未来黑碳气溶胶排放对区域气候变化的影响模拟

黑碳气溶胶是大气气溶胶的重要组分,其对从可见光到红外波段范围内的太阳辐射都具有强烈的吸收作用,对区域气候有较大影响。利用区域气候模式RegCM3,加入自主编制的黑碳排放清单,以2013年为基准年,模拟研究了2030年基准排放情景(BB)、政策排放情景(EE)、政策能源排放情景(EB)和政策控制排放情景(BE)下排放的黑碳气溶胶对大气层顶太阳辐射量的影响,分析不同情景下黑碳气溶胶排放引起的气候效应。结果表明:4种情景黑碳排放量排序为BB>EB>BE>EE;BB下2030年全国的气温及降水量分布与2013年基本一致,变化不明显;EB和BE二者排放量基本一致,但是减排侧重点不同,引起的气候效应稍有差异,但差别不大;而EE下减排力度达到最大,排放量减至98万t,其引起的气温和降水量的变化相比于其他3种情景较为明显,在黑碳减排的同时,升温效应减少,降温效应突出。对比BE和EB下的排放量发现,工业部门在BE下的减排量较大,民用部门在EB下的减排量较大,表明排放控制措施在工业部门可以发挥较大的作用,民用部门的减排中能源结构调整措施较为重要。     

Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.     

Estimation of climate change influence on the sensitivity of trees in Europe to air pollution concentrations

This paper describes the results of combining several simple models to assess the changes in plant sensitivity to direct effects of gaseous air pollutants that result from changes in climatic conditions. This research has been carried out within the framework of a project on the integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (AIR-CLIM). The modulation of plant sensitivity to gaseous pollutants has been studied using a model of stomatal conductance that simulates the flow of water vapor from the atmosphere to the plant interior through the stomata. The model has been applied to Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The critical atmospheric concentration levels for SO₂ and NO_x adopted in international environmental norms have been modified to maintain in different climate scenarios a concentration level inside the plant equivalent to the critical limit in 1990. These simulated critical concentrations are compared with the predicted atmospheric concentrations. Our work indicates that the response can be very different for the two types of forests and in different regions. In general, climate change sensitivity increases in boreal areas and decreases in temperate areas due to temperature and water stress. If the air pollution levels are in the predicted ranges, the problems are less severe now than in 1990, but the cumulative stress will still be significant.     

Building regional priorities in forests for development and adaptation to climate change in the Congo Basin

Indentifying common priorities in shared natural resource systems constitutes an important platform for implementing adaptation and a major step in sharing a common responsibility in addressing climate change. Predominated by discourses on REDD + (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) with little emphasis on adaptation there is a risk of lack of policy measures in addressing climate change in the Congo Basin. Forest products and ecosystem services provide security portfolios for the predominantly rural communities, and play major roles in national development programmes in both revenue and employment opportunities. Thus, raising the profile of forests in the policy arena especially in the twin roles of addressing climate change in mitigation and adaptation and achieving resilient development is crucial. Within the framework of the Congo Basin Forests and Climate Change Adaptation project (COFCCA) project, science policy dialogue was conducted to identify and prioritize forest based sectors vulnerable to climate change but important to household livelihoods and national development. The goal of the prioritization process was for the development of intervention in forest as measures for climate change adaptation in Central Africa. Participants constituted a wide range of stakeholders (government, Non Governmental Organizations, research institutions, universities, community leaders, private sectors etc.) as representatives from three countries directly involved in the project: Cameroon, Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo. Building on national priorities, four forest related sectors were identified as common priorities at the regional level for focus on climate change adaptation. These sectors included: (1) energy with emphasis on fuel wood and Charcoal; (2) Water principally quality, quantity, accessibility, etc.; (3) Food with emphasis on Non Timber Forest Products, and (4) Health linked to healthcare products (medicinal plants). Using these prioritized sectors, the project focused on addressing the impacts of climate change on local communities and the development of adaptation strategies in the three pilot countries of the Congo Basin region. The four sectors constitute the key for development in the region and equally considered as priority sectors in the poverty reduction papers. Focused research on these sectors can help to inject the role of forests in national and local development and their potentials contributions to climate change adaptation in national and public discourses. Mainstreaming forest for climate change adaptation into national development planning is the key to improve policy coherence and effectiveness in forest management in the region.     

兴隆山自然保护区优势植物的物候格局对气候变化的响应

甘肃兴隆山自然保护区地处青藏高原、黄土高原、蒙新高原交汇地带,区域内的植物物候变化对探索气候变化对该地区的生态影响有重要意义。本文对1951—2014年的气象数据进行了分析,结果表明:60年来,兴隆山地区的日均温呈逐年上升趋势,累积增温0.92℃,年降水量逐年下降,平均减少率为83.09 mm?(10a)~(-1)。通过对比2004—2007年和2012—2015年间两时间段内的鲜黄小檗(Berberis diaphana)等14种植物物种的开花等8种物候现象的发生时间发现,有42.86%的观测物种的物候存在显著差异,其中华北珍珠梅(Sorbaria kirilowii)、鲜黄小檗最为显著。鲜黄小檗物候期都呈推迟趋势。华北珍珠梅的春季物候期推迟,秋季物候期提前,其生长季减少率为15.49 d?a~(-1)。在保护区的植被管理实践中,应特别加强对华北珍珠梅的保育。     

Adapting bridge infrastructure to climate change: institutionalizing resilience in intergovernmental transportation planning processes in the Northeastern USA

Multi-level governance networks provide both opportunities and challenges to mainstream climate change adaptation due to their routine decision-making and coordination processes. This paper explores institutionalizing resilience and adaptation to climate change in the intergovernmental transportation planning processes that address bridge infrastructure in the Northeastern United States (USA), specifically in Vermont and Maine. The research presented here relies on nine interviews with policy-makers and planners, a survey of transportation project prioritization criteria, development of a longitudinal bridge funding database, and its integration with publicly available geospatial data. It presents a novel spatial analysis methodology, a modified version of which could be adopted by transportation agencies for prioritizing scarce adaptation funds. Although transportation agencies are undertaking a variety of mitigation activities to address business-as-usual needs, climate change adaptation and resilience efforts remain underprioritized. Adaptation is a global concern, but impacts vary dramatically between regions and require localized solutions. Bridges and culverts, which are especially vulnerable to climate-induced flooding impacts, have complex maintenance and design processes and are subject to convoluted adaptation planning procedures. Critical gaps in resources and knowledge are barriers to improved adaptation planning. Restructuring the transportation project prioritization procedures used by planning organizations to explicitly include adaptation may provide a novel strategy to institutionalize resilience in transportation. These procedures must be considered in the context of the intergovernmental networks that exist to support transportation infrastructure. Although these networks will likely vary across countries, the approaches introduced here to study and address transportation infrastructure adaptation may be applied to many settings.     

Characteristics of regional climate change and pattern analysis on Ordos Plateau

The characteristics of precipitation, temperature and their combination determine the special ecological environment pattern of Ordos Plateau. Analyzing its evolutionary trend attributes to understanding the succession process of the ecological environment of Ordos Plateau and has crucial instructional significance on the ecological restoration research being conducted in this region. Four time scales, arranging from ten days, one month, one season (growing season contrasting to non-growing season)to one year were adopted to analyze the climate data which included nearly 30 years and were collected by eight weather stations on Ordos Plateau. The results indicated that the mean annual temperature and the mean monthly temperature of February, September and December, had increased significantly during the late 30 years. The annual precipitation did not show significant changes but its distribution pattern had changed obviously. The ratio of precipitation of major growing season (May-October)to annual precipitation had increased distinctively, and five counties‘ precipitation reached statistically significant level.And the ratio of precipitation of latter growing season (September)to one year decreased significantly while the ratio of non-growing season (November-next April)to one year changed insignificantly. The results showed that maybe the interaction of increased mean temperature and insignificant change of precipitation in non-growing season was one of the reasons why the desertifieation of the region was deteriorating in recent years. Using some factors closely relating to vegetation succession such as mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, distributive pattern of precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest month,mean temperature of growing season, precipitation of growing season, potential evapotranspiration(PET) and radiative dryness index( RD1), to synthetically analyze the climate characteristics of Ordos Plateau. The regionalized Ordos Plateau to three synthetical climate types were recognized as follows: Type 1, semi-humid and low evaporation(including Jungar Banner, Dongsheng City and Ejin Horo Banner), Type 11,semi-arid, semi-humid and moderate evaporation(including Uxin Banner and Dalad Banner), Type 111, arid and high evaporation(including Hanggin Banner,Otag Banner and Otog Qian Banner).     

Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies. The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered.     

regionalclimate Characteristics of regional climate change and pattern analysis on Ordos Plateau

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Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study

Development and evaluation of mitigation strategies are fundamental to manage climate change risks. This study was built on (1) quantifying the response of maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield to potential impacts of climate change and (2) investigating the effectiveness of changing sowing date of maize as a mitigation option for Khorasan Province which is located in northeast of Iran. Two types of General Circulation Models (GCM: (United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Center :HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) at four locations (Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar) employed in this study. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed for generating the future climate. The Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize was used for crop growth simulation under projected climate conditions. The results showed the simulated grain yields of maize gradually would decrease (from −1% to −39%) during future 100 years compared to baseline under different scenarios and two GCM at all study locations. The simulation results suggested that delayed sowing date from May to June at all study locations, except Sabzevar location is the most effective mitigation option for avoiding thermal stress at end of growth period. In addition, shifting in sowing date to March or April will be beneficial in terms of obtaining higher yields in Sabzevar. Grain yield did not show special trend from north to south of Khorasan Province in the future climate. In general, change of sowing date may be quite beneficial to mitigate climate change impacts on grain yield of maize in northeast of Iran.     

气候变化情景下地表O3对水稻产量的潜在风险评估

利用2013~2015年水稻生长季期间气象因子、O₃浓度和气孔导度的实测数据,分析了O₃浓度与AOT40的变化,引入并修订了水稻气孔导度模型,模拟了水稻气孔O₃吸收通量的动态变化,评估了当前和未来气候变化情景下O₃污染所造成的水稻产量损失.结果表明：2013~2015年水稻生长季期间的白天时段,平均O₃浓度分别为35.8,42.0,47.9nL/L,AOT40值分别为5.33,9.03,11.25μL/（L·h）.修订后的模型可用于本地区水稻气孔导度的模拟,2013~2015年水稻气孔O₃通量AF_st02分别为2.02,6.42,7.79mmol/m².2013~2015年地表O₃造成水稻平均相对产量损失分别为4.9%、11.7%和14.3%.在未来气候变化情景下若不考虑O₃浓度的变化,O₃对水稻的胁迫效应将会降低,若考虑未来O₃浓度的变化,O₃造成水稻产量的损失将增加4.7~5.7%.     

东北多年冻土区植被NDVI变化及其对气候变化和土地覆被变化的响应

利用1982~2006年的NOAA AVHRR-GIMMS和MODIS 2种数据集的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据对东北多年冻土区植被NDVI年际动态和空间差异进行分析,并结合气象数据和土地利用/覆被数据分析了植被NDVI对气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化的响应.研究表明,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI值较高,且空间差异明显;森林为该区主要植被类型,NDVI值较高,主要分布于大小兴安岭和伊春地区;草地集中分布于西南部, NDVI值相对较低.东北多年冻土区过去25a间植被生长的变化趋势为:伴随着气温的显著升高和降水量减少,植被NDVI显著下降.较气温而言,降水量是影响植被NDVI的主要因子(r = 0.77, P < 0.01).在气候变化和人类活动的双重作用下,东北多年冻土区植被NDVI在1982~2006年间表现为4个阶段:1982~1990年,植被NDVI虽有小幅波动,但整体上呈持续增加的趋势;1990~1993年,植被NDVI呈迅速下降趋势; 1993~1997年,植被NDVI呈现回升态势,表现出缓慢上升的趋势;1998~2006年,植被NDVI呈现总体下降趋势.不同植被类型表现出不同的NDVI年际变化规律,尤以草地NDVI值波动最大.植被NDVI变化空间异质性显著.气候变化和多年冻土退化影响了东北多年冻土区植被NDVI动态.年均气温升高和年降水量降低影响了植被的生长.从像元尺度来看,研究区植被NDVI与气温和降水均具有较显著的相关性.研究区土地利用/覆被变化的分析结果表明,不同的土地利用类型间的转变对植被NDVI的大小和空间分布产生了重要影响.     

A discussion of the potential impacts of climate change on the shorelines of the Northeastern USA

An increase in the rate of sea-level rise and potential changes in storminess represent important components of global climate change that will likely affect the extensive coasts of the Northeastern USA. Raising sea level not only increases the likelihood of coastal flooding, but changes the template for waves and tides to sculpt the coast, which can lead to land loss orders of magnitude greater than that from direct inundation alone. There is little question that sea-level rise, and in particular an increased rate of rise, will result in permanent losses of coastal land. However, quantitative predictions of these future coastal change remains difficult due in part to the complexity of coastal systems and the influence of infrequent storm events, and is further confounded by coastal science’s insufficient understanding of the behavior of coastal systems over decadal timescales. Recently, dramatic improvements in technology have greatly improved our capabilities to investigate and characterize processes and sedimentary deposits in the coastal zone, allowing us, for the first time, to address some of the over-arching problems involved in shoreline change. Despite advances in many areas of coastal geology, our fundamental understanding of shoreline change has been limited by a lack of a broad and integrated scientific focus, a lack of resources, and a lack of willingness on the part of policymakers who make crucial decisions about human activity along the coast to support basic research in this area. Although quantitative predictions remain constrained, there remains little doubt that the predicted climates changes will have profound effects upon the Northeastern coast.     

A new tool to map the major worldviews in the Netherlands and USA,and explore how they relate to climate change

For addressing climate change, public support for changes in policy is needed, as well changes in individual lifestyles. Both of these appear to be intimately related with people’s worldviews. Understanding these worldviews is therefore essential. In order to research and ‘map’ them, we translated the theoretical ‘Integrative Worldview Framework’ (IWF) into an empirical, quantitative approach. We constructed a worldview-scale aiming to distinguish between four major worldviews – labeled traditional, modern, postmodern, and integrative – and explored their interface with opinions and behaviors with respect to climate change. The survey was conducted with representative samples of citizens in the Netherlands and the USA (n = 527 and n = 556). The hypothesized worldviews were found in the data with a reasonable degree of reliability, especially in the Dutch sample. We also found consistent relationships between these worldview-clusters and a range of opinions, political priorities, and behaviors. In both countries postmoderns and integratives displayed significantly more concern about climate change as well as more sustainable behaviors, compared with moderns and traditionals. The implications of these findings for environmental policy and social science are noteworthy.     

典型行业黑碳气溶胶排放对区域气候的影响模拟

黑碳气溶胶是大气气溶胶的重要组成成分,其对太阳短波辐射和红外辐射均有强烈的吸收作用,对区域气候有较大影响。利用区域气候模式RegCM3,加入自主编制的黑碳排放清单,模拟研究了2013年工业、交通、民用3个典型行业黑碳气溶胶地表吸收太阳辐射量的变化,分析不同行业黑碳气溶胶排放的气候效应。结果表明:黑碳气溶胶主要分布在华北、中原、长三角、珠三角和成渝地区,其中又以山东省和河北省的排放量最大,呈现明显的季节变化,即冬春季高于夏季;3个典型行业排放量排序表现为民用源>工业源>交通源;黑碳气溶胶使地表吸收太阳辐射量增大,引起的气候效应表现在使华北、中原、长三角等地区气温升高,川渝、珠三角地区气温降低;但引起的降水量变化不大,可能与该模式对降水量的模拟效果较差有关。     

Integrated regional modelling and scenario development to evaluate future water demand under global change conditions

Within climate change impact research, the consideration of socioeconomic processes remains a challenge. Socioeconomic systems must be equipped to react and adapt to global change. However, any reasonable development or assessment of sustainable adaptation strategies requires a comprehensive consideration of human-environment interactions. This requirement can be met through multi-agent simulation, as demonstrated in the interdisciplinary project GLOWA-Danube (GLObal change of the WAter Cycle; ). GLOWA-Danube has developed an integrated decision support tool for water and land use management in the Upper Danube catchment (parts of Germany and Austria, 77,000 km²). The scientific disciplines invoked in the project have implemented sixteen natural and social science models, which are embedded in the simulation framework DANUBIA. Within DANUBIA, a multi-agent simulation approach is used to represent relevant socioeconomic processes. The structure and results of three of these multi-agent models, WaterSupply, Household and Tourism, are presented in this paper. A main focus of the paper is on the development of global change scenarios (climate and society) and their application to the presented models. The results of different simulation runs demonstrate the potential of multi-agent models to represent feedbacks between different water users and the environment. Moreover, the interactive usage of the framework allows to define and vary scenario assumptions so as to assess the impact of potential interventions. It is shown that integrated modelling and scenario design not only provide valuable information, but also offer a platform for discussing complex human-environment-interactions with stakeholders.     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

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