Mountain communities and climate change adaptation: barriers to planning and hurdles to implementation in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region of North America

Geographic factors make mountain communities around the world vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, and reliance on recreation and tourism can increase vulnerability to the secondary economic impacts.The goal of this research was to investigate the current state of community adaptation planning in the Southern Rocky Mountain region of North America. Using original survey data this paper discusses the challenges that community and county officials currently face, the perceived effects of future climate change in this region, and the perceived barriers to adaptation planning and hurdles to adaptation implementation. Results show lack of resources, information and political will are the most commonly reported barriers to adaptation. This paper also examines the connectivity between mountain communities and the surrounding federal public lands. Fifty one percent of respondents report that decisions made on nearby public lands frequently or always affect planning and decision making in their community. Collaborative efforts between these entities are proposed as a way to reduce the resource burden of adaptation planning for both entities. Finally, this paper discusses how attitudes and beliefs about climate change affect responses to questions about adaptation planning. On average, respondents who report higher levels of concern about and belief in climate change and those who are better informed about climate change report higher levels of adaptation planning. Elected officials in this sample have, on average, lower concern about and belief in climate change than bureaucratic respondents. Thus changes in elected official composition or improved leadership on climate change planning by incumbent officials could facilitate progress on adaptation     

温度对底栖端足类河蜾蠃蜚(Corophium acherusicum)存活、生长和发育的影响

河蜾赢蜚(Corophium acherusicum)生长发育的适温范围为15～25℃,最适温度为20℃.在适宜范围内实验室恒温培养的河蜾赢蜚生长优于自然环境.本文较细致的记录了河蜾赢蜚的发育状况,在适宜范嗣内河蜾赢蜚幼体的发育随温度的提高而加快.研究结果表明,河蜾赢蜚实验室培养温度宜选择在15～25℃,用其进行沉积物毒性生物检测的实验温度宜选择在20℃.     

Microhydro electrification and climate change adaptation in Nepal: socioeconomic lessons from the Rural Energy Development Program (REDP)

This article explores the potential for microhydro installations in Nepal to improve adaptive capacity in addition to their ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. After explaining its methods of data collection—namely field research and research interviews—the article explores the climate change adaptation benefits of microhydro plants being promoted under the Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP). Besides displacing fossil fuels, in particular kerosene for lighting, microhydro electrification offers an effective way of improving community assets and bolstering social resilience (thereby enhancing the adaptive capacity of communities there). Our own survey of REDP project sites reveals how microhydro units have improved community income levels, equalized gender roles, enhanced access to education and information, and reduced migration patterns. The article concludes by highlighting three key lessons—the role of extensive community mobilization, proactive capacity building for efficient electricity use, and the need for comprehensiveness—for those wishing to adapt to climate change in other rural and developing economies.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Impacts of land use,restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400–3000 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440–1200 Mg CO₂?ha^?1, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO₂ over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.     

Assessing high impacts of climate change: spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ecosystem services in northern Japan (Teshio River watershed)

Ecosystem services (ESs) provide information on the tendency of ecosystems to reach and form a state of equilibrium. The process of ES changes is important in order to identify the climate change-related causes that occur regionally to globally. ES-based management plays an important role in mitigation strategies for the negative impact of global climate change on ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate spatial characteristics and relationships among these multiple services from different spatial scales which could aid in multiple ES sustainable development from local to global scales. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics and interactive relationships of multiple ESs. We analyzed the spatial distributions of six hydrological ESs that are important in the northernmost part of Japan (Teshio River watershed) by using hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) under baseline climate conditions and climate change derived from the global circulation model (GCM). We then explored the spatial characteristic scales of ESs by multiscale analysis (lacunarity estimation) to reveal provision flow and spatial distribution characteristics for hydrological ESs. We observed a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of land uses and ES provision. The spatial characteristics of individual hydrological ESs were totally different and had different spatial homogeneity and cluster (indicated by initial lacunarity index and lacunarity dimension). The results also showed trade-offs between inorganic nutrient retention (provision ESs) and organic nutrient and sediment retentions (regulating ESs), and synergies between organic nutrient retention and sediment retention under all climate change scenarios. The different stakeholders will take different mitigation programs (e.g., establishing riparian vegetation, planning nutrient management practices, and integrating climate change model into systematic conservation planning of ESs) to avoid negative impacts of climate change on ESs. Application of this proposed framework to study the spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ESs under climate change could provide understanding on the impact of climate change on ES changes and solutions to mitigate strategies to cope with those changes in the future.     

Strengthening the link between climate change adaptation and national development plans: lessons from the case of population in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)

As climate change adaptation planning moves beyond short term National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) to longer-term approaches, it is instructive to review the NAPA process and examine how well it was linked to national development planning. This paper reviews 41 NAPAs submitted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to assess the NAPA process in terms of NAPAs integration with countries’ national development strategies. The review outlines the actors involved in developing NAPAs and identifies the range of interventions included in countries’ priority adaptation actions. The paper uses the example of population as an issue related to both climate change and national development to assess how it is addressed as part of LDCs’ adaptation and national development agendas. The analysis shows that although countries recognize population pressure as an issue related to the ability to cope with climate change and as a factor hindering progress in meeting development goals, it is not well incorporated into either adaptation planning or in national development strategies. Among the 41 NAPAs, 37 link high and rapid population growth to climate change. Moreover, six NAPAs clearly state that slowing population growth or investments in reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) should be considered among the country’s priority adaptation actions. Furthermore, two NAPAs actually propose a project with components of RH/FP among their priority adaptation interventions, although none of them has yet been funded. The paper points to structural issues that hamper better alignment between climate change adaptation and national development planning and offers recommendations for longer-term adaptation strategies that better meet the development needs of countries.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021–2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039–0.056 °C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28–3.29 % compared with the 1991–2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021–2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53–9.67 % relative to 1991–2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model’s projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.     

Effects of ground-level ozone (O_3) pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat in the Yangtze River Delta

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Response of the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi) to climate change in relation to its pest status, vectoring potential and function in a crop-vector-virus pathosystem

Global climate change threatens world food production via direct effects on plant growth and alterations to pest and pathogen prevalence and distribution. Complex relationships between host plant, pest, pathogen and environment create uncertainty particularly involving vector-borne diseases. We attempt to improve the understanding of the effects of climate change via a detailed review of one crop-vector-pathogen system.The bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, is a global pest of cereals and vector of yellow dwarf viruses that cause significant crop losses in cereals. R. padi exhibits both sexual and parthenogenetic reproduction, alternating between crops and other host plants. In Australia, only parthenogenesis occurs due to the absence of the primary host, thus the aphid continuously cycles from grasses to cereals, allowing for continuous virus acquisition and transmission.We have reviewed the potential impact of future climate projections on R. padi population dynamics, persistence, abundance, dispersal and migration events as well as the interactions between vector, virus, crop and environment, all of which are critical to the behaviour and development of the vector and its ability to transmit the virus. We identify a number of knowledge gaps that currently limit efforts to determine how this pathosystem will function in a future climate.     

Effects of life-history traits on parasitism in a monogamous mammal, the eastern rock sengi (Elephantulus myurus)

The distribution of parasites is often characterised by substantial aggregation with a small proportion of hosts harbouring the majority of parasites. This pattern can be generated by abiotic and biotic factors that affect hosts and determine host exposure and susceptibility to parasites. Climate factors can change a host’s investment in life-history traits (e.g. growth, reproduction) generating temporal patterns of parasite aggregation. Similarly, host age may affect such investment. Furthermore, sex-biased parasitism is common among vertebrates and has been linked to sexual dimorphism in morphology, behaviour and physiology. Studies exploring sex-biased parasitism have been almost exclusively conducted on polygynous species where dimorphic traits are often correlated. We investigated the effects of season and life-history traits on tick loads of the monogamous eastern rock sengi (Elephantulus myurus). We found larger tick burdens during the non-breeding season possibly as a result of energetic constraints and/or climate effects on the tick. Reproductive investment resulted in increased larval abundance for females but not males and may be linked to sex-specific life-history strategies. The costs of reproduction could also explain the observed age effect with yearling individuals harbouring lower larval burdens than adults. Although adult males had the greatest larval tick loads, host sex appears to play a minor role in generating the observed parasite heterogeneities. Our study suggests that reproductive investment plays a major role for parasite patterns in the study species.     

华北PM2.5重污染对东北和长三角空气质量的影响

利用中国环境监测总站的PM_(2.5)(Particulate Matter with aerodynamic≤2.5μm)数据、ERA-interim再分析资料等,结合混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模型(HYSPLIT4),重点分析了华北地区PM_(2.5)的时空分布特征及该地区PM_(2.5)重污染对我国东北、长三角地区空气质量的影响。结果表明,华北地区是中国PM_(2.5)的高值区,2015、2016和2017年华北地区年平均PM_(2.5)质量浓度分别为62.1、59.5和56.8μg/m~3,呈减小趋势。该地区冬季PM_(2.5)污染最严重,部分区域的平均浓度甚至超过110μg/m~3。个例研究表明,来自华北的污染物可在大约48 h后输送至东北和长三角地区,分别占当地污染物总量的21%和71%;同时,在冬季弱高压系统和地形的共同影响下,华北地区42%的污染物不易扩散而局限在本地,15%的污染物向长三角方向输送,不易向东北方向输送。     

Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Assessment of trophic change and its probable impact on tropical estuarine environment (the Kodungallur-Azhikode estuary, India)

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population density and domestic waste disposal, effluent discharges from industrial processes, agriculture and aquaculture will likely continue and increases the process of eutrophication in estuarine environments. Eutrophication is one of the leading causes of degraded water quality, water column hypoxia/anoxia, harmful algal bloom (HAB) and loss of habitat and species diversity in the estuarine environment. The present study attempts to characterize the trophic condition of coastal estuary using a simple tool; trophic index (TRIX) based on a linear combination of the log of four state variables with supplementary index Efficiency Coefficient (Eff. Coeff.) as a discriminating tool. Numerically, the index TRIX is scaled from 0 to10, covering a wide range of trophic conditions from oligotrophic to eutrophic. Study area Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) was comparatively shallow in nature with average depth of 3.6?±?0.2?m. Dissolve oxygen regime in the water column was ranged from 4.7?±?1.3?mgL^?1 in Station I to 5.9?±?1.4?mgL^?1 in Station IV. The average nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N) of KAE water was 470?mg?m^?3; values ranged from Av. 364.4?mg?m^?3 at Station II to Av. 626.6?mg?m^?3at Station VII. The mean ammonium-nitrogen (NH ₄ ⁺ -N) varied from 54.1?mg?m^?3 at Station VII to 101?mg?m^?3 at Station III. The average Chl-a for the seven stations of KAE was 6.42?±?3.91?mg?m^?3. Comparisons over different spatial and temporal scales in the KAE and study observed that, estuary experiencing high productivity by the influence of high degree of eutrophication; an annual average of 6.91 TRIX was noticed in the KAE and seasonal highest was observed during pre monsoon period (7.15) and lowest during post monsoon period (6.51). In the spatial scale station V showed high value 7.37 and comparatively low values in the station VI (6.93) and station VII (6.96) and which indicates eutrophication was predominant in land cover area with comparatively high water residence time. Eff. Coeff. values in the KAE ranges from ?2.74 during monsoon period to the lowest of ?1.98 in pre monsoon period. Present study revealed that trophic state of the estuary under severe stress and the restriction of autochthonous and allochthonous nutrient loading should be keystone in mitigate from eutrophication process.     

Effects of temperature on population growth and intake of food by the army worm, Mythimna separata (Walker)

Population life tables of the army worm, Mythimna separata, were constructed and nutritional parameters of food for the larvae were examined at 5 temperatures from 16℃ to 32℃. The temperature suitable for growth and reproduction of the insect ranged from 20℃ to 28℃ with the optimum of 24℃. Their survivalship and fecundity were much poorer at 32℃ than at 16℃. Indices of population trend of the insect at these temperatures could well fitted with the parabolic curve which theoretically indicated that the population density would multiply by some 660 after one generation circle at the optimal temperature, 22.6℃, and it would decline at temperatures higher than 32.9℃ or lower than 12.3℃. Larval food intake and their AD tended to go up while their ECI and ECD to go down with a rise in temperature. These alterations in population size and feeding behavior caused by temperature would exert an important effect on their damage to crops.     

Influence of tree species composition,thinning intensity and climate change on carbon sequestration in Mediterranean mountain forests: a case study using the CO2Fix model

Prediction of future forest carbon (C) stocks as influenced by forest management and climate is a crucial issue in the search for strategies to mitigate and adapt to global change. It is hard to quantify the long-term effect of specific forest practices on C stocks due to the high number of processes affected by forest management. This work aims to quantify how forest management impacts C stocks in Mediterranean mountain forests based on 25 combinations of site index, tree species composition and thinning intensity in three different climate scenarios using the CO2Fix v.3.2 model Masera et al. (Ecol Modell 164:177–199, 2003). The study area is an ecotonal zone located in Central Spain, and the tree species are Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.). Our results show a strong effect of tree species composition and a negligible effect of thinning intensity. Mixed stands have the highest total stand C stocks: 100 % and 15 % more than pure oak and pine stands respectively, and are here suggested as a feasible and effective mitigation option. Climate change induced a net C loss compared to control scenarios, when reduction in tree growth is taken into account. Mixed stands showed the lowest reduction in forest C stocks due to climate change, indicating that mixed stands are also a valid adaptation strategy. Thus converting from pure to mixed forests would enhance C sequestration under both current and future climate conditions.