跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立

针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准。采用AHP(层次分析法)-综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法。     

Investigation on the role of traffic volume in accidents on urban highways

Introduction

Roadway safety is a major concern for the general public and public agencies, as roadway crashes claim many lives and cause substantial economic loss each year. In Iran, a large number of vehicles are involved in road accidents each year, which cause many deaths and extensive property damage; such accidents are among the major causes of death and disability in the country. Method: To reduce roadway accidents, the factors that affect the occurrence and severity of accidents should be scrutinized to prevent or reduce their effect. The method that many researchers have adopted to determine the effective parameters surrounding road accidents in recent years is through statistical modeling of accidents. In this article, the role of different kinds of vehicles in traffic flow are investigated separately in terms of the likelihood of crashes on urban highways, and the vehicles are divided into three groups: passenger cars, heavy vehicles, and light non-passenger car vehicles. Poisson and negative binomial (NB) regression models were applied to model the accidents in this research, which were categorized into two groups: no injury (property damage only) accidents and more severe (injury and fatal) accidents. Results: Ultimately, we conclude that light non-passenger car vehicles (i.e., taxis and motorcycles) play the largest role in the occurrence of crashes on urban highways for both types of accidents.     

灾害事故专业应急救援队伍能力评价指标体系研究*

为科学评价灾害事故专业应急救援队伍能力,基于相关行业领域应急救援队伍能力评价研究及制度标准分析,提取专业应急救援队伍能力构成要素,建立应急救援队伍能力评价指标体系及相应的评价方法。结果表明:指标体系可合理表征专业应急救援队伍能力,可为相关政府及企业开展灾害事故专业应急救援队伍能力评价提供参考。     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

Aftermath of the world''s worst chemical disaster: Bhopal, December 1984

Current practice in preventive environmental health action includes chemical analysis of land, water and air for known (controlled) toxic chemicals and comparison against standards for identification of breaches of regulatory limits. This methodology is also followed after an accident or disaster to ensure air, water and food safety. Some problems, not easily addressed by this methodology include: unidentified toxic chemicals; non-conventional uses of toxic materials, unexpected synergestic effects of toxic mixtures, and human health consequences of exposure to toxic materials with unusual and unidentified pathways of exposures. In Bhopal we were faced with a mixture of about 27 toxic substances, a variety of exposures related to activities of the persons, for example, remaining in their homes or running in the toxic cloud, and a variety of perceived injuries not all of which would have been predicted by analyzing the chemicals involved. In this paper we will present the advantages of combinations of approaches including examination of health, social and cultural environment and economic situation of the victims of the Bhopal disaster and their effect on health. This more broad analysis provides a clearer big picture of the problems in the aftermath of exposure, and also clues to effective treatment and alleviation of future problems. We will present two effective strategies for connecting health problems ten years after exposure to the original disaster, and understanding the biochemical reactions in the body when invaded by a mixture of toxic substances and how such an understanding will in turn affect public policy planning, emergency preparedness and emergency medicine.     

城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案的研究

通过分析城市危险化学品的基本情况和典型事故引发的严重后果,借鉴、总结城市危险化学品应急救援演练和事故现场应急救援的实践经验,参考城市危险化学品潜在危险性评估的结果,笔者提出危险化学品事故的类别及其3种紧急情况的应对方法;阐述了制定危险化学品事故应急救援预案的目的、依据、指导思想和原则;指出城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案应包括的主要内容和构成要素,即应急救援的策划、应急响应机制、应急救援的机构与职责、任务与形式、应急响应程序、预案管理与评审改进等;提供了制定城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案的方法。     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

基于突变理论的非常规突发事件下个体行为状态研究

针对非常规突发事件下个体行为状态,考虑物质环境、社会环境和个体属性等因素,建立评价影响个体行为状态的3级指标体系;在分析非常规突发事件下个体行为状态突变特征的基础上,建立非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的尖点突变模型;采用突变级数法对4类非常规突发事件进行实例分析,得到4类突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度。实例表明,不同类型非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度不同;重大自然灾害和公共卫生类型突发事件中个体行为所受影响最大,社会安全事件次之,事故灾难突发事件中最小。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994–2013

Objective: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

Methods: Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000–2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law.

Results: A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = ?1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) ? 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < .001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating a good model fit.

Conclusions: We described a generally decreasing trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.     

Revising HFACS for SMEs in the chemical industry: HFACS-CSMEs

Chemical accidents have occurred frequently in recent years, and most have occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs in the chemical industry face greater challenges than large enterprises with regard to accident prevention. However, SMEs have been unable to effectively learn from accidents due to the limited resources. The accident causation model is an effective tool to help the analyst learn from accidents. As a systematic accident causation model, the causes classification in the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) can match the characteristics of SMEs, but the cause of chemical accidents can be ineffectively identified by HFACS. In this study, HFACS was revised for the SMEs in the chemical industry, mainly consisting of three parts. First, based on the definition of factors in the original HFACS, the extended HFACS framework was obtained, which include 78 manifestations with the characteristics of the chemical accidents. Second, 101 accidents occurring in a SME in the chemical industry from 2012 to 2016 were analyzed though the extended HFACS framework. Finally, a new model, known as the HFACS-CSMEs, was obtained by further revising the manifestations and causes classification according to the statistical results of the accident analysis. HFACS-CSMEs consists of 15 cause factors and 56 manifestations, which can effectually identify and distinguish the causes in chemical accidents. Moreover, the easy-to-understand and statistically acceptable features of HFACS-CSMEs can cater to the SMEs regarding accident analysis. HFACS-CSMEs solves the problem that HFACS cannot be directly applied to chemical accidents and provides new ideas about preventing accidents in SMEs in the chemical industry.     

一切建筑事故都是可以预防的

通过分析建筑事故的种类及其成因,以及建筑事故与自然现象和人为因素之间的关系,论证了建筑生产企业中的人因事故是可以预防的,而且通过预测预报、预警预防、应急救援、加固改造等手段,尤其是采取合理规划选址、避开地震发生区进行建设开发等有效、合理的技术措施,自然原因造成的环境类建筑事故如地震灾害等也是可以预防的。无论从建筑事故发生的原因角度出发,还是从建筑事故的性质特点角度出发,建筑事故适合用分析和拓扑理论进行研究,用因子分析法,结合指标分析和拓扑理论,可以得出一切建筑事故都是可以预防的结论。     

江苏沿海地区化工事故时空变化分析与对策研究

统计汇总了2006—2009年江苏沿海地区发生的化工事故,分析事故发生的时间趋势、空间分布、事故原因、死亡人数以及类型等特点。结果表明:事故发生频次稳定,增长趋势不明显。71%的事故发生于园区内,29%的事故发生在分散企业。连云港事故主要发生于沿海化工区密集带,盐城事故主要分布于沿海化工区域,少数发生在内陆地区,南通事故发生地点较为分散。总体来看,江苏沿海地区化工事故具有数量多,影响广,造成的环境经济损失较大的特点。     

基于事故树和模糊层次分析法的飞机火灾事故分析

为了解决飞机火灾事故易发问题、降低事故发生率,以巡航过程中客机发生火灾事故为情境,提出事故树分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的研究方法。绘制树形图研究人为、机械、环境和管理等方面导致飞机火灾事故发生的途径,构建飞机火灾事故指标体系,结构重要度对指标赋值得出权重值顺序,结果表明:安检和安全培训对飞机火灾事故发生影响最大,空气影响次之,机械故障影响最小。因此,最有效的飞机火灾事故预防途径应从可燃物控制方面着手。     

气象灾害的研究和预防是野外职业安全卫生的一个重要领域

从事野外地质勘探的职工常常处于大自然环境中。自然环境灾害(气象灾害、地质灾害等)是造成地质勘探职业伤害的重要原因之一。在诸多的环境灾害中,又以气象灾害的危害最为突出。研究和预防气象灾害,是地质勘探安全卫生工作的重要内容。如果只研究人为职业伤害(一般工业安全卫生中的主要问题),而不研究环境灾害,特别是气象灾害所造成的事故和职业病,那是舍本求末。在地质勘探安全卫生领域中,研究气象灾害及其防护技术,既是保护野外作业职工安全和健康的需要,也是拓宽安全科学外延领域的有益探讨。     

Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident

This article aims to demonstrate the need for changing the methods with which accidents are analyzed, if we truly wish to use what we uncover from them to learn and enrich our knowledge base of organizational management. The goal is to relinquish the broadly adopted and rather simplistic paradigm that accepts the search for human error and unsafe acts performed by workers, and produces “guilt diagnostics”. Instead, we use a systemic accident analysis methodology, based on the sociotechnical principle of understanding the real operating conditions in which accidents take place. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the theoretical framework, we compare the analyses of an Anhydrous Ammonia gas leakage accident in a fish processing plant using the traditional accident analysis model based on unsafe acts and the proposed systemic approach. The results favor the latter since it tends to be more reliable and offering useful recommendations to safety management processes, thus helping to prevent accidents, especially in complex systems.     

A rising tide raises all boats: Regional promotion of process safety through joint government/industry management

With the development of increasingly complex processes and technologies in chemical and manufacturing industries, Process Safety Management (PSM) has been globally recognized as the primary tool for operating companies to reduce process accidents on their industrial sites and the risks posed to their employees and surrounding communities. Yet, industrial facilities are often interdependent and collocated with others. Recognizing this, regional authorities are also applying PSM principles to reduce the cumulative incidents associated with high density industrial areas and the multiplicative risks posed to broader communities. This paper compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta, Contra Costa County Health Service Hazard Material Programs (CCCHSHMP) in California, and Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario and their PSM systems to provide practical recommendations to improve SCES's system. Four aspects of PSM are considered: regulation and guidance, auditing and inspection, annual performance indicators, and public participation. Based on the results of this comparison, we recommend that SCES develop comprehensive PSM regulations based on CSA Z767-17 PSM including clear instructions for assessing technologies and methodologies for consequence analysis. Both worst-case scenarios and alternative scenarios need to be considered as well as the domino effect of primary accidents. Furthermore, regular audits and inspections will ensure compliance with PSM regulations while helping the design of planning, performing, and following-up strategies to ensure effectiveness. In addition, we suggest the use of lagging and leading performance indicators to evaluate the performance of the PSM program. Finally, we recommend using advisory councils or commissions to increase public participation and ensure the representation of stakeholders' perspectives with the PSM system.     

基于数据挖掘的化工生产事故致因主题抽取

为充分挖掘化工生产事故数据中的有效信息和潜在规律,提高对化工事故认知水平,针对某化工集团2010—2016年共1 578起事故数据,利用社会网络分析等方法揭示事故要素间的关联关系;运用潜在狄利克雷分配（LDA）模型进行事故聚类,并抽取到5个事故致因主题。研究结果表明:LDA主题模型等数据挖掘技术能有效挖掘大量事故数据中的潜在信息;5个事故致因主题中,4个涉及到人因或组织层面的缺陷;员工注意力不集中和现场风险管理不足这2个致因主题间具有较强相关性;员工注意力不集中、现场风险管理不足以及设备问题是导致事故发生的主要原因。     

消防部队在应急救援中的安全管理研究

近年来,随着社会的不断发展进步,消防部队工作职能不断拓展,承担了越来越多的灾害事故应急救援工作。在这个不断发展的过程中,应急救援的安全问题不断凸显,暴露出了应急救援安全管理跟不上救援工作发展及更新速度这一突出问题。面对这一新形势、新任务及新要求,我们必须分析研究有针对性的安全管理对策,以科学发展、求真务实的管理态度来组织消防部队应急救援工作。本文从分析消防部队应急救援安全管理现状入手,提出并总结了一些预防事故发生以及建立健全管理制度的对策。