Institutional challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on policy action gaps in Uganda

Despite the considerable progress made in the last decade towards building governance systems for climate change adaptation in Africa, implementation still limits positive responses. This study applies an iterative process of field assessments and literature reviews across multiple governance levels and spatial scales to identify constraints to effective formulation and implementation of climate change related policies and strategies in Uganda. Data was collected through sex-segregated participatory vulnerability assessments with farming communities in Rakai district, policy document reviews, and interviews with policy actors at national and district levels. Findings reveal that the key challenges to effective policy implementation are diverse and cut across the policy development and implementation cycle. Policies are mainly developed by central government agencies; other actors are insufficiently involved while local communities are excluded. There is also a communication disconnect between national, district, and community levels. Coupled with limited technical capacity and finances, political interference, and absence of functional implementation structures across these levels, climate change adaptation becomes constrained. We propose strategies that enhance linkages between levels and actors, which will improve policy formulation, implementation and ultimately adaptation by smallholders.     

Citizen science for policy development: The case of koala management in South Australia

Citizen science involves the engagement of non-scientists in scientific research. Citizen science projects have been reported to be useful in policy development but there is little detail of how projects have contributed. The citizen science project, the Great Koala Count (GKC) collected ecological data about koalas and social data that have been used in the initial stages of the development of a South Australian Government koala management and conservation policy. After the GKC, we conducted an online survey of people who participated in the project and a control group. The survey focussed on opinions towards possible management options for koalas in South Australia. GKC participants were also asked about project-related changes in knowledge and opinions. We received 970 valid surveys and found some differences in opinions between GKC participants and the control group. Therefore, the GKC did not provide a representative sample of the entire South Australian population. However, we contend that the data from the citizen scientists are still valuable for policy development as it has been provided by people who are highly engaged in the topic (koala management in this case). It can be difficult to engage the public in the policy development process, and the citizen science project enabled the collection of a wide range of opinions, helping to discover and define relevant issues. Additionally, many people learnt about koalas and koala-related management issues, and some changed their opinions regarding koala management, also useful outcomes from the project in the policy development context. Our findings suggest that citizen science is useful for policy makers because projects provide the opportunity for dialogue with the people most interested in the topic of the project.     

Supporting local climate change adaptation: Where we are and where we need to go

Local governments are on the front line of efforts to address climate-related impacts. Recognizing this, there is a growing movement to develop and deliver tools, resources, and services to support local communities’ climate adaptation initiatives. There is, however, limited understanding of what specific types of resources exist and how well these resources match the needs of local practitioners. To bring clarity to these questions, we: 1) assessed the current landscape of climate-adaptation resources and services; 2) surveyed community practitioners to learn how well these resources align with their needs; and 3) convened leading service providers and local practitioners to identify strategic opportunities for moving the adaptation field forward. Findings demonstrate that existing services and resources are meeting the early phases of local adaptation efforts such as conducting vulnerability assessments and creating adaptation plans, but are failing to meet the needs associated with implementing, monitoring, and evaluating adaptation activities. Additionally, a lack of funding and staff time to support adaptation, as well as inaccessible resource formats are barriers impeding local climate adaptation efforts. The mismatch between the types and formats of services being provided and the needs of local governments means that more work is needed to ensure that climate adaptation resources are responsive to the existing and future needs of local governments. Moreover, our research finds that there is a strong and growing need to organize and streamline the climate adaptation resource and service landscape so that practitioners can easily, effectively, and efficiently access the resources they need to build more resilient local communities.     

气候变化综合评估工具——以密云水库供水项目为例

气候变化的影响导致发展投资的效率和效益产生风险,其潜在的影响会阻碍中国经济和社会的发展。论文开发了一个综合评估工具,旨在评估气候变化对工程项目的影响以及适应性措施的经济效益,并将这一分析框架运用密云水库水供给项目的评估。 结果显示未来气候变化情景下,密云水库水供给量将会受到极大影响。而收益-成本分析和多目标分析结果显示,采用水田改旱地、引滦入潮、污水处理等适应性措施,在技术上和经济上将是可行的。图4表3参22     

Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives

To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches.     

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.

从黑龙江省水稻种植面积的时空变化看人类对气候变化影响的适应

1951年以来 ,黑龙江省呈明显的变暖趋势 ,1980年代以来增温尤其明显 ,是全国变暖最显著的地区。对比发现 ,全省水稻种植面积增减的阶段性变化与温度变化阶段之间存在着良好的对应关系 ,但水稻种植面积变化略滞后于温度变化。1980年代中期以来全省水稻种植面积的显著增加 ,特别是北部地区种植面积的显著增加 ,是对1980年代以来显著增温的响应     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi,Tokyo, Japan

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km² sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7–0.9 °C and 2.8–2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25–41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.     

The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.     

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses.     

Making water policy work in the United Kingdom: A case study of practical approaches to strengthening complex,multi-tiered systems of water governance

We propose a suite of actions for strengthening water governance in contexts with complex, multi-tiered arrangements. In doing so, we focus on the collective water policies and approaches of the United Kingdom (UK), including those of devolved governments, which confront a host of serious water-related challenges—from massive flooding of urban areas and agricultural lands, to pressure on aquifers from rising water demand and drought. Further complexity in addressing these challenges has emerged in the wake of the June 2016 vote to leave the European Union (EU), so-called ‘Brexit’, and the ensuing ‘separation process’ with uncertainties for institutional and governance arrangements to follow. We make ten proposals for improving and reinvigorating water policy in complex, multi-layered situations, and comment specifically on their application in the UK setting. These are: put in place a system-wide water policy; fully embrace community-led nested river basin planning and management; fully fund river basin planning and management; re-focus the policy framing; use best-available data and information; create conversational spaces and become a more water-literate society; mobilise people; support and sustain core community networks; underpin river basin plans with regulatory provisions and effective monitoring and enforcement; and address systemic institutional amnesia. Individually and collectively, we contend that these actions will have a marked effect on transforming the planning and management of water resources. A system-wide water policy that maintains and builds on the substantive biophysical and socio-economic benefits delivered through implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive, together with the more recent Floods Directive, will galvanise stewardship of water in the UK. We urge more active engagement with and empowerment of the multiplicity of system ‘actors’, and highlight the role of non-government actors in a post-Brexit world as conduits for reaching out to and connecting directly with a wide range of water-related actors, especially across the EU. While attention to-date has focused on a plethora of specifically water-related projects, initiatives, plans and regulations, what is really needed is a systemic, long-term view of water resource management.     

Evaluation that counts: A review of climate change adaptation indicators & metrics using lessons from effective evaluation and science-practice interaction

Amid growing effort to move towards implementation of climate change adaptation, serious interest is emerging about how to use indicators and metrics (I&M) to evaluate adaptation success. Cities are among the leading experimenters developing I&M, but many other entities also view I&M as a tool for providing clarity and accountability about the goals and progress of adaptation. The current landscape of this work is scattered: I&M examples, frameworks, and guidance documents reflect motivations, contexts, and approaches as diverse as the field of adaptation itself. This study systematically surveys the “growth industry” of I&M, including a special focus on I&M approaches developed for cities anywhere and by US cities in particular. We classify these I&M efforts into four domains: those developed in academia, by program sponsors, boundary organizations, and on-the-ground implementers. With attention to theory on (program) evaluation and on science-practice interaction, we reveal a broad range of I&M evaluation purposes and collaboration practices. We conclude that evaluation of adaptation progress and effectiveness – if it is to usefully inform the work of cities or other implementers – would benefit from greater attention to the best practices and guidance offered in the related, but largely still separate, fields of evaluation and science-practice interaction.     

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

气候变化背景下城市应对极端降水的适应性方案研究——以西宁海绵城市试点区为例

气候变化将导致极端天气事件频率与强度的增加,城市迫切需要对未来的极端天气做出适应性反应.因此,为了找到应对未来暴雨极端天气的最佳适应性方案,明确不同方案对暴雨极端天气的缓解程度,本研究基于西宁市海绵城市试点区50年(1966—2015)的气象资料,利用Pearson-III概率分布和线性趋势估计法预测了该区未来50年的极端降水量,进而利用SWMM模型模拟未来50年极端降水条件下的城市内涝情况,并根据模拟结果提出基于低影响开发(LID)配置和管网改造的城市内涝适应方案.这些方案包括:局部布设LID措施、局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造、全局布设LID措施、全局布设LID措施结合满流管网改造.再次利用SWMM模型对这些方案进行模拟,并评价它们应对未来极端降水的能力.结果表明,全局布设LID措施和满流管网改造的效果最好,全局布设LID措施的效果和局部布设LID措施结合局部管网改造的效果相近.然而,管网改造无法有效储存和利用雨水资源,因此,全局布设LID措施将成为城市应对极端降雨的重要适应性方案.     

Community vulnerability to the health effects of climate change among indigenous populations in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study from Panaillo and Nuevo Progreso

This paper presents the results of an exploratory study working with two Amazonian communities in Peru to identify key climate-related health risks from the perspective of local residents, and characterize how these risks are experienced and managed. The work adopts a vulnerability-based approach and utilizes participatory methodologies to document and examine local perspectives on vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Thirty nine community members were engaged in participatory photography (photovoice), and rapid rural appraisal workshops were conducted with a total 40 participants. Contextual information was obtained from 34 semi-structured interviews with key informants and participant observation during fieldwork. Three climate-related health risks were identified by the communities as pressing issues (food insecurity, water insecurity, and vector-borne disease), all of which are climate-dependent and reported to be being affected by observed changes in climatic conditions. Sensitivity to these risks is high due to social and economic disadvantages which force people to live in suboptimal conditions, partake in dangerous activities, and engage in unhealthy behaviors. Traditional approaches to health and strong social networks are important in moderating health risks, but are placed under increasing stress in the context of local social and economic changes due to larger scale influences, including resource development, deforestation, and changing social relations.     

Volatile organic compound emissions from straw-amended agricultural soils and their relations to bacterial communities: A laboratory study

A laboratory study was conducted to investigate volatile organic compound(VOC) emissions from agricultural soil amended with wheat straw and their associations with bacterial communities for a period of 66 days under non-flooded and flooded conditions. The results indicated that ethene, propene, ethanol, i-propanol, 2-butanol, acetaldehyde, acetone,2-butanone, 2-pentanone and acetophenone were the 10 most abundant VOCs, making up over 90% of the total VOCs released under the two water conditions. The mean emission of total VOCs from the amended soils under the non-flooded condition(5924 ng C/(kg·hr)) was significantly higher than that under the flooded condition(2211 ng C/(kg·hr)). One "peak emission window" appeared at days 0–44 or 4–44, and over 95% of the VOC emissions occurred during the first month under the two water conditions. Bacterial community analysis using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis(DGGE) showed that a relative increase of Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and γ-Proteobacteria but a relative decrease of Acidobacteria with time were observed after straw amendments under the two water conditions. Cluster analysis revealed that the soil bacterial communities changed greatly with incubation time, which was in line with the variation of the VOC emissions over the experimental period. Most of the above top 10 VOCs correlated positively with the predominant bacterial species of Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and Verrucomicrobia but correlated negatively with the dominant bacterial species of Actinobacteria under the two water conditions. These results suggested that bacterial communities might play an important role in VOC emissions from straw-amended agricultural soils.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of vegetation change in agricultural landscapes: A case study of two brigalow (Acacia harpophylla) landscapes in Queensland, Australia

The majority of landscapes around the world have been modified or transformed by human activities to meet the needs of human societies. The loss of native vegetation for agricultural development affects the sustainability of growing proportion of the world's ecosystems. Factors such as land tenure, roads and agricultural intensification, together with biophysical properties, have been cited as drivers of deforestation. This paper combined analysis of the historical drivers of change with analysis of the trends of deforestation since 1945 in two brigalow landscapes (100,000 ha) in sub-tropical Australia. A selection of these drivers were then applied at a property-level (1000 ha) to test their influence on native vegetation retention. Regression trees were used to identify significant human drivers and biophysical properties, and then a generalised linear modelling approach was used to quantify the effect of these factors on the proportion of remnant native vegetation. Results showed that until the mid-20th century, government policies to intensify settlement did not result in increased agricultural production, but since this time, landscape change has been rapid, and has particularly affected ecosystems on fertile clay soils. Although socio-economic factors were critical in driving deforestation, after 60 years of agricultural intensification by far the most significant explanatory variable determining the proportion of native vegetation retained at a property scale was the suitability of the soil for agriculture. Property size was an important secondary influence. The results were not, by and large, consistent with other studies of landscape change and suggest that generalised principles explaining deforestation may be elusive. Solutions to the problem of over-clearance of native vegetation, therefore, need to be tailored to the specific regional situations encountered.     

Spatial and long-term variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting and the importance relative to water erosion: A case study from Belgium

The harvest of crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), leek (Allium porrum L.) and carrot (Daucus carota L.) causes soil loss from arable land because soil adhering to the crop and soil clods that failed to be separated by the harvesting machine, are exported from the field together with these harvested crops. These soil losses can be of the same order of magnitude as soil losses caused by water erosion processes, but are often neglected in soil erosion research. In this article we developed a methodology to investigate the spatial and long-term (1846–2004) variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting (SLCH) in Belgium and the spatial distribution of the importance of SLCH relative to soil losses caused by water erosion processes in Flanders. The study is based on long-term time series of soil tare data of crop processing factories and area and crop yield statistics. Until the middle of the 20th century, potato and roots and tubers grown as second crop, had the largest share in the SLCH-crop growing area in Belgium. Sugar beet gained importance from the end of the 19th century onwards and has now, of all SLCH crops, the largest growing area. We could estimate that, partly due to increasing crop yields and the mechanisation of the harvesting process, SLCH per hectare of cropland increased from 0.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 1846 to 2.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the 1970s and early 1980s. Since then mean annual soil losses decreased again to 1.8 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2004. It was assessed that total yearly SLCH in Belgium rose from more than 575,000 Mg in the middle of the 19th century to more than 1.7 × 10⁶ Mg in the 1970s and early 1980s, while current SLCH values are 1.4 × 10⁶ Mg. We estimated that since 1846, more than 163 × 10⁶ Mg soil was exported from cropland in Belgium through this erosion process, which corresponds to 109 hm³ or an average soil profile truncation of 1.15 cm. Average sediment export from cropland in Flanders was 3.7 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2002, of which 46% was due to SLCH and 54% was due to water erosion processes. The relative importance of SLCH varied, depending on the agricultural region, between 38% and 94%.