Expert opinions, fuzzy probabilities, and warnings: toward a mathematical method for evaluating warning “read and heed” effectiveness

In many situations, and particularly in legal matters, decisions may be based on whether some possibility is judged to be “more probable than not”, as for example, whether a warning, had it been present, would “more probably than not” have prevented an injury. The probability of a warning accomplishing its purpose of preventing injury can, in principle, be computed based on probability calculus. However, this paper proposes that: (1) such computations must use “fuzzy” probability statements which as a result produce a range of weighted possibilities for the final outcome and, moreover; (2) the critical statistic for determining whether the outcome is “more probable than not” is the median rather than the mean of the possible outcomes. This paper briefly outlines the mathematics for such computations and provides several examples. The paper basically treats fuzzy probabilities as standard “random variables” restricted to the range of [0,1].For brevity, this paper only treats the multiplication of two or more fuzzy probabilities. However, this is adequate for evaluation of a two stage “read and heed”, or of longer multiple step linear sequences and is indicative of the general approach. Treatment of the additive and general case will be found in later publications.     

Warning variables affecting personal protective equipment use

This paper describes two studies conducted to test selected warning variables for their influence on the use of personal protective equipment. Both of the studies were field demonstrations; one conducted in a recreational setting and the other as part of a consumer product scenario. Each of the studies involved manipulations that could be practically implemented in many warning situations. Both studies showed that cost strongly influenced the use of personal protective equipment. “Cost” was shown to include parameters of time and difficulty with obtaining the equipment. The results indicate that a small increase in cost can devastate equipment use rates. Additional factors that were shown to positively influence equipment use under at least some circumstances include: (1) the addition of “specific consequence” information, including accident frequency and severity data, to standard warning signs/labels; and (2) product labels requiring physical manipulation by the consumer for product use.     

What is most important for safety climate: The company belonging or the local working environment? – A study from the Norwegian offshore industry

Obtaining knowledge about factors affecting health, safety and environment (HSE) is of major interest to the petroleum industry, but there is currently a severe shortage of relevant studies. The aim of this study was to examine the relative influence of offshore installation (local working environment) and company belonging on employees’ opinions concerning occupational health and safety. We analyzed data from a safety climate survey answered by 4479 Norwegian offshore petroleum employees in 2005 on the dimensions “Safety prioritisation”, “Safety management and involvement”, “Safety versus production”, “Individual motivation”, “System comprehension” and “Competence” using one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), effect size and mixed model. The companies differed significantly for “Safety prioritisation”, “Safety versus production”, “Individual motivation”, “System comprehension” and “Competence”. The local offshore installation explained more of the safety climate than the company they were employed in or worked for did.     

Forward collision warning based on a driver model to increase drivers’ acceptance

Abstract

Objective: Systems that can warn the driver of a possible collision with a vulnerable road user (VRU) have significant safety benefits. However, incorrect warning times can have adverse effects on the driver. If the warning is too late, drivers might not be able to react; if the warning is too early, drivers can become annoyed and might turn off the system. Currently, there are no methods to determine the right timing for a warning to achieve high effectiveness and acceptance by the driver. This study aims to validate a driver model as the basis for selecting appropriate warning times. The timing of the forward collision warnings (FCWs) selected for the current study was based on the comfort boundary (CB) model developed during a previous project, which describes the moment a driver would brake. Drivers’ acceptance toward these warnings was analyzed. The present study was conducted as part of the European research project PROSPECT (“Proactive Safety for Pedestrians and Cyclists”).

Methods: Two warnings were selected: One inside the CB and one outside the CB. The scenario tested was a cyclist crossing scenario with time to arrival (TTA) of 4?s (it takes the cyclist 4?s to reach the intersection). The timing of the warning inside the CB was at a time to collision (TTC) of 2.6?s (asymptotic value of the model at TTA = 4?s) and the warning outside the CB was at TTC = 1.7?s (below the lower 95% value at TTA = 4?s). Thirty-one participants took part in the test track study (between-subjects design where warning time was the independent variable). Participants were informed that they could brake any moment after the warning was issued. After the experiment, participants completed an acceptance survey.

Results: Participants reacted faster to the warning outside the CB compared to the warning inside the CB. This confirms that the CB model represents the criticality felt by the driver. Participants also rated the warning inside the CB as more disturbing, and they had a higher acceptance of the system with the warning outside the CB. The above results confirm the possibility of developing wellsaccepted warnings based on driver models.

Conclusions: Similar to other studies’ results, drivers prefer warning times that compare with their driving behavior. It is important to consider that the study tested only one scenario. In addition, in this study, participants were aware of the appearance of the cyclist and the warning. A further investigation should be conducted to determine the acceptance of distracted drivers.     

Eye movement and reaction time measures of the effectiveness of caution signs

The effectiveness of various forms of caution signs was evaluated using saccadic eye movements and reaction time as the dependent variables. Both dependent measures show that caution signs requiring specific positive actions are processed more slowly and less efficiently than signs requiring avoidance behaviors. Additionally, the data show that changing the order of the “consequences” and “instructions” elements of the caution signs did not influence the number of saccades, the speed, or accuracy of interpretation. The research shows that saccadic eye movement may be an effective method for evaluating the design of caution signs.     

A risk-estimation methodological framework using quantitative assessment techniques and real accidents’ data: Application in an aluminum extrusion industry

The risk estimation presumably is the most crucial part of the entire procedure of assessing hazards/unsafe situations in the work, and especially in the industries’ and constructions’ worksites, where the working conditions are unstable. We can consider the risk as a quantity, which can be estimated and expressed by a mathematical relation, under the help of real accidents’ data. The aim of this work is quadruplicate: (a) the development, elaboration and explanation of two new quantitative risk-assessment techniques, (b) the improvement of specific points of other scientific works, as far as concerns quantitative risk estimation, (c) the application of these techniques on an industrial productive procedure (as a case study) and (d) the comparison of their outcome risk-estimation results. Particularly, we develop and analyze the theoretical background of the two techniques, which we call as “proportional technique” and “decision matrix technique”, and apply them on an aluminum extrusion industry's worksite, which is situated in Greece, by using real data of potential sources of hazards, recorded by safety managers, during the 5.5-year time period of 1999–2004. Comparing the results of the two quantitative risk-assessment techniques, we infer that they are compatible. Therefore, the most important hazard source in the aluminum industry is the “squeezing and hits by dropping objects (transported by derricks)”, and imposes that immediate suppressive measures must be taken place to abolish the danger source.     

Towards improved understanding of injury prevention program sustainability

As policy makers and funders have become more concerned with allocating scarce resources effectively, attention to the sustainability of health intervention programs has increased. However, the empirical knowledge base about factors facilitating or working against sustainability remains at an early stage. The aim of this study was to contribute to improved understanding of the conditions under which community-based injury prevention programs are most likely to attain sustainability. Ten Swedish community-based injury prevention programs were analysed with respect to factors that contribute to or detract from program sustainability. All the programs are integrated within existing municipality structures. Data were collected by means of semi-structured telephone interviews with key informants.The results suggested that different factors are interrelated, with no one factor being either primary or by itself sufficient for program sustainability. Financial, human, and relational resources lay the groundwork for the long-term operation of a program. The “integrated” program model appears to facilitate sustainability, but program intensity is vulnerable to changes in the financial status of the municipality and the priority-setting by municipality political decision makers. Sustainability may be compromised if a program becomes too dependent on a few key individuals. In contrast to financial, human, and relational resources, structural resources (e.g., injury surveillance and goals) appeared to have limited influence on sustainability. The programs were sustained with little evidence of effectiveness, resulting in limited feedback about how to improve a program in order to achieve and maintain long-term effectiveness.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

A theoretical and methodological framework for studying and modelling drivers’ mental representations

This article provides a synthetic overview of the research programme carried out at INRETS-LESCOT over the last 10 years, in view to studying and modelling the mental representations of car drivers. Theoretically, this research is in line with two complementary scientific traditions: Human Information Processing theories on the one hand, and theories of Operative Activity on the other. As discussed in Section 1 of the article, attention is given to the functional representations of drivers, constructed “by” and “for” the action, such as they are implemented in a driving situation, and taking into account both implicit and explicit dimensions. This aim directly impacts on the methodological approach implemented, in so far as it entails defining an “experimental continuum” ranging from naturalistic observations of the driving activity (on the open road), to setting up more controlled experimental protocols in order to permit in-depth, systematic and reproducible scientific investigations of drivers’ cognition. Section 2 of the article presents a synthetic view of these methods, while Section 3 presents several significant results obtained with them. Lastly, the final part of the article focuses on the computational formalism defined at INRETS-LESCOT (i.e. the driving schemas) designed to model driver knowledge and mental representations, and developed in a COgnitive Simulation MOdel of the DRIVEr called COSMODRIVE.     

Risk and system integrity concepts for safety-related control systems

This paper provides an overview of the concepts of “risk” and “safety-integrity” in relation to safety-related electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems. The paper is an abridged version of Annex A of the emerging International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard; “Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems”. Although based on Annex A, the authors have deviated in a few instances, from the strict wording of Annex A in order to more properly represent their own views. Where this occurs, a note in the text has been added to alert the reader of the deviation. The concepts of risk (including tolerable risk; safety integrity; safety-related system; System and Software Integrity Levels) are discussed.     

“Slippery” work surfaces: Towards a performance definition and quantitative coefficient of friction criteria

There have been 50 years of research in walking/working surface slipperiness and coefficient of friction (COF) measurements. Nevertheless, numerous standards address slip/fall accidents only in terms of requiring surfaces to be qualitatively “nonslippery.” The literature useful for establishing quantitative criteria for “slippery” vs. “slip-resistant” have been summarized here. A performance definition for “slippery work surfaces” is proposed. Recommendations applicable to standards-making organizations are made, including changing terms such as “non-slip” to “slip-resistant” and defining “slippery” in terms of quantitative COF values. For persons walking unloaded on level surfaces, a COF standard of 0.5 would be reasonable. Research is recommended to determine if “slip-resistance” requirements and accident prevention could be achieved more easily be controlling the type of shoe, type of task, or amount of surface contaminant rather than controlling only the COF of the basic surface and its coating.     

Effects of an integrated collision warning system on teenage driver behavior

IntroductionCrash warning systems have been shown to provide safety benefits, but no studies have examined how teenagers respond. This study sought to find out whether young, inexperienced drivers change behavior in response to warnings.MethodsForty 16–17 year-olds drove an instrumented vehicle equipped with a system that warned for lane departures and potential rear-end and lane change/merge crashes. Participants were randomly assigned to experimental or control groups, and their driving was monitored for 14 weeks during 2011–12. For the experimental group, this included a treatment period, when crash alerts were received by drivers, and baseline and post-treatment periods, when warnings were recorded but not received. The control group never received warnings. Data were analyzed to determine whether warnings were associated with changes in driving behavior.ResultsA total of 15,039 trips were analyzed. Lane drifts accounted for 73% of warnings. Forward collision warning rates doubled for all drivers during the treatment period and continued at an increased rate post-treatment. This was likely a result of the fact that, as time went on, all drivers spent more time following vehicles at close distances. Receiving alerts was associated with effects on following and lane-changing behavior, including more time spent following at close distances (17%), fewer lateral drifts (37%) and fewer unsignaled lane changes (80%). Receiving warnings wasn't associated with an increased likelihood of engaging in secondary tasks.ConclusionsWarning systems may result in improved lane-keeping and turn-signal behaviors by novice drivers, but there is some indication they may result in more close-following behaviors.Practical applicationsThere is some evidence that lane departure warning may improve turn-signal use for young drivers. While there is no evidence of safety benefits from the other types of warnings, there is some evidence of an increase in close-following behavior but no increase in secondary tasks due to the presence of those capabilities.     

Comprehension and hazard communication of three pictorial symbols designed for flight manual warnings

Military flight manuals contain three types of warnings; WARNING, CAUTION and NOTE messages convey personal injury or loss of life hazards, material damage hazards and essential information respectively. Effectiveness of these warning messages is crucial for flight safety. A way to enhance warning effectiveness is pairing warning messages with compatible symbols. However, no symbol was used with warning messages in current flight manuals. In this study, three pictorial symbols were designed for flight manual warnings. Comprehension and hazard perception of designed symbols were tested through matching test and psychometric rating, respectively, by Turkish military pilots. Results showed that comprehension and hazard perception of the symbols were sufficient and compatible with content of warning messages in flight manuals. It was concluded that accompanying warning messages with these symbols could contribute to effectiveness of flight manual warnings.     

The effect of habit as a behavioural response in risk reduction programmes

A company's decision to implement a risk reduction programme must take account of employees' behavioural responses to the target risk. Hazard reporting by train drivers is examined in semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire study. It is suggested that the behavioural response of drivers, in terms of writing a report, depends on how the hazard is perceived. The response to “trivial” and “routine” hazards is habitual non-reporting, being characterized by a lack of risk evaluation. However, hazards that are evaluated as posing a significant risk are reported. Possible ways of breaking habitual responses to hazards, using behavioural change programmes, are discussed, and it is argued that management commitment is essential for their success.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

Early impacts of alcoholic beverage warning labels: national study findings relevant to drinking and driving behavior

After November, 1989 Federal law required a standard health warning label on all alcoholic beverage containers sold for consumption in the U.S. Results are reported from a cross-sectional national household telephone interview survey of adults, occurring approximately 6 months after implementation of the warning labels (N=2000). Implications for health warnings with respect to information processing theory, the Health Belief Model, and other theories relevant to precaution adoption are briefly reviewed and two derivative hypotheses are tested using log-linear analysis. Relationships between various personal characteristics and (a) seeing the label and (b) recalling the driving impairment message are examined for consistency with theoretical expectations. We also examine associations between message recall, drinking style, and two precautionary behaviors undertaken to avoid drinking and driving. Adjusting for apparent false positives, approximately a quarter of the sample have noticed the label 6 months after its introduction; 16% recalled the specific driving impairment message. As hypothesized, exposure to the warning was predicted primarily by consumption pattern but also was associated with a personal salience factor, that is, ever having drunk alcohol so as to be at risk when driving. About a quarter of the heavy drinkers (5 drinks or more per occasion sometime and drinking at least weekly) who ever drank and drove saw the specific warning. Of two self-regulation strategies — limiting driving after drinking and limiting drinking when about to drive — the latter was the more prevalent. Both strategies were reported more by those who were heavy drinkers, those recalling the driving impairment message, and those perceiving driving after drinking to be very dangerous, than by other individuals.     

Filterability of oil sands tailings

In Canadian oil sands mining operations, bitumen is extracted from oil sands using the hot water extraction process, which produces tremendous amounts of tailings. Currently, these tailings are disposed of in large ponds, in which coarse particles settle out relatively quickly and fine particles remain suspended in water and settle very slowly. After years of settling, the fine particles form a stable suspension in water known as mature fine tailings (MFTs). Long-term storage of the MFT is costly and poses a major environmental liability.Oil sands companies are now actively investigating different approaches to replace or reduce the use of oil sands tailings ponds. Filtration of the tailings to produce “dry tailings” for stacking is now being investigated as an alternative by a number of companies. Fast water drainage is a critical step for the filtration process. In this paper, we use simple laboratory-scale filtration tests to evaluate the filterability of the oil sands tailings and to generate a parameter that can be used in filtration scale-up. It was found that the filterability of the original coarse oil sands tailings was relatively low. However, after the fines are flocculated with the coarse particles to form uniform flocs the filterability was improved by several orders of magnitude. The results demonstrate that filtration of the flocculated coarse tailings to produce the “dry” stackable tailings may be viable.     

Explicitness of consequence information in warnings

Four experiments were carried out to assess effects of product warning explicitness on purchase preferences and caution in use. Explicitness was defined as the specificity or detail with which potential injury consequences were described. All experiments employed a paradigm in which warnings varying in explicitness were described for familiar products. Subjects rated various perceptions of the products, purchase preferences, and intent to act cautiously in using the product. Results indicated that more explicit warnings were associated with greater levels of perceived dangerousness, hazard understanding, injury severity, and manufacturers' concern. While explicit warnings were also associated with an increased intent to act cautiously in using products, no clear relationship was found between explicitness and purchase preferences. It is recommended that product warnings should be explicit regarding injury consequences, especially where injuries may be severe. Given such information, product users, particularly those less familiar with a product, are more likely to exercise greater caution during use. Further, manufacturers' concern that explicit warnings may negatively impact sales appears to be unwarranted.