Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.     

Adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa: factoring in AIDS

This paper addresses the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa, particularly as they impact on food security. An assessment was undertaken through a comprehensive literature review. Understanding the underlying causes of regional food insecurity inevitably means understanding the role of the AIDS epidemic and increasingly climate change amongst other stressors. AIDS cuts through household and community level capacity, as well as the capacity of key facilitators of the adaptation process including state extension services and civil society organisations. The main argument of the paper is that adaptation to climate change must explicitly factor in the existing and long-term effects of the epidemic. While calls for embracing adaptation abound, little is being done to assess and strengthen the organisational capacity of institutions, which should play leading roles in any attempt to help prepare for a changing climate. In particular the capacity of key agencies has been undermined by the AIDS epidemic. This reiterates the need for a multisectoral approach and building bridges between agriculture and health sectors to ensure longer term support to livelihoods where HIV and hunger coexist, often overlaid by climate change.     

Climate change policy and water resources in the EU and Spain. A closer look into the Water Framework Directive

Climate change effects are becoming evident worldwide, with serious regional and local impacts. The European Union (EU) has launched and developed initiatives and policies that scratch the surface of water resources impacts. This article presents an introduction of the existing environmental policy and more concisely in the areas of climate change and the interactions with water resources. It also addresses main management tools, and plans linked to policies, recent updates on the Science–Policy Interface, highlighting major results from research and development projects. Establishing appropriate policies to tackle climate change impacts on water is essential given the cross-sectorial and flowing nature and the importance of water in all environmental, social and economic sectors. There are still some pending reviews and updates in the current EU policy and its implementation, as well as at the national level in Spain. This article identifies existing gaps, and provides recommendations on how and where reforms could take place and be applied by decision makers in the water policy sector.     

国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展与启示

加强气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究,有助于旅游业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展。基于SCI/SSCI文献数据库,梳理分析国外气候变化对旅游业影响的定量研究进展。结果显示,30余年来国外主要采用指标方法、需求模型与选择分析方法开展相关研究。20世纪80年代末出现的指标方法是运用最早、最广泛的方法,主要用于旅游资源环境变化等研究,呈现由单项指标转向综合指标的应用趋势;20世纪90年代末兴起的需求模型主要用于天气状况对旅游需求的影响等研究,呈现由时间序列模型转向累计需求模型的应用趋势;21世纪兴起的选择分析主要用于气候变化背景下的行为意愿等研究,呈现由描述统计转向离散选择模型的应用趋势。这些给我国研究的启示是：在研究方法与研究领域上,重点加强累计需求模型在旅游流相关研究中的运用,加强离散选择模型在旅游市场结构相关研究中的运用,加强系统科学方法与大数据技术在相关研究中的运用;在研究对象上,丰富中国境内气候敏感型旅游活动的相关研究,加强“一带一路”沿线国家、地区及青藏高原的相关研究。     

Modeling of the Mendoza river watershed as a tool to study climate change impacts on water availability

Unmitigated anthropogenic climate change is set to exacerbate current stresses on water resources management and creates the need to develop strategies to face climate change impacts on water resources, especially in the long term. Insufficient information on possible impacts on water availability limits the organization and promotion of efforts to adapt and improve the resilience and efficiency of water systems. To document the potential impacts of climate change in the region of Mendoza, Argentina, we perform a hydrological modeling of the Mendoza River watershed using a SWAT model and project climate change scenarios to observe hydrological changes. The results show the impact of higher temperature on glaciers as river flow increases due to glacier melting; at the same time, runoff decreases as precipitation is reduced. Furthermore, the runoff timing is shifted and an earlier melting becomes more important in more pronounced climate change scenarios. Scenarios show a reduction in water availability that ranges between 1 and 10%. An additional scenario under stronger climate change conditions without glaciers data shows a reduction of the river flow by up to 11.8%. This scenario would correspond to a future situation in which glaciers have completely melted. These situations would imply a reduction in the water availability and the possibility of future unsatisfied water uses, in particular for irrigation, which received most of the available water in Mendoza, on which agricultural activities and regional economy depends.     

Gaps in provincial decision-maker’s perception and knowledge of climate change adaptation in China

The perspectives and knowledge of decision makers, especially those at the provincial level, have great impact on the progress of climate change adaptation in China. Therefore, identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing climate adaptation awareness of decision makers at that level is very important. Based on this aim, we conducted a survey of climate change adaptation awareness among 85 administrative and management personnel from governmental departments responsible for climate change adaptation planning in five provinces. Study findings revealed that over half of respondents have knowledge of climate change adaptation measures, but the extent of understanding varied across different adaptation aspects and regions. Among the different aspects, understanding of measures related to human health protection was the lowest. A large majority of respondents indicated an eagerness to obtain knowledge and information about climate change adaptation, but the main barrier is a lack of training and learning material. When making adaptation plans or policies, the greatest obstacle expressed was a funding shortage. Information generated from this study can provide direction and guidance for training and educating provincial decision makers in order to improve the levels of adaptation planning and policy making.     

Reporting marine climate change impacts: Lessons from the science-policy interface

Climate change science can trace its origins back to the early 19th Century although interest really took off in the 1980s, when public interest and research activity proliferated as the potential negative effects of global warming became clear. The impacts of climate change on the marine environment was receiving little attention at this time, but in recent years has started to “catch up” both in terms of research activity and public and policy interest. In the UK, the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) has played a key role in transferring the emerging evidence base on marine climate change impacts to decision makers through the development of climate change report cards. Since publishing its first card back in 2006, the MCCIP cards have become established as the principal source of marine climate change impacts evidence for policy makers in the UK, and similar approaches have been adopted elsewhere. Here we broadly describe how the climate change evidence base has evolved over time, with a focus on the marine evidence base, and the approach adopted in the UK by MCCIP to rapidly transfer this evidence to end users. The SIIRMS model developed by MCCIP to ensure integrity and independence in the scientific translation process is explored, along with wider lessons learnt along the way (e.g. about communicating uncertainty) and the impact MCCIP has had on informing decision making.     

Climate change adaptation in the Sahel

Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review.     

The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003–2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.     

Adapting to climate change: reducing water-related risks in Europe – EU policy and research considerations

Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle, e.g. leading to changes of precipitation patterns, have been observed over several decades. Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes hydrometeorological events (including floods and droughts) are likely to exacerbate different types of pressures on water resources with possible negative impacts on ecosystems and human health. In addition, sea-level rise is expected to extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease of freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. Furthermore, climate-related changes in water quantity and quality are expected to affect food availability, water access and utilisation, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, as well as the operation of water infrastructure (e.g. hydropower, flood defences, and irrigation systems). This paper serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy dealing with climate change impacts on water-related disasters. It provides a brief background about relevant EU water policies and examples of EU-funded research trends which illustrate on-going efforts to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycles at scales that are relevant to decision making (possibly linked to policy).     

大气气溶胶对气候与生态系统影响的综合评述

在广泛收集国内外有关大气气溶胶对气候与环境生态系统影响文献的基础上,对我国大气气溶胶的排放状况、大气气溶胶对气候系统直接和间接影响研究以及大气气溶胶的气候和生态环境效应等方面做了综合评估。      

不同气候类型下植物物候的影响因素综述

植物物候对气候变化非常敏感,可作为环境变化对植物生理活动影响的指示。植物物候的变化不仅可反映和预测全球环境的变化,还对地球物质循环和能量流动过程有着重要的影响。因此,结合植物生长背景,全面分析植物物候影响因素,探究植物物候对气候变化的响应是十分必要的。本文基于不同的气候类型下植物物候的研究,介绍了不同气候类型本身存在的气象、地域差异,总结不同气候类型下植物物候地域性特征;总结了热带亚热带气候、温带气候、寒带气候、高原山地气候4大类气候类型下植物物候变化及影响因素;讨论了当前物候研究的主要问题,并对未来研究进行了展望。综述表明,植物物候响应随气候类型呈现出不一致性,不同气候类型下影响植物物候的关键因素也不同。植物物候研究需结合植物生长环境,综合讨论相关影响因素。     

气候变化及人类活动对地表径流改变的贡献率及其量化方法研究进展

地表径流的变化受气候变化和人类活动的双重驱动力作用,定量评估气候变化及人类活动对地表径流变化的影响对水资源管理具有重大意义。论文以水文循环过程为主线,分过程阐述气候变化及人类活动影响地表径流发生变化的机制机理,对各种量化二者对地表径流变化贡献率的方法进行比较,然后分析全球部分流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化影响的差异。研究结果表明：1）气候变化和人类活动参与水文循环的各个过程之中,不同水文过程中气候变化和人类活动影响地表径流变化的途径不同;2）不同量化方法的适用范围和条件不同,不同方法对同一流域的研究结果可能不一致;3）全球不同流域间气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化贡献率存在明显区域差异。现阶段,综合多种突变检验方法有利于提高识别地表径流突变点的准确率;消除干扰因素（如气象水文等数据选取、模型方法参数设置和方法本身不确定性）有利于提高同一流域不同量化方法评估结果的一致性;如何更好地耦合基于物理的水文模型方法和基于数学的经验统计方法来量化二者对地表径流变化的贡献率是未来研究的重点。     

African voters indicate lack of support for climate change policies

Will African voters support climate change policies? By 2020, the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund intends to provide tens of billions of dollars per year to African nations to support climate adaptation and mitigation policies. It is widely assumed that African citizens will support implementation of these climate policies. We observe the opposite result. In this article – across two experimental studies – we find evidence that Sub-Saharan African politicians who commit to climate change policies may lose electoral support. Electorally important swing voters with weak party affiliations are least likely to support party statements about climate change. Interviews with standing elected officials from Malawi and South Africa corroborate our experimental findings. The combined results suggest voter preferences may hinder the successful implementation of climate change policy in Sub-Saharan African democracies.     

Response of the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi) to climate change in relation to its pest status, vectoring potential and function in a crop-vector-virus pathosystem

Global climate change threatens world food production via direct effects on plant growth and alterations to pest and pathogen prevalence and distribution. Complex relationships between host plant, pest, pathogen and environment create uncertainty particularly involving vector-borne diseases. We attempt to improve the understanding of the effects of climate change via a detailed review of one crop-vector-pathogen system.The bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, is a global pest of cereals and vector of yellow dwarf viruses that cause significant crop losses in cereals. R. padi exhibits both sexual and parthenogenetic reproduction, alternating between crops and other host plants. In Australia, only parthenogenesis occurs due to the absence of the primary host, thus the aphid continuously cycles from grasses to cereals, allowing for continuous virus acquisition and transmission.We have reviewed the potential impact of future climate projections on R. padi population dynamics, persistence, abundance, dispersal and migration events as well as the interactions between vector, virus, crop and environment, all of which are critical to the behaviour and development of the vector and its ability to transmit the virus. We identify a number of knowledge gaps that currently limit efforts to determine how this pathosystem will function in a future climate.     

漳卫河流域水文循环过程对气候变化的响应

气候变化对我国各地区水资源影响的时空格局变化,是气候变化影响评估的重要内容。论文以漳卫河为研究流域,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了1957-2001年的水文气象要素变化特征;基于数字高程模型、土地利用和土壤类型等资料,建立了SWAT分布式水文模型,验证了SWAT模型在该流域的适用性;根据IPCC第四次评估报告多模式结果,分析了IPCC SRES-A2、A1B、B1情景下21世纪降水、气温、径流、蒸发的响应过程。结果表明漳卫河流域未来2011-2099年降水量变化较基准期呈现出增加趋势,年平均气温较基准期也呈现出显著的上升趋势,各年代径流量较基准期将出现先减少后增大的态势。     

Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change

The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry.     

基于分布式水文模型的三峡库区污染负荷对气候变化的响应研究

在建立的耦合了污染负荷模拟模块的三峡水库分布式水文模型的基础上,结合多个全球气候模式的集合平均模拟结果,采用统计降尺度模型SDSM将全球气候模式和分布式水文模型耦合,评估了未来气候变化对三峡库区污染负荷的影响,考虑到研究中存在的不确定性,采用假设情景法,分析了三峡库区污染负荷对不同降水量变化的响应情况.结果表明,库区总氮和总磷负荷均与降水量成正相关,在降水量增加量相同的情况下,总氮负荷变化比总磷更剧烈,而在降水量减少量相同的情况下,总磷负荷变化比总氮更剧烈.另外,降水变化主要对三峡库区4—8月的污染负荷量有较大影响.     

Policy strategies to foster the resilience of mountain social-ecological systems under uncertain global change

Globalization and climate change threaten the sustained provision of essential ecosystem services (ES) for people living in and downstream of mountain regions. The increasing evidence of the many vulnerabilities of mountain social-ecological systems has highlighted the urgent need for policy-relevant research into ways of coping with these trends. In this context, resilience has been emerging as a concept for both understanding and managing the complex social-ecological systems in which ES are provided and consumed. Yet, literature on resilience of social-ecological systems is mainly theoretical with limited application in real-world mountain case studies. In this paper, we present a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the social-ecological resilience of a case study in the Swiss Alps under global change. We model and evaluate an indicator for resilience that shows the capacity of the mountain social-ecological system to provide a set of demanded ES. In a first step, we model the development of this indicator in different scenarios of global change. In a second step, we test the effect of a rich set of policy strategies under all these scenarios to identify types and timing of interventions that are robust under multiple global change settings. Results indicate that the resilience of the mountain social-ecological system is endangered in all scenarios, especially if strong globalization is assumed. Robust strategies that buffer the system against these pressures require early spatial planning action in combination with more targeted direct payments to support the current regional structure and traditional mountain farming practices. Such information is crucial to guide decision-making processes in the era of highly uncertain future global change.     

Climate change in the urban environment: Advancing,measuring and achieving resiliency

Climate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.