The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land-climate systems to assess how changes in electricity and land use, induced by climate change mitigation, impact on water demand under alternative socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and water policy assumptions (irrigation of bioenergy crops, cooling technologies for electricity generation). The impacts of climate change mitigation on cumulated global water demand across the century are highly uncertain, and depending on socioeconomic and water policy conditions, they range from a reduction of 15,000 km³ to an increase of more than 160,000 km³. The impact of irrigation of bioenergy crops is the most prominent factor, leading to significantly higher water requirements under climate change mitigation if bioenergy crops are irrigated. Differences in socioeconomic drivers and fossil fuel availability result in significant differences in electricity and bioenergy demands, in the associated electricity and primary energy mixes, and consequently in water demand. Economic affluence and abundance of fossil fuels aggravate pressures on water resources due to higher energy demand and greater deployment of water intensive technologies such as bioenergy and nuclear power. The evolution of future cooling systems is also identified as an important determinant of electricity water demand. Climate policy can result in a reduction of water demand if combined with policies on irrigation of bioenergy, and the deployment of non-water-intensive electricity sources and cooling types.     

城市空气质量数值预报模式系统及其应用

介绍了一种城市空气质量数值预报模式系统 ,该系统由气象模式 (中尺度气象模式MM5及城市大气边界层模式CBLM)和大气污染物输送扩散化学模式组成 .将模式系统应用于南京市 ,试预报结果同监测结果一致 ,表明模式具有较好的模拟性能 .模式系统试运行后的检验改进工作 ,气象资料、污染源及环境参数等质量的提高 ,预报结果检验方法的确定等都是模式系统业务化时应予以充分考虑的 .     

Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration

Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO₂ permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.

中国水泥工业CO2产生机理及减排途径研究

根据水泥生产的基本原理和工艺特点,推导出煤燃烧和石灰质原料煅烧时CO2排放因子分别为2.38 t·t-1和0.527 t·t-1;采用水泥工业CO2排放数学模型计算2001-2008年中国水泥工业CO2排放量,并分析了不同的生产技术水平和产品品种结构对CO2,排放量的影响.结果表明:中国水泥工业CO2排放量与单位产品的...     

沼泽湿地CO2、CH4、N2O排放对氮输入的响应

利用静态暗箱-气象色谱法，选取小叶章沼泽化草甸进行野外原位试验，研究氮输入对沼泽湿地CO2、CH4和N2O等3种温室气体排放的影响,结果表明：氮输入对沼泽湿地CO2和CH4排放有明显影响，其季节排放总量分别是对照处理的1.3和2.5倍，但对CO2和CH4的季节变化模式无明显影响；氮输入对N2O的排放强度和季节变化模式均有显著影响,CO2排放通量与5cm深土壤温度存在显著的正相关关系，与地表温度和1.5m气温存在指数关系，而CH4和N2O排放与温度之间没有显著的相关性．在20、100和500年时间尺度上氮输入处理的CH4和N2O全球增温潜势（GWP）分别比对照处理增加了150％、150％和80％，表明氮输入在长、短时间尺度上都是增强CH4和N2O的温室效应的。     

龙凤山站大气CO2浓度2种筛分方法对比研究

针对黑龙江龙凤山区域本底站2009年1月~2011年12月大气CO2在线观测数据,研究基于地面风、日变化等大气本底/非本底数据筛分方法(SWDV)和稳健局部近似回归大气本底/非本底数据筛分方法(REBS)在龙凤山区域本底站的适用性.研究表明:2种筛分方法在春、秋和冬季都能很好反映龙凤山大气CO2浓度的趋势变化及局地源汇对观测CO2浓度的影响,对于高浓度的非本底数据都能够较好的识别,但在夏季使用REBS方法会影响筛分的准确性,不建议在龙凤山区域本底站使用REBS筛分方法.SWDV和REBS法筛分出的本底数据分别占总数据量的30.7%和 58.9%.2种方法均筛分为本底浓度和非本底浓度的数据分别占总数据量的21.5%和32.0%.二者筛分的本底季平均浓度在春季相差最小为(0.1±0.3)×10-6(摩尔比,下同),冬季和秋季次之,在夏季相差最大为(4.2±1.0)×10-6.典型个例分析表明,SWDV法会将白天一些受西南污染气流影响的CO2浓度误筛分为本底浓度,REBS法会将个别在静稳天气条件下受局地影响大的CO2观测值误筛分为本底浓度.夏季局地污染状况可能被植被强烈的光合作用抵消,CO2浓度变化不大,使得REBS误筛分为本底浓度,以及对于一些较低的CO2浓度值,REBS误筛分为非本底浓度,这些因素导致2种筛分方法在夏季本底浓度差别较大.     

Contribution of winter fluxes to the annual CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions from freshwater marshes in the Sanjiang Plain

Introduction C arbon dioxide, m ethane and nitrous oxide play im portant roles in the radiation balance of the earth contributing to the greenhouse effect (Rodhe, 1990). N 2O also takes part in the destruction of stratospheric ozone (W ang, 1999). N atura…