Using Ecological Function to Develop Recovery Criteria for Depleted Species: Sea Otters and Kelp Forests in the Aleutian Archipelago

Abstract: Recovery criteria for depleted species or populations normally are based on demographic measures, the goal being to maintain enough individuals over a sufficiently large area to assure a socially tolerable risk of future extinction. Such demographically based recovery criteria may be insufficient to restore the functional roles of strongly interacting species. We explored the idea of developing a recovery criterion for sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the Aleutian archipelago on the basis of their keystone role in kelp forest ecosystems. We surveyed sea otters and rocky reef habitats at 34 island‐time combinations. The system nearly always existed in either a kelp‐dominated or deforested phase state, which was predictable from sea otter density. We used a resampling analysis of these data to show that the phase state at any particular island can be determined at 95% probability of correct classification with information from as few as six sites. When sea otter population status (and thus the phase state of the kelp forest) was allowed to vary randomly among islands, just 15 islands had to be sampled to estimate the true proportion that were kelp dominated (within 10%) with 90% confidence. We conclude that kelp forest phase state is a more appropriate, sensitive, and cost‐effective measure of sea otter recovery than the more traditional demographically based metrics, and we suggest that similar approaches have broad potential utility in establishing recovery criteria for depleted populations of other functionally important species.     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

Demographic Effects of Harvesting Epiphytic Bromeliads and an Alternative Approach to Collection

Abstract: Hundreds of epiphytic bromeliads species are harvested from the wild for trade and for cultural uses, but little is known about the effects of this harvest. We assessed the potential demographic effects of harvesting from the wild on 2 epiphytic bromeliads: Tillandsia macdougallii, an atmospheric bromeliad (adsorbs water and nutrients directly from the atmosphere), and T. violaceae, a tank bromeliad (accumulates water and organic material between its leaves). We also examined an alternative to harvesting bromeliads from trees—the collection of fallen bromeliads from the forest floor. We censused populations of T. macdougallii each year from 2005 to 2010 and of T. violaceae from 2005 to 2008, in Oaxaca, Mexico. We also measured monthly fall rates of bromeliads over 1 year and monitored the survival of fallen bromeliads on the forest floor. The tank bromeliad had significantly higher rates of survival, reproduction, and stochastic population growth rates (λ_s) than the atmospheric bromeliad, but λ_s for both species were <1, which suggests that the populations will decline even without harvest. Elasticity patterns differed between species, but in both, survival of large individuals had high elasticity values. No fallen bromeliads survived more than 1.5 years on the forest floor and the rate of bromeliad fall was comparable to current harvest rates. Low rates of population growth recorded for the species we studied and other epiphytic bromeliads and high elasticity values for the vital rates that were most affected by harvest suggest that commercial harvesting in the wild of these species is not sustainable. We propose the collection of fallen bromeliads as an ecologically and, potentially, economically viable alternative.     

Effects of Trophy Hunting on Lion and Leopard Populations in Tanzania

Abstract: Tanzania holds most of the remaining large populations of African lions (Panthera leo) and has extensive areas of leopard habitat (Panthera pardus), and both species are subjected to sizable harvests by sport hunters. As a first step toward establishing sustainable management strategies, we analyzed harvest trends for lions and leopards across Tanzania's 300,000 km² of hunting blocks. We summarize lion population trends in protected areas where lion abundance has been directly measured and data on the frequency of lion attacks on humans in high‐conflict agricultural areas. We place these findings in context of the rapidly growing human population in rural Tanzania and the concomitant effects of habitat loss, human‐wildlife conflict, and cultural practices. Lion harvests declined by 50% across Tanzania between 1996 and 2008, and hunting areas with the highest initial harvests suffered the steepest declines. Although each part of the country is subject to some form of anthropogenic impact from local people, the intensity of trophy hunting was the only significant factor in a statistical analysis of lion harvest trends. Although leopard harvests were more stable, regions outside the Selous Game Reserve with the highest initial leopard harvests again showed the steepest declines. Our quantitative analyses suggest that annual hunting quotas be limited to 0.5 lions and 1.0 leopard/1000 km² of hunting area, except hunting blocks in the Selous Game Reserve, where harvests should be limited to 1.0 lion and 3.0 leopards/1000 km².     

Harvesting in an eight-species ecosystem

The theory for a general equilibrium ecosystem model that can include large number of interacting species is presented. Features include: (1) individual plants and animals are assumed to behave as if they are maximizing their net energy intake, (2) short- and long-run equilibriums are obtained, (3) species’ population adjustments depend on individual net energies. The theory is applied using simulations of an eight-species Alaskan marine ecosystem for which a “natural” equilibrium is calculated. Humans are introduced by adding a regulated open access fishery that harvests one of the species. Fishing impacts the fish population as well as the populations of other species, including Stellar sea lions, an endangered species. The sensitivity of fish and nonfish species populations to harvesting are calculated.     

Interactive Effects of Harvest and Deer Herbivory on the Population Dynamics of American Ginseng

Abstract:  Few demographic models for any species consider the role of multiple, interacting ecological threats. Many forest herbs are heavily browsed by white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and a number of these are also harvested for the medicinal, floral, or horticultural trades. Previous studies of the viability of American ginseng ( Panax quinquefolius ) have separately examined the effects of harvesting and deer herbivory. We followed individually marked ginseng plants in 6 populations for 8 years and documented deer browse levels, conducted helicopter surveys to estimate the deer herd size, and documented 2 ginseng harvests. We used this long-term data set to develop a stochastic demographic model that quantified the separate and interactive role of these threats to ginseng viability. Although harvesting and deer herbivory negatively affected ginseng population growth, their effects were not additive. Deer herbivory negatively affected population growth in the absence but not in the presence of harvesting. Life table response experiments revealed that in the presence of harvesting, deer herbivory had some positive effects on vital rates because browsed plants were less apparent to harvesters. Ginseng populations that were harvested responsibly (i.e., planting seeds from harvested individuals) had higher growth rates than those that were harvested irresponsibly. We concluded that both deer populations and harvesting must be managed to ensure sustainable populations of American ginseng. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term monitoring to assess threats to viability and the need for a broad ecological understanding of the complexity of ecosystem management.     

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Sustainability of Freshwater Crayfish Harvesting in Madagascar

Abstract:  There is growing interest among conservation decision makers in promoting harvesting of forest products as an incentive for communities to retain forest cover. Assessments of the sustainability of existing harvests are essential for implementing such policies. Madagascar's endemic freshwater crayfish, Astacoides spp., are harvested throughout their range. Despite their importance to human communities, Madagascar's crayfish, like much of the island's freshwater biodiversity, are poorly known, and there is concern that the harvest may be unsustainable. We investigated sustainability of the crayfish harvest in and around Ranomafana National Park in eastern Madagascar, focusing on the heavily harvested A. granulimanus. Several villages around the park have traditional taboos against selling crayfish, resulting in widely varying levels of crayfish exploitation. We used two approaches to assess sustainability of the harvest. First we used participatory mapping combined with a geographic information system analysis to produce a spatially accurate map of harvesting intensity. We then carried out mark-and-recapture sampling at 74 sites across a range of harvest intensities to test whether the level of harvesting was a significant predictor of crayfish density and structure. Second, we used size-structured matrix population models to estimate the forest area necessary to provide the observed annual harvest from one harvesting village and compared this estimate with the area available to the harvesters. Our findings show that the crayfish harvest in Ranomafana may be sustainable under current socioeconomic conditions, suggesting that A. granulimanus is less vulnerable to overexploitation than previously thought. We emphasize the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to assessing sustainability involving both ecological information about the harvested species and socioeconomic data about the level and spatial pattern of the harvest.     

Tree mortality following partial harvests is determined by skidding proximity

Recently developed structural retention harvesting strategies aim to improve habitat and ecological services provided by managed forest stands by better emulating natural disturbances. The potential for elevated mortality of residual trees following such harvests remains a critical concern for forest managers, and may present a barrier to more widespread implementation of the approach. We used a harvest chronosequence combined with dendrochronological techniques and an individual-based neighborhood analysis to examine the rate and time course of residual-tree mortality in the first decade following operational partial "structural retention" harvests in the boreal forest of Ontario, Canada. In the first year after harvest, residual-tree mortality peaked at 12.6 times the preharvest rate. Subsequently, mortality declined rapidly and approached preharvest levels within 10 years. Proximity to skid trails was the most important predictor both of windthrow and standing death, which contributed roughly equally to total postharvest mortality. Local exposure further increased windthrow risk, while crowding enhanced the risk of standing mortality. Ten years after harvest, an average of 10.5% of residual trees had died as a result of elevated postharvest mortality. Predicted cumulative elevated mortality in the first decade after harvest ranged from 2.4% to 37% of residual trees across the observed gradient of skid trail proximity, indicating that postharvest mortality will remain at or below acceptable rates only if skidding impacts are minimized. These results represent an important step toward understanding how elevated mortality may influence stand dynamics and habitat supply following moderate-severity disturbances such as partial harvests, insect outbreaks, and windstorms.     

Effects of Illegal Harvest of Eggs on the Population Decline of Leatherback Turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park,Costa Rica

Abstract: Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.     

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.     

Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Management Options to Promote Recovery of a Depleted Salmon Population

Abstract:  The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives.     

Bald eagles and sea otters in the Aleutian Archipelago: indirect effects of trophic cascades

Because sea otters (Enhydra lutris) exert a wide array of direct and indirect effects on coastal marine ecosystems throughout their geographic range, we investigated the potential influence of sea otters on the ecology of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, USA. We studied the diets, productivity, and density of breeding Bald Eagles on four islands during 1993-1994 and 2000-2002, when sea otters were abundant and scarce, respectively. Bald Eagles depend on nearshore marine communities for most of their prey in this ecosystem, so we predicted that the recent decline in otter populations would have an indirect negative effect on diets and demography of Bald Eagles. Contrary to our predictions, we found no effects on density of breeding pairs on four islands from 1993-1994 to 2000-2002. In contrast, diets and diet diversity of Bald Eagles changed considerably between the two time periods, likely reflecting a change in prey availability resulting from the increase and subsequent decline in sea otter populations. The frequency of sea otter pups, rock greenling (Hexagammus lagocephalus), and smooth lumpsuckers (Aptocyclus ventricosus) in the eagle's diet declined with corresponding increases in Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus), Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), and various species of seabirds during the period of the recent otter population decline. Breeding success and productivity of Bald Eagles also increased during this time period, which may be due to the higher nutritional quality of avian prey consumed in later years. Our results provide further evidence of the wide-ranging indirect effects of sea otter predation on nearshore marine communities and another apex predator, the Bald Eagle. Although the indirect effects of sea otters are widely known, this example is unique because the food-web pathway transcended five species and several trophic levels in linking one apex predator to another.     

Sex-Biased Harvesting and Population Dynamics in Ungulates: Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Use

The consumptive use of wildlife, in particular trophy hunting and game ranching of ungulates, has been advocated as a tool for conservation in Africa. We show that these methods of harvesting differ significantly from natural predation, with trophy hunting showing extreme selection for adult males and game ranching leading to disproportionate harvests of young males. Little information, either theoretical or empirical, exists concerning the effect of these harvesting regimes on the long-term population dynamics of ungulate populations. Despite that, the potential effects of sex-skewed harvests are numerous. In this paper, we investigate one potentially deleterious effect of sex-skewed harvests. Both theory and experimental data suggest that male ungulates are limited in their absolute ability to inseminate females. Using a Leslie-Matrix model and published data on impala, we show that the interaction between sperm limitation and harvests with highly male-biased sex ratios can lead to greatly reduced female fecundity (defined as the number of young born) and population collapse. These results are robust and suggest that present methods of harvesting may not be optimal, or viable, in the long term.     

Optimal harvesting of a plant-hervibore system: lichen and reindeer in northern Finland

The optimal harvesting policy for a plant-herbivore system consisting of lichen and reindeer in Finnish Lapland is investigated. Using a discrete time model with no age structure it is shown that the optimal procedure to reach target levels for lichen and reindeer involves a possible initial harvest of reindeer and then a sequence of no-harvesting years until the lichen has recovered. After two adjusting harvests the system will settle to an equilibrium. The optimal solution is compared with the fastest possible approach to the target levels. The two solutions coincide if future yields are sufficiently discounted. With a discount factor near one there will be a heavier initial harvest in the optimal solution. It is seen that allowing some harvesting also in the no-harvesting years has no marked effect on the total yield. The target levels for lichen and reindeer are not unique but depend both on discounting and on the length of the planning period.     

Setting Realistic Recovery Targets for Two Interacting Endangered Species,Sea Otter and Northern Abalone

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species‐centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator–prey interactions. Using simulation‐based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional‐response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short‐term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives. Definición de Metas de Recuperación Realistas para Dos Especies en Peligro Interactuantes, Enhydra lutris y Haliotis kamtschatkana     

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters.

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks.     

A method to estimate pre-exploitation population size

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre-exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre-exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age-structured population model, we estimated the pre-exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5–3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. Article impact statement: Defining species recovery requires an understanding of baseline population state, which can be estimated through statistical methods.     

Human impact on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paracentrotus lividus</Emphasis>: the result of harvest restrictions and accessibility of locations

The sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus is common in the Mediterranean Sea in shallow subtidal rocky habitats, and it is intensely harvested for commercial and recreational purposes. This study is aimed at investigating whether the effects of harvest restrictions of P. lividus in rocky reef habitats interact with the accessibility of locations in structuring sea urchin population (total and commercial-sized individuals). These results are important for generating hypotheses about the influence of human harvesting on P. lividus and for addressing suitable measures of conservation. Paracentrotus lividus was sampled after the end of the sea urchin harvesting period (May–July 2007) within the Gulf of Alghero (North West Sardinia), where the Capo Caccia–Isola Piana Marine Protected Area (MPA) was established since 2002. Paracentrotus lividus was sampled at sixteen locations and attributed in groups of four to 4 combinations of harvest restrictions (Restricted Harvest, RH, vs. Unlimited Harvest, UH) and accessibility (Boat vs. Car), which correspond to a gradient of potential human activity on P. lividus in the ranked order of very low (RHBoatfar), low (RHBoatclose), moderate (RHCar) and high (UHCar). At each location, two depth ranges of 3–7 and 8–12 m were considered. At each of these depths, two areas of about 100-m² size were chosen. The density of P. lividus was assessed in ten quadrats of 1 × 1 m, and the size of 100 individuals (test diameter) was considered. Human activity has been found to significantly affect population structure of P. lividus influencing the proportion of individuals larger than 50 mm. Although harvest was restricted by MPA regulations, a significantly lower abundance of large individuals was found at sites accessible by car. This result highlights that there is an effect of harvest restrictions in relation to accessibility and emphasizes the need to carefully address the enforcement of the MPA toward easily accessible sites. Thus, surveillance and investment in enforcement of marine reserves seem crucial points that may provide the greatest return on maintaining the ecological benefits to the fishery activities.     

Ungulate population dynamics and optimization models

Optimal harvesting strategies for an ungulate population are estimated using stochastic dynamic programming. Data on the Llano Basin white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population were used to construct a 2-variable population dynamics model. The model provided the basis for estimating optimal harvesting strategies as a feedback function of the current values of the state variables (prefawning older deer and juveniles). Optimal harvest strategies were insensitive to assumptions about the probability distributions of the stochastic variable (rainfall). The response of the population components to harvesting and the returns obtained from applying optimal strategies were explored through simulation. Mean annual harvest is about 15% of the population. Simplified harvesting strategies based on age-ratios as well as a simplified version based on optimal strategies—but assuming persisting equilibrium juvenile deer density—were compared to optimal strategies through examining values of information. Simplified harvesting strategies lead to a lower harvest over a 50-year simulation period.