基于选择试验模型的基本农田非市场价值评估——以浙江省德清县为例

非市场价值是基本农田价值的重要组成部分。对基本农田价值的全面认识与科学评估,有助于基本农田保护经济补偿机制的建立。针对目前中国耕地和基本农田非市场价值研究中尚未引入选择试验模型的现状,论文尝试将选择试验模型引入基本农田非市场价值评估研究,并以浙江省德清县为例展开实证分析。在问卷调查的基础上,首先分析城乡居民对于基本农田保护的认知差异;然后运用选择试验模型分析城乡居民对于基本农田非市场价值的认知偏好及其可能的异质性来源;最后评估并比较城乡居民对于基本农田非市场价值的支付意愿,得出德清县基本农田的非市场价值。研究得到如下主要结论:①城乡居民对基本农田非市场价值的认知偏好存在差异,其认知偏好受年龄、教育程度、家庭人口数、收入、行为和态度变量的影响;②城镇居民的支付意愿普遍高于农村居民,城镇居民平均年支付意愿为143.04元/户,农村居民平均年支付意愿为27.47元/户,城乡居民的收入差异显著影响其支付意愿;③Mixed Logit模型能够揭示不同个体之间存在的选择偏好的异质性及其可能来源,且模型拟合程度更高,解释力优于MNL模型,但是,在应用MNL模型和Mixed Logit模型评估属性的支付意愿时,估计结果存在差异;④计算结果表明,2009年德清县基本农田非市场价值为2.58×10⁸元,单位面积非市场价值为1.27×10⁴元/hm²,占基本农田总价值的54.17%。     

Evaluating the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in Languedoc-Roussillon,France

Sea-level rise due to climate change creates new risks of submersion in coastal areas that must be taken into account. Although these are long-term risks for 2100, it is important to anticipate possible consequences in order to identify the most vulnerable areas or issues and develop the appropriate adaptation policies. The aim of this paper is to examine the consequences of such sea-level rise for wetlands in the Languedoc-Roussillon region (France) which is particularly at risk of submersion. The analysis is based on the worst case scenario of a one meter sea level rise by 2100, with a variety of adaptive strategies: denial, laissez-faire and strategic retreat of infrastructure and buildings. This latter strategy assumes that the retreat wetlands is unconstrained. The evaluation examines the losses and transformations of ecological habitats, depending on their distance from salt water. Estimating damages and benefits requires first, to study the evolution of the services supplied by different habitats and second, to estimate the value of the economic impact. This approach demonstrates the superiority of a strategic retreat policy which would halve the damages resulting from submersion.     

Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Coastal regions worldwide are during the process of rapid urban expansion. However, expanded urban settlements in land-sea interfaces have been faced with unprecedented threats from climate change related hazards. Adaptation to coastal hazards has received increasing attention from city managers and planners. Adaptation and land management practices are largely informed by remote sensing and land change modeling. This paper establishes a framework that integrates land change analysis, coastal flooding, and sea level rise adaptation. Multilayer perceptron neural network, similarity learning, and binary logistic regression were applied to analyze spatiotemporal changes of residential, commercial, and other built-up areas in Bay County, Florida, USA. The prediction maps of 2030 were produced by three models under four policy scenarios that included the population relocation strategy. Validation results reveal that three models return overall acceptable accuracies but generate distinct landscape patterns. Predictions indicate that planned retreat of residents can greatly reduce urban vulnerability to sea level rise induced flooding. While managed realignment of the coast brings large benefits, the paper recommends different mixes of adaptation strategies for different parts of the globe, and advocates the application of reflective land use planning to foster a more disaster resilient coastal community.     

淮河流域典型癌病高发区土壤和地下水重金属积累及健康风险

分别采集淮河沿岸某癌病高发区土壤和地下水样品,分析和探讨了土壤和地下水重金属的含量、分布和季节变化,以及土壤和地下水重金属积累的生态与健康风险.结果表明,除Zn外,土壤和地下水重金属含量旱季均高于雨季,癌病高发村庄高于其他村庄,河流污染是沿岸土壤和地下水重金属积累的主要原因.除土壤Cd达到中度潜在生态风险外,土壤中其余重金属的潜在生态风险总体为轻微级.癌病高发村庄居民饮水中重金属致癌和非致癌健康风险明显高于其他村庄居民,均为其他村庄居民的2倍以上,其中,重金属非致癌健康风险达到93.09×10-10a-1,接近国际健康组织推荐的最大可忽略风险,重金属致癌健康风险达到27.82×10-5a-1,分别为ICRP和US EPA推荐的最大可接受风险的5倍和2倍以上.各种重金属中,Pb和Cr是主要的非致癌健康风险因子,Cr是主要的致癌健康风险因子.癌病高发村庄土壤和地下水重金属积累明显,存在较高的饮水重金属暴露健康风险.     

江西遂川林权改革环境影响Logit模型研究

为了了解林权改革后当地环境受到的影响及影响的主要因素,研究采用问卷调查的方式,对江西遂川县两个乡镇的林农、农民和少数外出务工人员进行了随机抽样调查。以322份有效调查问卷为基础进行统计分析,得到环境影响的Logit模型,可以用于林改对环境产生影响的分析研究,有利于当地政府更好地了解林权改革对环境的影响情况,完善相关改革措施。     

社区循环经济建设中存在问题及对策建议——以上海市闵行区为例

社区作为社会经济中最终的消费者,是循环经济建设中重要的一环。通过对上海市闵行区典型居住区的居委、物业工作人员和小区居民开展问卷调查,了解小区层次和居民家庭层次上节水、节能、资源回收利用等现状,以及居民绿色消费意识、对循环经济的认知程度和参与积极性等情况,分析了闵行区社区开展循环经济建设的基础及存在问题,并提出针对性建议。     

垃圾处理设施周边居民风险感知与邻避行为倾向研究

风险感知是邻避问题研究的一个重要视角.通过对北京市六里屯和高安屯两个垃圾处理场的实地调查,分析了垃圾处理设施周边173个家庭的风险感知、公平认知、受偿意愿与邻避行为倾向之间的关系.研究表明,多数居民认为垃圾处理场的存在对自己的生活造成了一定的负面影响,超过半数的居民有邻避行为倾向,居民的邻避行为倾向与风险感知有正相关关系,与公平认知和货币受偿意愿有负相关关系.因此,加强宣传和沟通,避免风险认知片面夸大也是化解邻避风险的重要手段.     

Predictors of local support for a seawater desalination plant in a small coastal community

Seawater desalination is increasingly being pursued to address freshwater shortages. In California, multiple coastal seawater desalination facilities have been proposed to diversify water portfolios and to increase reliability of water supply. This paper explores local residents support for a newly constructed desalination plant in Carlsbad, a small coastal community in Southern California. The plant is the first high-capacity desalination facility in California and started operation in December 2015. We found strong support for the desalination plant as 71.9% of residents reported support for the plant. Only 15.5% of respondents were undecided indicating that residents had a clear opinion on the plant. Perceptions about local water resources were significant predictors of support. Attitudes may change over time if the state of water resources and perceptions thereof change. Expected outcomes of the plant also predicted support. An increase in available drinking water was a positive predictor, while environmental and social impacts were negative predictors. Economic impacts in terms of an increase in the price of water did not influence local support. Ethnicity and age were the only socio-demographic variables that had an effect on support suggesting that the socio-demographic profile of a community may not be a good predictor of community support or rejection of this water supply technology.     

新冠肺炎疫情期间我国人群交通出行行为分析

为了解我国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情期间人群出行频次及交通方式,调查收集了2020年2月25日—3月14日我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）8 330名居民疫情期间的出行频次及交通方式等信息,并分析了其影响因素;对我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）按疫情严重程度进行等级划分,分析不同疫情等级下人群交通出行方式的差异,并与非疫情期间进行对比.结果表明:①新冠肺炎疫情期间调查人群中有75.1%的人有出行行为,其中,5.5%的人一天多次外出,17.6%的人每周出行频次不到一次.出行过程中乘坐公共交通和出租车这两类感染风险较高的交通工具的人数占比分别为6.3%和4.0%.②新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国居民的出行频次和交通方式可能受性别、年龄、城乡、片区等人口统计学变量以及当地或附近疑似/确诊病例情况的影响,还可能与所在省份疫情严重程度有关.西藏自治区、青海省等地区人群出行频次及交通方式受疫情影响变化相对较小,湖北省居民出行频次及交通方式与非疫情期间相比变化最大.③新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国成人居民选择步行和小轿车（出租车和私家车）出行的人数占比远高于非疫情期间,而选择公共交通和自行车或电动车等交通方式的人数占比与非疫情期间相比有所降低.研究发现,新冠肺炎疫情极大地改变了我国人群出行频次及交通方式.      

吉林省区域环境中硒的生态风险评价

将硒的生物动力学模型和蒙特卡罗（Monte Carlo）分析方法相结合,对吉林省居民血硒营养状况进行了定量生态风险评价研究研究结果表明,所建立的硒的生物动力学模型能够用于区域性居民血硒的预测预报模型．预测居民血硒平均值为0.044μg/mL,标准差为0.013,与实测血硒平均值0.043μg/mL,标准差0.019相比,无显著差异（P＞0.05）预测吉林省居民克山病发病的风险度为198％,与实测发病率16.4％较接近硒的生态风险评价模型的提出为人体内其他微量元素预测、预报模型的研究提供了范例．     

固城湖退圩还湖区沉积物重金属特征及生态风险评价

为探讨退圩还湖对固城湖表层沉积物重金属污染特征、空间分布和生态风险的影响,对退圩区和湖区表层沉积物重金属（Fe、Mn、As、Zn、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Cd和Pb）含量进行对比分析,采用地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法评价沉积物重金属污染现状和潜在生态风险程度,利用相关性和聚类分析法解析重金属主要污染物的潜在来源.结果表明,退圩区沉积物重金属中Cd （0.21mg/kg）和湖区沉积物重金属中Cd （0.56mg/kg）和Zn （145.33mg/kg）和Pb （41.17mg/kg）含量的平均值分别达到江苏省土壤背景值的2.45、6.55、2.24和1.87倍.湖区表层沉积物重金属Cd、Zn、Cu和Pb含量显著高于退圩区.地累积指数法评价显示退圩区中Cd为轻度污染;湖区中Cd为中度污染,Zn、As、Cu和Pb为轻度污染.潜在生态风险指数表明,湖区表层沉积物生态风险高于退圩区;Cd是湖区与退圩区最主要的生态风险贡献因子,可能与水产养殖活动以及工业废水排放有关.固城湖退圩还湖对于降低固城湖重金属生态风险有着积极作用.     

基于信息源信任度的PM2.5健康风险认知研究

运用心理测量范式调查北京和南昌居民对PM2.5信息发布源的信任度以及健康风险认知,结果表明,居民信息源信任度仅为一般水平,专家和非政府组织信任度较高,政府信任度较低,北京居民信任度低于南昌居民,风险认知高于南昌居民.基于结构方程模型,构建风险认知影响机理模型,分析表明信任度对风险认知有显著影响,北京和南昌影响系数分别为0.244、0.183;个体特征能直接或通过信任度间接影响风险认知,北京和南昌总影响系数分别为0.222、0.214,其中个体基础信息(年龄、月收入、职业)、健康状况(儿童和老人数、自身健康状况、曾或正患呼吸疾病或心肺疾病)、居住位置与工作方式均对信任度和风险认知有显著影响.     

Black Sea beaches vulnerability to sea level rise

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) aims to promote sustainable management of coastal zones based on ecosystem and holistic management approaches. In this context, policies have to consider the complex interactions that influence the fragile equilibrium of coastal ecosystems. Beaches represent both valuable and vulnerable natural resources because of the various ecosystem services they provide and their sensitivity to climate change and sea level rise.We present the first comprehensive digital record of all Black Sea beaches and provide a rapid assessment of their erosion risk under different scenarios of sea level rise. Through the digitisation of freely available remote-sensed images on the web, we provide broad information on the spatial characteristics and other attributes of all Black Sea beaches (e.g. photo-based visual estimation of the sediment type, presence of coastal defences, urban development). These data have been assembled and stored in full Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) – allowing spatial queries, visualisation and data sharing – and are therefore particularly interesting to feed/supply web-GIS portals (coastal atlases) for visualisation purpose, spatial queries or spatial indicators calculations.The resulting Black Sea beaches database contains 1228 beaches, with a total coastline length of 2042 km with an area of 224 km². The majority of the Black Sea beaches have been found to have small widths (61% have maximum widths less than 50 m), whereas 47% of all beaches presented coastal defence schemes, suggesting an already serious beach erosion problem.The erosion risk of the Black Sea beaches was assessed through the comparison of their maximum widths with estimations of the sea level rise-induced retreat by an ensemble of six 1-D analytical and numerical morphodynamic models. Following more than 17,000 experiments using different combinations of wave conditions, beach sediment textures and slopes and 11 scenarios of sea level rise (up to 2 m), the means (best fits) of the lowest and highest projections by the model ensemble were estimated; these were then compared to the maximum widths of the Black Sea beaches. The analysis showed that sea level rise will have highly significant impacts on the Black Sea beaches, as for a 0.5 m sea level rise 56% of all beaches are projected to retreat by 50% of their maximum width. For a 0.82 m sea level rise (the high IPCC estimate for the period 2081–2100) about 41% are projected to retreat by their entire maximum width, whereas for 1 m sea level rise about 51% of all Black Sea beaches are projected to retreat by (drowned or shifted landward by) their entire maximum width, if the high mean of the model ensemble projections is used.Results substantiate the risk of beach erosion as a major environmental problem along the Black Sea coast, which therefore needs to be taken into account in any future coastal management plans, as a matter of urgency. As these scenarios consider only sea level rise, they are considered to be conservative. Although the present results cannot replace detailed studies, the database and projections may assist Black Sea coastal managers and policy makers to rapidly identify beaches with increased risk of erosion, valuate accordingly coastal assets and infrastructure, estimate beach capacity for touristic development purposes, and rapidly assess direct and indirect costs and benefits of beach protection options. They also provide the necessary inputs to advance discussions relevant to the Black Sea ICZM.     

某厂周围居民汞污染健康风险评估研究

调查某厂环境汞污染致周围居民健康风险.通过对某厂周围环境介质及食物中汞含量进行测定,采用有阈化学物质健康风险评价模型,对周围2 km范围内居民健康风险进行评价.结果表明:某厂周围居民经呼吸道、消化道、皮肤汞的日均暴露量分别为0.5×10-4 mg/(kg·d)、9.35×10-5 mg/(kg·d)及2.04×10-6 mg/(kg·d),汞污染致当地居民健康风险处于可接受风险水平.某厂周围环境介质已受到一定程度的污染,但尚未影响到居民健康,由于汞的累积效应,某厂周围汞污染仍需引起关注.     

Biochemical and ecological similarities in marsh plants and diving animals

Higher plants which can survive flooding have certain ecological and biochemical similarities with diving reptiles, birds, and mammals. The ecological similarities arise from the fact that these wet-land plants and diving animals are all terrestrial organisms which have re-entered the aquatic habitat as a retreat or ecological refuge free from interference by dry-land species. To survive in the wet-land or aquatic habitat species of terrestrial origin have to restrict their metabolic rate in the absence of oxygen and exploit a wide range of metabolic products to aid proton disposal and avoid the dangers of cell toxicity due to the accumulation of an excessive oxygen debt. In some plants metabolic adaptation to anoxia (low oxygen supply) resembles that found in animal parasites. It is a striking example of metabolic co-evolution that the retreat of so many terrestrial species of both plants and animals back to the low-oxygen habitat has been made possible by the exploitation of similar biochemical control mechanisms and pathways.     

运城市乡村企业发展中的若干环境问题及控制对策

快速、蓬勃发展的乡村企业对繁荣乡村经济,改变乡村产业结构,促进与增加农村居民收入及提高农村居民生活质量发挥着十分重要的作用.但是,由于缺乏正确的引导和规划,许多已经发展起来的乡村企业在创造社会财富,促进农村经济发展的同时,对当地自然生态环境带来了很大的压力并且严重影响和制约着当地居民的生活质量与乡村企业及乡村经济的进一步发展与壮大.本文通过运城市乡村企业的污染调查,论述了运城市发展乡村企业所带来的环境污染与危害,分析了乡村企业污染产生的主要原因与症结,提出了加强和改进乡村企业环境污染控制的对策与措施,喻示了乡村企业与自然生态环境相协调共发展之必然.     

电子废物拆解地区人群头发中持久性卤代有机污染物(PHCs)的污染特征

本研究以头发作为指示人群持久性卤代有机污染物(PHCs)暴露的生物材料,分析了电子废物拆解工人、电子废物拆解区普通居民、农村对照区居民和城市对照区居民头发中的PHCs浓度水平及组成特征.结果发现:电子废物拆解工人和拆解区普通居民头发中的PHCs含量显著高于两组对照地区人群(p< 0.05),表明电子废物拆解活动造成了当地人群对PHCs较高的暴露剂量.在电子废物拆解区的普通居民中,人群头发中的PHCs含量具有随年龄的增加而上升的趋势,老年人组(> 60岁)头发中的PHCs含量最高.在电子废物污染地区和农村对照区人群中,PCBs是最主要的PHCs污染物(39%~52%),表明这两个地区的人群均受到电子废物拆解活动的影响;城市人群头发中则以PBDEs和DBDPE为主(共占69%),反映了珠三角地区人群主要受工业或生活活动PHCs排放的影响.同时,主成分分析显示,不同人群头发中PHCs的组成模式也与污染物在环境中的迁移有关.     

Plant species in arable field margins and road verges of central Norway

Plant species composition and species number were studied in two types of field margins: 31 arable field margins and 33 road verges. Both field margin types were adjacent to intensively managed grass or cereal fields. Effects of eight variables on field margin vegetation were studied. Despite having many plant species in common, composition and species number differed between the two field margin types, due to different ecological conditions and margin management. Arable field margins were composed of tall and/or nutrient demanding ubiquitous species and were characterised by species of later successional stages than those of road verges. The vegetation of road verges was lower and species numbers were higher than in arable field margins. The road verges contained several semi-natural meadow species that are declining in abundance. A CCA ordination of the field margins and the recorded variables showed that plant species composition was significantly affected by thickness of litter, slope, width, moisture level and type of crop in the adjacent field. Number of plant species was significantly higher in mown than unmown margins and generally higher in margins adjacent to fields with mainly grass production than in margins adjacent to fields with mainly cereal crops. In order to preserve botanical diversity in this agricultural landscape, the maintenance of regularly mown road verges should be prioritized.     

滨海地区畜禽养殖户污染防治意愿影响因素及其响应机理—以盐城市为例

养殖户污染防治意愿是采取畜禽养殖污染物处理方式的基础。明确滨海地区养殖户污染防治意愿的关键因素,辨析污染防治意愿形成机理,对制定有效政策有着重要意义。以盐城市为例,基于121份调查问卷,运用结构方程分析养殖户污染防治意愿的形成机制与影响机理。结果表明：（1）个体特征、社会影响及感知、养殖户健康风险感知对于污染防治意愿有直接正向影响;（2）个体特征对养殖户环境风险感知、健康风险感知有正向影响,与社会影响及感知有共变关系,并通过这些因素间接影响养殖户污染防治意愿;（3）养殖户健康风险感知是影响滨海地区畜禽养殖污染防治意愿最主要的因素,借助路径：养殖对于人体健康影响的感知→健康风险感知→养殖户污染防治意愿可以有效提高区域养殖污染防治。     

环境健康风险评价中我国居民呼吸速率暴露参数研究

呼吸速率是人体暴露和健康风险评价中的关键性暴露参数之一,然而迄今为止鲜见我国进行的系统调查研究和分析总结,以及公开发布能够代表我国居民的呼吸速率参数的报道,而通常是以引用美国发布的参数为主,导致评价结果的误差并增加了不确定性. 采用呼吸速率的能量估算方法,根据我国2004年大规模的膳食能量调查数据,计算了各类人群的呼吸速率参数. 结果表明:我国男、女性居民长期暴露的呼吸速率为4.7～13.9 m3/d;20～45岁男、女性居民轻、中、重3种活动强度下的呼吸速率为13.5～16.7 m3/d;2～5和6～17岁的城市居民呼吸速率分别比农村居民高15.8%和12.4%,而18～45和45岁以上的农村居民的呼吸速率分别比城市居民高3.9%和7.6%,城市和农村居民的呼吸速率存在差异;各年龄段长期暴露的日均呼吸速率是静息通气量的1.1～1.3倍,与相关文献的报道相符;如果直接引用美国的呼吸速率参数,将会造成2.6%～30.9%的误差.