Optimising the environmental benefits of emission reductions from UK coal- and oil-fired power stations: a critical loads approach

This paper describes a method for determining reductions of SO₂ emissions from coal- and oil-fired power stations, oil refineries and large industrial units in the UK taking into account their pollution potential. The method is based on the use of two gridded data sets: critical loads, which represent the sensitivity of the environment to acid deposition and modelled estimates of total (wet + dry) sulphur deposition for 646 point sources within the UK. An iterative method is used to identify and subsequently reduce emissions from point sources that contribute most to areas of critical loads exceedance. This paper demonstrates how the method may be used to determine an optimal allocation of emissions across the UK which yields the maximum amount of environmental protection per unit of emission.The paper then goes on to consider the changes that will have to take place within the UK power generation industry in order to meet the revised EC Large Combustion Plant Directive which comes into force on 1 January 2008. Particular emphasis is placed upon proposed emissions trading schemes and the environmental implications of allowing trading between stations with high and low pollution potentials. The paper concludes by suggesting that the emissions trading process should take into account the pollution potential of each source, irrespective of whether the proposed emission is within the plant's agreed emission limit. An approach based entirely on minimizing environmental damage rather than one which takes cost into account, as in current integrated assessment modelling, could provide an interesting approach across the rest of Europe.     

应用稳态模型计算中国南方地表水的硫沉降临界负荷

为了解我国地表水体对酸沉降的响应情况,应用基于酸度平衡的稳态模型计算我国南方地表水的硫沉降临界负荷.文中根据我国实际情况获得了计算地表水背景硫酸盐浓度的经验公式.结果表明,我国南方绝大部分地表水的硫沉降临界负荷大于2.0 keq·(hm²·a)^-1,对酸沉降不敏感.临界负荷小于2.0 keq·(hm²·a)^-1的水体主要为部分山地水体.除了这部分山地水体外,其余水体的现状S沉降都没有超过临界负荷,表明它们在短期内不会发生酸化.超临界负荷的地区分布和临界负荷类似,均表现为东南沿海的福建、广东和江西3省低于西南和华中地区.对模型结果的不确定性分析表明,只要模型参数的取值在合适的范围内,参数的不确定性对结果造成的误差较小,可以接受.     

Developing the Hull Acid Rain Model: its validation and implications for policy makers

The Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM) is extensively used in the UK to help in formulating strategies for reducing the emissions of acidifying pollutants. Here we describe the development of a 10 km version of HARM, which incorporates both software development and a new representation of the dry deposition of reduced N. Output from the new model for the UK is compared with S and N deposition data available from the UK's monitoring networks for 1992–1994 using linear regression. The model is able to reproduce the overall patterns of deposition for S, oxidised and reduced N. Although improved from earlier model versions, HARM still appears to underestimate dry deposition of reduced N. We describe the implications of the changes to HARM for assessing current policy commitments to reduce emissions of acidifying pollutants through changes in critical loads (CL) exceedance.     

The influence of long term trends in pollutant emissions on deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and exceedance of critical loads in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, as with other European countries, land-based emissions of NO_x and SO₂ have fallen significantly over the last few decades. SO₂ emissions fell from a peak of 3185 Gg S in 1970 to 344 Gg S in 2005 and are forecast by business-as-usual emissions scenarios to fall to 172 Gg by 2020. NO_x emissions were at a maximum of 951 Gg N in 1970 and fell to 378 by 2005 with a further decrease to 243 Gg N forecast by 2020. These large changes in emissions have not been matched by emissions changes for NH₃ which decreased from 315 Gg N in 1990 to 259 in 2005 and are forecast to fall to 222 by 2020. The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen deposition over the United Kingdom during a 15-year time period (1990–2005) and compared with measured deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium from the national monitoring network. Wet deposition of nitrogen and sulphur was found to decrease more slowly than the emissions reductions rate. This is attributed to a number of factors including increases in emissions from international shipping and changing rates of atmospheric oxidation. The modelled time series was extended to a 50-year period from 1970 to 2020. The modelled deposition of SO_x, NO_y and NH_x to the UK was found to fall by 87%, 52% and 25% during this period. The percentage area of sensitive habitats in the United Kingdom for which critical loads are exceeded is estimated to fall from 85% in 1970 to 37% in 2020 for acidic deposition and from 73% to 49% for nutrient nitrogen deposition. The significant reduction in land emissions of SO₂ and NO_x focuses further attention in controlling emissions from international shipping. Future policies to control emissions of ammonia from agriculture will be required to effect further significant reductions in nitrogen deposition.     

Critical load of sulfur deposition for ecosystemand its application in China

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Acid deposition critical loads modeling for the simulation of sulfur exceedance and reduction in Guangdong, China

The current acid deposition critical loads in Guangdong, China were calculated using the PROFILE model with a 3 km × 3 km resolution. Calculations were carried out for critical loads of potential acidity, actual acidity, sulfur and nitrogen, with values in extents of 0–3.5, 0–14.0, 0–26.0 and 0–3.5 kmol/(hm2·year), respectively. These values were comparable to previously reported results and reflected the influences of vegetation and soil characteristics on the soil acid buffering capacity. Simulations of S...     

确定不同保证率下的中国酸沉降临界负荷

在进行中国酸沉降临界负荷区划时 ,通常以 1°× 1°(经纬度 )的网格为单位进行计算 ,难以反映网格内不同生态系统对酸沉降敏感性的差异 .为了便于决策者根据临界负荷确定酸沉降控制对策 ,也为了使 1°× 1°的结果更具代表性和实用性 ,本研究确定了 0 1°× 0 1°网格为单位计算的中国酸沉降临界负荷 ,并在此基础上通过引入保证率的概念 ,得到了一系列与一定的经济技术水平相适应的、允许有一定损失的 1°× 1°的中国酸沉降临界负荷图 .利用累积分布函数 ,本研究还确定了不同保证率下的中国酸沉降超临界负荷分布和各省、市、自治区的酸沉降临界负荷 .     

An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

Framework for improved confidence in modeled nitrous oxide estimates for biofuel regulatory standards

Biofuels vary greatly in their carbon intensity, depending on the specifics of how they are produced. Policy frameworks are needed to ensure that biofuels actually achieve intended reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Current approaches do not account for important variables during cultivation that influence emissions. Estimating emissions based on biogeochemical models would allow accounting of farm-specific conditions, which in turn provides an incentive for producers to adopt low emissions practices. However, there are substantial uncertainties in the application of biogeochemical models. This paper proposes a policy framework that manages this uncertainty while retaining the ability of the models to account for (and hence incentivize) low emissions practices. The proposed framework is demonstrated on nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from the cultivation of winter barley. The framework aggregates uncertainties over time, which (1) avoids penalizing producers for uncertainty in weather, (2) allows for a high degree of confidence in the emissions reductions achieved, and (3) attenuates the uncertainty penalties borne by producers within a timescale of several years. Results indicate that with effective management, N₂O emissions from feedstock cultivation may be <?5% of the carbon intensity of gasoline, whereas the existing policy approach estimates emissions >?20% of the carbon intensity of gasoline. If these emissions reductions are monetized, the framework can provide up to $0.002 per liter credits (0.8 cents per gallon) to fuel producers, which could incentivize emissions mitigation practices by biofuel feedstock suppliers, such as avoiding fall N application on silty clay loam soils. The conservatism in the current approach fails to incentivize the adoption of biofuels, while the lack of specificity fails to incentivize site-level mitigation practices. Improved uncertainty accounting and consideration of farm-level practices will incentivize mitigation efforts at landscape to global scales.     

基于环境效应的土壤重金属临界负荷制图

我国高速发展的工业化和城市化造成土壤重金属污染问题日益严重,威胁到生态环境和人体健康,因此重金属污染的防控与管理变得尤其重要.临界负荷是重金属风险管理的重要工具,可以用来防范重金属污染危害的发生.本文基于现状平衡、水环境效应以及健康风险这3种情形,采用稳态质量平衡模型,分别计算Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn元素在不同效应水平下的临界负荷值并进行制图,分析重金属临界负荷及其空间分布特征,利用长三角地区和中国的农田重金属输入通量,估算出超临界负荷的面积比例.结果表明,Cd的临界负荷值最小,Pb次之,Cu和Zn较大.研究区内各元素的临界负荷在空间上存在差异,低值区主要分布在林地,高值区零散地分布于城市东部与西南部,农田以中值区和中高值区为主.与通量监测数据比较发现,各重金属元素均出现超临界负荷现象,其中研究区90%以上面积的Pb、Zn元素均超出不同效应下的临界负荷,Cd元素主要在现状平衡与健康风险下出现超临界负荷,Cu元素在现状平衡与水环境效应下出现大面积超临界负荷.本文研究的不同效应水平下的重金属临界负荷可以作为重金属排放控制的参考,从而有效地控制重金属的排放来防止重金属污染风险的发生.     

Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

The use of word-based models to describe the development of UK acid rain policy in the 1980s

Understanding how environmental policy decisions were reached in the past might help predict policy development in the future. This paper evaluates how well two existing frameworks for decision analysis fit acid rain policy development of the UK Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) in the 1980s. Decision tree analysis assumes a rational approach to decision-making and overlooks the dynamic nature of the decision making process. Trudgill's model identifies barriers to policy development, but it is not possible to identify which are most important. Both concentrate on the role of scientific uncertainty in the acid rain debate. An alternative approach is presented which identifies all possible influencing factors and assesses their relative influence. Whilst confirming the importance of the resolution of scientific uncertainty in this case study, it identifies a number of alternative pressure sources, including independent scientific review, rises in SO₂ emissions, European environmental legislation, and influences within the Government. In all three models, ascribing predictive values to all possible options is a major problem. All models are limited in their ability to describe complex and dynamic environmental problems, and hence have limited predictive powers. Decision tree analysis and Trudgill's barriers model identify how scientific uncertainty is dealt with within organisations, whilst the influencing factors approach puts decisions in a broader, political framework.     

SO2排放造成的森林损失计算:以湖南省为例

SO₂排放对我国的森林生态系统造成了严重的损害,因而损失计算对于SO₂控制具有重要意义,但是目前仍缺乏有效的方法计算不同排放水平下的森林损失.本研究以硫沉降超临界负荷作为计算森林损失的参数,推导了适用于我国硫沉降导致森林损失的剂量-响应函数,并以湖南省为例,以1995为基准年,计算了2000年～2020年高中低3种SO₂排放方案下的森林损失.研究结果表明,随着今后湖南省经济和能源消费的增长,森林损失将继续增加.高排放方案下2020年SO₂排放将增长1.2倍,但森林损失增长4.3倍,边际损失高于6000元/t.在当前排放水平下对SO₂排放进行削减,边际效益达到1500元/t,因此控制SO₂具有显著的经济效益.对湖南案例的不确定性分析显示,计算方法有较高的可靠性.研究结果为区域SO₂控制策略的优化提供了支持.     

Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH₃-N. NH₃-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH₃-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.     

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission inventories — evaluation,comparability and implications

This paper reviews quantitative assessments of uncertainty in level and trend in national greenhouse gas inventories. The reported uncertainty in the total emissions of high-quality greenhouse gas inventories ranges from ±5–20% in studies of five industrialised countries. The differences in uncertainty are, in particular, due to different subjective assessment of the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils. The fraction of CO₂ in the inventory has little effect on the uncertainty. The uncertainties in trends are about ±4–5 percentage points for those countries that have made estimates. High uncertainties of emission levels indicate potential for improvements and, consequently, recalculations. Recalculations will reduce uncertainty, but might also cause practical problems. A high uncertainty in the emission level for large emission sources may be an obstacle for assessing cost-effective reduction strategies as well as for designing effective systems of emission trading. This could imply that the more uncertain emission sources should be excluded from emission trading. Alternatively, subjective uncertainty estimates may be expressed in terms of an economic risk of recalculation. The latter system may allow a market-based encouragement to reduce emission uncertainty. Reductions in uncertainties are anticipated in the future. However, it will be extremely difficult to reduce the trend uncertainty. Trend uncertainties may consequently remain high compared with the emission reduction targets in the Kyoto protocol.     

Uncertainty in Agricultural CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> AND N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O Emissions from Finland – Possibilities to Increase Accuracy in Emission Estimates

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N_2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH₄ emissions are more reliable than those of N₂O. N₂O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N₂O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N₂O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH₄ estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.     

The uncertainty of atmospheric source-receptor relationships in Europe

This paper investigates the composite uncertainty of a long range transport model of sulfur in Europe. This composite uncertainty includes the effect on model output of uncertain transport wind, meteorological forcing functions, parameters, and spatial distribution of emissions. Other sources of uncertainty are omitted in the analysis. Stochastic simulation is used for computations. The combined effect of these uncertainties on total annual sulfur deposition at three receptors ranged from about 10 to 20% (coefficient of variation). In comparing the effects of different uncertainties on annual model output, meteorological forcing functions were found to be the least important because of their frequent temporal variation in the model.The stochastic procedure was also used to compute the uncertainty of transfer coefficients for 30 source-receptor combinations; their relative uncertainty ranged from about 10 to 30% and was not correlated with distance. However, their absolute uncertainty (standard deviation) was strongly correlated. with distance and was found to be proportional to the values of the transfer coefficients themselves. This insight was used to develop a simple method for estimating the uncertainty of sulfur deposition calculated with a transfer matrix. This method was then used to evaluated the “reliability” of emission reduction scenarios in reducing deposition.     

Measuring the environmental performance of IPPC industry: II. Applying the Environmental Emissions Index to quantify environmental performance trends from routinely reported data

Reported emissions data were collated for 35 pharmaceutical-manufacturing installations and 18 power stations holding IPPC licences in Ireland. Consistent and essentially complete sectoral emissions time-series were generated, covering 2002–2006 for the pharmaceutical sector, and 2001–2006 for the electricity-generating sector. Applying the Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) to reported emissions indicated environmental performance improvements of 35 and 30%, respectively, for these two sectors. However, considerable uncertainty was attributed to reporting of heavy metals, NO_x and NMVOC emissions at the installation level, and overall NMVOC emissions from the pharmaceutical sector appeared to be considerably under-reported. The fixed average toxicity factor applied to NMVOC emissions in the EEI may deviate from potential temporal changes in the NMVOC compound mix. Overall, reporting uncertainties were found to have a greater impact on EEI outputs than assumptions made in the EEI model, and including an estimate of total sectoral NMVOC emissions reduced the pharmaceutical sector's environmental performance improvement to 24%. The EEI facilitates the comparison and visualisation of reported emissions, integrating them into environmental performance trends. It should optimise interpretation of abundant, detailed, and underutilised ‘bottom-up’ emissions data generated by IPPC installations. For Ireland's pharmaceutical sector, these data are considerably more comprehensive than EPER data.     

Assessment of the maximum allowed acid deposition load at current stage in China

Soil acidification caused by acid deposition has been significant in some forests in southern China. We present an approach for assessing the current stage maximum allowed load (SML) of acid deposition for terrestrial system in the country. The main idea was that soil base cation exchange as a finite buffer to acidity was included in the soil acidity mass balance calculation at current acidification stage. We calculated the SML for five forests in southern China. The usual critical loads for the same forests were also calculated by the steady state mass balance model for comparison. The results showed that the SML is a more tolerant limit than the critical load for the forests with soils not acidified seriously at current stage. However, the SML become a more stringent limit to acid deposition when the forest soils have acidified seriously to very low base cation saturation. In this case the SML assessment is beneficial for the soils recovering from a serious acidified state. Based on a national scale database, the SML mapping for non-agricultural soil system in China was carried out.