J-value analysis of different regulatory limits for workers and the public

The J-value technique allows an objective determination to be made of the resources that should be applied cost effectively to improve heath and safety. This is essential if capabilities are to be employed optimally and risks reduced in a way that reflects their severity. Although other considerations such as good practice and socio-political influences may affect a final decision on the resources to be sanctioned, the incorporation of these additional factors should be made transparent if the decision is no longer to be based on cost effectiveness. The J-value provides an objective criterion by which to judge when “reasonable practicability” has been achieved in committing resources for safety improvement, which is the legal requirement under health and safety law in the UK.Moreover, the J-value methodology also allows other related issues to be addressed objectively. Regulatory bodies apply different limits for workers and the general public, with higher risks being permitted for workers. Although a factor of about 10 has been used in several contexts, no objective rationale has been developed for this particular figure until now. However, it is shown that application of the J-value analysis can provide a justification for a ratio of workers’ risk to public risk of approximately this size if certain reasonable assumptions are made. Thus the paper provides the first quantitative explanation for the different levels of protection demanded by regulators nationally and internationally for workers and public.     

Age grading: The implicit organizational timetable

The age distribution within an organization forms an implicit career timetable, and there is evidence that people use their perceptions of this timetable to determine whether their careers are on or off schedule. Questionnaire data were collected from managers (N = 488, 47 per cent) within a large electric utility. The results indicate that managers who see themselves as ‘behind time’ in their careers have more negative attitudes towards work than other managers, even when their perceptions of being ‘behind time’ are inaccurate. However, although these managers continue to have the most negative attitudes, differences between the on and off schedule managers are smaller when their position on the actual career timetable is controlled. Thus, work attitudes are influenced by both individual and demographic factors. Finally, the longer managers remain in the same job, the more likely they are to define themselves as ‘behind time’. This supports other research suggesting that lateral moves within organizations may be an important device for managing the normal -limitations of upward movement in managerial careers.     

Global bike share: What the data tells us about road safety

IntroductionBike share has emerged as a rapidly growing mode of transport in over 800 cities globally, up from just a handful in the 1990s. Some analysts had forecast a rise in the number of bicycle crashes after the introduction of bike share, but empirical research on bike share safety is rare. The goal of this study is to examine the impact of bike share programs on cycling safety.MethodsThe paper has two substudies. Study 1 was a secondary analysis of longitudinal hospital injury data from the Graves et al. (2014) study. It compared cycling safety in cities that introduced bike share programs with cities that did not. Study 2 combined ridership data with crash data of selected North American and European cities to compare bike share users to other cyclists.ResultsStudy 1 indicated that the introduction of a bike share system was associated with a reduction in cycling injury risk. Study 2 found that bike share users were less likely than other cyclists to sustain fatal or severe injuries.ConclusionsOn a per kilometer basis, bike share is associated with decreased risk of both fatal and non-fatal bicycle crashes when compared to private bike riding.Practical ApplicationsThe results of this study suggest that concerns of decreased levels of cycling safety are unjustified and should not prevent decision makers from introducing public bike share schemes, especially if combined with other safety measures like traffic calming.     

Driving and alternatives: older drivers in Michigan

Method: A statewide telephone survey of Michigan drivers and former drivers aged 65 and older collected information on transportation mode choices, experience with alternatives to driving, and whether drivers planned for when they could no longer drive. Results: Results showed that most older adult households owned at least one automobile, and that the automobile was the primary mode of transportation. Most former drivers obtained rides from relatives and friends. Use of public transportation was low, and some seniors were not aware of available public transportation services. Older drivers did not plan for driving cessation. Over half the drivers who perceived a likelihood of driving problems within 5 years expected to keep driving beyond 5 years. Impact on industry: Because of their lifelong reliance on the automobile, their desire to drive themselves, and their lack of experience with public transportation, efforts to enhance the mobility of older people should consider this background while alternatives to the personal automobile are developed.     

基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究

风险的社会可接受性是风险管理的重要环节,文章从社会公众的角度出发,将风险可接受性看成一个社会事件,基于社会核心指标:人均国民生产总值GDP,人的寿命期望以及人们用来享受健康生活的时间,给出了生活质量指数的概念。利用该指数,结合净收益原则可以确定社会对于安全投入的支付意愿值,即,给出了一个定量的费用支出水平,超过该水平的安全投入就是不合理的。该方法可为评估风险减缓措施的有效性提供依据。     

Beliefs about ‘improvability’ of career‐relevant skills: relevance to job/task analysis,competency modelling,and learning orientation

Based on data obtained from three samples of participants from both a work organization and a college setting, this paper addressed two major research objectives relevant to organizational behavior and applied psychology. First, we wanted to explore the nature of implicit theory of skill malleability in more detail than has been done before. This was done by drawing on KSAO dimensions from the task/job analysis literature, and examining linkages among: (a) task/job analysis; (b) implicit theories; and (c) competency modelling (an area in which there has been little empirical research). The studies found multiple factors of beliefs about KSAO improvability and showed a clear ordering of improvability beliefs (from most to least improvable) that follow predictions made in the Iceberg model of competencies. The present studies also found relationships between perceptions of KSAO importance and KSAO improvability, as well as evidence that this relationship is stronger for people who have been in a role/job longer, having had greater opportunity to observe critical KSAOs improve over time. A second major objective of the research was to explore improvability beliefs within a nomological network that would help to further establish the construct validity of the beliefs within the learning/development area. Using structural modelling, the improvability beliefs were tied to learning‐oriented concepts including self‐efficacy for learning and development, tendency to compare oneself to others when learning, as well as learning‐oriented attitudes and behaviors. The potential practical value of improvability beliefs is discussed, as are suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional economic conditions and crash fatality rates--a cross-county analysis

INTRODUCTION: Most studies that evaluate the relationship between economic conditions and traffic fatalities focus on the time-series relationship between the two factors. This analysis considers the cross-sectional perspective by estimating the cross-county correlation between per capita income and fatalities per vehicle mile traveled (VMT) in Ohio. METHOD: The empirical model employed in this analysis allows for interaction effects between per capita income and highway usage, in the determination of fatality rates. RESULTS: The resultant least squares estimates indicate that a significant interaction effect exists between per capita income and the percentage of highway VMT, indicating a nonlinear correlation between per capita income and fatality rates. This correlation rises as the proportion of VMT on highways rises, such that there is an inverse relationship with fatality rates when the highway share of county VMT is low and a direct relationship with fatality rates when the highway share of county VMT is high. Additionally, population density, the presence of interstate highways in rural counties, the prior prevalence of severe alcohol abuse, and the proportion of teen drivers all proved to be significant correlates with county fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS: These observations suggest factors that state and federal policy makers should consider when allocating resources that impact (whether directly or indirectly) traffic fatalities.     

A data-driven allocation tool for in-kind resources distributed by a state health department

Objective: The objective of this study was to leverage a state health department's operational data to allocate in-kind resources (children's car seats) to counties, with the proposition that need-based allocation could ultimately improve public health outcomes.

Methods: This study used a retrospective analysis of administrative data on car seats distributed to counties statewide by the Georgia Department of Public Health and development of a need-based allocation tool (presented as interactive supplemental digital content, adaptable to other types of in-kind public health resources) that relies on current county-level injury and sociodemographic data.

Results: Car seat allocation using public health data and a need-based formula resulted in substantially different recommended allocations to individual counties compared to historic distribution.

Conclusions: Results indicate that making an in-kind public health resource like car seats universally available results in a less equitable distribution of that resource compared to deliberate allocation according to public health need. Public health agencies can use local data to allocate in-kind resources consistent with health objectives; that is, in a manner offering the greatest potential health impact. Future analysis can determine whether the change to a more equitable allocation of resources is also more efficient, resulting in measurably improved public health outcomes.     

Organization–environment adaptation: A macro‐level shift in modeling work distress and morale

We theorized that organization–environment adaptation, the interaction between external demands and personnel resources, predicts distress and morale. We tested this hypothesis in 29 stations within one state police department, and combined three data sources. We measured environmental demands for policing via census data pertaining to the station precinct (e.g., per cent unemployed; per cent in public housing). We assessed resources via personnel numbers within stations. Outcomes were employee's perceptions of staff distress and morale at the station (N = 247), assessed twice, 14 months apart. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we found that environmental demands predicted perceptions of workgroup distress and morale and that the relationships were moderated by personnel resources. For distress, when resources were low, demands were positively associated with distress; when resources were high, demands were negatively associated with distress. For morale, when resources were high, demands were positively associated with morale; there was no relationship when resources were low. Results show that aversive and pleasurable reactions at work may be traced to how resources are employed to manage external demands. Results support a macro‐level shift in modeling distress and morale, incorporating external demands, and strategic management decisions regarding personnel resourcing. Our research suggests that rather than being a result of individual failure to adapt, compromised work ability may result from an organizational failure to adapt to the environmental context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emergency resources demand prediction using case-based reasoning

The demand prediction on emergency resources is the premise and basis of optimal allocation of emergency resources. Nowadays, there are only few researches on this aspect in China and abroad. For this reason, the paper aims at the characteristics of emergency resource demand prediction and presents a method for emergency resource demand prediction using case-based reasoning (CBR), which is also a method based on risk analysis. This prediction method cannot only provide a basis for emergency resource reserve and allocation in future, but also provide a method and model support for the emergency resources allocation decision-making system to be constructed in future.     

Exploring the activation dimension of affect in organizations: A focus on trait‐level activation,climate‐level activation,and work‐related outcomes

This study explores the activation dimension of affect in organizations by focusing on both individual employees and their work climate. Drawing on affect research and demands‐abilities fit perspective, I have developed a model predicting that climate‐level activation would deplete employees' emotional resources and trait‐level action would function as an inner resource helping employees buffer themselves from their work demands. The results of a cross‐level study, conducted in a sample of 257 employees and their supervisors within 40 work units across 11 organizations, supported all but one of the hypotheses. Employees whose trait‐level activation was lower than the activation level of their work climate experienced higher levels of emotional exhaustion and thus were more likely to disengage from their work in forms of increased surface acting with their coworkers and psychological withdrawal, and reduced affective commitment to and intention to remain in their organization. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making sense of invulnerability at work—a qualitative study of police drivers

This paper reports a qualitative study of 54 police drivers who were interviewed about their views on police driver training, driving strategies and their accident involvement. Study of the transcribed interviews indicated that officers constructed narratives of themselves as being highly aware of hazards presented by other road users and they used a variety of discursive devices to minimise their own culpability and attribute risk elsewhere. Rather than maintaining a straightforward ‘illusion of invulnerability’ they were formulating a ‘topography of risk’ in which they were responding to hazards presented by suspects or other road users. Their meticulously detailed accounts of the circumstances surrounding accidents serve to place them as knowledgeable and impartial participants and create a sense of expertise and authority. Training initiatives could profitably seek to challenge this ‘topography of risk’ and sense of authority so that drivers more fully appreciate the hazard they may present to themselves and the public.     

面向智慧城市的公共安全治理模式研究

针对我国公共安全治理中存在的单一主体、横向协作困难、资源分割等现实问题,基于智慧治理理念,构建面向智慧城市的公共安全治理模式,提出融合、协同、可持续的构建原则,从资源层、组织层和运行层等三个层面构建公共安全智慧治理模式,实现对传统公共安全治理模式的系统性、整体性优化,并从机构设置、职能定位、组织结构、资源配置、运行机制等方面提出具体优化建议,为提升智慧城市公共安全治理效能提供思路。     

能见度降低条件下楼梯上行疏散实验研究

为探究地下公共建筑能见度降低场景中,个体及小群体楼梯上行疏散特征,在某公共建筑楼梯间进行个体疏散和小群体疏散实验,分析不同能见度条件下个体在梯段及平台上的疏散速度、疏散行为、小群体特征等关键参数。研究结果表明：梯段速度受能见度影响程度大于平台速度,在正常能见度条件下,小群体行为会对疏散移动速度产生负面影响,在低能见度条件下,小群体行为有助于提升疏散效率,表现在小群体平均速度高于群体中最慢个体速度且小群体和个体之间的速度差异较小。     

公路突发交通事件应急资源配置效率研究*

为合理有效配置公路突发事件下的应急资源,从资源投入与产出角度建立3级评价指标体系,在此基础上将应急资源投入与产出比作为目标函数,引入数据包络分析法构建应急资源配置效率模型,采用TOPSIS法对应急资源配置方案效率进行排序。以新疆10个公路局应急资源配置效率为例,分析其资源投入与产出的冗余度,并对有效决策单元进行排序。结果表明:该模型能获得应急资源配置冗余度,并对其进行资源配置效率分析,从而为公路局进行有效资源配置提供参考。     

电力应急资源优化调配技术及其在电力企业的应用*

为帮助电力企业实现快速有效的应急响应及应急资源的合理利用，解决应急资源“盲调”问题，对应急资源需求预测业务、应急资源调配业务进行深入分析；基于案例推理技术、模糊评价技术，依托网络地理信息系统，优化电力应急资源调配程序，研发电力应急资源调配系统并将其应用于电力企业。结果表明:该系统可在电力企业开展突发事件应急处置时提出科学、合理的应急资源调配方案并跟踪执行，为进一步提升电力企业应急处置效率、完善电力企业应急体系提供技术支撑。     

Self‐monitoring and performance appraisal: rating outcomes in project teams

Two studies examined the relationship between ratee self‐monitoring and performance appraisal in project teams using three appraisal sources: self, peer, and supervisor. Study 1, a laboratory study, found that high self‐monitoring (HSM) subjects produced self‐ratings significantly higher than their low self‐monitoring (LSM) counterparts. Further, higher agreement among sources occurred for LSM than for HSM subjects. HSMs' tendency to portray themselves differently to various audiences resulted in less rating convergence across sources. Study 2, employing project teams in five corporations, replicated the convergence finding. Implications for use of various sources of appraisal and for understanding the role of self‐monitoring in performance appraisal are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

License extensions for clean-record drivers: A 4-year follow-up

Over 4,000,000 of California's 17,000,000 licensed drivers used to come to the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) annually to take written and vision tests in order to renew their driver licenses. In an effort to increase public convenience and reduce costs, extension of the license by mail was implemented for selected groups of drivers with clean records over the life of their previous licenses. Continued implementation of the program was subject to evaluation of its effect on traffic safety. Since clean-record drivers make up about 50% of the renewal population, this program made it possible for some 2,000,000 drivers annually to avoid coming to the DMV for license renewal. Two studies of program safety effects were conducted, one evaluating a 2-year extension (760,000 subjects), and the other a 4-year extension (407,000 subjects). Random assignment to a group offered extension by mail or to a control group undergoing standard renewal testing and procedures was followed by careful tracking of accident and conviction activity. During the 48-month period following mailing of renewal notices or extension offers, the extension group had a slightly higher accident rate than did the in-person renewal group — an increase of 1%, or 13 accidents for every 10,000 extension offers. Although this small increase in accident rate would translate into about 2,500 additional accident involvements per year if applied to the current volume of clean-record drivers eligible for extension, statistical tests of significance indicated that the increase could easily be due to sampling error (p>.10). A supplemental Bayesian analysis resulted in a .24 probability that there was no true increase. The administrative cost savings attributable to the extension program were conservatively estimated to be $3,000,000 per year.     

驾驶员注意力分配定量方法研究

驾驶员在不同的路况环境下存在不同的注意力分配模式,为弄清其分配模式特点,利用露天体育场内作为模拟驾驶环境,并利用眼动设备,记录被试者在直道驾驶任务、弯道驾驶任务、复杂路况驾驶任务等3种路况下的眼动数据,采用划分兴趣区域的方式,把视觉信息源划分为原车道兴趣区域FL(Former Lane)和其他兴趣区域OA(Other Areas)两个兴趣区域,对平均百米注视次数、平均百米注视时间、不同兴趣区域注视次数百分比3个眼动指标在两个兴趣区域内的分布情况进行分析和对比,得出不同路况环境下不同的注意力分配模式来揭示驾驶员驾驶过程中的注意力分配特点。研究结果对于驾驶员驾驶培训侧重点的改进、对于预防交通事故都具有重要意义。