区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价与风险管理

<正>随着社会经济的飞速发展,人类生存空间不断向山区扩展,使得近年滑坡等山地灾害的发生越来越频繁,人们越来越认识到防范和减轻滑坡等地质灾害对社会经济发展的重要性,迫切需要寻求对滑坡地质灾害进行更为有效地控制和管理的现实途径。而区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价是滑坡地质灾害风险评价和风险管理的基础,本文在这一领域做了有益的探讨,取得了以下主要成果:     

Providing the evidence base for environmental risk assessments of novel farm management practices

An environmental risk assessment of a new agricultural management practice depends upon the provision of empirical evidence of cause and effect. This will invariably be derived from comparative experiments testing the null hypothesis that a change in management will have no effect on an assessment endpoint (the metric on which policy decisions will be based). Crucial to the design of these experiments is the answer to the question of ‘what to measure?’. The selection of these measurement endpoints and the design of sampling protocols will be determined by the properties of the environmental stressors associated with the change in management practice and the taxa that are exposed to their effects, as well as logistic and financial considerations. The rationale for deciding what to measure in the context of these various criteria is reviewed. For a measurement endpoint to be a valid indicator of the risk of a negative impact of management on the assessment endpoint, a predictable and quantifiable link must be made between the two. It should also be recorded at the appropriate taxonomic resolution to safely assume that all the constituent parts will both respond in a similar way to the management stressor and have a similar effect on the assessment endpoint. Protocols must be designed with the spatial and temporal properties of the management stressor and the measurement endpoint in mind and a consideration of the statistical power of the experiment to detect changes. Where there is a lag in the response time of a measurement endpoint to a stressor due to inertia in the system, an accurate measurement of the effect of the novel management may require experiments running over several years. Throughout, care must be taken that the statistical and biological validity of a sampling regime is not compromised in the face of logistic and financial pressures. The Farm Scale Evaluations of the management of Genetically Modified Herbicide Tolerant crops are presented as a case study to illustrate the concepts discussed.     

产品生命周期可得性水足迹计算方法

水足迹方法试图量化评价人类活动对水资源可得性的影响,从而为水资源可持续利用提供科学的依据.水足迹的评价方法尚未统一,目前全球应用最为广泛的是WFN（water footprint network,水足迹协作网络）水足迹计算方法.基于LCA（life cycle assessment,生命周期评价）方法的基本框架,围绕水资源可得性的水量、水质和空间分布3个因素,在分析现有水足迹计算公式的基础上,指出了WFN水足迹计算方法的不足.根据国际水足迹标准（ISO 14046）的原则和要求,改进了WFN的水足迹计算公式,提出了产品生命周期WAF（water availability footprint,可得性水足迹）定义和评价方法,其中包括单元过程数据计算、背景过程数据处理和生命周期汇总.通过方法对比和案例研究得到:WAF方法统一了水消耗量与水污染量定义中的水质基准,可以明确区分水污染和水净化两类过程,还可以反映区域水资源稀缺程度的影响;采用WAF方法,在现有LCA数据库和软件的支持下可以更为规范地完成生命周期水足迹建模与计算但目前单元过程数据计算中各种污染物的基准浓度选取有不可避免的主观性,将直接影响到水足迹计算结果及其客观性,有待进一步研究.      

Local and Indigenous management of climate change risks to archaeological sites

Hundreds of thousands of significant archaeological and cultural heritage sites (cultural sites) along the coasts of every continent are threatened by sea level rise, and many will be destroyed. This wealth of artefacts and monuments testifies to human history, cosmology and identity. While cultural sites are especially important to local and Indigenous communities, a stall in coordinated global action means adaptation at a local scale is often unsupported. In response, this paper produces a practical climate change risk analysis methodology designed for independent, community-scale management of cultural sites. It builds on existing methods that prioritise sites most at risk from climate impacts, proposing a field survey that integrates an assessment of the relative cultural value of sites with assessment of exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts. The field survey also stands as a monitoring program and complements an assessment of organisational adaptive capacity. The preliminary field survey was tested by Indigenous land managers in remote northern Australia at midden and rock art sites threatened by sea level rise, extreme flood events and a range of non-climactic hazards. A participatory action research methodology—incorporating planning workshops, semi-structured interviews and participant observations—gave rise to significant modifications to the preliminary field survey as well as management prioritisation of 120 sites. The field survey is anticipated to have global application, particularly among marginalised and remote Indigenous communities. Well-planned and informed participation, with community control, monitoring and well-informed actions, will contribute significantly to coordinated global and regional adaptation strategies.     

Risk and Uncertainties,Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the "tails" of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced.     

Unruly pathogens: eliciting values for environmental risk in the context of heterogeneous expert knowledge

This paper examines some of the theoretical and methodological issues arising from the process of conceptualising and eliciting values for environmental risk in the context of heterogeneous expert knowledge. Drawing on the experience of a recent research project examining the relationship between livestock farming systems and microbial watercourse pollution the paper reflects critically upon efforts to develop an interdisciplinary assessment of the factors that may affect the loss of potential pathogens from agricultural land to water courses as the basis for targeting high risk fields and farms. The paper describes the procedures for designing the natural and cultural parameters that surround microbial risks and the issues that are raised for making whole system assessments workable based on contrasting and unstable systems of disciplinary insight. Situated within claims about the need for generating reliable and widely applicable assessments of environmental risk the paper suggests that interdisciplinary working raises important issues about the role of ‘uncertain’ knowledge in the management of ‘known’ risks.     

基于改进层次分析法的LNG气化站模糊综合评价

以某LNG气化站为例,从人、物、管理、环境4个方面考虑了影响LNG气化站安全的各个因素,建立了LNG气化站安全评价指标体系,利用改进的层次分析法确定权重集,并通过模糊运算求出评价结果。基于对运算结果的分析,针对LNG气化站各项安全指标,提出了相应的安全防范措施。     

区域水资源压力分析评价方法综述

区域水资源压力分析是区域水资源评价的重要环节和内容。明确水资源压力的概念、梳理水资源压力评价方法,是水资源压力研究及可持续水资源管理的重要前提。论文基于国内外水资源压力理论研究与实践进展,分析了水资源压力的内涵,介绍了水资源压力评价的常用方法,从计算原理、过程以及应用等方面对水资源压力评价方法进行了概述和对比分析。同时,基于国内外相关研究和应用需求,展望了未来水资源压力研究的方向和重点问题,提出应当增加对地表水与地下水耦合、水质与水量耦合以及季节性因素的衡量等。     

A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

装备环境适应性的定量化表征技术探讨

环境适应性的定量化表征技术对装备环境适应性的论证、考核、评价具有十分重要的意义,由于定量表征技术的复杂性,至今没有形成统一的方法。依据环境适应性的定义、内涵,将环境适应性定量表示为环境适应度,定义了环境适应度的概念,说明了环境适应度各计算参数的含义,并以算例的方式对环境适应度的计算进行了说明。     

土壤环境重金属污染风险的综合评价模型

综合考虑了土壤环境中重金属的总量富集污染及各重金属在土壤中不同赋存形态的生物有效性差异,将风险评估指数(RAC)嵌入地累积指数模型,建立了土壤环境重金属污染风险的综合评价模型。应用所建模型评价某典型污灌区土壤中各重金属污染的风险程度,通过分析评价结果以及和同类模型评价结果的对比,所建模型更全面、真实地表征了该区域土壤重金属污染的风险水平,为我国土壤资源管理和优先控制因子的选取提供了新思路。     

The reliability of evidence review methodology in environmental science and conservation

Given the proliferation of primary research articles, the importance of reliable environmental evidence reviews for informing policy and management decisions is increasing. Although conducting reviews is an efficient method of synthesising the fragmented primary evidence base, reviews that are of poor methodological reliability have the potential to misinform by not accurately reflecting the available evidence base. To assess the current value of evidence reviews for decision-making we appraised a systematic sample of articles published in early 2015 (N = 92) using the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Synthesis Assessment Tool (CEESAT). CEESAT assesses the methodology of policy-relevant evidence reviews according to elements important for objectivity, transparency and comprehensiveness. Overall, reviews performed poorly with a median score of 2.5/39 and a modal score of zero (range 0–30, mean 5.8), and low scores were ubiquitous across subject areas. In general, reviews that applied meta-analytical techniques achieved higher scores than narrative syntheses (median 18.3 and 2.0 respectively), as a result of the latter consistently failing to adequately report methodology or how conclusions were drawn. However, some narrative syntheses achieved high scores, illustrating that the reliability of reviews should be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Given the potential importance of reviews for informing management and policy, as well as research, it is vital that overall methodological reliability is improved. Although the increasing number of systematic reviews and meta-analyses highlight that some progress is being made, our findings suggest little or no improvement in the last decade. To motivate progress, we recommend that an annual assessment of the methodological reliability of evidence reviews be conducted. To better serve the environmental policy and management communities we identify a requirement for independent critical appraisal of review methodology thus enabling decision-makers to select reviews that are most likely to accurately reflect the evidence base.     

流域水生态安全评估方法

为建立合理的流域水生态安全评估指标体系,以流域为对象,对水生态安全内涵进行了阐释,并对流域水生态安全评估指标进行了系统分析.基于“压力、状态、功能、风险”四要素,构建了“目标层-方案层-要素层-指标层”的评估体系,其中方案层包括水生态压力、水生态状况、水生态功能和水生态风险4个方面,涵盖土地利用、水资源利用、污染物排放、栖息地状态、水生态质量、水产品供给、休闲娱乐、水环境净化、重金属风险等9个评估要素18个评估指标,并详尽表述了各评估指标的内涵及其计算方法.采用综合指数法计算ESI(生态安全指数),并根据ESI得分将水生态系统的安全评级分为安全(3.5≤ESI≤4.0)、较安全(2.5≤ESI<3.5)、一般(1.5≤ESI<2.5)、不安全(0.5≤ESI<1.5)和很不安全(0≤ESI<0.5)5个级别,构建了多指标的流域水生态安全评估方法.      

Developing new product service systems (PSS): methodologies and operational tools

The co-evolution of industrial production and social patterns calls for systemic solutions that can only be provided by partnerships between companies and other stakeholders, including final users. Such partnerships are defined as Solution Oriented Partnerships (or SOP). Product Service Systems (PSS) are the catalyser of such solutions. The capability of PSS to become an attractive solution depends on factors that are commonly considered to belong to the design domain. The role of designers is therefore essential to the definition of effective and attractive PSS. Designers are now urged to find their own methodological approach to the design of PSS. This paper addresses this need by proposing methods to define a map of the actors involved in PSS, methods to define requirements and structure of a PSS and methods to represent and blueprint a PSS.     

The need for attuned soil quality risk assessment for non-Western humans and ecosystems,exemplified by mining areas in South Africa

Worldwide, soils are under threat of deterioration and contamination due to anthropogenic activities. Whilst risk assessment of soils in Europe has been well studied, the same cannot be said of soils in Southern Africa. Soil screening values exist in SA, which enables soil quality assessment, but lack a clear risk-based scientific foundation and site-specific risk assessment. This is specified, in the light of the proximity of mine tailings disposal facilities to residential areas, exposing people to a wide range of possible contaminants. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of soil quality risk assessment with specific reference to European models, and to explore how these could be used in a Southern African context where soil quality risk assessment is a relatively new and insufficiently investigated field. Therefore, the attention in this paper is on typical non-Western conditions to which soil quality risk assessment has to be attuned.     

The Impact-Likelihood Matrix: A policy tool for behaviour prioritisation

The proliferation of applied behaviour change science over the past decade has provided new ways of thinking about policy making. Policy makers now have a range of frameworks and methods to assist in formulating change for social and environmental benefits. However, the development of strategies for the identification and prioritisation of target behaviours has been less forthcoming. This paper outlines a tool to assist in behaviour selection. Behaviours are assessed for their potential impact on addressing a specific issue, the likelihood of adoption by the target audience and existing participation levels within the target audience. Each of these characteristics is scored, allowing behaviours to be mapped onto a meaningful, visual, matrix for prioritisation. Additional data on behaviour type and the key perceived barriers to participation in each behaviour are layered onto the matrix to provide direction for intervention design. An application of the prioritisation matrix is presented within an environmental context through a case study of water demand management behaviours for domestic consumers in Australia. The prioritisation matrix could provide a decision-making tool for policy makers to assist in the selection of target behaviours to address complex issues.     

Rethinking the role of information in chemicals policy: implications for TSCA and REACH

This article analyses the role of different kinds of information for minimizing or eliminating the risks due to the production, use, and disposal of chemical substances and contrasts it with present and planned (informational) regulation in the United States and the European Union, respectively. Some commentators who are disillusioned with regulatory approaches have argued that informational tools should supplant mandatory regulatory measures unflatteringly described as “command and control.” Critics of this reformist view are concerned with the lack of technology-innovation forcing that results from informational policies alone. We argue that informational tools can be made more technology inducing – and thus more oriented towards environmental innovations – than they are under current practices, with or without complementary regulatory mechanisms, although a combination of approaches may yield the best results.The conventional approach to chemicals policy envisions a sequential process that includes three steps of (1) producing or collecting risk-relevant information, (2) performing a risk assessment or characterization, followed by (3) risk management practices, often driven by regulation. We argue that such a sequential process is too static, or linear, and spends too many resources on searching for, or generating information about present hazards, in comparison to searching for, and generating information related to safer alternatives which include input substitution, final product reformulation, and/or process changes. These pollution prevention or cleaner technology approaches are generally acknowledged to be superior to pollution control. We argue that the production of risk information necessary for risk assessment, on the one hand, and the search for safer alternatives on the other hand, should be approached simultaneously in two parallel quests. Overcoming deficits in hazard-related information and knowledge about risk reduction alternatives must take place in a more synchronized manner than is currently being practiced. This parallel approach blurs the alleged bright line between risk assessment and risk management, but reflects more closely how regulatory agencies actually approach the regulation of chemicals.These theoretical considerations are interpreted in the context of existing and planned informational tools in the United States and the European Union, respectively. The current political debate in the European Union concerned with reforming chemicals policy and implementing the REACH (Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals) system is focused on improving the production and assessment of risk information with regard to existing chemicals, although it also contains some interesting risk management elements. To some extent, REACH mirrors the approach taken in the United States under the Toxics Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976. TSCA turned out not to be effectively implemented and provides lessons that should be relevant to REACH. In this context, we discuss the opportunities and limits of existing and planned informational tools for achieving risk reduction.     

Evolving paradigms for landscape-scale renewable resource management in the United States

Patterns of selection and evolution of renewable resource management paradigms appear when strategies are considered across a temporal scale. The roles of renewable resource managers were established during the early twentieth century and have since evolved. Autocratic natural-science-based management (ANM) of renewable resources was institutionalized in the early twentieth century following the principle of management based on science with administrative decisions by professional agency employees. A more recent form of management paradigm is interactive natural-science-based management (INM) which provides for limited stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. These historic paradigms often inadequately addressed social and political aspects of renewable resource management leading managers to adopt new management paradigms involving communications and negotiations among stakeholders, not just science and administrative decisions. The inability of either ANM or INM paradigms to win uncontested agency and public acceptance, coupled with demands to increase spatial scales of management and public (stakeholder) involvement, is providing impetus for emergence of a new paradigm. The evolving paradigm can be defined as collaborative natural- and social-science-based management (CNSM) and provides a framework for approaching and finding solutions to landscape-scale problems. Successful evolution of this paradigm will require removing barriers to societal involvement in management decision-making institutionalized over the past century.     

LNG项目环境风险评价实例分析

环境风险评价是化工行业环境影响评价工作的重要组成部分。本文结合工程实例,目的在于为LNG项目环境风险评价提供一种思路,为类似工程的环境风险评价工作提供一定的经验。文中通过环境风险导则中要求的风险识别、源项分析、风险值计算、风险防范措施等方法,确定LNG项目罐区为重大危险源,主要风险事故类型为LNG储罐泄漏及火灾、爆炸事故,最后要求项目建设时必须采取有效的防范、减缓措施,制定突发性事故应急预案,强化安全管理。