Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.     

A goal oriented indicator framework to support integrated assessment of new policies for agri-environmental systems

The goal oriented framework (GOF) for indicators has been developed as part of a comprehensive research project developing computerised tools for integrated assessment of the effects of new policies or technologies on agricultural systems (SEAMLESS-IF). The ambition has therefore been to create an indicator framework where the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development can be related to each other in a consistent way. Integrated assessment tools rely on such frameworks to capture and visualise trade-offs (antagonisms or synergies) among indicators between and within the three dimensions of sustainable development. The specific aims of this paper are to (i) present the GOF (ii) present how the GOF can be used to select indicators within the integrated assessment framework SEAMLESS-IF and (iii) discuss the advantages and limitations with the proposed approach. We show that the GOF has several advantages. Its major rewards are its relative simplicity and the possibility to link indicators to policy goals of each dimension of sustainability and thereby facilitate the comparison of the impacts of the new policy on the different dimensions. Another important feature of the GOF is its multi-scale perspective, which will enable the comparison of effects of a new policy between scales. Yet, as typical for all indicator frameworks, the GOF has also biases either instigated by the issues the included models cover or by the stakeholders’ selection of indicators. However, due to the way the GOF and its indicators are technically implemented in SEAMLESS-IF, it can easily be extended and include new indicators to increase and update its policy relevance.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling (RSM) methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool (VAT) for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S. demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias < 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.     

考虑面源污染的农业开发流域生态安全评价研究

随着农业开发的进程,流域生态安全会发生相应变化,在考虑面源污染的基础上,以挠力河为例开展该研究.该流域14年来的土地利用类型发生较大变迁,耕作方式改变,破坏了流域的生态安全,同时大量农药化肥的使用,使得大量氮、磷为主的营养污染物引发农业面源污染,面源污染将成为生态安全评价的一项重要指标.为了对农业面源污染进行量化,对生境质量进行直观评价,考虑面源污染做出流域生态安全的变化评估,选取SWAT模型和InVEST模型（生态系统服务和交易的综合评估模型）,同时考虑面源污染及生境质量,对比挠力河流域2000年、2006年、2014年三个年份的生态安全变化.根据输出结果,分析时空变化模式,得到氮磷负荷、生态环境质量对时空变化的响应,讨论提出有效的防控建议.     

基于RDBMS的海洋溢油生物资源损害评估空间数据库研究

为满足海洋溢油生物资源损害评估数据管理和共享的应用需求,提出构建基于关系数据库(RDBMS)的空间数据库.通过分析电子海图和评估模型数据中的矢量、栅格、时空等空间数据类型及其特征,探讨了RDBMS支持下的空间数据组织、压缩存储、维护管理的实现方法,并建立了基于空间数据库引擎的空间数据访问模式.应用实例表明,基于RDBM...     

A decision framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling of air quality at regional and local scale

Decision making in the field of air quality and greenhouses gases reductions can nowadays be supported by a clear overall framework and by computer tools that integrate the most relevant aspects of the problem. This approach is particularly important at local scale since new general rules on emission abatement at European level can only marginally modify the most critical hotspots and may be very costly. This paper adapts the general Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses (DPSIR) scheme proposed by the European Environment Agency to the specific case of local air quality policies and shows how the most recent scientific developments in impact evaluation and social acceptance can be integrated. The proposed decision framework represents a general methodology to design Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) systems aimed at the implementation of effective Air Quality Plans (AQP). An extensive survey across European countries shows the current degree of adoption of these approaches.     

Development of database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors for China

A database of real-world diesel vehicle emission factors, based on type and technology, has been developed following tests on more than 300 diesel vehicles in China using a portable emission measurement system. The database provides better understanding of diesel vehicle emissions under actual driving conditions. We found that although new regulations have reduced real-world emission levels of diesel trucks and buses significantly for most pollutants in China,NO_x emissions have been inadequately controlled by the current standards, especially for diesel buses, because of bad driving conditions in the real world. We also compared the emission factors in the database with those calculated by emission factor models and used in inventory studies. The emission factors derived from COPERT (Computer Programmer to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) and MOBILE may both underestimate real emission factors, whereas the updated COPERT and PART5 (Highway Vehicle Particulate Emission Modeling Software) models may overestimate emission factors in China. Real-world measurement results and emission factors used in recent emission inventory studies are inconsistent, which has led to inaccurate estimates of emissions from diesel trucks and buses over recent years. This suggests that emission factors derived from European or US-basedmodels will not truly represent real-world emissions in China. Therefore, it is useful and necessary to conduct systematic real-world measurements of vehicle emissions in China in order to obtain the optimum inputs for emission inventory models.     

双重差分模型在政策环境评价中的应用研究—以农业支持保护补贴政策为例

政策环境评价是环境影响评价体系的重要组成部分,开展其方法研究对政策环境评价制度完善及实践开展至关重要。双重差分（DID）是计量领域用于政策效果评估的主流方法之一,以农业支持保护补贴政策为例,采用多期DID评估该政策对农业面源污染的影响,探究DID在政策环境评价中的适用性。结果表明,DID在政策环境评价中具有较好的适用性,可用于政策实施后的环境影响评价和政策实施前相关政策的回顾性评价。未来应加强政策环境评价的技术方法研究,形成统一完善的技术方法体系,以促进政策环境评价制度的构建与实践的开展。研究发现,政策设计上环境利好的农业支持保护补贴政策在研究区域对农业面源控制的正向影响并不显著,甚至刺激农户施用更多农药,产生了负面影响。

     

农业文化遗产地“三产”融合度评价——以云南红河哈尼稻作梯田系统为例

工业化和城市化过程中,城乡经济差距日益拉大,农村衰落已成为城市化过程中各国面临的共同问题。2015年中央政府提出了“农村一二三产业融合发展”推动农村经济发展的政策,引起了众多学科研究者从不同角度开展研究,但相关研究多以理论探讨为主。农业文化遗产地作为一个以遗产保护为前提的特殊农村地区,如何推动一二三产业（下称“三产”）融合发展,如何量化“三产”融合度,研究尚待深入。基于对农业文化遗产特点、资源特征以及农业文化遗产保护要求等方面的分析,阐释了农业文化遗产地“三产”融合发展的概念和内涵,并构建了由产业融合度与劳动力融合度组成的农业文化遗产地“三产”融合度评价方法体系及具体核算方法。以云南红河哈尼稻作梯田系统十大片区所在的8个乡镇为对象进行评价,结果表明,产业融合度分项指数间越均衡则产业融合度越高;各乡镇分项指数和产业融合度的数值皆很小,有巨大的“三产”融合发展空间;新街镇一二三产业的劳动力融合度领先,其中第三产业贡献率最大;农业文化遗产地“三产”的产业融合与劳动力融合有较高的正相关性（r=0.67）,显著水平在10%以下（P=0.069<0.1）。推动“三产”融合发展可以有效促进农民在本地就业,对于保护农业文化遗产有着重要意义。     

A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

贫困退出背景下返贫脆弱性评价——融合区域与个体的新视角

精准识别返贫脆弱性,预防和化解返贫风险是“后扶贫时代”的工作重点。基于区域与个体尺度融合的新视角,运用BP神经网络法、熵值法和偏相关分析法对六盘山、秦巴山和大别山三大集中连片特困区进行返贫脆弱性评价与影响因素分析。研究发现：（1）三大集中连片特困区返贫脆弱度大致呈现由西向东递减的空间格局;（2）三个典型县区域和个体返贫脆弱性评价结果均显示古浪县>新县>栾川县;（3）高返贫风险县域中,高生态暴露度特征最为显著,而高返贫风险家庭中,生计动力不足特征最为明显;（4）区域返贫脆弱性主导因子为自然环境禀赋和经济发展水平,个体返贫脆弱性主导因子则为家庭劳动力综合素质、家庭收入、生计来源多样性、家庭成员健康状况和婚姻成本等。     

基于RS与GIS的区域生态环境质量综合评价研究——以山东省为例

利用ＲＳ和ＧＩＳ有关理论和技术，选择区域生态环境综合评价的指标体系，利用ＡＨＰ和Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ法确定其权重系数，构造了区域数字环境模型，对山东省生态环境质量进行了定量综合评价，并根据评价结果将山东省生态环境质量划分为五个级别，分析了存在的主要问题。     

突发性大气污染监测与预报技术集成移动平台

为应对突发性大气污染事故科学决策和规范处置的需要,在国家“863”课题“突发性大气污染事件模拟与风险控制技术”资助下,我国首个突发性大气污染监测与预报技术集成(IMF)移动平台研发成功.2010年7月5日至8月6日在北京市阳坊地区的综合外场实验表明, IMF移动平台从燃油燃烧事故监测至应急预案发布需时约5min.采用逐次偏差订正法,有效改进了气象预报场,实验中近地面黑碳预报最大浓度较合理.     

中国农产品贸易格局变化及海外农业资源利用对策

2017年中国大宗农产品虚拟耕地净进口量达到6784万hm²,对外依存度为33.4%,其中巴西和美国是主要的进口来源国。以大豆为重点的土地密集型农产品的大量进口,在一定程度上保证了中国粮食供给,但要从根本上保障中国粮食安全也应实施农业“走出去”战略。尽管近年中国海外农业投资逐年增加,但由于缺乏长远的投资战略指导,海外农产品资源的控制能力差,生产风险高。为此,为保障中国粮食安全,应从构建人类命运共同体、提高全球农产品供给能力的战略高度,选择最佳海外投资区域,优先开发中国进口量大、对外依存度高的国际大豆和棕榈油等油脂油料资源;扶持多类型企业主体参与海外农业资源开发;在农业投资目的国通过“订单+农户”模式进行深度合作,并融入全球农产品贸易体系。     

我国碳排放权交易机制试点地区的ETS管理效率评价

以我国7个碳排放权交易机制试点地区的碳交易体系(ETS)和19个地区模拟ETS的设计方案、调研数据为基础,采用C2GS2模型作为基本工具构建数据包络分析模型(DEA)对碳交易机制的管理效率进行评价.结果显示,在7个试点地区中,北京、广东、深圳和重庆ETS机制的管理效率为DEA有效;上海和天津ETS处于规模递增阶段,湖北处于规模递减阶段,通过其在有效生产前沿面上的“投影”提出调整方案.建议:ETS覆盖的碳排放量低于地区总排放量的50%;下调中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)的碳抵消比例;紧紧围绕机制所覆盖的企业特征,进行投入要素规模设计;惩罚机制必不可少,但惩罚力度需根据本地区ETS投入要素特点进行设计;对ETS的碳排放上限(减排率)不宜设计过紧,否则可能对地区经济可持续发展能力造成损害.     

基于随机-模糊耦合的污染场地健康风险评价及案例

采用模糊理论描述风险评价过程的模糊不确定性,采用概率理论描述随机不确定性,同时为解决模糊数计算过程复杂的问题,将模糊变量表示成均匀随机变量的函数,用Monte Carlo算法模拟模糊变量之间的函数运算,从而实现模糊-随机方法的耦合.为验证该模糊-随机耦合模型的有用性,选取青海某汞化工污染场地进行案例研究,通过与RBCA模型比较,验证了该模型的基本精度,且能较好地表征场地参数的不确定性对风险评价结果的影响.案例分析的结果表明:人群主要暴露途径为经口摄入,贡献率为80%左右;正常暴露情形下,该场地的健康风险水平为0.28,风险水平可以接受,最不利情况下的健康风险风险水平为1.28,最不利情况出现的概率小于等于1%;该场地对人群的健康风险随着时间减小,在第6年左右其风险减小至可接受水平,建议无需对场地开展污染治理,只需在污染物高峰段(第1~6年或第6~8年)为居民提供替代水源以截断暴露途径,待场地污染水平自然衰减.     

基于成本效益评估的县域自然保护地优化整合方案比较研究——以福建省泰宁县为例

在国家公园体制改革背景下,“建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系”对我国自然保护地优化整合提出了系列要求。福建省正在进行自然保护地优化整合,泰宁县是全省自然保护地交叉重叠最复杂的区域之一。以泰宁县为例,基于实地调研和专家意见,构建了三个优化整合的情景规划方案：（1）维持现状,不整合;（2）以泰宁国家地质公园为主体的整合;（3）以泰宁国家公园为主体的整合。基于对方案的成本效益比较,结果显示：方案3的存在和使用价值最高,成本持中;方案1的价值保护持中,成本最低;方案2价值最低,成本最高。研究为福建省县市尺度开展自然保护地优化整合提供思路和技术支持,亦为国内外自然保护地的边界优化提供参考。     

Uncertainties in integrated assessment modelling of abatement strategies: illustrations with the ASAM model

Following the signing of the Second Sulphur Protocol in 1994 under the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, preparations are now underway for a new multi-pollutant multi-effects protocol, under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE). A number of scientific models have been used to provide policy makers involved in these preparations with sound scientific information. These include the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model (ASAM). ASAM has recently been extended to cover abatement strategies for NH₃ and NOx as well as SO₂, in order to address the amelioration of acidification and eutrophication in the ECE region. It is important to be able to demonstrate that the scientific information provided to policy makers is robust to uncertainties, and hence there is a need for a thorough sensitivity analysis. In this study ASAM is used to demonstrate a large degree of robustness of derived abatement strategies to uncertainties in critical loads, meteorological data and cost information. This is based on a comparison of strategies at the same overall abatement cost. Systematic changes in data are shown to influence model results more profoundly than random changes.