Probabilistic risk assessment and risk mapping of metals in tropical estuarine sediments using the 1 quarisk model

Total sediment concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, As, and Hg obtained from the Ankobra, Sakumo II, and Volta estuaries in Ghana were used to generate contaminant probability density distributions and species sensitivity distributions in AQUARISK. Results of the tier 1 assessment showed Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were not of concern in the Ankobra as their measured values and the 99th percentile of the fitted distributions were lower than the SQG low-trigger values. Mercury (Hg) and As were however, identified to be of concern in this estuary. In the Sakumo II estuary, Cu, Cd, Pb, and Hg have been identified to be of concern because their concentrations are higher than the SQG low-trigger values. Hg has been identified as the only metal of concern in the Volta estuary. The total proportion of species likely to be affected by the combined concentration of Cd, Cu, and Zn measured from Ankobra, Sakumo II, and Volta were 14%, 16%, and 12%, respectively, according to the Bur III distributional analysis of the ecotoxicology data. The measured median sediment concentrations of As and Hg in the Ankobra estuary greatly exceeded the median sediment concentration targets to achieve a 5% or less exceedence of the SQG low value. Similarly, in the Sakumo II estuary, the measured median sediment concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Hg greatly exceeded the median sediment concentration targets to achieve a 5% or less exceedence of the SQG low. For the Volta estuary however, other metals except Hg fall below the target values.     

China's water risk assessment and industrial source analysis based on the localization of WWF water risk assessment tools

The WWF water risk assessment tool is a universal methodology, as the establishment of its indicators fully consider various types of natural and social environments. When this tool is applied to China, a large country with a complex water situation in a period of rapid development, appropriate localization adjustment is necessary to ensure that indicators are generally stable and assessment results are internationally comparable. Based on the localization of WWF water risk assessment tools, this is the first application assessing water risk in China in terms of physical risks, regulatory risks and reputation risks. It explores the sources of China's water risk from industrial sectors and constructs a classification index system according to the degree of water dependence and the level of water pollution. Using the classification index system and relevant data, we find the key industrial sectors, enterprises and production processes to reduce water risk in China's ten major water valleys and offer some effective and practical management suggestions. Due to the large regional differences of water risk-bearing capacity in China, the assessment results should be interpreted in combination with specific national conditions of China and emphasis should be laid on key areas and industries.     

Integrated exposure monitoring for health risk assessment

Risk estimation and risk evaluation in society are often done separately for pollutants in ambient air, water, food and industrial air. The need for evaluating total exposure is pointed out. Ongoing international programs are referred to. Biological monitoring in combination with environmental monitoring constitutes a promising step towards an integrated exposure monitoring for health risk assessment. The rationale for such an approach is discussed. The need of monitoring not only single substances but a combination of substances is exemplified. A strengthening of the basic research in related fields will widely increase future possibilities for health-related surveillance.     

Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal “duty to warn” doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine “boiler plate” addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the “Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals” (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals.     

Cultured human-cell-based bioassay for environmental risk management

Among bioassays for evaluating various impacts of chemicalson humans and ecosystems, those based on culturedmammalian-cells can best predict acute lethal toxicity to humans. Weexpect them to be employed in the future in environmentalrisk management alongside mutagenicity tests and endocrine-disrupting activity tests. We recently developed adisposable bioassay device that immobilizes humanhepatocarcinoma cells in a small micropipette tip. Thisenables very quick (within 2 h) evaluation of acute lethaltoxicity to humans. For bioassay-based environmentalmanagement, 2 promising approaches have been demonstrated bythe US-EPA: toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) andtoxicity reduction evaluation (TRE). The Japanese Ministryof Environment has been supporting a multi-center validationproject, aimed at assembling a bioassay database. To makefull use of these resources, we present a numerical modelthat describes contribution of individual chemical toobserved toxicity. This will allow the selection of the mosteffective countermeasure to reduce the toxicity. Bioassay-based environmental risk management works retrospectively,whereas impact assessment using substance flow models andtoxicity databases works prospective. We expect that these 2approaches will exchange information, act complementarily,and work effectively in keeping our environment healthy inthe 21st century.     

Unanticipated potential cancer risk near metal recycling facilities

Metal recycling is an important growing industry. Prior to this study, area sources consisting of metal recycling facilities fell in a category of limited regulatory scrutiny because of assumed low levels of annual emissions. Initiating with community complaints of nuisance from smoke, dust and odor, the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) began a monitoring program outside metal recycler facilities and found metal particulates in outdoor ambient air at levels which could pose a carcinogenic human health risk. In a study of five similar metal recycler facilities which used a torch cutting process, air downwind and outside the facility was sampled for eight hours between 6 and 10 times each over 18 months using a mobile laboratory. Ten background locations were also sampled. Iron, manganese, copper, chromium, nickel, lead, cobalt, cadmium and mercury were detected downwind of the metal recyclers at frequencies ranging from 100% of the time for iron to 2% of the time for mercury. Of these metals, chromium, nickel, lead, cobalt, cadmium and mercury were not detected in any sample in the background. Two pairs of samples were analyzed for total chromium and hexavalent chromium to establish a ratio of the fraction of hexavalent chromium in total chromium. This fraction was used to estimate hexavalent chromium at all locations. The carcinogenic risk posed to a residential receptor from metal particulate matter concentrations in the ambient air attributed to the metal recyclers was estimated from each of the five facilities in an effort to rank the importance of this source and inform the need for further investigation. The total risk from these area sources ranged from an increased cancer risk of 1 in 1,000,000 to 6 in 10,000 using the 95th upper confidence limit of the mean of the carcinogenic metal particulate matter concentration, assuming the point of the exposure is the sample location for a residential receptor after accounting for wind direction and the number of shifts that could operate a year. Further study is warranted to better understand the metal air pollution levels in the community and if necessary, to evaluate the feasibility of emission controls and identify operational improvements and best management practices for this industry.This research adds two new aspects to the literature: identification of types and magnitude of metal particulate matter air pollutants associated with a previously unrecognized area source, metal recyclers and their potential risk to health.     

Evolutionary consequences for ecological risk assessment and management

The human health risk assessment (HRA) paradigm is being used as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). The modification of the HRA paradigm to ERA will be most useful in an ecotoxicological sense, to assess the effect of hazards to single indicator species and populations, rather than to ecosystems. However, even for single species and population assessments, there are major differences in HRA and ERA. One such difference derives from the HRA tenet that human impairment at any age is important, and that each individual is important. For ERA, individuals are less important, and it is the population and its survival and interactions that are of concern. One exception is in the case of endangered species where every individual is critical because of its potential impact on survival and genetic diversity of the species. We suggest that ERA must take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted individuals in assessing hazards. This will involve adding additional steps to evaluate the value of the individual to current population levels, assessing reproductive value, and assessing recovery potential. Although ecologists recognize the importance of these factors, we suggest that they should be integral parts of ecological risk assessment.     

Ecological risk assessment of open coal mine area

The coal mine areas in China have the serious conflicts between resources exploitation and ecology safety, therefore the coal mine ecological risk assessment is an important problem which relates to the sustainability of coal mines to regions and the whole country. In this study, open coal mine area serves as researching object, heavy metals, soil erosion and coast are screened out as risk resources, soil wireworm as the receiver of heavy metals risk, biotope ecosystem as the receiver of soil erosion and coast risk; ecological indexes are calculated with species background index, biological diversity index and natural degree index, ecological friability indexes are calculated with soil fertility index, plant coverage, plant species diversity index, soil wireworm index and maturity index, and the typical coal mine area assessment indexes system is established. In addition, the regional ecological risk assessment is conducted on the friable ecological system of Fuxin Haizhou open coal mine area. Examples are researched of Haizhou open coal mine, the coal mine risk distribution is established, and foundations are provided for the administrative decision-making.     

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.     

A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA.The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system.These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process.     

Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector.     

Air pollution in Athens basin and health risk assessment

An inventory of air pollution sources within the Athens basin is carried out for the years 1989, 1992 and 1998 and the results areinputted in a climatological model for predicting ambient concentrations. Despite of the significant growth in the numberof road vehicles and the deteriorating traffic, the emissions andambient concentrations of fine particulates, CO, NO_x and VOCappear to remain reasonably constant over for the period 1989 to 1998, while these of SO₂ and Pb are reduced, mainly due to the renewal of vehicle fleet, the use of catalytic technologies and the improved quality of the used fuel. The results further indicate that for CO, NO_x and VOC the major source is road traffic, while for PM_2.5 and SO₂ both space heating andtraffic share responsibility. The air pollutant concentrations monitored by the network of 11 stations are reviewed and statistics related to air quality guidelines are presented. As fine particulate levels are not monitored, approximate PM_2.5and PM₁₀ concentrations are derived from black smoke ones on basis of experimentally determined conversion factors. The computed and monitored air pollution levels are compared and found in reasonable agreement. The results of the above analysisshow that the levels of all `classical' pollutants, with the exception of SO₂ and Pb, exceed significantly the WHO guidelines and are thus expected to exert a significant healthimpact. The latter could be quantified in relation to the PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ levels on the basis of risk assessment information developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The results show that the existing levels of fine particle concentrations in Athens increase significantly the mortality and morbidity, and reduce the average longevity of the entirepopulation from 1.3 to 1.7 years.