Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China

China＇s increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution,but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China＇s primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China＇s transition to low-carbon development,three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO2 emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System（LEAP） model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product（GDP） growth rate of 6.45%,total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%,48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual（BaU）,Carbon Reduction（CR）and Integrated Low Carbon Economy（ILCE） scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 6.7 billion tons in 2009 to 9.5,11,11.6 and11.2 billion tons; 8.2,9.2,9.6 and 9 billion tons; 7.1,7.4,7.2 and 6.4 billion tons in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 under the BaU,CR and ILCE scenarios,respectively. Total CO2 emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050,compared with the BaU scenario.To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions,China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency,optimization of energy structure,deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.     

Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Life-cycle environmental and economic impacts of energy-crop fuel-chains: an integrated assessment of potential GHG avoidance in Ireland

This paper combines life-cycle analyses and economic analyses for Miscanthus and willow heat and electricity fuel-chains in Ireland. Displaced agricultural land-uses and conventional fuels were considered in fuel-chain permutations. Avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ranged from 7.7 to 35.2 t CO₂ eq. ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. Most fuel-chain permutations exhibited positive discounted financial returns, despite losses for particular entities at a farm-gate processed-biomass price of €100 t⁻¹ dry-matter. Attributing a value of €10 t⁻¹ CO₂ eq. to avoided GHG emissions, but subtracting financial returns associated with displaced fuel supplies, resulted in discounted annual national economic benefits (DANEBs) ranging from −457 to 1887€ ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. Extrapolating a plausible combination of fuel-chains up to a national indicative scenario resulted in GHG emission avoidance of 3.56 Mt CO₂ eq. a⁻¹ (5.2% of national emissions), a DANEB of 167 M€, and required 4.6% of national agricultural land area. As cost-effective national GHG avoidance options, Miscanthus and willow fuel-chains are robust to variation in yields and CO₂ price, and appear to represent an efficient land-use option (e.g. compared with liquid biofuel production). Policies promoting utilisation of these energy-crops could avoid unnecessary, and environmentally questionable, future purchase of carbon credits, as currently required for national Kyoto compliance.     

Carbon dioxide direct air capture for effective climate change mitigation based on renewable electricity: a new type of energy system sector coupling

Pathways for achieving the 1.5–2 °C global temperature moderation target imply a massive scaling of carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO₂ direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low-temperature solid-sorbent DAC are mainly heat at around 100 °C and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV)-dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO₂ DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/t_CO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO₂ removal as a new energy sector are drawn. Key options for a global climate change mitigation strategy are first an energy transition towards renewable energy and second NETs for achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.

     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

International inequality in CO2 emissions: A new factorial decomposition based on Kaya factors

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of inequality in the global distribution of CO₂ emissions across the regions considered by the International Energy Agency during the period 1990–2010. The inequality analysis is carried out using a factorial decomposition of the second Theil index of inequality. Specifically, based on Kaya factors, CO₂ emissions by active population are decomposed into four factors: carbon intensity of electricity production, electricity intensity of GDP, economic growth in terms of labour productivity and employment rate. The results show that global inequality in CO₂ emissions by active population declined by 22 percent between 1990 and 2010, where the economic growth in terms of labour productivity is the main item responsible for the whole inequality value. Then, a second decomposition by multiplying factors for analyzing the within- and the between-group inequality components is described. In relation to the study of inequality by population groups, it was found that the within-group inequality component had been the main contributor to the whole inequality during all the period. Finally, some economic policy implications are discussed.     

Detailed examination of the Greek electricity sector nitrogen oxides emissions for the period 1995–2002

The importance of energy in economic development has been globally recognised. A considerable electricity consumption increase has taken place in Greece since the country's incorporation in the European Union. Unfortunately, the electricity generation up to now is mainly based on fossil fuels. As a direct result of this policy, electricity generation is one of the main contributors to the Greek air pollutant emissions. The present work is focused on investigating in detail the corresponding nitrogen oxides emissions for the period 1995–2002. One of the most negative observations resulting from the presented analysis is that the undesirable NO_x emissions factors increase, mainly during the last 3 years of the period analysed. Moreover, annual NO_x emissions continue to increase, as a result of the noteworthy electricity consumption amplification registered during the concerned period. Therefore, local data were compared with similar information from the literature regarding other territories and then used accordingly to evaluate the Greek compliance with the existing EU decisions (e.g. Directive 2001/80/EC). Finally, considering that more than 90% of national electricity production is based on carbon containing fuels, further emissions of noxious nitrogen oxides increase is expected for the next decade, unless the appropriate abatement technologies are promptly applied.     

The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

Balancing of greenhouse gas emissions and economic efficiency for biogas-production through anaerobic co-fermentation of slurry with organic waste

Using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) for biogas production might contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation, but emissions linked with biogas production can reduce these beneficial effects. Therefore the emissions of NH₃, CH₄ and N₂O and costs caused by treating OFMSW by co-fermentation with slurry were calculated in detail from literature data, and strategies for reducing emissions were evaluated. Emission factors were calculated for single gases during storage and after application. The sensitivity of the calculations concerning the organic dry matter content of OFMSW, retention time and CH₄-yield was analyzed. The anaerobic co-fermentation of OFMSW increased biogas yields and contributed to the reduction of CO₂ emissions with 32 to 152 kg CO₂ t⁻¹ organic waste depending on application and storage techniques used for the fermentation residues. Considering a payment of 0.1 €/kWh for the electricity produced, the costs for utilization of OFMSW in slurry based biogas plants were calculated to range between 34 and 38 € t⁻¹. Measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by covering the fermentation residue stores proved to be more cost effective with 3–31 € t⁻¹ CO₂ compared to immediate harrowing or injecting the residues during field application.     

市政污水厂典型A2O工艺低碳运行的系统性评估

在“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标下，系统评估典型A²O工艺运行的碳排放当量及其组成，对我国市政污水厂的低碳运行具有重要的指导意义.以焦作市第一污水厂2020年的运行资料为研究案例，基于相关指南，引入水温因素构建阿伦尼乌斯公式模型用于核算直接碳排放过程，从电能消耗、药剂投加和污泥运输这3个方面核算间接碳排放过程.结果表明，CH₄和N₂O日排放强度为(115±56)kg·d^-1和(30±18)kg·d^-1;生化处理工段的能耗和药剂间接碳排放占比分别达到48.4%和51.3%; 2020年污水厂总计碳排放当量(以CO₂eq计)为2.17×10⁴t,单位污水碳排放当量(0.63±0.07)kg·m^-3;不同碳排放占比的大小顺序为：污水能耗(36.5%)>污水药剂(26.6%)>N₂O直接(15.4%)>污泥药剂(9.6%)>污泥能耗(6.7%)>CH₄直...     

Simulation of a 100-MW solar-powered thermo-chemical air separation system combined with an oxy-fuel power plant for bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

The combination of concentrated solar power–chemical looping air separation (CSP-CLAS) with an oxy-fuel combustion process for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture is a novel system to generate electricity from solar power and biomass while being able to store solar power efficiently. In this study, the computer program Advanced System for Process Engineering Plus (ASPEN Plus) was used to develop models to assess the process performance of such a process with manganese (Mn)-based oxygen carriers on alumina (Al₂O₃) support for a location in the region of Seville in Spain, using real solar beam irradiance and electricity demand data. It was shown that the utilisation of olive tree prunings (Olea europaea) as the fuel—an agricultural residue produced locally—results in negative CO₂ emissions (a net removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere). Furthermore, it was found that the process with an annual average electricity output of 18 MW would utilise 2.43% of Andalusia’s olive tree prunings, thereby capturing 260.5 k-tonnes of CO₂, annually. Drawbacks of the system are its relatively high complexity, a significant energy penalty in the CLAS process associated with the steam requirements for the loop-seal fluidisation, and the gas storage requirements. Nevertheless, the utilisation of agricultural residues is highly promising, and given the large quantities produced globally (~?4 billion tonnes/year), it is suggested that other novel processes tailored to these fuels should be investigated, under consideration of a future price on CO₂ emissions, integration potential with a likely electricity grid system, and based on the local conditions and real data.

     

A new post-Kyoto climate regime based on per-capita cumulative CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-emission rights—rationale,architecture and quantitative assessment of the implication for the CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-emissions from China,India and the Annex-I countries by 2050

Climate change is one of the most severe global problems in the 21st century. Main drivers are the combustion of fossil fuels, the emissions of industrial gases, emissions from agricultural sites and animal husbandry as well as deforestation. A new cooperative climate regime is necessary to meet the World’s energy and environmental problems against the background of China’s and India’s energy consumption growth. For the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, a successor regime has to be agreed on. The current approaches, however, have a common weakness. They at the same time (a) do not acknowledge the historical responsibilities of the industrialized countries for the historical greenhouse gas emissions and the responsibility of developing countries for a large fraction of the current future emissions, and (b) do not provide for a fair distribution of emission rights. Against this background, this article aims at forecasting China’s and India's CO₂-emissions up to 2050 and developing a new suggestion for a post Kyoto climate regime based on a cumulated per capita CO₂-emission rights taking the weaknesses of the currently discussed post Kyoto approaches into account.     

京津冀区域生产和消费CO2排放的时空特点分析

区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.     

Quantifying and managing regional greenhouse gas emissions：Waste sector of Daejeon, Korea

A credible accounting of national and regional inventories for the greenhouse gas （GHG） reduction has emerged as one of the most significant current discussions. This article assessed the regional GHG emissions by three categories of the waste sector in Daejeon Metropolitan City （DMC）, Korea, examined the potential for DMC to reduce GHG emission, and discussed the methodology modified from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Korea national guidelines. During the last five years, DMC＇s overall GHG emissions were 239 thousand tons C02 eq./year from eleven public environmental infrastructure facilities, with a population of 1.52 million. Of the three categories, solid waste treatment/disposal contributes 68%, whilst wastewater treatment and others contribute 22% and 10% respectively. Among GHG unit emissions per ton of waste treatment, the biggest contributor was waste incineration of 694 kg CO2 eq./ton, followed by waste disposal of 483 kg CO2 eq./ton, biological treatment of solid waste of 209 kg CO2 eq./ton, wastewater treatment of 0.241 kg CO2 eq./m3, and public water supplies of 0.067 kg CO2 eq./m3. Furthermore, it is suggested that the potential in reducing GHG emissions from landfill process can be as high as 47.5% by increasing landfill gas recovery up to 50%. Therefore, it is apparent that reduction strategies for the main contributors of GHG emissions should take precedence over minor contributors and lead to the best practice for managing GHGs abatement.     

青海湖东北岸天然草地CO2 通量变化特征

采用涡度相关法对青海湖东北岸地区草甸化草原生态系统的CO₂ 通量进行了观测,结果表明： 在生长季节(5~9 月),就日变化,08:00~19:00 为CO₂ 净吸收,20:00~07:00 为CO₂ 净排放,CO₂ 通量 净吸收峰值一般出现在12:00 时,7 月份12:00 时CO₂ 净吸收峰值为1.41 g·(m2·h)^-1;就月变化,7 月 是生长季CO₂ 净吸收最高月份,月CO₂ 净吸收量达到162.70 g·m^-2,整个生长季CO₂ 净吸收的总量达 468.07 g·m^-2。非生长季节(1~4 月及10~12 月),CO₂ 通量日变化振幅极小,最大CO₂ 净排放通量出现 在3 月,为0.29 g·(m2·h)^-1,除12 月和1 月各时段CO₂ 通量接近于零,其余月份各时段CO₂ 净排放在 0.02~0.29 g·(m2·h)^-1;3 月是全年CO₂ 净排放的最高月份,全月CO₂ 净排放量为72.33 g·m^-2,整个非生 长季CO₂ 净排放为319.78 g·m^-2。结果表明,无放牧条件下青海湖东北岸地区草甸化草原,全年CO₂ 净吸收量达148.30 g·m^-2,是显著的CO₂ 汇。     

Global Biomass Energy Potential

The intensive use of renewable energy is one of the options to stabilize CO₂atmospheric concentration at levels of 350 to 550ppm. A recent evaluation of the global potential of primary renewable energy carried out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sets a value of at least 2800EJ/yr, which is more than the most energy-intensive SRES scenario forecast for the world energy requirement up to the year 2100. Nevertheless, what is really important to quantify is the amount of final energy since the use of renewable sources may involve conversion efficiencies, from primary to final energy, different from the ones of conventional energy sources. In reality, IPCC does not provide a complete account of the final energy from renewables, but the text claims that using several available options to mitigate climate change, and renewables is only one of them, it is possible to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration at a low level. In this paper, we evaluate in detail biomass primary and final energy using sugarcane crop as a proxy, since it is one of the highest energy density forms of biomass, and through afforestation/reforestation using a model presented in IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). The conclusion is that the primary-energy potential for biomass has been under-evaluated by many authors and by IPCC, and this under-evaluation is even larger for final energy since sugarcane allows co-production of electricity and liquid fuel. Regarding forests we reproduce IPCC results for primary energy and calculate final energy. Sugarcane is a tropical crop and cannot be grown in all the land area forecasted for biomass energy plantation in the IPCC/TAR evaluation (i.e. 1280Mha). Nevertheless, there are large expanses of unexploited land, mainly in Latin America and Africa that are subject to warm weather and convenient rainfall. With the use of 143Mha of these lands it is possible to produce 164EJ/yr (1147GJ/hayr or 3.6W/m²on average) of primary energy and 90EJ/yr of final energy in the form of liquid fuel (alcohol) and electricity, using agricultural productivities near the best ones already achievable and biomass gasification technology. More remarkable is that these results can be obtained with the operation of 4,000 production units with unitary capacity similar to the largest currently in operation. These units should be spread over the tropical land area yielding a plantation density similar to the one presently observed in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, where alcohol and electricity have been commercialized in a cost-effective way for several years. Such an amount of final energy would be sufficiently large to fulfill all the expected global increase in oil demand, as well as in electricity consumption by 2030, assuming the energy demand of such sources continues to grow at the same pace observed over the last two decades. When sugarcane crops are combined with afforestation/reforestation it is possible to show that carbon emissions decline for some IPCC SRES scenarios by 2030, 2040 and 2050. Such energy alternatives significantly reduce CO₂emissions by displacing fossil fuels and promote sustainable development through the creation of millions of direct and indirect jobs. Also, it opens an opportunity for negative CO₂emissions when coupled with carbon dioxide capture and storage.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.