Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries

In response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process investigating the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation in developing countries, this paper reviews technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and estimating emissions. Implementation of policies to reduce emissions from deforestation require effective deforestation monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented at the national level. Remotely sensed data supported by ground observations are key to effective monitoring. Capacity in developing countries for deforestation monitoring is well-advanced in a few countries and is a feasible goal in most others. Data sources exist to determine base periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Forest degradation (e.g. from high impact logging and fragmentation) also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions but it is more technically challenging to measure than deforestation. Data on carbon stocks, which are needed to estimate emissions, cannot currently be observed directly over large areas with remote sensing. Guidelines for carbon accounting from deforestation exist and are available in approved Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and can be applied at national scales in the absence of forest inventory or other data. Key constraints for implementing programs to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standard and consensual protocols for data interpretation and analysis.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

A data support infrastructure for Clean Development Mechanism forestry implementation: an inventory perspective from Cameroon

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry project development requires highly multi-disciplinary and multiple-source information that can be complex, cumbersome and costly to acquire. Yet developing countries in which CDM projects are created and implemented are often data poor environments and unable to meet such complex information requirements. Using Cameroon as an example, the present paper explores the structure of an enabling host country data support infrastructure for CDM forestry implementation, and also assesses the supply potential of current forestry information. Results include a conceptual data model of CDM project data needs; the list of meso- and macro-level data and information requirements (Demand analysis); and an inventory of relevant data available in Cameroon (Supply analysis). From a comparison of demand and supply, we confirm that data availability and the relevant infrastructure for data or information generation is inadequate for supporting carbon forestry at the micro, meso and macro-levels in Cameroon. The results suggest that current CDM afforestation and reforestation information demands are almost impenetrable for local communities in host countries and pose a number of cross-scale barriers to project adoption. More importantly, we identify proactive regulatory, institutional and capacity building policy strategies for forest data management improvements that could enhance biosphere carbon management uptake in poor countries. CDM forestry information research needs are also highlighted.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries through technology transfer?: a survey of empirical evidence

While greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise primarily in the developing countries, the potential for developing new GHG mitigation technologies exists primarily in the industrialized countries. It is thus important, not only for predictions about future emission paths but also for climate change mitigation policies, to understand how the international diffusion of such technologies takes place and how it affects the energy infrastructure and GHG emissions in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the channels through which these technologies diffuse and focuses on the empirical evidence pertaining to the effects these technologies have on GHG emissions in developing countries.

Capital assets and institutional constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture

Agriculture is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. It accounts for approximately 15% of the total global anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. Emissions could be twice as much if indirect emissions are also taken into the consideration. However, unlike other high emitting sectors such as transport or energy, agriculture is potentially a significant carbon “sink”. It has high technical potential as a carbon sink and if tapped, can substantially enhance global sequestration efforts. The technical potential, however, may not translate into actual GHG reduction because of the capital assets and institutional constraints faced by the smallholder farmers in the developing countries. In this paper we develop a capital assets based framework of physical, financial, social, human and natural barriers to agricultural carbon mitigation initiatives and through analysis of current initiatives, we set out policy based options to reduce each of these barriers. Fundamentally, barrier removal will entail designing agricultural carbon mitigation initiatives in collaboration with farmer communities, through strengthening local institutions, understanding land tenure and natural resource cultures, ensuring legitimacy and equity in payments and fast tracking training and information. We provide a framework that simultaneously aids the dual objectives of alleviating poverty in the poor farming communities of developing countries and lowering global greenhouse gas emissions.     

Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO₂), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

     

Joint Implementation Under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change: Technical and Institutional Challenges

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) allows for the joint implementation (JI) of measures to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. The concept of JI refers to the implementation of such measures in one country with partial or full financial and/or technical support from another country, potentially fulfilling some of the supporting country's emission-reduction commitment under the FCCC. At present, all JI transactions are voluntary, and no country has claimed JI credit against existing FCCC commitments. Nevertheless, JI could have important implications for both the economic efficiency and the international equity of the implementation of the FCCC. This paper discusses some of the information needs of JI projects and seeks to clarify some of the common assumptions and arguments about JI. Issues regarding JI are distinguished according to those that are specific to JI and those that apply to JI as well as other types of regimes and transactions. The focus is on the position of developing countries and their potential risks and benefits regarding JI.     

Forest carbon management,the greenhouse effect and electric utilities

Electric utilities in the US have initiated forestry projects to conserve energy and to offset carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In 1995, 40 companies raised US$2.5 million to establish the non-profit UtiliTree Carbon Company which is now sponsoring eight projects representing a mix of rural tree planting, forest preservation, forest management and research efforts at both domestic (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oregon) and international sites (Belize and Malaysia). The projects include extensive external verification. Such forestry projects — properly documented, monitored and verified — should be a component of domestic and international strategies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, due to GHG benefits, cost-effectiveness and many other environmental benefits (e.g., related to habitat, erosion and biodiversity). These projects on average are projected to manage CO₂ at a cost of about US $1 per ton. Experts have determined through a series of technical workshops and projects that GHG benefits can be accurately quantified for most types of forestry projects and, in fact, forestry projects in general present no greater challenges than energy-related projects. Near-term policy decision-making related to CO₂ management via forestry is discussed.     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

The Monitoring,Evaluation, Reporting and Verification of Climate Change Projects

Because of concerns with the growing threat of global climate change from increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, the United States and other countries are implementing, by themselves or in cooperation with one or more other nations, climate change projects. These projects will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or sequester carbon, and will also result in non-GHG benefits (i.e., environmental, economic, and social benefits). Monitoring, evaluating, reporting, and verifying (MERV) guidelines are needed for these projects to accurately determine their net GHG, and other, benefits. Implementation of MERV guidelines is also intended to: (1) increase the reliability of data for estimating GHG benefits; (2) provide real-time data so that mid-course corrections can be made; (3) introduce consistency and transparency across project types and reporters; and (4) enhance the credibility of the projects with stakeholders. In this paper, we review the issues involved in MERV activities. We identify several topics that future protocols and guidelines need to address, such as: (1) establishing a credible baseline; (2) accounting for impacts outside project boundaries through leakage; (3) net GHG reductions and other benefits; (4) precision of measurement; (5) MERV frequency and the persistence (sustainability) of savings, emissions reduction, and carbon sequestration; (6) reporting by multiple project participants; (7) verification of GHG reduction credits; (8) uncertainty and risk; (9) institutional capacity in conducting MERV; and (10) the cost of MERV.     

Options for baselines of the clean development mechanism

The Kyoto Protocol created the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to allow industrial countries to reach part of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction through projects in developing countries. To calculate the achieved emission reduction a reference scenario has to be developed – the baseline. Despite efforts to develop realistic baselines, a certain degree of uncertainty regarding actual reductions will be inevitable. It is therefore necessary to compare the costs (including transaction costs) of developing a baseline against the informational benefit it can be expected to produce. While project-related baselines are already being applied, the proponents of country-related baselines have still to show the applicability of their approach for the CDM. The possibility of quantifying indirect effects and considering market distortions and subsidies through aggregation in the country-related baselines is weighed up by the manipulability and uncertainty of the assumptions required in such a baseline. Thus project-specific baselines are recommended. In cases of severely distorted markets undergoing liberalization or subsidy phase-out, a country-related baseline can be helpful. Sectoral or programme baselines would be suited to large-scale energy and sequestration projects. Moreover it has to be considered whether emission reductions are generally achieved in the context of relocation or done in the context of global emitting capacity expansion.     

Assessment of GHG inventories from the LUCF sector of Annex-I countries

Reporting of CO₂ emissions and removals from the landuse change and forestry (LUCF) sector is assessed in this paper based onthe National GHG inventories and the National Communications submittedby the Annex-I countries. LUCF sector is a net sink for 27 countries outof 31 countries and a source for Australia, Estonia, Lithuania and UnitedKingdom. LUCF sector for Annex-I countries, as a group is a net sink of2035 Tg CO₂ (555 Tg Carbon). The sink feature is largely due toCO₂ removal by the existing forests, plantations and other trees.Forest and grassland conversion (deforestation) is not a major source ofCO₂ in the Annex-I countries. Many Annex-I countries have notfully adopted the reporting format of IPCC limiting the comparability andtransparency. Several Annex-I countries have modified the CO₂emission/removal estimates for 1990, but have not explained the reasons.Reporting of uncertainty is very limited. The methods adopted andparticularly reporting is inadequate to meet the requirements foroperationalising the Kyoto Protocol articles relevant to LUCF;comparability, transparency and verifiability.     

Fostering P2 practices in northwest Mexico through inter-university collaboration

This paper describes the relationship between the Work Environment Department of the University of Massachusetts Lowell in the United States and the Industrial Engineering Department of the University of Sonora in Mexico to promote P2 practices in northwest Mexico. The relationship is an example of how international collaborations can be fostered between universities from developed and developing countries by encouraging cooperation around technology transfer, training assistance, technical support, and information dissemination. The collaboration between these two universities around technology transfer has sought first to provide a source of information on innovative technologies that have environmental and economical advantages, and subsequently to identify industry needs and provide solutions through technology research and development at the University of Sonora.     

国际组织中同行评估制度及其在环境领域的应用

同行评估是对国际组织内各个国家的绩效进行评估的技术方法,是鼓励国家间政策对话、提高信息透明度、提高各国管理能力的有效手段,目前已在多个国际组织内得到应用,其中在OECD的应用最为广泛和成熟。本文分析了同行评估的目标、基础和特点,并以同行评估在环境领域的应用为例,对评估的参与方、步骤、内容和发展等进行详解介绍。最后简要介绍环境绩效评估在中国的应用,并对中国参与同行评估提出建议。     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.     

The case for consumption-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions to promote local climate action

One of the challenges faced by local governments in the work with municipal climate action plans concerns accounting for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—what emissions should be targeted, development of emissions over time, and how to effectively measure the success of local climate action. In this paper, we present challenges in developing a GHG emissions inventory related to the provision of municipal services. We argue that a consumption-based perspective, illustrated through the use of the carbon footprint (CF), rather than more conventional production-based inventory, provides a more useful and less misleading indicator. We present an analysis of the CF of municipal services provided by the city of Trondheim. The use of data directly from the city's accounting system ensures a reliable calculation of indirect emissions, and, with some minor modifications, also accurate data on direct emissions. Our analysis shows that approximately 93 percent of the total CF of municipal services is indirect emissions, located in upstream paths, underlining the need of introducing consumption-based indicators that takes into account upstream GHG emissions.     

Institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV: Countries progress in implementing technical guidelines and good governance requirements

The UNFCCC requires REDD+ countries wishing to receive results-based payments to measure, report and verify (MRV) REDD+ impacts; and outlines technical guidelines and good governance requirements for MRV. This article examines institutional effectiveness of REDD+ MRV by assessing countries’ progress in implementing these technical guidelines and good governance requirements, from three dimensions. Ownership of technical methods examines whether countries own technical methods for forest area and area change measuring, and for estimating forest carbon stocks; and whether national MRV systems cover all forests, land uses and carbon pools. Administrative capacity examines development of administrative competence to implement MRV. Good governance examines whether countries espouses norms of good governance in their MRV systems. We apply these dimensions to assess and compare progress in 13 REDD+ countries, based on a review of national and international documents. Findings show that REDD+ countries have high to very high ownership of technical methods. However, majority ranks only low to moderate on administrative capacity and good governance. This means that although countries have started developing technical methods for MRV, they are yet to develop the competence necessary to administer MRV and to inculcate good governance in MRV. The article explain the scores and suggest ways of improving implementation of REDD+ MRV.     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. The agreement requires all Parties to submit their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Extensive tropical forest loss and degradation have increased awareness at the international level of the need to undertake large-scale ecological restoration, highlighting the need to identify cases in which restoration strategies can contribute to mitigation and adaptation. Here we consider Brazil as a case study to evaluate the benefits and challenges of implementing large-scale restoration programs in developing countries. The Brazilian NDC included the target of restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests for multiple uses by 2030. Restoration of native vegetation is one of the foundations of sustainable rural development in Brazil and should consider multiple purposes, from biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation to social and economic development. However, ecological restoration still presents substantial challenges for tropical and mega-diverse countries, including the need to develop plans that are technically and financially feasible, as well as public policies and monitoring instruments that can assess effectiveness. The planning, execution, and monitoring of restoration efforts strongly depend on the context and the diagnosis of the area with respect to reference ecosystems (e.g., forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands). In addition, poor integration of climate change policies at the national and subnational levels and with other sectorial policies constrains the large-scale implementation of restoration programs. The case of Brazil shows that slowing deforestation is possible; however, this analysis highlights the need for increased national commitment and international support for actions that require large-scale transformations of the forest sector regarding ecosystem restoration efforts. Scaling up the ambitions and actions of the Paris Agreement implies the need for a global framework that recognizes landscape restoration as a cost-effective nature-based solution and that supports countries in addressing their remaining needs, challenges, and barriers.