AQI time series prediction based on a hybrid data decomposition and echo state networks

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - A hybrid AQI time series prediction model is proposed based on EWT-SE-VMD secondary decomposition, ICA (imperialist competitive algorithm) feature...     

An improved trend vegetation analysis for non-stationary NDVI time series based on wavelet transform

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The aim of this paper is to improve trend analysis for non-stationary Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series (TS) over different...     

Unsupervised monitoring of vegetation in a surface coal mining region based on NDVI time series

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Surface coal mining causes vegetation disturbance while providing an energy source. Thus, much attention is given to monitoring the vegetation of...     

Effectiveness of cascading time series models based on meteorological factors in improving health risk prediction

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Meteorological factors, which are periodic and regular in a long run, have an unignorable impact on human health. Accurate health risk prediction...     

Time series analyses of global change data

The hypothesis that statistical analyses of historical time series data can be used to separate the influences of natural variations from anthropogenic sources on global climate change is tested. Point, regional, national, and global temperature data are analyzed. Trend analyses for the period 1901-1987 suggest mean annual temperatures increased (in degrees C per century) globally at the rate of about 0.5, in the USA at about 0.3, in the south-western USA desert region at about 1.2, and at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south-eastern Arizona at about 0.8. However, the rates of temperature change are not constant but vary within the 87-year period. Serial correlation and spectral density analysis of the temperature time series showed weak periodicities at various frequencies. The only common periodicity among the temperature series is an apparent cycle of about 43 years. The temperature time series were correlated with the Wolf sunspot index, atmospheric CO(2) concentrations interpolated from the Siple ice core data, and atmospheric CO(2) concentration data from Mauna Loa measurements. Correlation analysis of temperature data with concurrent data on atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and the Wolf sunspot index support previously reported significant correlation over the 1901-1987 period. Correlation analysis between temperature, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, and the Wolf sunspot index for the shorter period, 1958-1987, when continuous Mauna Loa CO(2) data are available, suggest significant correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations but no significant correlation between global warming and the Wolf sunspot index. This may be because the Wolf sunspot index apparently increased from 1901 until about 1960 and then decreased thereafter, while global warming apparently continued to increase through 1987. Correlation of sunspot activity with global warming may be spurious but additional analyses are required to test this hypothesis. Given the inconclusive correlation between temperature and solar activity, the significant intercorrelation between time, temperature, and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, and the suggestion of weak periodicity in the temperature data, additional research is needed to separate the anthropogenic component from the natural variability in temperature when assessing local, regional, and global warming trends.     

Risk assessment of environmental chemicals

This article is a summary from eleven important symposia. In these meetings, critical facts were discussed which are the necessary basis for the important legislation about toxic substances in Europe, in the U.S.A. and in Japan. This review article should also be of some help to the readers of “Chemosphere” for direct contacts with the experts mentioned. It is therefore an informative and coordinative survey, in which chemical and ecotoxicological details are largely omited.     

Impact of uranium mines closure and abandonment on groundwater quality

The aim of the study is to assess the evolving mine water quality of closed uranium mines (abandoned between 1958 and 1992) in the Czech Republic. This paper focuses on the changes in mine water quality over time and spatial variability. In 2010, systematic monitoring of mine water quality was performed at all available locations of previous uranium exploitation. Gravity flow discharges (mine adits, uncontrolled discharges) or shafts (in dynamic state or stagnating) were sampled. Since the quality of mine water results from multiple conditions—geology, type of sample, sampling depth, time since mine flooding, an assessment of mine water quality evolution was done taking into account all these conditions. Multivariate analyses were applied in order to identify the groups of samples based on their similarity. Evaluation of hydrogeochemical equilibrium and evolution of mine waters was done using the Geochemist’s Workbench and PHREEQC software. The sampling proved that uranium concentrations in mine waters did not predominantly exceed 0.45 mg/L. In case of discharges from old adits abandoned more than 40 years ago, uranium concentrations were below the MCL of US Environmental Protection Agency for uranium in drinking water (0.03 mg/L). Higher concentrations, up to 1.23 mg/L of U, were found only at active dewatered mines. Activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra varied from 0.03 up to 1.85 Bq/L except for two sites with increased background values due to rock formation (granites). Radium has a typically increasing trend after mine abandonment with a large variability. Concerning metals in mine water, Al, Co and Ni exceeded legislative limits on two sites with low pH waters. The mine water quality changes with a focus on uranium mobility were described from recently dewatered mines to shafts with water level maintained in order to prevent outflows to surface water and finally to stagnating shafts and discharges of mine water from old adits. The results were in good agreement with published experience on mine water stratification, its disturbance by pumping or natural water decant and the “first flush” phenomenon after mine flooding.     

生活垃圾填埋场对地下水污染的风险评价——以北京北天堂垃圾填埋场为例

以国外生活垃圾填埋场对地下水污染的风险评价方法为基础,建立了综合考虑含水层脆弱性及生活垃圾填埋场自身性质的地下水污染风险评价方法,并以北京北天堂垃圾填埋场为例.评价了当地4个生活垃圾填埋场对地下水污染的风险级别.结果表明,生活垃圾填埋场对地下水污染的风险取决于场地规模、防护情况等自身相关参数以及场地所处位置的含水层脆弱...     

Risk assessment and prioritisation of contaminated sites on the catchment scale

Contaminated sites pose a significant threat to groundwater resources worldwide. Due to limited available resources a risk-based prioritisation of the remediation efforts is essential. Existing risk assessment tools are unsuitable for this purpose, because they consider each contaminated site separately and on a local scale, which makes it difficult to compare the impact from different sites. Hence a modelling tool for risk assessment of contaminated sites on the catchment scale has been developed. The CatchRisk screening tool evaluates the risk associated with each site in terms of its ability to contaminate abstracted groundwater in the catchment. The tool considers both the local scale and the catchment scale. At the local scale, a flexible, site specific leaching model that can be adjusted to the actual data availability is used to estimate the mass flux over time from identified sites. At the catchment scale, a transport model that utilises the source flux and a groundwater model covering the catchment is used to estimate the transient impact on the supply well. The CatchRisk model was tested on a groundwater catchment for a waterworks north of Copenhagen, Denmark. Even though data scarcity limited the application of the model, the sites that most likely caused the observed contamination at the waterworks were identified. The method was found to be valuable as a basis for prioritising point sources according to their impact on groundwater quality. The tool can also be used as a framework for testing hypotheses on the origin of contamination in the catchment and for identification of unknown contaminant sources.     

Risk assessment of biocides in roof paint

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Many surface coatings, including roof paints, contain biocides. It is generally not known to what extent roof paint biocides leach from the paint, and consequently, what concentration the biocide may attain in a rainwater collection system. To this end the leaching of specific biocides from a variety of German roof paints was investigated and the resulting concentrations in collected rain water were estimated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A laboratory simulation was used to determine the time dependant leaching rate of the biocide from the paint into synthetic rainwater. The concentrations of biocide in the leachate were quantified using HPLC. The course of the leachate concentrations over time was fitted using a simple mathematical model. This was then used to estimate concentrations of biocides in a typical household rainwater collection system over time. RESULTS: Surprisingly, the biocides found in the paints did not always concur with the declared biocides. Concerning the modelling of runoff concentrations, it was found that--under the model assumptions--the rain intensity and cumulative raining time after application are the dominant factors influencing the concentration of the biocide. At the highest modelled rain intensity of 40 mm/hour it only takes about 2 hours to reach peak concentrations lower than 0.1 mg/L, at 0.3 mm/hour it takes about 10 hours to reach peak concentrations of 1.3, 0.9, 5.2 and 1.1 mg/L for terbutryn from Emalux paint, terbutryn from Südwest paint, carbendazim from Emalux paint, and carbendazim from MIPA paint, respectively. DISCUSSION: The results confirm that biocides leached from roof paint will be present in roof runoff. The highest estimated peak concentrations are close to the water solubility of the respective biocides. This indicates that the model assumption of a concentration independent leaching rate will tendentially lead to an overestimation of the leached concentrations under these circumstances. However, under most circumstances such as higher rain intensities, and longer time after peak concentrations have been reached, the runoff concentrations are far from the solubility limit, and therefore it is proposed that the model assumptions are tenable. CONCLUSIONS: The leaching of biocides from roof paints can be roughly assessed using a relatively simple approach. The declaration of biocidal ingredients in roof paints should be improved and information on their biocide leaching behaviour should be made available. Furthermore, the estimations should be evaluated by a field study. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The leaching study indicated that the concentrations of selected biocides can reach significant levels, especially after low intensity rainfall. Taking into account the inherent biological activity of the substances under scrutiny, it can already be concluded that it is not advisable to use runoff water from roofs freshly painted with biocide containing roof paints. These results have been complemented by a literature search of biological effects of the investigated biocides, ecotoxicological tests with several species and a risk analysis for organisms exposed to runoff water. This will be presented in Part 2 of this contribution.     

Global networking for assessment of impacts of global change on plant pests

Global change encompasses changes in atmospheric composition, climate and climate variability, and land cover and land use. The occurrence of these changes and their interactive effects on biological systems are worldwide; thus, an effective global change research and impact assessment program must be based on international and interdisciplinary research and communication. With this in mind, several collaborative research networks with a focus on global change have been established in the biological sciences. They include the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) which aims to predict the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture and production forestry. Because of the importance of plant pests (arthropods, microbial pathogens, weeds) as yield-reducing factors in agriculture and as early indicators of global change, GCTE initiated a network Activity on "Global Change Impacts on Pests, Diseases and Weeds" with the overall goal of developing a predictive capability for impact assessment and adaptation. The network's specific objectives, contributing research projects, initial results and future challenges are discussed.     

Risk assessment of land-use suitability and application to Tangshan City

Risk assessment for suitability is one of the main problems in city landuse planning for disaster prevention. Decision-making strategy using GIS-based Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method is discussed through analysing OWA evaluation procedure. Data of geological disaster in Tangshan City are used to calculate the distances from dangerous areas or safety area to yield evaluation criteria for all disaster factors of land-use suitability.     

基于“压力—状态—响应”模型和分形理论的湿地生态健康评价

科学评价湿地生态系统健康是湿地管理和保护的重要前提。以海河流域河北衡水湖湿地为例,采用"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)模型对其健康评价进行探讨研究,并对该模型的压力、状态和响应部分分别建立相应的指标体系;该指标体系不仅将生态、经济、社会要素结合起来,而且考虑了湿地所处地区的社会经济结构、湿地所具有的功能以及管理部门、个人及企业等对保护湿地所采取的措施。同时,根据湿地生态系统具有自组织、自相似的特征,基于分形理论对其进行评价。计算分析时首先对选择的各指标进行归一化处理,然后采用最小二乘法求解拟合曲线斜率的方法来计算分维数(D),由1/D得到脆弱度,以此作为评价健康程度的依据。计算结果表明,D=0.5826,则脆弱度为1.7164,表明衡水湖湿地生态系统处于不健康程度。该湿地亟待开展进一步的科学管理和生态保护。     

Risk assessment of boron in glass wool insulation

Background, aim and scope  Glass wools are man-made vitreous fibres, which consist principally of sodium, calcium and magnesium silicates, but may contain smaller amounts of other elements, including boron. The boron contents originate from the use of borates in the glass melting process as a glass former and a flux agent. During the production and application of glass wool insulation products, workers may legally be exposed to glass fibre up to the occupational limit value, commonly of 1 fibre/cm³. However, in practice, the fibre exposure will be at least ten times lower. Boron is a non-metallic element widely distributed in nature, where it occurs as boric acid, borates and borosilicates. Humans are mainly exposed to boron via vegetarian food and drinking water, mineral supplements and various consumer products. Boron is an essential element for plant growth, but the essentiality for humans is not proven, although intakes of trace amounts of the element seem to be useful for bone health and proper brain function; higher concentrations of boron, however, may be toxic. In relation to the European Union legislation on dangerous substances, an EU Expert Group has recommended classifying boric acid and borates with risk phrases for reproductive toxicity. The aim of this paper is to assess whether the new EU hazard classification of boron compounds should imply that glass wool products used for building insulation in the future should be labelled, “may impair fertility and cause harm to the unborn child”, because of the low boron content. Materials and methods  Boron intakes are estimated in a worst-case occupational situation with human exposure to glass wool fibres at the occupational limit of 1 fibre/cm³ by calculation of the mass of the amount of fibres inhaled during an 8-h work day. Fibres are supposed to be cylinders of glass with a length of 30 μm, an average diameter of 1.5–2 μm and containing either 1.5% or 3.5% boron. As a worst-case scenario, the density of the fibres is set to 2,700 kg/m³. The inhalation rate of the individuals at moderate work load was set to 2 m³/h. A worst-case scenario also corresponds to 100% retention and to 100% solubility of the retained fibres in the lungs. Results  With the normal boron content of 1.5% in glass wool fibres for building insulation, the extra daily occupational boron intake/uptake will be 0.03–0.06 mg B for 5 days a week. For more uncommon glass wool with maximum boron content of 3.5%, the worst-case daily boron intake/uptake will be 0.08–0.16 mg B. The main boron exposure in the general population is from vegetarian food, and the average daily dietary intake with food is estimated to 1.2–1.5 mg B/day. In addition, significant intakes may come with drinking water, especially from mineral water. In some instances, exposure from mineral supplements, cosmetics and other consumer products may be significant. For example, individuals taking mineral supplements, e.g. for bodybuilding, may have an additional intake to that of 1–10 mg/day. During the years, various organisations have recommended safe intake values for boron. Recently, the Scientific Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has established the ‘Tolerable Upper Intake Level’ (UL) for the intake of boron (boric acid and borates) at 0.16 mg B/kg body weight per day or about 10 mg B/day for an adult. Discussion  The calculated, worst-case exposure scenario during an 8-h work day will result in an extra daily boron intake that only corresponds to about 10% of the average daily adult boron intakes through food and drinks of about 1.5 mg. The inter-individual variations in boron intakes from foods, water and supplements will be much greater than an eventual, very worst-case, additional intake of boron from inhalation of glass wool fibres. In addition, the combined intakes are far lower than the ‘Tolerable Upper Intake Level’ of 10 mg B/day for a person weighing 60 kg, as recommended by the European Food Safety Agency. The potential boron intake from inhalation of glass wool fibres is also much lower than boron intakes by workers in the boron industry, who at the present occupational limit value will be exposed to 50 mg of boron 5 days a week, or 100 times more than the worst case for glass wool fibres. Furthermore, in practice, exposure levels will mostly be ten to 100 times lower than the occupational limit used here as a worst case. Conclusions  The estimated boron intake from inhalation of glass wool fibres in occupational settings will be insignificant and without any health risks, even in the case of non-compliance with the occupational limit value. Any proposal requiring hazard labels on commercial glass wool products for building insulation, because of the boron content, is not supported by the present scientific knowledge. Recommendations and perspectives  The European Commission should ensure that the new EU hazard classification of boron compounds is not applied to commercial glass wool products for building insulation having a low content of boron.     

日照市典型农用地土壤重金属来源分析及环境质量评价

于日照市典型农用地采集1 089个表层土壤样品,对土壤中的As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn的含量进行测定分析,利用多元统计分析方法解析土壤重金属的主要来源,并对土壤环境质量进行评价。结果表明:(1)研究区农用地表层土壤中除Cd外,其余7种重金属平均值均大于背景值,存在一定程度的重金属富集趋势;(2)8种重金属来源可识别为3个主成分,主成分1为工农业污染和自然因素的共同作用;主成分2可归为受成土母质影响的自然因素作用;主成分3代表了自然来源和大气沉降的共同作用;(3)研究区农用地土壤环境质量基本状况良好,8种重金属均不存在污染风险较高的情况出现,多以无风险的土壤为主,可满足农业耕作对土壤的环境质量要求。     

Delineation of basic farmland based on the quality and spatial stability: a case study of Yingtan City,China

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Delimiting basic farmland is essential to ensure food security and maintain social stability. Determining the quantity and spatial layout of the basic...     

Research on the anti-interference capability of the tourism environment system for the core stakeholders of semi-arid valley-type cities: analysis based on the multi-scenario and time series diversity perspectives

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Given the relatively harsh natural environment in semi-arid valley areas, the attraction and radiation functions of semi-arid valley cities have...     

Risk assessment of cyanobacteria toxic metabolites on freshwater ecosystems applying molecular methods

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Cyanobacteria, ancient prokaryotes, interfere with ecosystem water quality through the production of cyanotoxins and bloom formation. Therefore, for...     

The differential impact of air pollutants on acute urticaria and chronic urticaria: a time series analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Several studies have revealed a relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and the exacerbation of certain skin conditions. This study...