Beyond the black box: Forest sector vulnerability assessments and adaptation to climate change in North America

In the wake of the failures to date of well-publicized multilateral and multi-sectoral mitigation efforts to control greenhouse gases, attention is now increasingly focused on the effectiveness and capacity of national and sub-national level sectoral plans, including forestry, to usher in a new era of adaptation efforts. In Canada, the government of British Columbia spent several years developing its Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative as part of a larger climate change response strategy in the forest sector. Similarly, in the United States, wildfire related events have led to climate change inspired efforts by individual states (e.g., Alaska, California) and the US Forest Service has recently undertaken plans to incorporate climate change considerations in national forest planning beginning with the National Road Map for Responding to Climate Change. This paper highlights a number of shortcomings with both these national and sub-national strategies with respect to the relationships existing between governance, forestry and climate change. It proposes incorporating considerations of governance mechanisms directly into forest sector planning and the need to assess not only natural system level changes but also the extent to which new problems can be dealt with by ‘old’ or ‘new’ governance arrangements.     

Mountain communities and climate change adaptation: barriers to planning and hurdles to implementation in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region of North America

Geographic factors make mountain communities around the world vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, and reliance on recreation and tourism can increase vulnerability to the secondary economic impacts.The goal of this research was to investigate the current state of community adaptation planning in the Southern Rocky Mountain region of North America. Using original survey data this paper discusses the challenges that community and county officials currently face, the perceived effects of future climate change in this region, and the perceived barriers to adaptation planning and hurdles to adaptation implementation. Results show lack of resources, information and political will are the most commonly reported barriers to adaptation. This paper also examines the connectivity between mountain communities and the surrounding federal public lands. Fifty one percent of respondents report that decisions made on nearby public lands frequently or always affect planning and decision making in their community. Collaborative efforts between these entities are proposed as a way to reduce the resource burden of adaptation planning for both entities. Finally, this paper discusses how attitudes and beliefs about climate change affect responses to questions about adaptation planning. On average, respondents who report higher levels of concern about and belief in climate change and those who are better informed about climate change report higher levels of adaptation planning. Elected officials in this sample have, on average, lower concern about and belief in climate change than bureaucratic respondents. Thus changes in elected official composition or improved leadership on climate change planning by incumbent officials could facilitate progress on adaptation     

Effect of potential HONO sources on peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formation in eastern China in winter

As an important secondary photochemical pollutant, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) has been studied over decades, yet its simulations usually underestimate the corresponding observations, especially in polluted areas. Recent observations in north China found unusually high concentrations of PAN during wintertime heavy haze events, but the current model still cannot reproduce the observations, and researchers speculated that nitrous acid (HONO) played a key role in PAN formation. For the first time we systematically assessed the impact of potential HONO sources on PAN formation mechanisms in eastern China using the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model in February of 2017. The results showed that the potential HONO sources significantly improved the PAN simulations, remarkably accelerated the RO_x (sum of hydroxyl, hydroperoxyl, and organic peroxy radicals) cycles, and resulted in 80%–150% enhancements of PAN near the ground in the coastal areas of eastern China and 10%–50% enhancements in the areas around 35–40°N within 3 km during a heavy haze period. The direct precursors of PAN were aldehyde and methylglyoxal, and the primary precursors of PAN were alkenes with C > 3, xylenes, propene and toluene. The above results suggest that the potential HONO sources should be considered in regional and global chemical transport models when conducting PAN studies.     

湖南慈利马尾松树轮宽度对气候的响应及1854年以来冬季极端低温重建

利用采自湖南慈利的马尾松树轮样本,建立研究区的标准树轮宽度年表。树轮气候响应分析发现:马尾松径向生长与月最大日降水量在生长季之前部分月份显著负相关(p0.05),在生长季之内部分月份显著正相关(p0.05),与月平均温度、月平均最低温度、月极端最低温度在生长季之前和之内大多月份均显著正相关(p0.05),其中与上一年11月到当年2月(冬季)的平均极端最低温度相关最好(r=0.62,p0.01)。重建了湖南慈利地区1854年以来冬季极端最低温度,重建气温在十年尺度上表现出明显的反"S"型,1854—1916年和1981—2015年处于暖冬时期,1917—1980年处于寒冬时期。此外,共发现29个寒冬年,其中包括3个寒冬时段,分别为1922—1925年、1927—1930年和1953—1960年,其中1953—1960年是自1854年以来最冷的时段。空间相关性分析表明重建序列可以指示我国中东部的冬季低温变化,而冬季低温可能与热带印度洋、西太平洋海温变化异常有关。     

温度对底栖端足类河蜾蠃蜚(Corophium acherusicum)存活、生长和发育的影响

河蜾赢蜚(Corophium acherusicum)生长发育的适温范围为15～25℃,最适温度为20℃.在适宜范围内实验室恒温培养的河蜾赢蜚生长优于自然环境.本文较细致的记录了河蜾赢蜚的发育状况,在适宜范嗣内河蜾赢蜚幼体的发育随温度的提高而加快.研究结果表明,河蜾赢蜚实验室培养温度宜选择在15～25℃,用其进行沉积物毒性生物检测的实验温度宜选择在20℃.     

Source emissions and climate change impacts on the multimedia transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants, Chaohu watershed, eastern China

Emission intensity and climate change control the transport flux and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in multiple environmental compartments. This study applied a multimedia model (BETR model) to explore alternations in the spatio-temporal trends of concentrations and transport flux of benzopyrene (BaP), phenanthrene (Phe), perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Chaohu watershed, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China in response to changes in source emissions and climate. The potential historic and future risks of these pollutants also were assessed. The results suggest that current trends in concentrations and transport were similar to that of their emissions between 2005 and 2018. During the next 100 years, temporal trends and spatial patterns were not predicted to change significantly, which is consistent with climate change. Based on sensitivity and correlation analyses, climate change had significant effects on multi-media concentrations and transport fluxes of BaP, Phe, PFOS and PCBs, and rainfall intensity was the predominant controlling factor. Risk quotients (RQs) of BaP and Phe-in soil increased from 0.42 to 0.95 and 0.06 to 0.35, respectively, from 2005 to 2090, indicating potential risks. The RQs of the other examined contaminants exhibited little potential risk in soil, water, or sediment. Based on spatial patterns, it was inferred that the ecosystem around Lake Chaohu is the most at risk. The study provides insights needed for local pollution control of POPs in the Chaohu watershed. In addition, the developed approach can be applied to other watersheds world-wide.     

Impacts of climate change on wheat development and production in the northern China

In this paper, impacts of climate change on wheat development rate and production in the northern China are discussed. The results show that the temperature is a controlling factor of development rate but the precipitation is not. The higher the temperature is. the faster the development and the shorter development period will be. Without consideration to varieties and cropping system, meteorological yield of winter wheat would decrease 170.40, 134.25, 98.70 and 97.20 kg/hm2 in the north China and 13.97, 7.95, 39.60 and 19.80 kg/hm2 in the northwest China compared with that in 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, respectively, when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled. In drought and semi-drought regions, the spring wheat yield would drop with the temperature rise in and raise with the precipitation increase. The influence of temperature on weight of leaf and stalk is also remarkable.     

Microhydro electrification and climate change adaptation in Nepal: socioeconomic lessons from the Rural Energy Development Program (REDP)

This article explores the potential for microhydro installations in Nepal to improve adaptive capacity in addition to their ability to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. After explaining its methods of data collection—namely field research and research interviews—the article explores the climate change adaptation benefits of microhydro plants being promoted under the Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP). Besides displacing fossil fuels, in particular kerosene for lighting, microhydro electrification offers an effective way of improving community assets and bolstering social resilience (thereby enhancing the adaptive capacity of communities there). Our own survey of REDP project sites reveals how microhydro units have improved community income levels, equalized gender roles, enhanced access to education and information, and reduced migration patterns. The article concludes by highlighting three key lessons—the role of extensive community mobilization, proactive capacity building for efficient electricity use, and the need for comprehensiveness—for those wishing to adapt to climate change in other rural and developing economies.     

南京城市下垫面变化对夏季臭氧浓度的影响研究

利用南京基准地面气象站1951~2010年的气象数据分析南京气象要素的长期变化,利用2007年南京草场门大气污染物监测数据探讨O3同气象要素之间关系并分析气象要素改变对污染的可能影响,结合WRF-CALGRID模式基于2008年7月的情景模拟研究1990年代以后南京城市下垫面变化对气象要素变化的贡献,并分析其对O3浓度的影响.结果显示,南京气温呈现增长趋势,平均风速、大气湿度、日照时数呈现降低趋势.气温与O3浓度呈一定的正相关关系、较小的风速和相对湿度有利于O3的生成.城市下垫面的增加使得南京城区气温增高超过1℃、风速减小0.4m/s、湿度下降0.5g/kg、混合层高度增加100m.气象要素的改变使地面NOx浓度减小,最大减小量超过6×10-9.对O3浓度的影响有增有减,南京市北部、西部增加,增加量超过2×10-9,主要受温度增加、风速减小以及NO的垂直输送影响;主城区的南部、东部O3浓度减小,减少量1×10-9~3×10-9,主要受混合层高度增加的影响.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Impacts of climate change on development rate and production of corn in the northeastern China

In this paper, the impacts of climate change on development rate and production of corn in the northeastern China are discussed. The results show that the higher the temperature is, the faster the development rate will be. And the more the precipitation is, the slower the development rate will be. Of which, air temperature is the controlling factor of corn development rate. The influences of development rate on corn yield are remarkable. The impacts of development rate on production in first and last periods are great, and small in the middle two periods. The development rate is positive by relate with corn production from sowing to emergence stage and negative during other periods. So, it is very important to arrange a suitable sowing time for com cultivating in the northeastern China.     

四川西部黄土沉积与环境演变研究综述

四川西部(川西)地处青藏高原东部,黄土广泛分布于河谷和断陷盆地中.该地区黄土的主体属风成堆积,为附近及高原内部地区的冰川沉积、寒冻风化物、河湖沉积、风沙沉积和坡积物等多种沉积物中的细粒物质,在西风、高原冬季风和近地面风的搬运下堆积而成.局部有受坡面流水作用形成的次生黄土.最早的黄土堆积始于早更新世(1150ka),现主...     

Assessing high impacts of climate change: spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ecosystem services in northern Japan (Teshio River watershed)

Ecosystem services (ESs) provide information on the tendency of ecosystems to reach and form a state of equilibrium. The process of ES changes is important in order to identify the climate change-related causes that occur regionally to globally. ES-based management plays an important role in mitigation strategies for the negative impact of global climate change on ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate spatial characteristics and relationships among these multiple services from different spatial scales which could aid in multiple ES sustainable development from local to global scales. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics and interactive relationships of multiple ESs. We analyzed the spatial distributions of six hydrological ESs that are important in the northernmost part of Japan (Teshio River watershed) by using hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) under baseline climate conditions and climate change derived from the global circulation model (GCM). We then explored the spatial characteristic scales of ESs by multiscale analysis (lacunarity estimation) to reveal provision flow and spatial distribution characteristics for hydrological ESs. We observed a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of land uses and ES provision. The spatial characteristics of individual hydrological ESs were totally different and had different spatial homogeneity and cluster (indicated by initial lacunarity index and lacunarity dimension). The results also showed trade-offs between inorganic nutrient retention (provision ESs) and organic nutrient and sediment retentions (regulating ESs), and synergies between organic nutrient retention and sediment retention under all climate change scenarios. The different stakeholders will take different mitigation programs (e.g., establishing riparian vegetation, planning nutrient management practices, and integrating climate change model into systematic conservation planning of ESs) to avoid negative impacts of climate change on ESs. Application of this proposed framework to study the spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ESs under climate change could provide understanding on the impact of climate change on ES changes and solutions to mitigate strategies to cope with those changes in the future.     

Strengthening the link between climate change adaptation and national development plans: lessons from the case of population in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)

As climate change adaptation planning moves beyond short term National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) to longer-term approaches, it is instructive to review the NAPA process and examine how well it was linked to national development planning. This paper reviews 41 NAPAs submitted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to assess the NAPA process in terms of NAPAs integration with countries’ national development strategies. The review outlines the actors involved in developing NAPAs and identifies the range of interventions included in countries’ priority adaptation actions. The paper uses the example of population as an issue related to both climate change and national development to assess how it is addressed as part of LDCs’ adaptation and national development agendas. The analysis shows that although countries recognize population pressure as an issue related to the ability to cope with climate change and as a factor hindering progress in meeting development goals, it is not well incorporated into either adaptation planning or in national development strategies. Among the 41 NAPAs, 37 link high and rapid population growth to climate change. Moreover, six NAPAs clearly state that slowing population growth or investments in reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) should be considered among the country’s priority adaptation actions. Furthermore, two NAPAs actually propose a project with components of RH/FP among their priority adaptation interventions, although none of them has yet been funded. The paper points to structural issues that hamper better alignment between climate change adaptation and national development planning and offers recommendations for longer-term adaptation strategies that better meet the development needs of countries.     

Impacts of land use,restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400–3000 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440–1200 Mg CO₂?ha^?1, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO₂ over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021–2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039–0.056 °C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28–3.29 % compared with the 1991–2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021–2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53–9.67 % relative to 1991–2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model’s projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.     

基于土地利用和气候变化的北方农牧交错带界线变迁

基于1961~2005 年中国北方9 省、自治区的218 个气象站点的气象资料及1986 年和2000 年的土地利用数据,从全球气候变化和土地利用变化角度分别界定了北方农牧交错带的地理位置,并分析了其界线变迁特征.结果表明,北方农牧交错带的地理位置还存在一定争议.交错带整体上已向西北移动.西北界已向北深入到纯牧区,东南界附近也由农牧交错区转成纯农区.气候界线向东南变迁,土地利用界线向西北变迁,两者变迁方向相反.东北段和华北段的界线变迁幅度远大于西北段.     

辽东半岛东岸泥质区有机物分布特征及其环境指示意义

为研究人类活动及鸭绿江陆源输入对河口海岸及陆架泥质区沉积环境的影响,本文通过对2017年于辽东半岛泥质区东部采集的Q02柱与西部Q04柱进行210Pb定年、粒度、总有机碳、总有机氮、δ13C同位素等指标综合分析,利用Meyers研究模型结合C/N值及δ13C同位素含量分析不同物源有机质贡献率。结果表明:（1）两根柱样TOC与TN含量近百年来逐渐升高,C/N值在9~11之间为海陆混合来源。沉积物主要以粉砂及粘土为主,粉砂含量最高,粘土次之,砂含量较少。（2）有机碳来源占比均呈陆源降低海源升高的特点,分别反映了泥质区东部与西部不同主导因素对海域环境的影响。东部沉积环境主要受流域环境变化与海域共同作用,垦荒、自然灾害、日俄战争等事件造成了植被覆盖降低,水库建设减少了陆源有机碳输入;西部沉积环境主要受沿岸人类活动、水体富营养化的影响,"弛禁"政策导致植被覆盖被破坏,港口修建、水产养殖等活动造成水体营养物质增多,引起海洋环境恶化。     

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid(TSS) and nutrient(nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover(LULC)change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama,USA. Four Global Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios(SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change(2016–2040). Three projected LULC maps(2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen(TN) and Total Phosphorous(TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease,mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay.