other anthropogenic and natural sources. A prototype monitoring station has been operating since April 1996 in Vancouver, BC, Canada. This station provides daily reports of natural radioactivity, including 7Be and decay products of 220Rn (thoron). Data for 212Pb concentrations have been analyzed over a 6-month period. The concentration is reduced by rainfall, high wind velocity, and low temperatures and it also depends on the wind direction, but atmospheric inversions appeared to have little impact. We present a relatively simple model, which is easy to use and which offers predictive powers that can be applied to other similar environmental situations.     

应用平衡分配法建立长江水系沉积物金属相对质量基准

在不同的条件下,沉积物可成为环境中污染物的“源”或“汇”,而受污染的沉积物会对水生生物带来危害。因此,需要制定沉积物质量基准(SQC),以此作为评价沉积物污染及其生态效应的基础。在过去的几年中,对利用平衡分配法来建立SQC的方法进行了广泛的研究,并被认为是最有效的方法之一。采用平衡分配法,初步建立了长江水系8种重金属及类金属(Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, Fe, Hg,As)的沉积物相对质量基准。结果表明,上述重金属及类金属的SQC在从长江上游到下游,总体趋势上呈降低的分布特征,并由于地域环境条件的不同,存在着高SQC值单元及低SQC值单元。得出的SQC与国内已有的SQC具有可比性,但高于美国国家环保局提出的SQC,主要是由于采用平衡分配法建立的SQC是一种数值型的基准值,缺乏生物效应的校正。因此,在将其应用到沉积物污染状况评价之前,还需要进行深入的研究工作,特别是毒理学试验。     

Nonformal environmental education: a case study with farmers in a town of the South Minas Gerais state,Brazil

Brazil is a central place in the international agricultural markets and this fact has been demanding environmentally oriented agricultural practices by Brazilian farmers and professionals involved in the agricultural market chain. A concise and structured questionnaire was applied to obtain the environmental perception of a group of Brazilian farmers in a town of the south Minas Gerais state, using herbicides as the topic for a case study. A highly variable opinion about taking the environment into account when choosing the most appropriate herbicide was found. Anyway, efficacy has been indicated as the most important factor when choosing an herbicide, followed by the environment and price. The outcomes from the questionnaires, i.e. the insufficient conception and importance given to environment when choosing the herbicide, motivated the creation of a teaching-learning model for the nonformal environmental education using the concept of socio-ecological resilience. This routine puts in practice the resilience thinking currently invoked as a major tool to achieve the conservation of the socio-ecological system, as well as it is complimentary to the outcome-oriented optimization for conservation theory. For the case study about farmers and the use of herbicides, we conclude that a complex reasoning and, ultimately, pro-environmental actions can be improved after experiencing the recommended model for environmental education.     

Studies on the distribution of 210Po and 210Pb in the ecosystem of Point Calimere Coast (Palk Strait), India

A systematic study on the natural radionuclides such as 210Po and 210Pb in the environmental matrices of Point Calimere ecosystem has been undertaken to establish a baseline data on the radiation profile of Point Calimere environment. The environmental samples such as water, sediment and biota (seaweeds, crustaceans, molluscs and fish) have been subjected to analyses. It has been observed that the concentration of 210Po and 210Pb in the water samples of Point Calimere to be 0.5 mBq/l and 1.3 mBq/l, respectively. The soft tissues of the organisms accumulated higher 210Po content while shells and bones contained more 210Pb. The bivalve molluscs Meretrix casta have been identified to accumulate higher concentration of 210Po suggesting that they could serve as bio-indicator of radionuclides like 210Po in the Point Calimere ecosystem. The concentration factor of 210Po for the biotic components ranged from approximately 10(3) to 10(6) while for 210Pb it ranged from approximately 10(3) to 10(5).     

Inhalation of 210Po and 210Pb from cigarette smoking in Poland.

The carcinogenic etfect of 210Po and 210Pb with respect to lung cancer is an important problem in many countries with very high cigarette consumption. Poland has one of the highest consumptions of cigarettes in the world. The results of 210Po determination on the 14 most frequently smoked brands of cigarettes which constitute over 70% of the total cigarette consumption in Poland are presented and discussed. Moreover, the polonium content in cigarette smoke was estimated on the basis of its activity in fresh tobaccos, ash, fresh filters and post-smoking filters. The annual effective doses were calculated on the basis of 210Po and 210Pb inhalation with the cigarette smoke. The results of this work indicate that Polish smokers who smoke one pack (20 cigarettes) per day inhale from 20 to 215 mBq of 210Po and 210Pb each. The mean values of the annual effective dose for smokers were estimated to be 35 and 70 microSv from 210Po and 210Pb, respectively. For persons who smoke two packs of cigarettes with higher radionuclide concentrations, the effective dose is much higher (471 microSv yr(-1)) in comparison with the intake in diet. Therefore, cigarettes and the absorption through the respiratory system are the main sources and the principal pathway of 210Po and 210Pb intake of smokers in Poland.     

上海城郊土壤重金属含量的空间变异与分布特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响,选择上海城郊结合部为研究区域,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Mn 5种重金属的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：土壤Cu、Cr、Mn、Pb、Zn均属中等变异,土壤Mn含量服从正态分布,土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn含量服从对数正态分布;半方差函数模型拟合结果显示土壤Mn符合指数模型,土壤Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn符合线性模型、其中土壤Cu、Pb、Zn为纯块金效应模型,反映了城郊结合部土壤污染空间变异的复杂性。通过泛克里格插值可直观反应表层土壤重金属含量空间分布特征,发现土壤Cr、Mn呈岛状,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn呈多岛状分布的特点,工业和交通污染源是影响土壤重金属空间分布的重要因素     

Critical compilation and review of plant/soil concentration ratios for uranium,thorium and lead

The transfer of natural radionuclides of the U decay series through the biosphere is important, especially for assessment of the impacts of mining and milling of U ores. The pathway from soil through plants to humans can contribute significantly to the overall dose received from these radionuclides. Element-specific concentration ratios (CRs) used to model the impact of radionuclides have been reported for U, Th and Pb but have not received the research or critical review accorded other radionuclides associated with the nuclear industry. This paper compiles and analyses many of the available data on CRs for U, Th and Pb and recommends values appropriate for environmental assessments. A brief overview of the statistical properties of CR values and the complex soil/plant processes encompassed by this ratio is also given, as well as an overview of some of the physical, chemical and biological factors likely to influence CR values.Our analysis showed that CR values decreased significantly as the corresponding soil concentrations increased. Although the variability was substantial, with ranges of 1000- to 30 000-fold, CR values did differ significantly among some soil and plant types. The overall geometric means were 0·0045, 0·0036 and 0·052 for U, Th and Pb, respectively.     

虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析模型

虚拟水是水资源需求管理的创新领域。投入产出法是研究虚拟水的重要方法,但既有研究多以线性静态投入产出模型为主,存在较强的比例性假设,在解释现实经济活动中的虚拟水贸易时存在一定缺陷和不足。为更加贴近现实状况,本文利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)思想,设计了一种新的虚拟水测算思路,对传统的线性静态投入产出模型进行了非线性和动态化的拓展,旨在对区域经济系统中的虚拟水贸易进行更加科学合理的计算和考察。首先,参照国家统计机构常用的42产业部门划分方式,根据一般均衡理论,围绕区域经济系统的生产模块、价格模块和供需平衡模块三个部分,定义有关变量和参数,对区域经济系统非线性动态投入产出模型进行了详细的方程列写。在此基础上,将虚拟水流动的因素与一般形式的非线性动态投入产出模型进行嵌套,采用"母表"(价值型流量表)和"子表"(水资源流量表)相结合的形式,给出了一种全新的区域水资源投入产出表的设计思路与编制方法,将可计算非线性动态产出模型从一般形式扩展至水资源领域,构建了区域经济系统中虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析框架。分析同时指出,通过对该模型进行求解,可以推导和计算平衡增长路径和最优增长路径下的区域经济系统产出结构和用水结构,并可结合虚拟水贸易对区域经济的作用机理,分析最优增长路径下实施虚拟水贸易对区域经济增长的贡献。     

Aspects on the analysis of 210Po

There has been little development regarding analysis of polonium (Po) in environmental samples since the 1960ies. This is due to the straightforward spontaneous deposition of this element on silver (Ag), nickel (Ni) or copper (Cu) without any radiochemical separation. For many years, no radiochemical yield determinant was used and it was generally supposed that the yield was 100% after two depositions. Counting was often done using ZnS scintillation counter coupled to a photomultiplier tube. However, the use of the yield determinants ²⁰⁸Po and ²⁰⁹Po and the development of alpha spectrometry showed that the yield was lower. Furthermore, the tendency of Po to volatilize at low temperatures constrains the sample preparation techniques; dry-ashing cannot be used. But during the wet-ashing procedure, there are still some losses.The aim of this study was to evaluate the Po losses during wet-ashing by the use of a double-tracer technique. We have found that the losses were about 30% when open glass beakers were used and about 17% when the samples were digested in microwave oven. When long-necked bottles (Kjeldahl flasks) were used, a loss of about 20% was registered.It has also been observed that ²¹⁰Pb to some extent is plating out together with its daughter nuclide Po during the electrochemical deposition. This will result in a systematic error since an unknown amount of supported ²¹⁰Po will be produced from the ²¹⁰Pb decay depending on the fraction of ²¹⁰Pb being deposited on the disc and the waiting time between deposition and measurement of the sample. A further consequence of this is that in the assessment of the ²¹⁰Pb content in the sample, very often the remaining liquid is stored after deposition for build-up of ²¹⁰Po. Since some ²¹⁰Pb is lost on the disc, the result for ²¹⁰Pb will be too low. Both these systematic errors give rise to a too high ²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb ratio. The fraction of ²¹⁰Pb which is plating out has been assessed in this study for different matrices and is about 50-90%. During the measurement by solid state Si-detectors, some Po is evaporated in the vacuum conditions contaminating the detectors. Experiments have here been done by heating the discs after deposition which indicate that less Po is evaporated from Ag than from Ni. The losses from Ag are less than that from the other metals probably due to a deeper penetration into the surface of Po. We conclude that in most aspects, Ag is better to use than the other plating metals.     

Conservation of Sarawak peat swamp in an urban landscape by fuzzy inference system

Freshwater habitats are one of the planet’s most important, yet most manipulated, environments. This is what happens in Sarawak that the environment has been radically changed due to urban developments. This paper is promoting the idea that we do not need a complicated but a simple tool like fuzzy inference system to strike a balance between the existence of peat swamp and the humans who live nearer and nearer to it. Conditions vital to the survival and continuity of a natural wetland system can be adapted as fuzzy rules. These rules are capable of providing indicators of how much wetland can be exploited and at the same time still allow the system to properly functioning as a wetland.     

Factors controlling 7Be and 210Pb atmospheric deposition as revealed by sampling individual rain events in the region of Geneva, Switzerland

Bulk atmospheric deposition of 7Be and 210Pb has been measured at Versoix, close to Geneva, Switzerland. Collectors were continuously deployed from November 1997 through November 1998 for periods from 1 to 22 days depending on the frequency of rain. The activities of 7Be and 210Pb integrated over the sampling interval were moderately well correlated with rainfall (r2 of 0.66 and 0.55, respectively; p < 0.001) and well correlated one with the other (r2 of 0.91; p < 0.001). The 7Be/210Pb activity ratio is close to 13.5, except for samples collected in the periods of very low precipitation which have a distinctly lower ratio. A simple model accounting for rainfall, seasonal variations and reload of the local atmosphere after a rain event explains 90% of the variance of 7Be and 210Pb deposition. Concentrations of 210Pb and Ca++ in rain were correlated with transport time of air masses over the continent as indicated by reconstruction of air mass trajectories over three days.     

Partitioning of radionuclides and trace elements in phosphogypsum and its source materials based on sequential extraction methods

Phosphogypsum is a waste produced by the phosphate fertilizer industry. Although phosphogypsum is mainly calcium sulphate dihydrate, it contains elevated levels of impurities, which originate from the source phosphate rock used in the phosphoric acid production. Among these impurities, radionuclides from 238U and 232Th decay series are of most concern due to their radiotoxicity. Other elements, such as rare earth elements (REE) and Ba are also enriched in the phosphogypsum. The bioavailability of radionuclides (226Ra, 210Pb and 232Th), rare earth elements and Ba to the surrounding aquatic system was evaluated by the application of sequential leaching of the phosphogypsum samples from the Brazilian phosphoric acid producers. The sequential extraction results show that most of the radium and lead are located in the "iron oxide" (non-CaSO4) fraction, and that only 13-18% of these radionuclides are distributed in the most labile fraction. Th, REE and Ba were found predominantly in the residual phase, which corresponds to a small fraction of the phosphate rock or monazite that did not react and to insoluble compounds such as sulphates, phosphates and silicates. It can be concluded that although all these elements are enriched in the phosphogypsum samples they are not associated with CaSO4 itself and therefore do not represent a threat to the surrounding aquatic environment.     

Distribution of (226)Ra-(210)Pb-(210)Po in marine biota and surface sediments of the Red Sea, Sudan

Activity concentration levels and ratios of (226)Ra, (210)Pb and (210)Po are presented in multicellular marine algae, molluscs, coral as well as in surface marine sediments collected from the shallower waters of the fringing reefs area extending towards north and south (Flamingo bay) of PortSudan harbour, Sudan. The analyses were performed adopting alpha-spectrometry, liquid scintillation and Cerenkov counting techniques. Surface sediments from this coastal region are poor in their radioactivity content in contrast to similar data reported from different coastal areas around the globe. There is surface enrichment of (210)Pb and (210)Po with respect to their progenitor (226)Ra as it is evident from the activity ratios of (210)Pb/(226)Ra (3.03+/-1.79) and (210)Po/(226)Ra (2.23+/-1.56). Among marine plants and animals investigated, the green algae species, Halimeda, and coral species, Favites, show substantial concentration of radium at 8.2Bq/kg and 21.9Bq/kg dry weight, respectively. Similarly, the highest concentration of (210)Po was met in Favites at 38.7Bq/kg followed by brown algae, Cystoseria sp., at 32.6Bq/kg. There is no variation seen among algal species for (210)Pb uptake, however, converse to radium and polonium, Favites (coral) was found to contain the minimum concentration of lead (3.88Bq/kg). In most species there is preferential accumulation of polonium over its parent radium as indicated by (210)Po:(226)Ra activity ratio with Cystoseria (brown algae) showing the highest value at 8.81. On the other hand, (210)Po:(210)Pb activity concentration ratio revealed that coral species Favites (9.97) and the brown algae Sargassum (1.85) have a greater tendency to accumulate (210)Po over (210)Pb, while in the rest of species; this ratio is less than unity.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

“城郊乡”梯度下土壤Cu、Zn、Pb含量的空间变异特征

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤环境质量的影响,选择能反映上海城郊乡梯度差异的中心城区、城郊结合部和远郊,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品Cu、Zn、Pb的空间变异结构和分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明:城市土壤Pb、Cu、Zn的变异系数范围为0.24~0.62,均属中等变异强度。徐汇区土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合正态分布,闵行区土壤Cu、Pb和Zn符合对数正态分布,奉贤区土壤Zn呈正态分布,土壤Cu、Pb符合对数正态分布。由中心城区到远郊,城市土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的各项统计特征值和变异系数均有较大差异,存在明显的空间分布差异。半方差函数分析结果表明,徐汇区作为中心城区,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn符合球状模型,土壤Cu、Zn具有强烈的空间相关性,土壤Pb具有明显的空间自相关。奉贤区以农业用地为主,土壤Pb符合线性模型,土壤Cu符合高斯模型,土壤Zn符合指数模型,具有强烈的空间相关性。闵行区地处城郊结合部,土壤Cu、Pb、Zn的半方差拟合模型均为线性模型,表现为纯块金形式,以随机变异为主,空间相关性弱。采用Kriging最优内插法进行无偏估值,绘制了表层土壤重金属含量的空间分布图,中心城区、城郊结合部、郊区土壤重金属的空间分布受城市化、工业化、城市交通等因素的影响,均表现出不同的空间分布规律。     

Multi-elemental EDXRF mapping of polluted soil from former horticultural land

The distribution of major and trace elements was systematically investigated by use of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF) on a former horticultural soil. The purpose of the study was to combine mapping of soil element concentration levels with multivariate statistics for characterisation of soil metal pollution in relation to previous and present land use. A 1-ha study site was chosen from a former horticulture where a previous preliminary survey indicated increased concentration levels of toxic elements. The soil was sampled from the top 20 cm of the soil surface in a 10 x 10-m grid-like pattern covering the 1-ha study area. In addition, three soil profiles were studied. The elemental composition of the soil samples was investigated by EDXRF while the composition of aqueous soil extracts was determined by total reflection X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (TXRF). Based on mapping and multivariate statistically analysis of the data obtained by EDXRF, most elements were found in almost constant concentration levels in the top soil throughout the investigated site. However, the contents of the toxic elements Zn, Cu, As, and Pb were found to vary significantly within the area. Hence, the samples with high accumulations of As also contained relatively high amounts of Zn, Cu, and Pb, which indicates that toxic-element-containing pesticides have been applied to the soil surface in the area of the former green houses at the study site. The Pb/As mass ratio in the soil indicates that PbHAsO3 was the preferential lead arsenate used for pest management at the investigated site, while Cu as Bordeaux liquid (CuSO4) and Zn were applied to minimize the leaf damaging effect from the former compounds. Calculations indicated that As annually was applied to the soil in the former greenhouses in doses up to 4 kg As/ha while Pb had been annually applied in doses up to 12 kg Pb/ha. The enrichment of Zn, Cu, As and Pb was greatest in the top 20 cm of the soil and no anthropogenic enrichment of these elements occurred below a depth of 50 cm, indicating that the toxic elements are rather immobile in this soil. The results of this investigation suggest that EDXRF used in combination with multivariate statistics is a strong tool for multi-element mapping of elemental contents, sources and mobility in the terrestrial environment.     

Using ²¹⁰Pb measurements to estimate sedimentation rates on river floodplains

Growing interest in the dynamics of floodplain evolution and the important role of overbank sedimentation on river floodplains as a sediment sink has focused attention on the need to document contemporary and recent rates of overbank sedimentation. The potential for using the fallout radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and excess ²¹⁰Pb to estimate medium-term (10-10² years) sedimentation rates on river floodplains has attracted increasing attention. Most studies that have successfully used fallout radionuclides for this purpose have focused on the use of ¹³⁷Cs. However, the use of excess ²¹⁰Pb potentially offers a number of advantages over ¹³⁷Cs measurements. Most existing investigations that have used excess ²¹⁰Pb measurements to document sedimentation rates have, however, focused on lakes rather than floodplains and the transfer of the approach, and particularly the models used to estimate the sedimentation rate, to river floodplains involves a number of uncertainties, which require further attention. This contribution reports the results of an investigation of overbank sedimentation rates on the floodplains of several UK rivers. Sediment cores were collected from seven floodplain sites representative of different environmental conditions and located in different areas of England and Wales. Measurements of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs were made on these cores. The ²¹⁰Pb measurements have been used to estimate sedimentation rates and the results obtained by using different models have been compared. The ¹³⁷Cs measurements have also been used to provide an essentially independent time marker for validation purposes. In using the ²¹⁰Pb measurements, particular attention was directed to the problem of obtaining reliable estimates of the supported and excess or unsupported components of the total ²¹⁰Pb activity of sediment samples. Although there was a reasonable degree of consistency between the estimates of sedimentation rate provided by the ¹³⁷Cs and excess ²¹⁰Pb measurements, some differences existed and the various models used to interpret excess ²¹⁰Pb measurements could produce different results. By using the ¹³⁷Cs measurements to provide independent validation of the estimates of sedimentation rate provided by the different models used with the excess ²¹⁰Pb measurement it was shown that the CICCS and Composite CRS models appeared to generally provide the best results.     

GIS支持的县域人口迁移空间模型研究--以浙江省临安市为例

人口迁移引起人口的数量、质量、结构等要素的空间分布发生变化,是人口地理学研究的重要内容之一。目前对人口迁移模型的研究大多是以行政区划作为计算单元,难以反映小尺度下行政区内部的人口迁移态势。在GIS的支持下,提出构建县域人口迁移引力模型,选择县域内独立的居民区片为计算单元来评价乡镇的人口吸引潜力和人口最大可能迁移目的地分布。以浙江省临安市为实验区,实现模型的运算,检验结果表明模型能较好地反映各乡镇对人口的实际吸引力,为研究区制定人口、经济等政策和辅助规划提供了科学合理的依据。